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Let me see the hands of those who know....

Diesel

By Diesel
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Diesel Grand Master

Diesel

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agree with #2 but would probably select one of Thomas or Noah and add to that Marcus Williams. Let's be clear, Noah and Tyrus are BOTH better forward pro prospects than Marvin Williams. Both have the potential to dominate games, whereas Marvin doesn't appear to even now. They also both play PF (though Noah could play C in a pinch, expecially with another 20-30 lbs).

-Walter Last year

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Lascar78 Newbie

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no he's showing how Noah who also would have gone 1 or 2 was assumed by many to be a lock to go pro. Yet he stayed. And prior to deadline time, he had given no signs of staying. Oden has flat out said that he won't be 1 and out.

So while it's still quite likely that Oden will come out, it's far from a certainty.

When you combine that uncertainty with the uncertainty of ending up with the #1 or #2 worst record even if we do tank (especially the absurd just trade Lue and play JJ a little less), as well as the uncertainty of staying in the top 3 even if you have many lottery balls, the odds just aren't good. Especially considering the kiss of death that giving up the #4 pick after tanking would be.

I think Marvin's an innocent bystander in this thread.

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bfwolf Newbie

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no he's showing how Noah who also would have gone 1 or 2 was assumed by many to be a lock to go pro. Yet he stayed. And prior to deadline time, he had given no signs of staying. Oden has flat out said that he won't be 1 and out.

So while it's still quite likely that Oden will come out, it's far from a certainty.

When you combine that uncertainty with the uncertainty of ending up with the #1 or #2 worst record even if we do tank (especially the absurd just trade Lue and play JJ a little less), as well as the uncertainty of staying in the top 3 even if you have many lottery balls, the odds just aren't good. Especially considering the kiss of death that giving up the #4 pick after tanking would be.

I think Marvin's an innocent bystander in this thread.

Not true. Noah said all along that he wasn't coming out. Also consider that Noah is the son of a famous tennis player. Does Oden have that kind of financial security (I honestly don't know the answer here, but financial security among college basketball players is pretty rare)? Guys say all the time that they want to stay in school, and they rarely follow through with it. Does anybody think Oden wouldn't have gone straight to the NBA if he'd been allowed to? And if you agree he would've gone straight to the NBA, what makes you think one year of college is going to change his mind? The percentages say that Oden will come out. That's no guarantee, but there are few guarantees in life.

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Guest Walter

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agree with #2 but would probably select one of Thomas or Noah and add to that Marcus Williams. Let's be clear, Noah and Tyrus are BOTH better forward pro prospects than Marvin Williams. Both have the potential to dominate games, whereas Marvin doesn't appear to even now. They also both play PF (though Noah could play C in a pinch, expecially with another 20-30 lbs).

-Walter Last year

I would still rather have him than MW for the same reason you posted in that thread Diesel. MW and JS are redundant.

What I don't understand how thinking Noah was slightly better than he appears, or rather realizing that his "potential ceiling" is a little lower than I thought it was, reflects upon Oden. I think Oden is proving he is better than I even thought. In otherwords, I don't think the hype does Oden justice while with Noah it did him a slight injustice, nothing to the level hype did MW an injustice however.

Regardless, Diesel if your "argument" is now to quietly bash Oden I suggest you sit in a corner and think up a new one.

W

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Lascar78 Newbie

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Not true. Noah said all along that he wasn't coming out.

I don't believe Noah said anythinig about staying until the tournament was here. I could be wrong, that's how I remember it. In any event, Oden has said since high school that he's staying for more than a year. Noah is an example that at the very least, it may be true. Yes Noah was born rich, but Oden knows that there is a 100% chance that he will be extremely rich soon. If he wants to play 2 years of college ball, he will still be rich afterwards. It all depends on his priorities.

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Does anybody think Oden wouldn't have gone straight to the NBA if he'd been allowed to?

I don't. He seems to me like the good boy, Tim Duncan type. He has said that he wants to play multiple years of college ball, and there is definitely a chance that that will happen. I wouldn't bet anything on him staying in school, but I also wouldn't gamble my entire franchise on him coming out.

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Lascar78 Newbie

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The tourney is in March and the draft is in June. Noah said for months that he wasn't coming out. He even said that he thought the NBA was boring.

I understand that. My point was comparing Oden and Noah, who didn't come out.

What I meant to say was that at this point last year, Noah had given no signs of staying in school, whereas Oden has been saying it since high school. Therefore if a guy like Noah (who would have been top 3) ends up staying, we should recognize that it's at least a real possibility that a guy who has been going out of his way to stay that he'll play more than 1 year of college ball will in fact do so.

I didn't literally mean deadline day, but somewhere around tournament time when reporters actually start asking them outright if they're staying.

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bfwolf Newbie

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The tourney is in March and the draft is in June. Noah said for months that he wasn't coming out. He even said that he thought the NBA was boring.

I understand that. My point was comparing Oden and Noah, who didn't come out.

What I meant to say was that at this point last year, Noah had given no signs of staying in school, whereas Oden has been saying it since high school. Therefore if a guy like Noah (who would have been top 3) ends up staying, we should recognize that it's at least a real possibility that a guy who has been going out of his way to stay that he'll play more than 1 year of college ball will in fact do so.

I didn't literally mean deadline day, but somewhere around tournament time when reporters actually start asking them outright if they're staying.

Noah wasn't considered a top pick until he exploded on the scene with the NCAA tournament. The reason why there's no record of what he wanted to do before the tourney is because nobody gave a thought to him coming out before then.

You're right, though. Oden MAY stay in school. If my life depended on it, though, I'd bet that he's coming out. Wouldn't you?
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Diesel Grand Master

Diesel

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Greg Oden is doing what he promised he would. But did he enroll at Ohio State only because of the rule barring high school graduates from going directly to the National Basketball Association?

That’s what the doubters are saying as Oden nears his über-anticipated debut as the Buckeyes’ most high-profile recruit since Jim Jackson in the early 1990s.

Subscribers to that opinion may know about Oden the 7-foot all-everything center from Indianapolis, cornerstone of head coach Thad Matta’s recruiting class, the “Thad Five.”

But they don’t know anything about Oden the introspective, goal-oriented 18-year-old whose arrival on campus for school last summer fulfilled an oft-stated vow.

“The people who really know Greg wouldn’t have been surprised by him going to college, even if the NBA hadn’t passed a rule requiring him to do that,” said Jack Keefer, Oden’s coach at Lawrence North High School in Indianapolis. “Now those same people expect him to stay only one year, but I wouldn’t be completely surprised to see him stay at Ohio State for three years or even four years.

“It would be hard, because the money will be there for him in the NBA after one year. But Greg is going to do what he thinks is best for him, and he really values his education. He isn’t like a lot of kids who think only about the NBA,” Keefer said. “He wants to get his degree. Only one member of his family has done that.

“I think, to Greg, getting his degree is just as important as winning a national championship.”

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Diesel Grand Master

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Oden, however, spoke with WBNS-AM 1460 after completing his senior season of high school and made clear his intention not to be the focal point for the Buckeyes.

“It’s not my team; it’s the seniors’ team,” he said. “I just want to fit in and do whatever I can to help us win. There are a lot of talented guys already here, or Ohio State wouldn’t have won the Big Ten last season. We have some other talented freshmen coming in besides me. We all just want to contribute.”

Oden also addressed the suspicions of those who expect him to be a Buckeye for only one season before bolting for the NBA.

“I’m looking forward to college because I know that right now, I’m not ready for the NBA,” he said. “I’ll know I’m ready when I feel prepared to be more than just another player at that level.

“I get pushed around too much now. I need to get stronger. My game is early in its development, so I really feel like there is a good chance I’ll be in college for two years or more. I want to have the same experiences as all the other students who don’t play basketball, and I want to study and get close to my degree.”

Still skeptical? Consider that two summers ago, when Oden was establishing himself as the No. 1 recruit in the nation, he skipped an important AAU tournament to attend his cousin’s college graduation in Buffalo, N.Y.

“I think that’s what makes Greg so unique,” Matta said. “Academics are vitally important to him. From the very beginning, he made it clear to us that academics were a priority with him. Some recruits say that because it sounds good. With Greg, you could tell he meant it.”

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Lascar78 Newbie

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You're right, though. Oden MAY stay in school. If my life depended on it, though, I'd bet that he's coming out. Wouldn't you?

Oh yeah. But if I had to guess I'd say the odds are somewhere around 65% that he's coming out. He'll probably come out, but maybe not. I wouldn't put myself in a position where my franchise is doomed if he doesn't

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bfwolf Newbie

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You're right, though. Oden MAY stay in school. If my life depended on it, though, I'd bet that he's coming out. Wouldn't you?

Oh yeah. But if I had to guess I'd say the odds are somewhere around 65% that he's coming out. He'll probably come out, but maybe not. I wouldn't put myself in a position where my franchise is doomed if he doesn't

One might ask whether we're doomed without Oden/Durant regardless. I think that if we want a better chance at Oden/Durant, the EASY thing to do is to shift minutes around so that young guys like Solomon Jones get more PT to help them develop. You don't let Joe Johnson kill himself out there with 40 minutes a game. We can make ourselves a worse team today just by shifting minutes around, and you'd be hard pressed to make an argument that this would make us a worse team next year because the guys get in the habit of losing. I could even make the argument that it would make us a BETTER team next year because our young guys get a chance to develop their skills, and it makes Joe less likely to wear down and develop a chronic injury.

The trickier part is actual personnel changes designed to make us a worse team, like trading Lue to a contender for somebody crappier and a draft pick. This kind of move COULD set us back in our progress if we don't get Oden/Durant and should only be done if we truly think we're getting value in the trade.
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