Insider: Hollinger's breakout candidates (Smoove)

[Plastic Man]

Updated: Nov. 2, 2006

Nelson, Deng lead breakout-season candidatesBy John Hollinger

ESPN Insider

Opening week is here and with it comes all the usual manner of prognostications. We've already given you our thoughts on all the teams and the major awards, but today I want to delve into something else -- which players we should expect to make big steps forward this season.

Every year, several players make the jump from relative anonymity to household names. Sometimes they're truly out of nowhere -- Boris Diaw last year, for instance. Other times, however, we can see it coming if we look close enough at their age, performance and opportunity. That's what I'm doing today, as I name my "All-Breakout Team" for 2006-07 -- 10 guys I expect to put up much better numbers than they did a year ago.

First, some ground rules:

No current stars. I'm trying to avoid Master Of The Obvious stuff here. For instance, NBA.com's GM survey named Dwight Howard as this year's top breakout player. Gee, ya think? I heard the Cavs have some guy named LeBron James that might be good, too. This list digs a bit deeper, so don't expect to see Chris Paul, Dwyane Wade, or any other Olympians or All-Stars in here.

Opportunity matters. No matter how much I like a guy, there is no point putting him on an All-Breakout team if he's not going to play. For instance, I'm a huge Andris Biedrins fan, but he might play only 10 minutes a game this year in Don Nelson's smallball system. So I'll hold off on the endorsement for a while. Similarly, some players that I might not be as high on have undeniably improved opportunities this year that could vault them ahead of their peers.

Comebacks don't count. Sorry, I'm not putting Grant Hill or Nene on this list. I'm just looking at young guys who are genuinely on the upswing, not veterans regaining their former standing by dint of improved health.

With those caveats, then, let's take a look at this year's breakout players:

Starting Five

Jameer Nelson, PG, Magic

Nelson is the most underrated point guard in the game right now. Last year his PER ranked eighth among point guards -- ahead of Mike Bibby, Jason Kidd and Baron Davis. He didn't get as much attention because he only played 28.8 minutes a game -- largely because it took the Magic half the year to unload Steve Francis -- but is likely to average in the mid-to-high 30s this year. Yes, there's a possibility that backup Carlos Arroyo could eat into his minutes, but Nelson is likely to slide over to shooting guard for long stretches.

If Nelson plays as much as I expect, his averages will turn a lot of heads. He averaged over 20 points per 40 minutes a year ago, so a scoring average in the high teens shouldn't surprise anyone. He could even break 20 if they call his number enough as the shooting guard in tandem with Arroyo.

Luol Deng, SG, Bulls

I'm cheating a bit here since the candidates at forward are so strong while the guards are a little weak. The Deng bandwagon got crowded with the news this week that he beat out Andres Nocioni for the starting small forward job. Remember, Deng didn't have an offseason between his first and second year because he was healing an injury all summer, so this has been his first real chance to develop some new tricks. Additionally, he's only 21 and he picked up the game at a late age, so his learning curve still should be quite steep.

Deng's biggest obstacle has been a lack of offensive variety and relatively few plays called for him; with a summer to work on it and a team in need of more scoring, both could be solved. Look for a scoring average in the high teens, along with about seven boards and a decent shooting percentage.

Josh Smith, SF, Hawks

Smith was a completely different player in the final two months of last season, with averages of 15 points, 7.8 rebounds, 4.1 rebounds and 3.1 blocks. He's also become a reliable outside shooter in addition to his high-wire routing around the basket. (And while we're on the topic, can somebody explain why he hasn't been nicknamed "Aero-Smith" yet?).

But his selection on this roster has as much to do with is age -- he won't turn 21 until December, and one has to think that with increased maturity will come a drop in the concentration lapses that have been his main barrier to success thus far. He's still better in fantasy than in real life, but the gap is shrinking as he becomes a more solid player in between highlights.

Channing Frye, SF, Knicks

Of all the mysteries of the Larry Brown era, the biggest is why he kept this guy on the pine so he could get more burn for Malik Rose and Maurice Taylor. In terms of PER, Frye was the Knicks' best player last year, and the second-best rookie after Paul. His 40-minute averages jump off the page -- 20.4 points and 9.5 rebounds.

Frye might not average quite that many minutes -- a propensity for fouling should keep him in the low-to-mid 30s -- but we're still looking at about 17.0 points and 8.0 boards and a shooting mark in the high 40s, with an outside shot at a 20-10 year if he can cut down on the hacking. That's why Frye got my vote for Most Improved Player in our writers' poll this week.

Andrew Bogut, C, Bucks

I was big on Bogut's bust-out potential until a knee injury knocked him out in preseason, but now that I hear he's made a quick recovery I'm back on the bandwagon. Bogut put up decent numbers as a rookie last year despite playing out of position, and with his incredible passing skills he should benefit from a move to the low block.

Overall, I think we're basically looking at the new Vlade Divac here -- slightly less clever and a bit more physical, if you're nit-picking, but he shapes up as a double-double guy who will shoot a good percentage and lead all centers in assists.

Second Team

Mo Williams, G, Bucks

Williams is a classic breakout guy. He's better than people realize, averaging nearly a point every two minutes a year ago. He's younger than people think -- he doesn't turn 24 until December -- so he should continue improving. And he's getting a big boost in opportunity, as the Bucks traded T.J. Ford in the offseason and promoted him to the starting lineup. If you pro-rate his scoring production to 36 minutes a game or so you're looking at a scoring average in the high teens, with six assists and a decent percentage in addition.

Raymond Felton, SG, Bobcats

So many people have been singing this guy's praises that it's getting almost trite to call him a breakout player. But there's little question his numbers this year should be much better than last year's. Felton averaged 16.7 points and 7.6 assists after the All-Star break. He should at least match those numbers this year, as rookie guards who show an ability to create shots rarely disappoint. This will be especially true if the Bobcats trade Brevin Knight at midseason, as many people suspect, and allow Felton to play the point full time.

Danny Granger, SF, Pacers

Here's a case where I am completely confident in his ability; what I am not confident in are his minutes. The Pacers are so deep and have so many chameleon-types who can play multiple positions that several players could end up cutting into Granger's minutes.

Here's what I do know -- Granger was solid statistically as a rookie, he should break into the starting lineup and see a big jump in playing time, and unlike a lot of young players he's not going to lose minutes because of defense or intensity issues. He might not get more than 11 points a game or so, but if he gets starters' minutes he'll spike it with eight boards and over a block and a steal per game.

Darko Milicic, PF, Magic

Milicic was very impressive in his brief time in Orlando a year ago, and at his age (21) and size (7-0) he has scouts salivating again. I'm a little worried about his low rebound rate, but he's one of the league's best shot-blockers and has the skills to play inside or outside. I didn't put him on the first team because he only performed at that level for two months -- I'd like to see him do it for a full season before I put him ahead of Frye or Bogut on my breakout shopping list, especially given the questions about his intensity and conditioning that surfaced in Detroit.

Kendrick Perkins, C, Celtics

That four-year, $16 million extension he signed might go down as Danny Ainge's best move as Celtics GM. Look at it this way -- Perkins is already one of the best rebounders in the league and projects as a top-five guy in Rebound Rate for the coming season. Now compare his contract to Reggie Evans, who does nothing but rebound and signed a free-agent deal this summer that will pay him substantially more than Perkins.

And Perkins isn't nearly as one-dimensional. In addition to the boards, Perkins can score a little around the basket -- he probably won't crack double figures, but he'll shoot around 50 percent -- and he's a physical center who provides a true defensive presence. Also, he won't turn 22 for three more weeks, so he's improving. A double-double might be out of reach unless he gets the rock more, but 10 boards and two blocks a game is completely reasonable.

Honorable Mention

Something's wrong if a guy is on your All-Breakout team two years in a row, but I remain entranced by the talents of Al Jefferson and Travis Outlaw. Each has been productive given their youth, but neither has improved as much as might be expected. Each has had trouble earning consistent minutes due to defensive lapses.

Devin Harris would be a home run of a pick at one of the guard spots, except his minutes remain a question. I get the impression that Avery Johnson prefers the grizzled vets of the Greg Buckner-Jerry Stackhouse-Anthony Johnson variety, but Harris is by far the best player of the bunch. Unfortunately the presence of Jason Terry will force him to earn minutes at shooting guard, where his lack of size and weak jumper make him a less obvious choice.

Kevin Martin is unlikely to shoot as well as he did a year ago, but his playing time will increase markedly now that Bonzi Wells is gone, so he should up his average to around 17 a game … provided he can pry the ball away from Ron Artest.

J.R. Smith is a phenomenal talent with a questionable attitude, which is going to make the pairing of he and the always-testy George Karl very interesting. Smith has a wide-open path to playing time if he stays on the straight and narrow, but he might need more time to get his head together.

I'm a card-carrying member of the fan clubs for ex-Knicks Jackie Butler (now with the Spurs) and Trevor Ariza (Magic), but I doubt either will get enough minutes to merit the "breakout" tag this season. Watch out in '08 though. Additionally, two players I've already mentioned share their position with players who are breakout candidates themselves. David Lee of the Knicks and Martell Webster of the Blazers would rank higher if I could be more sure of their opportunities.

Confession: I didn't have Andrew Bynum on this list when I first made it. But after a monster preseason and a stellar opener (18 points, nine rebounds, five assists), it's clear he's ready to play. He'll have some valleys with the peaks (four fouls in 10 minutes vs. Golden State, for instance), but few big men can pass like this guy.

John Hollinger writes for ESPN Insider. To e-mail him, click here.

[SmooveTheFuture]

Awesome stuff Im glad other people around the league feel Smoove is gonna break out. Now he just has to go out and bring it everynight and not settle for the jump shot. Also that list he made I agree with mostly all the players on there seems like he did his research when he wrote this.

[mrhonline]

Quote:

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Mo Williams, G, Bucks

Williams is a classic breakout guy. He's better than people realize, averaging nearly a point every two minutes a year ago. He's younger than people think -- he doesn't turn 24 until December -- so he should continue improving. And he's getting a big boost in opportunity, as the Bucks traded T.J. Ford in the offseason and promoted him to the starting lineup. If you pro-rate his scoring production to 36 minutes a game or so you're looking at a scoring average in the high teens, with six assists and a decent percentage in addition.

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This is a guy I hope the Hawks consider pursuing next year in free agency, unless, of course, Speedy explodes. At the right price, he would be an ideal pairing with JJ. His defense is questionable at this point, but he's still young.

Plus, I would rather the Hawks use the Indy pick on another big man.