Joe-Less Hawks Will be Fine, More Intriguing

[Wurider05]

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The next month or so in Atlanta is going to very interesting with Joe Johnson expected to be sidelined four to six weeks for elbow surgery.

Here’s a prediction: Johnson’s absence is going to make next-to-no difference in Atlanta’s record. The Hawks started this no-Joe period 11-7 and moved to 12-7 after their home win over Memphis on Wednesday. And when he returns after 16 (on the low end) or 24 games (on the high end), Atlanta will be sitting right where it is now in the Eastern Conference hierarchy.

This isn’t a shot at Johnson, whose ability to create shots for himself and teammates is a valuable skill. But Johnson doesn’t get to the foul line that often for someone who dominates the ball as much as he does, and he’s not as efficient a scorer as many believe. That goes double when Johnson is shooting just 41 percent overall and 26 percent from three-point range, as he is this season.

Some Hawks fans have been saying for a while now that Atlanta needs to shift some of the offensive burden from Johnson to other players who have historically scored more efficiently — Josh Smith and, especially, Al Horford. Some of those fans have also frowned as Marvin Williams’ offensive role has been marginalized over the last two-plus seasons.

Rookie coach Larry Drew took a key step toward addressing those concerns by implementing a motion offense and scrapping the team’s stubborn reliance on isolations for Johnson. Smith and Horford are using up more possessions than ever before, while Johnson is using up fewer than in any season since 2006-07, according to Basketball-Reference. The change has been a boon in particular for Horford, whose scoring and assists are way up, despite a drop in minutes that has no reasonable explanation behind it.

Williams is the only one of this core trio who hasn’t seen his role change much under Drew.

Now? Now we get to see if these guys are really up for it. We’ve all had our fun complaining about Iso-Joe and wondering what Horford and Williams could do with a larger share of Atlanta’s offense. Now we get to see if they’re ready for the challenge. The old rule is that a player’s efficiency dips when he has to take more shots and play a bigger role than he’s accustomed to playing. That hasn’t happened so far with Miami’s three stars, who have seen their numbers drop, and Atlanta will be in trouble if Horford, Smith, Williams and even Jeff Teague quake under the pressure of using up all those possessions that usually go to Johnson.

An unintended benefit of Drew’s motion offense is that Atlanta is more ready for this now than it would have been in previous seasons. The Hawks have reverted back to their isolation-heavy routine every now and then, but they’ve mostly stuck to Drew’s system, which incorporates the traditional motion-style stuff you see everywhere, as well as some of Utah’s so-called flex sets.

My guess is that Atlanta will be fine. Its offense ranks fourth in the league, with an average of 110.7 points scored per 100 possessions. Let’s see what that number is in mid-January. The Hawks have actually played a bit better on offense this season with Johnson on the bench, and they’ve been better defensively with him off the floor for three straight seasons, according to Basketball Value. But don’t get carried away: Before this season, Atlanta’s offense had played much worse with Johnson on the bench.

This season, I think they can survive on offense, and that Johnson’s absence will make no difference defensively — particularly because it means more minutes for Williams, Atlanta’s best wing defender.

This isn’t going to be easy. Three of Atlanta’s next five games are on the road at Miami, Orlando and San Antonio, all likely losses on paper. Overall, 13 of Atlanta’s next 23 are on the road, and the team starts a four-game road trip right at the four-week mark of Johnson’s recovery. But only 10 of those 23 games come against teams that have winning records right now.

The fun part is that we get to watch how Atlanta adjusts. No offense to Johnson, but Atlanta games just got a bit more intriguing.

This guy makes some good points. Do you all agree with what he is saying?

[Atlantaholic]

I've been saying this in another thread. Joe Johnson so far this season has been part of the problem not part of the solution. It doesn't make us better not having him, but he wasn't giving us much of anything to begin with. Extra minutes for Craw and Marvin should make up for most of the production we were getting from Joe, which was really not very much. I expect to beat the bad teams and lose to the good teams, just like we've been doing all year. Not until Joe comes back and plays at an All Star level will this team play good enough to beat the top teams.

[Guest]

I agree to some extent...Joe's production in points and shooting % has been down, but Joe's value is not only in points but assists, rebounds and defense, he also draws the double teams, which leaves Al wide open to shoot where he has been consistent (see Indiana game in particular).....who else on this team will draw a constant double team?

It will be a good test to see how defenses play them without Joe and how they respond.

[DJlaysitup]

I dunno. Obviously it will be intriguing to watch. To be fair though, even with Bibby's hot hand against Memphis, we probably lose that game were it not for JP's unexpected offensive play.

[cam1218]

I agree, Joe has been a part of the problem this year. To be fair though, I think we have had A LOT of problems this year so it just isn't him. Joe does do a lot to help us when he is not scoring (assists, commanding double teams) but he gets paid to score the ball for us, not to pass. We NEED Joe to be a force on the offensive end.

With that said, I don't think the loss of Joe will impact our record that much. We have guys that will step up and we weren't really piling up wins with him in there anyways. The one thing we need though is for Joe to be the Joe of old when he gets back. As of now, the Hawks are looking like a 4ish or so type team in the East. If we actually want to make some noise we will need Joe to get back to the player he once was. So basically we won't miss the 2010 version of Joe Johnson but if we want to make any noise in the playoffs we need the prior Joe Johnson to show up when he returns.

[exodus]

Somehow i don't feel so intrigued at the moment.

[HalfHawk]

I can't believe my eyes... but Coach Drew just took Josh Smith out for taking a jumper. Our prayers have been answered, but at the same time, his post game is absolutely HORRID.

[Atlantaholic]

I can't believe my eyes... but Coach Drew just took Josh Smith out for taking a jumper. Our prayers have been answered, but at the same time, his post game is absolutely HORRID.

Yeah, lol. I'm not sure what a "worse" shot is for Smith anymore.