Hoopinion: 2010 NBA Draft: Collegiate Shooting Guard Prospects

[Hawksquawk]

Disclosure: Previous draft analysis, both insightful and woeful: 2009 NBA Draft, 2008 NBA Draft, 2007 NBA Draft preview, 2007 NBA Draft analysis, 2006 NBA Draft preview, 2006 NBA Draft analysis/live blog, 2005 NBA Draft preview, 2005 NBA Draft grades

SHOOTING GUARD

1. Evan Turner

-----LOTTERY-----

2. Avery Bradley

3. Willie Warren

4. Jordan Crawford

-----1st ROUND-----

5. Lance Stephenson

6. Manny Harris

7. Terrico White

8. Sylven Landesberg

9. Jon Scheyer

10. Dominique Jones

-----2nd ROUND-----

Evan Turner looks more James Harden than Brandon Roy to me but he'll obviously be something of a different (and, one hopes, more efficient) player when he doesn't have the ball in his hands for the majority of every possession.

Avery Bradley is not dissimilar to Jrue Holiday, who I was quite high on last season. Because he can't play point guard (offensively) Bradley's not as good a prospect as Holiday but he can be expected to guard both backcourt positions well and knock down open jumpers. Bradley struggled to score inside the arc and to get to the free throw line at Texas. I doubt he's a future star but he could be a very valuable role player for many years.

Willie Warren could be a steal at the end of the first round or he could shoot himself out the league in three years. He can score and isn't terribly inefficient despite his terrible shot selection. I have a rather low opinion of Jeff Capel so I'm optimistic with regard to Warren's ability to respond positively to good coaching.

If Jordan Crawford really is available early in the second-round, he'd be a tremendous value. He scored at a higher rate last season than any other shooting guard in this draft and he and Andy Rautins are the only shooting guards (in this draft) to make more than half of their two-point attempts and over 37% of their three-point attempts last season. Factor in Crawford's age, athleticism, and his acceptable passing and ball-handling and you've got a reasonable NBA prospect.

Crawford is probably the last reasonable prospect available at this position. Lance Stephenson, Manny Harris, Terrico White, and Sylven Landesberg have age on their side and little else. Stephenson struggled to score at Cincinnati. He's 68th (out of 93) in the spreadsheet in scoring rate, made 22% of his three-pointers, and 66% of his free throws. I fail to see a role he can fill for an NBA team at this point. Harris is talented, just not as much as he appears to think he is. Displaying humility and discretion could allow him to carve out a role as a scorer off the bench. White is listed as a point guard by some but I suspect it's just not possible to average fewer assists (per on court possession) than Brian Zoubek in college one season then play point guard in the NBA the next. He'll have to focus on defense to make a roster. Landesberg is a less-promising Manny Harris, a slasher who made just 39 three-pointers in two collegiate seasons.

Jon Scheyer will try to bring his undersized-power forward-in-a-guard's-body game to the NBA. It probably won't work out but I can't deny I'm curious.

Dominique Jones scored a ton of points at South Florida but the inefficiency with which he did so speaks to 1) the lack of talent around him and 2) his limitations as a shooter. He was active on the glass and blocked a decent number of shots for a guard in college. If he can lean more heavily on those skills, he could find work as a fifth guard.

DRAFT BOARD (Guards)

1. John Wall

2. Evan Turner

-----LOTTERY-----

3. Avery Bradley

4. Eric Bledsoe

5. Elliot Williams

6. Willie Warren

7. Jordan Crawford

-----1st ROUND-----

8. Lance Stephenson

9. Mikhail Torrance

10. Manny Harris

11. Jerome Randle

12. Greivis Vasquez

13. Ben Uzoh

14. Terrico White

15. Sylven Landesberg

16. Jon Scheyer

17. Dominique Jones

18. Sherron Collins

19. Scottie Reynolds

20. Devan Downey

-----2nd ROUND-----

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