Breaking News: Adreian Payne traded to T-Wolves for 2017 1st (lottery proteected 2017-2020)

[RandomFan]

FWIW:

 

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And then this: http://www.ajc.com/news/sports/basketball/breaking-news-hawks-trade-payne-to-timberwolves/nj78N/

 

“We’ve gained a lot in this,” Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer said. “We gained roster flexibility. We gained financial flexibility. We gained a first-round pick. We are better managing opportunities for our young bigs to emerge and be successful.”

 

“No,” Budenholzer said “This deal and this opportunity was done based on its own merits. There is nothing imminent. There is nothing else that you should be expecting or waiting on.”

 

The trade was apparently in the works for some time. Minnesota coach Flip Saunders told reporters that he has had several conversations about Payne with Michigan State coach Tom Izzo recently.

 

The move is a clear indication that the Hawks believe in the high upside of their young frontcourt players, including Mike Muscala and eventually second-round pick Edy Tavares. Tavares is playing in Spain and could be ready for the NBA as soon as next season.

 

“The reality (of the trade is) the depth of our bigs and having multiple young bigs that we feel strongly about and managing how those young bigs can have opportunities and emerge,” Budenholzer said. “In combination with what we feel like we’ve gained in roster and financial flexibility made this something that made sense for us on a lot of different levels.

 

“Hopefully it’s something that is good for Adreian. It’s a win-win. Adreian will get more opportunity and Adreian’s career will have more opportunity to grow and emerge. He is a very good player. He is a very good kid.”

 

This should serve as more writing on the wall for anyone wanting us to aqcuire another Big for rebounding, or whatever else, that isn't likely to happen. The team is apparenlty so satisfied with their bigs that they felt the need to move one of them out.

 

Another wing player is what we are looking at.

Edited February 11, 2015 by RandomFan

[Guest]

@hawksfanatic must be working on an article for Whoops regarding our options after this trade.

Nope, avoiding this thing like the plague actually.

The idea that this move is to clear a roster spot is preposterous. You can clear a roster spot by waiving Jenkins! You don't need to make this move to clear a roster spot! This move is simply a way to shift assets from today to tomorrow. Adreian is a fine player who is on a cheap contract and will eventually do well in this league. But the Hawks are loaded at that position and do not need a cheap asset in that slot for a while. So they are kicking the proverbial can down the road.

Again, to repeat, this move is not one to clear out a roster spot. It's to make an asset more valuable. And hell, if you want to get all conspiracy about this then you can start talking about the savings in cap space that might signal a big move in the future. The Hawks have $58,182,724 committed to salary right now (let's ignore Ayón). That gives them $4,882,276 in cap space. They can finagle that number up to much larger through what I've already detailed before: http://www.peachtreehoops.com/2014/12/15/7384609/nba-trade-rumors-atlanta-hawks(i.e. you can trade for a meaningless player with salary and then aggregate him out with Jenkins/Mack/Scott/WHOEVER for more in return)

[Admin]

I really like Payne, but I think once the Hawks top two targets in last years draft were gone, they would have punted their pick down the road if they could have. It looks like that's what they essentially did today.

It's not a punt though. There's a very good chance the Wolves never make the playoffs in those years and the pick is burned.

[Admin]

Nope, avoiding this thing like the plague actually.

The idea that this move is to clear a roster spot is preposterous. You can clear a roster spot by waiving Jenkins! You don't need to make this move to clear a roster spot! This move is simply a way to shift assets from today to tomorrow. Adreian is a fine player who is on a cheap contract and will eventually do well in this league. But the Hawks are loaded at that position and do not need a cheap asset in that slot for a while. So they are kicking the proverbial can down the road.

Again, to repeat, this move is not one to clear out a roster spot. It's to make an asset more valuable. And hell, if you want to get all conspiracy about this then you can start talking about the savings in cap space that might signal a big move in the future. The Hawks have $58,182,724 committed to salary right now (let's ignore Ayón). That gives them $4,882,276 in cap space. They can finagle that number up to much larger through what I've already detailed before: http://www.peachtreehoops.com/2014/12/15/7384609/nba-trade-rumors-atlanta-hawks(i.e. you can trade for a meaningless player with salary and then aggregate him out with Jenkins/Mack/Scott/WHOEVER for more in return)

I meant you might be thinking who we could get via trade with the new draft pick to use. Maybe someone who's rather have that pick than Payne. We could get some close to 6.5 million in return for the pick right?

[JETSET]

More talent than the draft considered the deepest in a decade?

I'm not seeing it.

[Admin]

I'm not seeing it.

It was widely regarded as that since 2 years before the draft.

[Guest]

I meant you might be thinking who we could get via trade with the new draft pick to use. Maybe someone who's rather have that pick than Payne. We could get some close to 6.5 million in return for the pick right?

This *could* mean a larger move, but it's so obviously a good move for the Hawks that they'd be f***ing stupid not to have done this move.

You keep hold of rookies because they produce at a high rate for a cheap contract. Holding on to Adreian Payne at his current production level is stupid. You aren't using him! And if you aren't using him right now, well you might as well try to use the equivalent of him later because a rookie is like a carton of milk. They expire. The Hawks are taking their milk today and trading it to the Timberwolves for milk tomorrow because we've got too much milk as is. So why let it spoil?

I'm really trying to stay away from this right now because it is sooooooooo frustrating to see the "analysis" out there right now. It's so bad because people do not seem to understand the big picture, BUT THEY THINK THEY DO! That might be the most dangerous individual out there. Lots of parallels with this an vaccines if I say so myself.

[JETSET]

It was widely regarded as that since 2 years before the draft.

This draft was highly overrated then  

[RandomFan]

This *could* mean a larger move, but it's so obviously a good move for the Hawks that they'd be f***ing stupid not to have done this move.

You keep hold of rookies because they produce at a high rate for a cheap contract. Holding on to Adreian Payne at his current production level is stupid. You aren't using him! And if you aren't using him right now, well you might as well try to use the equivalent of him later because a rookie is like a carton of milk. They expire. The Hawks are taking their milk today and trading it to the Timberwolves for milk tomorrow because we've got too much milk as is. So why let it spoil?

I'm really trying to stay away from this right now because it is sooooooooo frustrating to see the "analysis" out there right now. It's so bad because people do not seem to understand the big picture, BUT THEY THINK THEY DO! That might be the most dangerous individual out there. Lots of parallels with this an vaccines if I say so myself.

 

[Jody23]

It's not a punt though. There's a very good chance the Wolves never make the playoffs in those years and the pick is burned.

That's true, but if they do make the playoffs, then it will be a punt. I'm thinking the Hawks never see the pick though because they'll use it in the upcoming draft to try and get the guy they really want or they'll send it off in some other offseason deal.

[sturt]

The value of draft picks do not constantly deflate like the dollar inflates.  Not sure where you are trying to go with that, but I feel like you are off base with your example.  Their value fluctuates each year based on the draft talent pool and each teams needs.  Teams may be willing to give more value for a pick in one year than another.  That value doesn't constantly decrease year after year.

 

Also, it's not a given that the pick will be 20 or higher.  It's unlikely that the Wolves will suddenly go from a lottery team to a 5 or higher seed.  The East will continue to improve and the bottom playoff teams in the East should have better records in 2017 than they do this year. 

 

Here's why I'm not "way off base." I mean no disrespect, and say that because I recognize how we often are blindly speaking to each other with no appreciation for what education each other brings to the discussion, and sometimes it can seem like condescension when none is actually intended, but rather, one is just attempting to state things as simply as possible in order to communicate well.

 

Payne represents an asset of some degree of value.

 

There is a value to having him available for use, perhaps not unlike there is value to a hospital that has residents on-call upon whom they can call upon if conditions arise that call for that to happen, though optimally you want... and pay for... your first string doctors to perform as much and as often as they are capable.

 

So, exchanging that asset of some degree of value for the right to acquire a similar asset of ostensibly similar value--though on the face of it (ie given the raw draft slot numbers), quite probably some degree of value less--in 2 years or more down the road is to lose the service/asset for that period of time. It's not unlike you agreeing to sell your car, but then to defer payment to your buyer for 24 or more months... "24 months or more same as cash," one might say... your reasoning being that you can only house so many cars in your garage at any time, and with only 5 people in your household, there's a limit to how many can be driven anyhow.

 

That last part is really, to me, the salient piece to your side of the discussion... how much do you want to pay for what amounts to insurance in the present (?). Hawks seem to be saying, "not so much." But what that question and answer fail to capture is, unlike the cars of my analogy, players have the potential for getting better if they're developed. And this is a franchise that supposedly desires to become one with a reputation for doing just that--developing players. Abandoning development of Payne at this stage is no small statement... hopefully for our sake as fans, anyhow... that they've really and unfortunately determined that their June assessment is incorrect and Payne isn't worth developing after all.

[Guest]

It's not a punt though. There's a very good chance the Wolves never make the playoffs in those years and the pick is burned.

If the Wolves don't make the playoffs in those years ill...ill ...ill change my avatar..

[JETSET]

Here's why I'm not "way off base." I mean no disrespect, and say that because I recognize how we often are blindly speaking to each other with no appreciation for what education each other brings to the discussion, and sometimes it can seem like condescension when none is actually intended, but rather, one is just attempting to state things as simply as possible in order to communicate well.

 

Payne represents an asset of some degree of value.

 

There is a value to having him available for use, perhaps not unlike there is value to a hospital that has residents on-call upon whom they can call upon if conditions arise that call for that to happen, though optimally you want... and pay for... your first string doctors to perform as much and as often as they are capable.

 

So, exchanging that asset of some degree of value for the right to acquire a similar asset of ostensibly similar value--though on the face of it (ie given the raw draft slot numbers), quite probably some degree of value less--in 2 years or more down the road is to lose the service/asset for that period of time. It's not unlike you agreeing to sell your car, but then to defer payment to your buyer for 24 or more months... "24 months or more same as cash," one might say... your reasoning being that you can only house so many cars in your garage at any time, and with only 5 people in your household, there's a limit to how many can be driven anyhow.

 

That last part is really, to me, the salient piece to your side of the discussion... how much do you want to pay for what amounts to insurance in the present (?). Hawks seem to be saying, "not so much." But what that question and answer fail to capture is, unlike the cars of my analogy, players have the potential for getting better if they're developed. And this is a franchise that supposedly desires to become one with a reputation for doing just that--developing players. Abandoning development of Payne at this stage is no small statement... hopefully for our sake as fans, anyhow... that they've really and unfortunately determined that their June assessment is incorrect and Payne isn't worth developing after all.

The future pick can be developed just the same as Payne could have been.  In his remarks regarding this trade, Bud said we have too many young bigs and having too many could potentially hamper the development of all of them.  If you don't see Payne as a good fit, you dump him now.  The other option is to hold on to him, like Jenkins, and watch him lose all trade value.  I would rather acknowledge the mistake now and acquire the pick than get far less for him down the road.  

[Admin]

This *could* mean a larger move, but it's so obviously a good move for the Hawks that they'd be f***ing stupid not to have done this move.

You keep hold of rookies because they produce at a high rate for a cheap contract. Holding on to Adreian Payne at his current production level is stupid. You aren't using him! And if you aren't using him right now, well you might as well try to use the equivalent of him later because a rookie is like a carton of milk. They expire. The Hawks are taking their milk today and trading it to the Timberwolves for milk tomorrow because we've got too much milk as is. So why let it spoil?

I'm really trying to stay away from this right now because it is sooooooooo frustrating to see the "analysis" out there right now. It's so bad because people do not seem to understand the big picture, BUT THEY THINK THEY DO! That might be the most dangerous individual out there. Lots of parallels with this an vaccines if I say so myself.

I guess I'm one of those who don't "get it" then.

The Hawks took a fresh $20 bill and gave it to the Wolves with the hope being in 2-6 years we will get a $20 bill back. But that's dependent on them doing something they haven't done since KG was young right? And barring that miracle we'll get back a couple of $2 bills!

So yeah I get trading Payne because they no longer believe in him but for f's sake make a trade for a future 1st that you're likely to get back.

[Guest]

I guess I'm one of those who don't "get it" then.

The Hawks took a fresh $20 bill and gave it to the Wolves with the hope being in 2-6 years we will get a $20 bill back. But that's dependent on them doing something they haven't done since KG was young right? And barring that miracle we'll get back a couple of $2 bills!

So yeah I get trading Payne because they no longer believe in him but for f's sake make a trade for a future 1st that you're likely to get back.

We traded a fresh $20 to the Wolves for an older but spry $10(Ray Allen or another vet who will help us win a title this year, which makes the $10 worth a $100 bill if we succeed with the vet having a few key moments in the playoffs) and another $10 when the Wolves make the playoffs in 2017 or 2018. I know you mentioned the Wolves haven't made the playoffs since KG, but we had a dry spell from 2000-2007 ourselves so...

[nitte]

Knowing that a pick later Bosnian Bear Jusuf Nurkic (7 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 1.3 bpg) was drafted makes it difficult to stomach this trade.

[Admin]

The future pick can be developed just the same as Payne could have been. In his remarks regarding this trade, Bud said we have too many young bigs and having too many could potentially hamper the development of all of them. If you don't see Payne as a good fit, you dump him now. The other option is to hold on to him, like Jenkins, and watch him lose all trade value. I would rather acknowledge the mistake now and acquire the pick than get far less for him down the road.

You guys are missing the point. It's not that we are against trading Payne. It's that at the very best we can get an equal pick do over in 2 years, although that's highly unlikely. If in 2021 the pick became completely unprotected then this trade would be completely different but the pick becomes useless in 2021.

We traded a fresh $20 to the Wolves for an older but spry $10(Ray Allen or another vet who will help us win a title this year, which makes the $10 worth a $100 bill if we succeed with the vet having a few key moments in the playoffs) and another $10 when the Wolves make the playoffs in 2017 or 2018. I know you mentioned the Wolves haven't made the playoffs since KG, but we had a dry spell from 2000-2007 ourselves so...

We could have dropped Jenkins to add a player. There's no value in trading Payne to open up a roster spot.

[nitte]

Knowing the inaptitude of Timberwolves', I fully expect this pick to be a 2021 2nd round pick.

[RandomFan]

 If in 2021 the pick became completely unprotected then this trade would be completely different but the pick becomes useless in 2021.

 

 

 

Not useless. It turns into two 2nd round picks.

[Guest]

Ya I guess that's true but maybe Bud liked Jenkins more than Payne. Also, if the Twolves don't make the playoffs by 2021, Adam Silver should move the team.