CNNSI's Small Steps for the Hawks

[AHF]

The Hawks are 6-10 since the All-Star break and 6-8 since trading Mike Bibby for Kirk Hinrich, and if you’re surprised by their drop-off, you weren’t paying attention to the big-picture indicators flashing “THIS TEAM IS MEDIOCRE!” when Atlanta stood at 34-21. As I wrote from Los Angeles during All-Star weekend, the Hawks piled up that record against the league’s weakest schedule, and their modest point differential suggested they would struggle once the schedule turned tough. It has, and they have, and things reached their nadir Tuesday night when a motivated Bulls team obliterated the Hawks and played what might have been the finest half of NBA basketball we’ve seen this season.

The narrative going around Wednesday, best represented here, is that the Hawks have quit on Larry Drew — that perhaps Drew’s long stint as an assistant in Atlanta robbed him of the gravitas/intimidation factor a coach theoretically needs to motivate a group of overpaid millionaires (Al Horford excepted). I can’t really judge that from my vantage point, and it is true that every long two-pointer Josh Smith launches with 10 seconds on the shot clock has the air of surrender. (Smith, I should note, has kept his shooting mark on long twos above the league average, so you can’t completely kill him for his shot selection — even though a guy with his skill set probably shouldn’t be taking more long twos than shots within 10 feet of the rim.) Most of the Hawks looked like they were working on defense Tuesday, at least in the first half.

But effort and organization are not the same thing, and this team can still look disorganized on defense. It was needlessly switching on lots of off-the-ball screens, leaving guys in unfavorable matchups and forcing hard rotations that left holes all over the court. How much of that switching was Drew’s idea is impossible to tell, but the Hawks just don’t appear to have a coherent plan on either end. They’ll run their flex offense, all the buzz early in the season, by the book for the first few minutes out of a timeout only to have things descend into the old Joe Johnson isolations and ho-hum Smith jumpers — the types of shots that result in Horford, the team’s best player, attempting only seven shots in 29 minutes.

And it’s the offense that has collapsed since the trade deadline. In the last 14 games, Atlanta is scoring about 101 points per 100 possessions, according to Hoopdata. That’s about what the Timberwolves’ offense has produced this season. During that span, the Hawks are taking fewer threes (Bibby’s calling card) and free throws (a team-wide problem), meaning they are even more dependent on their beloved and inefficient mid-range jumpers. An even worse sign: Atlanta’s offense has flamed out against every top-10 defense it has faced in that stretch, save one outburst against the Bucks. The Hawks’ defense is performing at about the same level since the trade as before, though it has slumped badly in the last week.

Again: None of this is shocking. It was clear in February that barring a major shakeup, this team wasn’t going to do much this season. It has no depth, in part because of Drew’s puzzling reluctance to play Jeff Teague and Zaza Pachulia consistently and in part because ownership refused to go over the luxury tax by using the mid-level exception on a reliable rotation player. And given the poor record of mid-level signings, you can’t really object to that plan; the Hawks’ long-term picture would be even worse had they splurged on Al Harrington or Jermaine O’Neal or Mike Miller last summer.

The long-term picture is what matters, and with about $45 million committed to Smith, Horford and Johnson in each of the next two seasons, it’s going to take some creativity to change that picture. Horford and Smith are going to get better; Johnson, nearing 30, has likely peaked, and most NBA folks understood immediately that Atlanta overpaid him badly with a $124 million maximum contract that runs through the 2015-16 season. The reality is that Johnson is too expensive to move and Horford is too good to trade just to clear up the long-term salary-cap picture.

That leaves Smith, whose deal expires after the 2012-13 season. Smith still has some trade value as a solid two-way player who is a major difference-maker when engaged, but the Hawks will struggle to get anything like equal talent in return — especially if they are (rightfully) reluctant to take on long-term money. Trading Smith — or Horford in a more dramatic move — amounts to shaking things up for the sake of shaking things up, since both young bigs are more valuable long-term assets than Johnson. Trading one of them because you overpaid Johnson would be a sad scenario.

Given that reality, you’d understand if the Hawks might want to take smaller steps and give this three-man nucleus a chance to make the kind of unexpected leap teams like the Bulls have proved can happen if everything goes right. Some small steps:

• Don’t re-sign Jamal Crawford. Given how grossly it overpaid Johnson, it’s weird that Atlanta’s management acted so responsibly in opting not to extend Crawford after a career season that he likely won’t duplicate. He just turned 31. The Hawks should let him walk unless they can get him very, very cheap.

• Think hard about dealing Hinrich and Marvin Williams. Hinrich will be an expiring contract next season (should there be one), and the Hawks should be able to get a contending team to cough up a draft pick for him if he’s healthy and contributing. Dealing Williams, alone or (more likely) as part of a larger package, will be more difficult and may cost the Hawks another asset. Williams is almost 25, and he hasn’t shown much improvement outside of a brief wave of three-point shooting two seasons ago. He is owed about $25 million combined over the three seasons after this one, so he won’t be easy to deal.

• Hire a new coach. Whether or not the team has quit on Drew, it’s clear the status quo is going nowhere. The Hawks lack an identity, a set rotation and (most important) a consistent plan on either end. They need a coach who can do what Chicago’s Tom Thibodeau and Philadelphia’s Doug Collins have done this season — establish a plan, stick to it and demand absolute accountability from everyone.

None of this rocket science, and even doing all of these things plus nailing the draft picks they still have (they gave up their 2011 first-rounder in the Hinrich deal) may not change anything. The Hawks know all of this, and probably held discussions, including preliminary trade talks, about these scenarios and more. Johnson’s contract is just an abominable albatross, and it has locked the Hawks into a nucleus that doesn’t appear good enough to compete with Miami and Chicago in the long term.

http://nba-point-forward.si.com/2011/03/23/some-small-steps-could-help-hawks-improve/

[NineOhTheRino]

From the Mark Bradley article:

...Tuesday they trailed Chicago by 29 points after two quarters. (They would trail by 47 before it ended.)

Did they really trail by 47 at one point?

Edited March 23, 2011 by NineOhTheRino

[Guest]

I can’t really judge that from my vantage point, and it is true that every long two-pointer Josh Smith launches with 10 seconds on the shot clock has the air of surrender. (Smith, I should note, has kept his shooting mark on long twos above the league average, so you can’t completely kill him for his shot selection — even though a guy with his skill set probably shouldn’t be taking more long twos than shots within 10 feet of the rim.)

That is like saying Jamal Crawford is above league average at shooting 30 foot 3 pointers. Just because you are above league average doesn't mean you should be taking those shots.

[DJlaysitup]

"Johnson’s contract is just an abominable albatross, and it has locked the Hawks into a nucleus that doesn’t appear good enough to compete with Miami and Chicago in the long term."

Wow! I have to admit I'm a bit stunned to read something like this about a current all-star. I mean, I personally didn't like the contract either, but more because of our ownership being tight and not being willing/able to acquire more talent (especially a decent quality center).

[BudBall]

From the Mark Bradley article:

Did they really trail by 47 at one point?

Unfortunately

[Crank]

Horford and Smith are going to get better;

exactly the reason we are in this position to begin with hes just as delusional as Hawks management ......

[macdaddy]

There's good coaching, decent coaching, and bad coaching. I've been an LD supporter all year but right now we are seeing bad coaching. Woody was decent. The whole point of changing coaches was to get someone to take us to the next level. Even if LD was doing a decent job it wouldn't be what he was hired for. The fact that he is doing a bad job should mean canning him now.

Doug Collins has the sixers playing well. Fratello could do that for the Hawks. Now I don't know that he could be a championship coach at this point but guys like Collins, Lenny, Hubie, Fratello, Brown are predictable in that they will stabilize your team and get them playing good ball. Its probably unheard of to fire a coach from a playoff team this late in the season but at least it would send a message.

[TomSelleck]

There's good coaching, decent coaching, and bad coaching. I've been an LD supporter all year but right now we are seeing bad coaching. Woody was decent. The whole point of changing coaches was to get someone to take us to the next level. Even if LD was doing a decent job it wouldn't be what he was hired for. The fact that he is doing a bad job should mean canning him now.

LD is doing a bad job, but it was a huge farce that any new coach was going to take this team any farther than what Woodson did. It's still a dysfunctional group of players with one of the worst point guard situations in the NBA, an extremely overpaid and unmotivated pseudo-star, a 'tweener with no true position at power forward, and a power forward playing center. Coaching wasn't going to fix that.