Is Wiggins still the NBA draft's top prospect?
Chad Ford: Andrew Wiggins began the college season as the consensus No. 1 pick in the 2014 draft among NBA scouts and general managers. After an up-and-down start to his college career at Kansas, it looks like he'll end the season exactly where he began -- No. 1 on our Big Board.
Kevin Pelton: Wiggins isn't quite so high on my statistical draft board. While he's climbed in the past month, and could continue to rise with a strong NCAA tournament run, Wiggins'WARP projection (1.5 WARP per year) ranks him in the 20s. When the actual draft class takes shape, I expect he'll be somewhere in the early 10s -- not exactly a red flag, certainly, but also not the kind of dominant numbers we expected from a player touted as a generational prospect.
Do Wiggins' numbers underrate his overall ability?
Ford: Wiggins has all of the tools NBA scouts look for in an elite prospect. He possesses extraordinary athletic abilities. Wiggins will come into the league and be a top 5 percent athlete. He's an explosive leaper, has an amazingly quick second jump, has speed and superb lateral quickness. The NBA is loaded with great athletes and few could hold up to Wiggins.
He also has terrific size for his position. He's a 6-foot-8 small forward with a 7-foot wingspan. Very few wings possess his size, and it gives him a distinct advantage on both ends of the floor.
Wiggins also is an incredibly fluid player. The game is effortless to him. Whether he's playing offense or defense, he can make unique plays without breaking a sweat.
As a defender, Wiggins is already one of the best in college basketball. He uses his length and quickness to lock down opposing players. It's rare to see a college freshman get the nod from his coach to guard the other team's most potent offensive threat. Time and time again Wiggins has completely shut them down.
Pelton: Yeah, I think defense is the biggest area Wiggins' statistics sell him short. Though he's not a huge steals/blocks guy -- his rates in both categories are about average for a wing -- he has demonstrated the potential to be a stopper if that's what he wants to be at the NBA level. And that does apparently show up at the team level. According to Group Stats, the Jayhawks allow nine fewer points per 100 possessions with Wiggins on the floor. As noisy as plus-minus can be at the college level, that is better than teammate Joel Embiid(five points better per 100 possessions).
Matthew Holst/Getty ImagesAndrew Wiggins must improve his shot (44.9 percent from the field, 35.0 percent from 3-point range) to become an elite prospect.
Ford: Wiggins' offensive game is still more of a work in progress. He's a solid shooter, but far from elite. He is shooting roughly 35 percent on his 2-point jumpers this season as well as from 3-point range. He's gotten much better as the season has gone on getting to the rim, but he still tries to avoid contact, which often causes him to miss baskets at the rim. And while he has kept turnovers down, he needs to tighten his handle.
Most importantly, after getting knocked early in the season for being overly passive offensively, Wiggins has really started to take over in the second half of the season. He's taking more shots, attacking the rim and has played with much less fear.
Pelton: What troubles me is I don't see anything special about Wiggins' offensive stat line. Even with the recent outbursts, his usage rate and true shooting percentage (TS%) are both average from an NBA perspective. For example, Eric Gordon's translated performance as a freshman at Indiana was better in both categories.
Wiggins' 2-point percentage is particularly troublesome. His translation is 44.5 percent shooting in the NBA next season inside the arc; league average for a win is 48.2 percent. And I'm not sure where Wiggins is going to make that up, because his 3-point shooting is only adequate at this point and he doesn't get to the free throw line a ton.
What is an apt NBA comparison for Wiggins?
Ford: I think Wiggins has the most upside of any player in the draft. His physical gifts are unteachable. His defensive potential is off the charts and while his offense still needs polish, all of the weaknesses in his game are fixable.
I've been using the comp of a young Paul George all season.
Pelton: I'd consider George something of a realistic best-case scenario. There's a 91.8 similarity score between George when he entered the NBA draft as a sophomore and Wiggins now. Wiggins is certainly ahead of where George was as a freshman at Fresno State, and has the tools to make the same kind of impact at both ends, but at the same time George has made a nearly unprecedented leap to NBA superstar in the past five years. It's hard to expect Wiggins -- or anyone -- to develop as quickly.
I think the best comparison for Wiggins is a name I haven't heard yet: Luol Deng. Deng's translated usage and TS% from his lone season at Duke are nearly identical to Wiggins this season. They're also similar on the glass, and both are fine individual defenders. Deng comes out with the highest similarity to Wiggins (98.2) of any prospect in my database at the same age.
If Wiggins is really a more reliable second option than a transcendent superstar, should he be the No. 1 pick in this year's draft? That's the question one lucky team will have to answer during the next three months.