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Class of 2000

getting the squeeze

by Chad Ford

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Also Below: Is three a crowd in Orlando? | Is the Mailman running on empty? | Will Charles Oakley sink the Wizards? | Injuries taking their toll | Peep Show

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NBA scouts claim it takes five years before you really judge a draft class, but from the looks of things, it's taken only a couple of years for teams to start writing off the draft class of 2000. Not only have most of the players drafted in 2000 failed to live up to expectations, now it appears that teams, pressed by the looming luxury tax, are beginning to wash their hands of the whole thing.

Teams have until Oct. 30th to pick up their options on the fourth year of players drafted in 2000. If they don't, the players become unrestricted free agents next summer. Two season ago, 21 players from the draft class of 1998 had their options picked up by a team. Last season, 18 players from the class of 1999 were renewed. This season only nine players — Kenyon Martin, Darius Miles, Mike Miller, Keyon Dooling, Hidayet Turkoglu, Desmond Mason, Quentin Richardson, Morris Peterson and Jake Tsakalidis — have been picked up for year four.

Even more shocking, only four of the 13 lottery picks in 2000 have had their contracts extended. All 13 players drafted in the lottery of 1998 had their options picked up. Eleven of the 13 players drafted in the lottery of 1999 were extended.

What's going on? Talent has a lot to do with it. Lottery picks like Stromile Swift, Marcus Fizer, DerMarr Johnson, Chris Mihm, Joel Przybilla and Jerome Moiso have all disappointed. But there's a lot more to it than that. The main reason behind the lack of extensions lies with two familiar culprits — the salary cap and luxury tax.

With so many teams over the cap and facing a dollar-for-dollar tax at the end of the season, teams are now thinking twice about how long they should hold onto their fledgling assets. In this new era of fiscal responsibility, some teams value cap flexibility more than young prospects with plenty of upside.

The class of 2000 aren't the only victims. To date only three players from the class of 1999, Steve Francis, Baron Davis and Shawn Marion, have received extensions on their rookie contracts. It wasn't like they weren't worthy. All-Stars like Elton Brand and Wally Szczerbiak along with solid players like Andre Miller, Richard Hamilton, Jason Terry and Ron Artest have been unable to come to an agreement. By way of comparison, seven players from the class of 1998 received extensions last summer.

The new financial realities of the day simply have teams thinking twice before they throw away the cash. Take the Grizzlies' Swift for example.

Swift, the No. 2 pick in the draft in 2000, has had a pretty typical rookie career. Last season he showed flashes of greatness. He scored 31 points versus the Sonics late in the season and averaged a decent 15 ppg, 8.6 rpg and 2.7 bpg in the month of April. He shot 48 percent from the field during the season. He's long, athletic and just 21 years old. Given his age and upside, he looks like a lock on paper to get an extension. But the Grizzlies are seriously considering not picking up his option by the October deadline.

A number of factors play in the reasoning. The team already has two talented power forwards — Pau Gasol and rookie Drew Gooden — who it's higher on. There have been nagging questions since day one about Swift's work ethic and intensity. During the month of March, Swift averaged just 8.9 ppg and 3.9 rpg and didn't appear to give the effort the Grizzlies were looking for. He skipped Pete Newell's big man camp two summers ago and the rumor is that new team president Jerry West isn't impressed.

But the biggest reason behind the team's indecision is Swift's salary next season. If the Grizzlies pick up his option now, he'll make $4,592,418 next season. Would Swift really command that on the open market? With the mid-level exception expected to rise to close to $5 million next season, the Grizzlies face a tough financial decision on Swift. The team is trying to rein in its spending and likely will have to choose between another year of Swift or bringing in a player in the mid-level market next season.

If you're the Grizzlies, you have to believe that the addition of West will allow the team to be a player in next year's free-agent market. The free-agent class next season is one of the strongest in years and only five or six teams will have significant cap room. In other words, the Grizzlies should be able to get their hands on a pretty good player next summer if they let Swift slip away.

That's why talk of a Swift-for-Mike Miller swap has gained some momentum again. The Grizzlies think Miller is a better fit and the Magic are in desperate need of some young, athletic low-post players. The Magic are reluctant to pull the trigger until they know for sure whether Grant Hill's ankle will hold up this season, but the offer is tempting. Trading Miller for Swift and then not extending Swift's contract would allow the team to clear between seven and nine million in cap space next season. That may not be enough to lure Tim Duncan, but it's definitely enough change to land a top-flight free agent.

Swift isn't the only one feeling the crunch. If the Bucks decide to match the Mavs' offer for restricted free agent Michael Redd, Przybilla may be looking for work next season. Signing Redd would put the Bucks in a serious luxury-tax mess. Declining their option on Przybilla could save owner Herb Kohl almost $5 million in 2003.

The Bulls keep adding forwards, which doesn't bode well for Marcus Fizer's future. While the team still claims that it can see him playing a sixth man role similar to Corliss Williamson, Fizer's frustration with his limited minutes and his possible $3.7 million salary next season could spell trouble.

Johnson, who is recovering from a serious car accident, is also in danger. The Hawks are pressed right up against the luxury tax next season. Passing on Johnson could save them over $6 million next season.

The Wizards also have an interesting situation with Etan Thomas. Thomas has missed most of the last two seasons with injuries. The Wizards are high enough on him that there's talk he may be the starting power forward this season. But will the Wizards exercise their $2.2 million option for next season? If the team declines, it's possible that the Wizards could get between $16 and $18 million under the cap next year (assuming they don't pick up their options on Chris Whitney and Bryon Russell next summer).

Although giving Thomas $2.2 million wouldn't seem to put a big dent into their cap space, it could. If the Wizards decide to re-sign Jerry Stackhouse (who's expected to opt out of his contract at the end of the season), the Wizards could probably pay him a contract starting at $9 million a season and still have between $7 and $9 million (depending on where the cap falls) to pursue a top free agent. Thomas' salary would likely take them just out of the range that the Wizards want to be in.

Of course, the Lakers can explain the downside of not picking up a player's option. They declined to pick up Devean George's contract last fall and paid dearly for it this summer. By not picking up George's option, the Lakers lost their Bird Rights for George, meaning that because they were over the cap, they had to use their mid-level exception to re-sign him. Because George had a solid postseason in L.A., his stock sky rocketed. Had the Lakers exercised their option on George, they would have paid him roughly $1.5 million this year and would have been able to use their full mid-level exception to lure someone like Keon Clark. Instead, the Lakers had to give George their full-mid level exception and will pay him a starting salary of $4 million this season.

That horror story will be enough to convince some teams to give their guy one more year. In all likelihood, Fizer, Mihm, Jamal Crawford, Courtney Alexander, Jamaal Magloire, Speedy Claxton, Donnell Harvey and DeShawn Stevenson will get their extensions before the deadline. But for players like Swift, Johnson, Przybilla, Moiso, Mateen Cleaves and Jason Collier, it could be a cruel summer next year.

Is three a crowd in Orlando?

Speaking of those Stromile Swift-for-Mike Miller rumors, Magic coach Doc Rivers is learning that there really can be too much of a good thing.

With Grant Hill, Tracy McGrady and Miller all healthy, Rivers is still trying to figure out how to get them to play together.

"The problem with their egos is they're ego-less," Rivers told the Orlando Sentinel. "It seems like they're trying to get out of the way of the other guy instead of just playing."

Things could be worse for Rivers, everyone could be complaining about their minutes or touches. But after their opening preseason debacle, Rivers knows things have to change.

"When I put all three of them on the floor, Tracy didn't want to take over because he thought Grant was going to take over," Rivers said. "Grant didn't want to take over because he thought Mike was going to take over."

Obviously the bigger problem for the Magic lies in the post. A combination of Andrew DeClerq, Olumide Oyedeji and Shawn Kemp combined for just 12 points and 6 rebounds on Tuesday versus the Hawks. Meanwhile, the Hawks' frontline of Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Theo Ratliff, Nazr Mohammed and Alan Henderson combined for 41 points and 13 boards.

The Magic aren't going to win many games with those numbers.

Still, talks between the Grizzlies and Magic are going slow, and one league source claimed that if anything did happen, it would take awhile. The Magic have to be sure that Hill is 100 percent before pulling the trigger.

Magic betting on 3 of a kind

Jerry Brewer / Orlando Sentinel

Is the Mailman running on empty?

Karl Malone claims he showed up to training camp this summer in the best shape of his life. So why is Malone exhausted?

"There's a difference in being in shape, and being in game shape," Malone told the Salt Lake Tribune. "You can work on your body all summer, but there's still stopping and starting, cutting, the physical stuff. No matter what you do, you still get sore from doing training camp stuff."

Malone, who is now 39, says his body needs more breaks than it used to.

"I'm not 25 anymore, so there's definitely a difference," Malone said. "Sometimes I feel like I'm 39."

Malone Adjusting Game

Phil Miller / Salt Lake Tribune

Will Charles Oakley sink the Wizards?

Michael Jordan wants to win now, which explains the Wizards' radical face lift this summer. But what shape will the team be in when Jordan retires at the end of the season?

The latest out of D.C. has the Wizards on the verge of signing veteran Charles Oakley to a one-year deal for the veteran's minimum. While Oakley's contract won't hurt the team, you only have to look to Chicago to see the effect he had on the development of the Bulls' young power forwards. Oakley's playing time seriously cut into Marcus Fizer and Tyson Chandler's minutes last season. Once the season was beyond hope, Oakley was forced to stew on the bench while Fizer and Chandler stumbled their way through the season.

The Wizards aren't after Oakley to anchor the bench. Their two young power forwards, Kwame Brown and Etan Thomas, are raw and Jordan knows that when you combine them with second-year center Brendan Haywood, the Wizards are going to have some serious frontcourt issues this season.

While he may not start, the only rationale behind adding Oakley is to give him serious minutes in an effort to stabilize the frontline. But with Brown and Thomas both fighting for minutes, the addition of Oakley is probably another step back in the Wizards' on-again, off-again youth movement.

The addition of Jerry Stackhouse and Bryon Russell were the first two blows. Stackhouse cost the team up-and-coming swingman Richard Hamilton and Russell's signing virtually guarantees that rookie Jared Jeffries won't see the light of day this season.

That's fine if Stack, Russell, Oakley and Jordan were the long-term answers for the Wizards. But in all likelihood, all four players will be done at the end of the season. Will Brown, Thomas and Jeffries be able to fill the void? Not without the playing time.

Wizards Will Sign Oakley Soon

Steve Wyche / Washington Post

Injuries taking their toll

There was a little bit of good news and a lot more bad news on the NBA injury front Wednesday.

First the good stuff. Allen Iverson played in practice Wednesday just five days after fracturing the third finger on his right hand. Doctors had told him that he would be out two to four weeks with the injury.

"It all depends on how well your body heals, and I don't think a doctor can tell you an exact time you will be back," Iverson told the Philadelphia Daily News. "Some guys heal fast and some slow, and I knew I wasn't going to be out as long as they said."

Coach Larry Brown wasn't surprised. "I watched two days ago and he was shooting it, and you know he heals quickly and wants to be out there."

The news wasn't as good in Minnesota and Phoenix. All-Star guard Wally Szczerbiak is now expected to miss up to two weeks with a dislocated pinkie toe. He joins starters Terrell Brandon and Joe Smith in the infirmary.

"This was just a freaky thing, jamming my foot into the side of my shoe," Szczerbiak told the Minneapolis Star Tribune. "[The toe] came out real quick and then popped back in. It's really swollen and black-and-blue."

Suns point guard Stephon Marbury left the team Wednesday to visit a foot specialist in New York about recurring pain in his left ankle. Marbury's departure aggravated coach Frank Johnson.

"That's something we have to deal with," Johnson told the Arizona Republic. "Am I unhappy? I'm surprised that he's not here, I'll say that."

Marbury's left ankle bothered him much of last season, but he played in all 82 regular-season games. Marbury underwent arthroscopic surgery on both ankles at the conclusion of last season and recently said he was healthy.

No one, however, is worse off than the Clippers, who are down to nine healthy players and just two healthy starters.

"We're having a nine-man practice," coach Gentry told the O.C Register. "Everybody's banged up." Andre Miller, Eric Piatkowski and Corey Maggette are the only Clipper regulars who are healthy.

Michael Olowokandi, Lamar Odom, Elton Brand, Quentin Richardson, Bryant Stith, Keyon Dooling, Chris Wilcox, Melvin Ely and Marko Jaric all are out for tonight's game.

"It's getting frustrating," Gentry said, "because I see the potential of our team. But we're not getting anything done."

With finger healing, Iverson returns to the court

Marc Narducci / Philadelphia Inquirer

Wolves' Szczerbiak may miss up to two weeks

Steve Aschburner / Minneapolis Star-Tribune

Marbury's ankle again a concern

Bob Young / Arizona Republic

Clippers down to nine players

Art Thompson III / Orange County Register

Peep Show

Pistons: Cliff Robinson approached coach Rick Carlisle before the start of training camp and said he would be willing to come off the bench if it would allow center Zeljko Rebraca to flourish. "I am all about winning," Robinson told the Detroit News. "I think earlier in my career, something like this would have affected me more. But I know what I am capable of doing as a starter or as a guy coming off the bench. If we can get more out of Z as a starter, then I am all for that." Carlisle was floored. "I just think this is a great example of a guy showing what he really stands for," Carlisle said. "When you factor in his contract situation [final year], his age [35] and what he's done in this league, his willingness to make this kind of concession is a major statement not only to the world but to our team."

Knicks: Coach Don Chaney said his team had a glaring leadership void. "We didn't have any," Chaney told the N.Y. Post. "We need them, and we didn't have them. To me, a leader is a guy who consistently leads, not every once in awhile. I think every player on this team was capable of leading, because they did it every once in awhile." The Knicks players disagreed, claiming that Latrell Sprewell was their leader. "Sprewell was the one who was speaking out in the locker room. He did a great job, and if he were here he'd be our leader, he'd be speaking up," said Kurt Thomas.

Pacers: How deep is Indiana this season? Even Jermaine O'Neal is wondering about playing time. "As a player, obviously, you want to be out there," O'Neal told the Indianapolis Star. "But the nature of our team won't allow for that all the time. There may be games when I may not be out there on the court. I mean, we're that deep. Amazing."

Sonics: Coach Nate McMillan claims that Jerome James worked out too much this offseason. James, who put on 10 pounds of muscle in an attempt to bulk up for his encounters against Shaq, is a little too big. "We had a positive father-son conversation, and I told him I felt I needed to get stronger to compete against L.A., so I pumped iron all summer long," James told the Seattle Times "But like Coach said, we only play the Lakers four times. I've gotta be faster, so I need to drop a few pounds. All I need to do is stop lifting and the weight will fall off."

Celtics: The team is still buzzing about Kedrick Brown's performance on Tuesday. Now it's up to coach Jim O'Brien to help Brown make the most of the talent. "I would say this is a similar thing to Paul being a rookie," O'Brien told the Boston Herald. "Kedrick is a kind of player who, ideally, we would like him to impact every play -- even if he's not guarding the ball or even if he doesn't have the ball in his hands from an offensive standpoint. . . . He can impact so much because of how talented he is, but sometimes he has a little bit of a tendency to get lost, meaning he knows exactly what's going on but he'll drift through certain segments of the game. And we'd prefer him not to do that."

Bulls: Jamal Crawford and Marcus Fizer have different attitudes about their new roles on the team. Crawford still won't concede the starting point guard job to rookie Jay Williams despite all the signs pointing in Williams' direction. "I was the starter last season, and I don't plan on taking a step back," Crawford told the Chicago Sun Times. Fizer is trying to find a niche the way Corliss Williamson did in Detroit last season. "I'm not setting goals for sixth man of the year," Fizer told the Chicago Tribune. "That's all individual accolades. I'm ready to see this team contend for something. I'm tired of being associated with the bottom teams in the league. I aspire to win. I don't care if I start the game or come off the bench. I want to be in the game when the clock runs out. That's when games matter."

Warriors: It looks like Troy Murphy's starting gig at power forward may become a permanent thing. "We've been evaluating the situation from Day 1," coach Eric Musselman told the Contra Costa Times. "We told the guys we'd have an open mind and that everything was starting with a clean slate. Given that, Troy earned his starting spot [on Tuesday], and he didn't relinquish it. He did a phenomenal job. Everyone knows he's a good shooter. More importantly, he played defense and rebounded." With Murphy starting, incumbent Danny Fortson will likely be forced to come off the bench.

Grizzlies: Russian rookie Gordan Giricek continues to impress in Memphis. The 6-foot-6 swingman tossed in 19 points on 7 of 14 shooting to help the Grizzlies beat the Heat, 83-71 on Wednesday. "He's a scorer not a shooter. And he wouldn't want me to say that," coach Sidney Lowe told the Memphis Commercial Appeal. "He can get it going from the outside, but he also has the ability to put the ball on the floor. He's very clever with the ball. He's a good passer when he's not careless with the ball. . . . I was happy to see him hit some shots. He plays by feel. If he sees the opportunity to slash and get a layup, he'll take it."

Blazers: The team has been impressed with the improvement of rookie Qyntel Woods, but don't expect to see him in a game anytime soon. "You tell him something, he goes and tries to do it," coach Mo Cheeks told the Oregonian. "I've been surprised at his progress in picking up our plays. As games come up and he gets out on the court, he's going to realize how much more he has to learn. You know, guys try to take advantage of rookies when they step out on the court, as well they should. So Qyntel's knowledge of the game will improve as he gets into games . . . when he gets into games . . . if he gets into games."

Cavs: Coach John Lucas had reality smack him in the face a little bit Wednesday as he got his first taste of life with Andre Miller, Lamond Murray and Wesley Person. "It's going to be a struggle all year," Lucas told the Cleveland Plain Dealer. "I'm looking for different things. I didn't put Bimbo [Coles] back into the game. I took a look at some other players. Three-pointers used to be our bread-and-butter. We're not going to have a lot of 3-point opportunities. We're going to have to get points the old-fashion way."

Nuggets: The team is clearly rebuilding, but new coach Jeff Bzdelik will still lean heavily on his veterans this season. "I am going to start off by playing my core guys half the game initially while working other players in," Bzdelik told the Denver Post. "Hopefully, as each [preseason] game goes on, we'll kind of carve that down to what our rotation might be and get more and more defined as we approach the regular season. Ryan [bowen], Mark [blount], James [Posey], George [McCloud], Juwan [Howard] and Marcus [Camby] are obviously guys that will be relied on heavily. They're not necessarily all starters, but will be relied on heavily."

Nets: It looks like rookie Tamar Slay may beat out second-year forward Brian Scalabrine for the last spot on the Nets' roster. Coach Byron Scott said that "without a doubt," there's a spot on the Nets' roster for him. "Tamar has shown me he has a lot of confidence. He's learned very quickly," Scott told the N.Y. Post.

Hornets, Jazz: Jazz owner said he would consider selling the team's nickname to the Hornets. "I'm willing to sit down and talk about it," Miller told the Times Picayune. Coach Paul Silas isn't so sure the Hornets should change their name. "I've been now with the Hornets going on six years and we are Hornets through and through," Silas said. "But if it happens so be it. It would be interesting to see what the price would be." Maybe the two teams should just swap names. Utah is known as the Beehive State and New Orleans is the heart of Jazz.

Robinson's role changes

Chris McCosky / Detroit News

Chaney: We Need Leader

Marc Berman / New York Post

Pacers must accept shared playing time

C. Jemal Horton / Indianapolis Star

McMillan unhappy, James says he'll lose some weight

Jayda Evans / Seattle Times

O'Brien, C's talk up Brown: Expect talent to show in 2002-03

Steve Bulpett / Boston Herald

Fizer aims to be boost off bench

K.C. Johnson / Chicago Tribune

Murphy making strong statement

Matt Steinmetz / Contra Costa Times

Giricek finds range in Griz win

Ronald Tillery / Memphis Commercial Appeal

Woods proves quick study in Blazers' camp

Jim Beseda / The Oregonian

New-look Cavaliers struggle in preseason opener vs. Nets

Branson Wright / Cleveland Plain Dealer

Bzdelik will give veterans good look

Marc J. Spears / Denver Post

Rook Slay Can Stay

Fred Kerber / New York Post

Ankle inflamed, Brown sits out

John Reid / New Orleans Times-Picayune

[Traceman]

Ford said:

"Of course, the Lakers can explain the downside of not picking up a player's option. They declined to pick up Devean George's contract last fall and paid dearly for it this summer. By not picking up George's option, the Lakers lost their Bird Rights for George, meaning that because they were over the cap, they had to use their mid-level exception to re-sign him."

I thought that even if we didn't pick up DJ's option, we would still have his Bird rights but I see I was wrong. It's not likely that a team would give more than the full mid level exception to DJ coming off an injury but it's certainly possible.

I could see a young, rebuilding team who will have a little cap room and who need a SG taking a chance on DJ. Specifically, the Nuggets and the Wizards. The Nuggets are almost certainly going to have a top 3 pick plus caproom. Unless they win the LeBron James sweepstakes, I could see them going for DJ and teaming him with Tskitishvilli, Hilario and that top 3 pick. That would be a talented young Nucleus.

If the Wizards clean house, they could go for DJ and another top FA rather than resigning Stackhouse. In other words, would they rather have Stack and another $7 million/year player or DJ (who's from DC by the way) starting at just above the mid level exception ($5.5 million) and a max player (or near max player) such as Andre Miller, Lamar Odom, Elton Brand, Olowokandi, GP, etc. If I were a GM, I could get pretty excited about a lineup that featured a young nucleus of say Odom, DJ, Jefferies, Brown, Haywood, Dixon, etc.

Chicago could be a threat as well. Williams, DJ, Rose, Chandler, Curry could be pretty solid in a few years.

All of the above scenarios assume teams that could pay DJ more. The scary part is that he could sign with ANY team for their midlevel exception and there's not a damn thing we could do about it. What if LA wants him? If they offer their midlevel and the opportunity to play alongside Kobe and Shaq, what do you think he would do? It's a scary thought.

[jaywalker72]

Because he has played 3 years, we will still retain Bird rights for DJ, according to Babcock.

If Ford had placed a call, he would know that the Hawks are not going to pick up DJ's option, because nobody knows for sure if he wil be able to play next season fulll healthy or otherwise.

The reason it's not yet public knowledge is becuase Pete is working with the Player's Association for DJ's insurance, long term disability, etc...to make sure Slim is taken care of.

[chillzatl]

Iverson is already hurt and is already trying to ignore the fact that he's hurt. He'll be on the IL before the all-star break. Injuries and stubborness are going to ruin what could be a stellar career.

[Guest]

So basically there is a 99% chance DJ will

not play for Atlanta again even if he comes

back?I hope DJ gets on his feet somewhere

and gets another shot.

[Traceman]

the consequences we will face if we don't pick up DJ's option. Ford says that we will lose DJ's Bird Rights but we won't. He was wrong about that. However that being said, we CANNOT pay DJ more than anyone else using the Larry Bird exception. I took the following from Larry Coon's FAQ regarding the salary cap:

"There is one exception to the maximum salary that can be given using the Larry Bird exception. If the player was a first round draft pick and just completed his three-year rookie scale contract, but his team did not exercise their option to extend the contract for the fourth season (see question number 35 ), then this exception cannot be used to give him a salary greater than he would have received had the team exercised their fourth year option. For example Devean George was selected by the Lakers with the 23rd pick in the 1999 draft. He finished his three-year rookie scale contract in 2002. The Lakers had the option to extend him for the 02-03 season for $1,415,722 until October31, 2001, but did not do so. While the Lakers can use the Larry Bird exception to re-sign George, they are limited to a first-year salary (using this exception) of $1,415,722."

The bottom line is that if we don't pick up DJ's option, the MOST we can pay him is $3,072,719 (his 4th year salary if we do pick up his option) in the first year of a new contract using the Larry Bird Exception. Since we are over the cap, we could offer him the mid level exception (which is what LA had to do with George) of around $5 million but no more. That is SIGNIFCANT and basically gives virtually EVERY team the same opportunity to sign DJ that we have. That's a scary thought.

[jerrywest]

Its not a bad situation for us. Actually Hawks are at the driver's seat.

No team is going to pay DJ over $3,072,719 and no team is going to sign him for more than 1 year. He has to re-prove himself before that. Hawks can sign him for much lower at one year and keep the Larry Bird rights if he has a strong year. If he goes to another team he will have to start from scratch.

I don't know any valid reason for DJ to go anywhere else.

Thanks for your research Traceman.

[Traceman]

If Darius Miles was injured in a vehicle accident and had the same prognosis for recovery as DJ (pretty good), I think I would offer him a multi-year contract for the mid-level exception assuming he passed a physical prior to signing the contract.

The problem is that we don't have the advantage of waiting until next summer to see if DJ fully recovers from the accident like every other team will. It's a bad situation and we could really get burned either way. Right now, I think I would lean toward picking up the option and praying for the best. If DJ is unable to play, we are only obligated to pay him for one more year at a salary that is less than the mid level exception and insurance will take care of most of that. If we don't pick up his option, we COULD lose him.

At a minimum, if he is able to pass a team physicals next summer, I'll be VERY surprised if SOME team doesn't offer him a multi year deal starting at more than $3 million. If Greg Buckner and Bruce Bowen can command that kind of money, I'd damn sure take my chances on DJ at that price. I really don't anticipate a team giving him more than the mid-level exception ($5 million?) next year but if some team offers him even $4 million, we will have to use our mid level exception to sign him and that makes it impossible for us to use it for anyone else. In addition, that is another $2 million against the salary cap that we would not have had to spend if we had just picked up his option.

There are risks either way but I think I'd rather gamble that he's going to be okay than risk losing him without getting any compensation.