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ESPN BIG BEN TO THE BULLS


Scott

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Bulls Shopping Chandler?

Jul 3 - The Detroit News reports the Bulls have been shopping Tyson Chandler around the league in hopes of getting a more offensive-minded big man like Golden State's Troy Murphy or Utah's Carlos Boozer, and had their free-agent sights on a less-expensive center such as Joel Przybilla or Nazr Mohammed.


There's really nothing insider to that.

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O.K. he has a good chance of being better than Chandler because Chandler is very limited as a basketball player. As evidence that Scott Skiles benched him after he was given a big contract. Is that a fair statement?


No, it isn't when you look at the history of second round draft picks. Saying a second round draft pick has a good chance of averaging 9 rpg is probably even lower than saying a second round draft pick has a good chance at averaging 18 ppg. It has happened but you can probably count the number of times on your hands in the last decade. Given that there have been approximately 300 second round picks in that time, it is tough to say the odds are good.

I'll get you started on a list of these great players from 1997-2006:

Carlos Boozer

Dennis Rodman

Anthony Mason

PJ Brown

Jamie Feick

Michael Smith....

umm.... Bueller, Bueller....

That is roughly a rate of 2%.

Now further consider that the stated critiria is that Solomon is better right now.

Of those player who have averaged 9 rpg over the last decade and were second round picks, only 1 of them averaged 9+ rpg his rookie year - Michael Smith.

Now your success rate for rookie second rounder equaling 9 rpg over the last decade is down to approximately .4% or 3-4 chances in a thousand.

How does that translate to a good chance?

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Carlos Boozer

Dennis Rodman

Anthony Mason

PJ Brown

Jamie Feick

Michael Smith....


shouldn't Ben Wallace, Memet Okur, & Antonio Davis be on that list? Primo Brezac & Raef lafrentz Zaza Pachulia should get honorable mentions

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I'll get you started on a list of these great players from 1997-2006:


By the way, Dennis Rodman was drafted in the second round also


Thanks. Since he is on the list I gave you.

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Carlos Boozer

Dennis Rodman

Anthony Mason

PJ Brown

Jamie Feick

Michael Smith....


shouldn't Ben Wallace, Memet Okur, & Antonio Davis be on that list? Primo Brezac & Raef lafrentz Zaza Pachulia should get honorable mentions


Raef LaFrentz - #3 overall pick in the draft. Why are you bringing him up?

Primo Brezec was a first round pick. He also has never even averaged 8rpg. Why are we talking about him?

Zaza Pachulia also has never averaged 8 rpg. Why is he in this discussion?

Ben Wallace - Not a second round pick. If you include him you must include every player not drafted which ups your base from 300 potential players to thousands and actually lowers the chances of success statistically.

Memet Okur - Should be included as his career high last season was 9.1 rpg. That puts the list now at 7. That leaves the list at 1 who averaged 9+ their rookie season as it took him 4 years in the NBA to average 9 or more.

Antonio Davis - Absolutely also should be included. That pushed the number to 8. However, it is still 1 person who averaged 9 his rookie year. Davis didn't average 9+ rebounds until his 9th year in the NBA.

* * *

Like I said, out of several hundred players you can count the ones who did it at any point in the last decade on your hands.

The number who did it their rookie season (right now in Solomon's world) is still 1.

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Thanks. Since he is
on the list I gave you.


I have more! Reggie Evans & Udonis Hanslem


Good call...except that Udonis Haslem and Reggie Evans weren't drafted and shouldn't be included for the same reason as Ben Wallace. They also didn't average 9 rpg their rookie year.

Keep trying and try to go with players who were selected in the second round or agree to expand the base of players under consideration for statistical purposes to 100 per year instead of approximately 30.

If we are talking about a base of 1000 players I am happy to include Wallace, Evans and Haslem and lower the odds to approximately 1% for anytime in the career and .1% for it happening during Solomon's rookie season.

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Davis didn't average 9+ rebounds until his 9th year in the NBA.

The number who did it their rookie season (right now in Solomon's world) is still 1.


Chandler didn't average 9rpg his 1st year either

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Davis didn't average 9+ rebounds until his 9th year in the NBA.

The number who did it their rookie season (right now in Solomon's world) is still 1.


Chandler didn't average 9rpg his 1st year either


He averaged over 9rpg per game the last two years. The criteria you said was that they are better than him RIGHT NOW. That means you are comparing them as they are now against someone who is a 9+ rpg player.

As I said, if someone believed Solomon was that good right now he would have been a lottery pick instead of a second rounder.

The odds are terrible of a second round pick being as good as Chandler right now.

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Keep trying and try to go with players who were selected in the second round or agree to expand the base of players under consideration for statistical purposes to 100 per year instead of approximately 30.


Brad Miller

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Keep trying and try to go with players who were selected in the second round or agree to expand the base of players under consideration for statistical purposes to 100 per year instead of approximately 30.


Brad Miller


Again, not drafted in the second round. Averaged 9+ rebounds his 7th year in the NBA.

Not a comparator. Try again.

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]Again, not drafted in the second round. Averaged 9+ rebounds his 7th year in the NBA.

Not a comparator. Try again.


All of these guys on the list were second rounders or undrafted and fits my revised statement that these guys showed that they can be just as good or better rebounders than Chandler. Solomon jones has the same potential for a fraction of Chandler's salary

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I just hope Jones can contribute anything...this Chandler vs. Solomon Jones crap is ridiculous.


this is not a Jones vs Chandler. Its a Chandler's skill vs his salary discussion. His skill level doesn't come close to matching his salary or his draft position.

Can we say bust!

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I just hope Jones can contribute anything...this Chandler vs. Solomon Jones crap is ridiculous.


I don't think it's a stretch to say Solomon Jones has potential to be as good as Chandler. The guy is a longer version of Tyrus Thomas on paper. But he's 2-3 years away. If we needed immediate help, there is noone more ready out there than Tyson Chandler. He's better than any of those Golden State guys and he's younger with more upside than Przybilla. Unless we can get Jermaine O'neal, noone out there is better.

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]Again, not drafted in the second round. Averaged 9+ rebounds his 7th year in the NBA.

Not a comparator. Try again.


All of these guys on the list were second rounders or undrafted and fits my revised statement that these guys showed that they can be just as good or better rebounders than Chandler. Solomon jones has the same potential for a fraction of Chandler's salary


Your statement was that he had a "good chance."

1 out of a 100 is not a good chance.

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