Jon Hollinger On Hawks.

[HawkItus]

Glenn (Cumberland, RI): John, isn't everyone over-reacting to the signings of Childress, Kristic and a bunch of other marginal performers in Europe? I mean won't the Hawks get about the same production from Mo Evans at about 1/3 the price?

SportsNation John Hollinger: (3:10 PM ET ) Childress was one of the best sixth men in basketball last year and Evans, while he fills a need, isn't nearly as good a player. That said, what people are reacting to isn't the loss of Childress, but the potential for much more damaging talent raids in the future.

Tyler (Columbus Ohio): Hey John do you have any info on if the Cavs will make any moves this offseason besides Tinsey? Are they making a move towards JR Smith or will he still be in Denver next season?

SportsNation John Hollinger: (3:11 PM ET ) the Cavs have no chance of getting Smith -- Denver will match at any price Cleveland could offer. I liked the Tarence Kinsey signing in terms of taking advantage of available talent, but he's not a floor spacer and that's the biggest thing Cleveland needs.

Joe (NY): Aren't the Rockets the clear #2 team in the west right now?? I thought about putting them #2 even before Arteest joined them.

SportsNation John Hollinger: (3:12 PM ET ) I was thinking about this the other day -- does it make them the clear #2 ahead of Utah? I think it probably does ... but so much of the projection for them depends on what you assume about Yao and T-Mac's availability.

Drew (Philly): What do you think of the Lou Williams contract(5yrs - $25 mil)? I've read that Iguodala is asking for more than Deng. Will he get it?

SportsNation John Hollinger: (3:13 PM ET ) Williams is a bargain. Iggy is right to ask for Deng money, but the Sixers have the upper hand in a major way in the negotiations -- same goes for Josh Smith, by the way -- and that may bring down the final price a bit. Iggy's trump card would be to play for the Q.O., but I don't think he wants to go there yet.

Sam (Carlsbad, CA): John, do the Hawks really think Josh Smith will sign for any less money than what Deng and Okafor got? I mean, if they really think so, then find go ahead and push it. But come on! Pay the man! The market has spoken! 6 years 72 million, case closed let's move on.

SportsNation John Hollinger: (3:15 PM ET ) Smith's problem is that his threat to play for the Q.O. isn't as credible because he was only the 17th pick, so it's a much lower number. So unless he wants to go backpacking through Europe with Josh Childress, the Hawks can drive his price down.

Dave, SLC: If Paul Millsap develops to the point where he gives the Jazz 75 percent of what Boozer can give them in a MAX deal, don't you think signing Sap to a cost effective extension will be the Jazz best option after next season?

SportsNation John Hollinger: (3:16 PM ET ) Only if the money that would have gone to Boozer can be re-applied to upgrading another position. Given how the cap works, that's not always the case. Millsap, by the way, fouls far too often to play full-time -- I don't have my #s in front of me but I believe he had the highest rate among power forwards last year.

Peter (Seattle, WA): J-Chill's a solid and smart player, but I never thought of him as a cornerstone piece. What did you mean by him being a glue guy?

SportsNation John Hollinger: (3:18 PM ET ) A glue guy is somebody who doesn't need the ball to be effective, and can do a lot of the other things -- pass, rebound, defend, etc. -- that winning teams need. Chilz wasn't an elite defender by any means, but he killed people on the glass and could score without having plays called for him.

Edited August 5, 2008 by sultanofatl

[Flight]

Why is Childress be looked at as a better player now that he's gone?

[HawkItus]

Why is Childress be looked at as a better player now that he's gone?

I think its just what happens with guys like Hollinger or other scribes out of state who just look at numbers. His numbers were good for a 6th man. But they didn't see the total worth as we as fans can. Played out in wins and losses I think not having chillz will cost us exactly zero games we'd have won with him.

[Flight]

I think its just what happens with guys like Hollinger or other scribes out of state who just look at numbers. His numbers were good for a 6th man. But they didn't see the total worth as we as fans can. Played out in wins and losses I think not having chillz will cost us exactly zero games we'd have won with him.

I agree I think Childress is replaceable though he is a great player I think Mo Evans can do just a good

[Guest]

I think its just what happens with guys like Hollinger or other scribes out of state who just look at numbers. His numbers were good for a 6th man. But they didn't see the total worth as we as fans can. Played out in wins and losses I think not having chillz will cost us exactly zero games we'd have won with him.

Hollinger lives in Atlanta and goes to every home game. I think he would have a pretty good grasp of what kind of player Childress was just from watching all the games. However, if Hollinger pointed to his overrated PER then that would be a different story. Hollinger did not refer to PER at all, so I believe he was talking about watching his play.

[Flight]

Hollinger lives in Atlanta and goes to every home game. I think he would have a pretty good grasp of what kind of player Childress was just from watching all the games. However, if Hollinger pointed to his overrated PER then that would be a different story. Hollinger did not refer to PER at all, so I believe he was talking about watching his play.

Then Him saying that Mo Evans wasn't as good a player doesn't make much sense because he'd be judging from stats right?

[Guest]

Then Him saying that Mo Evans wasn't as good a player doesn't make much sense because he'd be judging from stats right?

I find his PER stat to be unreliable and overrated. It overvalues volume shooting and undervalues efficient scoring. So if Hollinger is just basing Evan's play through PER then I don't find it to make much sense. But chances are that Hollinger has seen Evan's play and isn't basing it off of stats especially since he did not make reference to PER.

[Boomer]

Hollinger lives in Atlanta and goes to every home game. I think he would have a pretty good grasp of what kind of player Childress was just from watching all the games. However, if Hollinger pointed to his overrated PER then that would be a different story. Hollinger did not refer to PER at all, so I believe he was talking about watching his play.

Yep, I saw him in person at 2 or 3 games last year. I use to like his work, but he's starting to get on my nerves lately. He seems to be real quick to find the negativity in things. Kinda like Peter Vescey(sp?).

[HawkItus]

I find his PER stat to be unreliable and overrated. It overvalues volume shooting and undervalues efficient scoring. So if Hollinger is just basing Evan's play through PER then I don't find it to make much sense. But chances are that Hollinger has seen Evan's play and isn't basing it off of stats especially since he did not make reference to PER.

actually that's exactly what he's basing his thoughts off of. Hollinger bases all his musings off PER. When he says Evans isn't near the player Chillz is its either the rebounding rate or the PER. Beyond that that statement holds no merit.

[Flight]

I find his PER stat to be unreliable and overrated. It overvalues volume shooting and undervalues efficient scoring. So if Hollinger is just basing Evan's play through PER then I don't find it to make much sense. But chances are that Hollinger has seen Evan's play and isn't basing it off of stats especially since he did not make reference to PER.

Yeah but I'm not gonna really talk about Evans being a downgrade becauase this season he could light it up just as well as J-chill did. because the system in Orlando is diffrent from ours so you never know the diffrence they could have in play.

[Boomer]

Yeah but I'm not gonna really talk about Evans being a downgrade becauase this season he could light it up just as well as J-chill did. because the system in Orlando is diffrent from ours so you never know the diffrence they could have in play.

Yeah, the more I think about it, I'm pretty sick of Hollinger and his stupid PER. I can get into stats and use them for what they're worth, but I'm sick of this PER crap.

[Packfill]

Yeah but I'm not gonna really talk about Evans being a downgrade becauase this season he could light it up just as well as J-chill did. because the system in Orlando is diffrent from ours so you never know the diffrence they could have in play.

Guys, Evans is a nice signing and fills a need but there is a reason he is a career journeyman.

Obviously Childress never lived up to his draft status (thanks again BK), but he was a solid contributor. I think the Hawks will miss his garbage buckets because the offensive system is so bad they need someone who can make something out of nothing.

[Boomer]

... because the offensive system is so bad they need someone who can make something out of nothing.

Can't argue with that

[Flight]

As the team gets better hopefully the coaching staff will too but when we played Boston we did better when we played with no real plays it was just us doing watever.

[crimedog]

I find his PER stat to be unreliable and overrated. It overvalues volume shooting and undervalues efficient scoring. So if Hollinger is just basing Evan's play through PER then I don't find it to make much sense. But chances are that Hollinger has seen Evan's play and isn't basing it off of stats especially since he did not make reference to PER.

The fact that Childress has a sky high PER (see guys like D. Lee in years past) means that PER values efficient scoring pretty highly. Childress is below average statistically at everything aside from offensive rebounding and efficient scoring aside from offensive rebounding.

[vdunkndunk]

To me, Evans is a nice signing, but what we needed was Evans AND Childress, not Evans instead of Childress. We also needed a happy Josh Smith AND Kwame Brown, not an unhappy Josh Smith and Randolph Morris. The Hawks had a chance to build continuity while strengthening their bench, and instead we just see more incompetence.

[Guest]

The fact that Childress has a sky high PER (see guys like D. Lee in years past) means that PER values efficient scoring pretty highly. Childress is below average statistically at everything aside from offensive rebounding and efficient scoring aside from offensive rebounding.

You just picked out two players and pointed to it as if to say "see, because of these examples PER must value efficient scoring" while in reality that is not the case. If you were to look at its formula, you could see that a player is given a credit for each point scored along with a 0.4*credit for a field goal made (they are charged a 0.7*credit for an attempt). So if you were to shoot 100 times and make 30% inside the arc, you gain 2 credits in your game score (simplified PER since it is not minute adjusted or pace adjusted, but that is arbitrary in this situation). When you shoot 200 times and make 30% inside the arc, you gain 4 credits. So it is creditting volume shooting more than efficient scoring. That was highly simplified but it serves the same purpose.

Also, I never said PER does not value efficient scoring, it just rewards a volume shooter more than an efficient scorer. If player A takes only 10 shots inside the arc but makes 60% player A gains 12+2.4-7=7.4. However, if player B takes 25 shots inside the arc but only makes 44% player B gains 22+4.4-17.5=8.9. So while player A is more efficient, player B is the volume shooter who gains the higher PER. Player A is obviously benefitting from being efficient, but player B benefits more because he shoots more.

[Swish]

Why hawksfanatic is getting votes for most helpful poster.

[exodus]

Also, I never said PER does not value efficient scoring, it just rewards a volume shooter more than an efficient scorer.

If this is true then i don't see how Childress has a higher PER than JJ.

Edited August 5, 2008 by exodus

[Guest]

If this is true then i don't see how Childress has a higher PER than JJ.

Other factors, such as a lower turnover rate and also Childress does everything in far less minutes than JJ. PER is given to us in per minute fashion, this is why sometimes you see someone with 10 mpg with a PER around 15.

The example I described for player A and B is extremely simplified, PER has a vast number of other factors that contribute to it I just put it in ceteris paribus, so assuming player A and B have every other stat exactly the same we will see player B with a higher PER because of volume shooting over scoring efficiency.