Fourth-and-goal: Final five are key

[DrReality]

Fourth-and-goal: Final five are key

By Sekou Smith

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Monday, April 06, 2009

The playoff bids are clinched.

The only thing left for the Hawks, Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat is to decide who gets the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference, which guarantees home-court advantage in the first round. The Hawks have held the spot for months, but with just five games remaining they’ll have to win to hold it. Here’s how the race breaks down:

4. Hawks (43-34)

Games left: at Toronto (Tuesday), at Milwaukee (Wednesday), Indiana (Friday), Miami (April 14), at Memphis (April 15).

Outlook: The Hawks hold a two-game lead over the Heat and 2 1/2-game lead over the 76ers. The 76ers also have more games remaining than the Hawks and could pass them. To lock up the fourth spot the Hawks are going to have to win on the road, where they are 14-24 this season. The Hawks have to finish at least a game ahead of Philadelphia, which owns a tiebreaker over the Hawks by winning the season series.

5. Miami (41-36)

Games left: New Orleans (Tuesday), at Boston (Friday), New York (Sunday), at Atlanta (April 14), Detroit (April 15).

Outlook: Dwyane Wade’s crew has the most favorable remaining schedule of the three teams scrapping for the No. 4 spot. They play one more home game than the Hawks and 76ers. However, they also play four games against teams that are still fighting for their own playoff lives.

6. Philadelphia (40-36)

Games left: at Charlotte (Tuesday), at Chicago (Thursday), Cleveland (Friday), at Toronto (Sunday), Boston (April 14), at Cleveland (April 15).

Outlook: The Sixers will have to defy the odds during their stretch run with four dangerous road games and home games against the top two teams in the conference remaining. They’ll also have to do it without starting small forward Thaddeus Young, who went down with a high ankle sprain against the Hawks last week and could be out as many as three weeks.

NEXT FOR HAWKS

> Who: at Raptors

> When: 7 p.m. Tuesday

[AnnArborHawk]

The reality is if we can pull off wins on Tuesday and Wednesday against very beatable teams, that should all but wrap it up.

Edited April 6, 2009 by StlAtlHawks

[Diesel]

The reality is if we can pull off wins on Tuesday and Wednesday against very beatable teams, that should all but wrap it up.

I would love to see us do that so that when we play the Heat, we can play Rio on Wade all game.

[mrhonline]

I would love to see us do that so that when we play the Heat, we can play Rio on Wade all game.

Me, too.

But I also have another motive - I'm coming to Atlanta to see a game that night, but I chose the Braves' game instead.

That's what I get for thinking the 4th seed would be clinched by then...

[frosgrim]

Sekou says we have a 2 game lead, but that is not entirely true. We have a 1 lead over Philly in the loss column. The losses are what matter not wins. You can make up wins, you can't make up losses (I learned this from Pete van Wierren). The tie breaker with Philly really favors them coming down the stretch. Philly only has to win one more game than the Hawks and they get the 4 seed.

The Hawks have got to get themselves straightend out or they will find themselves with the 5 or 6 seed. If the team falls to either of those spots, I expect an early exit from the playoffs.

[Diesel]

Me, too.

But I also have another motive - I'm coming to Atlanta to see a game that night, but I chose the Braves' game instead.

That's what I get for thinking the 4th seed would be clinched by then...

I'm not as concerned about Philly any longer because with Boston, LAL, and Orlando making it a race, I think that Cleveland will be out to pound the 76ers both times they meet.

I'm a little concerned about Miami because they can drop the Boston game and when the rest.

However, our future is in our hands. We have Milwaukee and Toronto... those are games we should win. We have an uninspired Indy team. That's a game we should win. And then we play Miami straight up...

[DrReality]

I'd love to see Mario on Wade all game. That'd piss him off and get us ready for the playoffs.

[HamHawk]

We should handle the Pacers too. I see three easily make able wins there (if we show up those nights). I can't wait for that regular season game vs. Miami. Doesn't count for playoffs, but what a perfect time to knock DW off mental balance right before taking them on.

As far as the Sixers go. . . . .I'm sure LBJ and Mo will have a little something to say about their contention for the fourth slot. I just hope we can get back at Cleveland in the playoffs this year. Wouldn't that be great?

[Highpozt2]

Sekou says we have a 2 game lead, but that is not entirely true. We have a 1 lead over Philly in the loss column. The losses are what matter not wins. You can make up wins, you can't make up losses (I learned this from Pete van Wierren). The tie breaker with Philly really favors them coming down the stretch. Philly only has to win one more game than the Hawks and they get the 4 seed.

The Hawks have got to get themselves straightend out or they will find themselves with the 5 or 6 seed. If the team falls to either of those spots, I expect an early exit from the playoffs.

Yes the Hawks cannot sleep on these last five games --- The Hawks for several reason do not match up well with Philly particularly if they lose homecourt. The way Philly rotates their defense, Dalembert and Theo are always in the paint and they are athletic enough to disturb Horford and Josh Smith. Hawks can beat them but that will be a tough series.