Dwight Howard needs more shots

[Dwighthoward4life]

Dude can get deep post position without doing post moves.  He is also missed a lot for open opportunities.  He should be averaging at least 17ppg.  He averages 8 shots a game.  He needs 10-13 shots a game.  Also whats up with his block numbers?

[macdaddy]

He stays home and doesn't help that much in this defense so i think that's why his block numbers are lower than normal.  He's focused first and foremost on defensive rebounds. 

I think he's open and missed in the deep post a lot too.   There is a whole long thread about this subject from a few weeks ago though so you may want to check that out.  While I'd like to see the ball get to him more, his high shooting percentage is precisely because he mainly is setup for easy buckets.   That percentage would certainly go way down if we're feeding him in the post a lot.   

Most of the guys on the court have been in Bud's passing offense without true centers for years.   A lot of them suck at passes to a guy guarded in the post.   They're starting to figure it out though.   

[lethalweapon3]

Welcome to the Squawk!

I'll note that D8's Usage% and FGAs per-100/per-36 are above last season's, when he was weighted down by James Hogden's ball-dominance.

Also, last night's game helped a ton, but as it stands, Dwight's efficiency is looking pretty good. He's at a career-high 118 O-Rating (bball-ref recipe, I haven't checked NBA.com's calculus yet). Offensive box plus/minus is back in the black for the first time since his days with the Magic; offensive win shares are cumulatively on pace to blow everything he's done on that end since 2011 out of the water.

As others note, many of those touches on coming off of putbacks, 3.0 possessions per game (as per NBA.com stats). There are just 5 NBA players averaging 2.5 or more, and of that subset, Dwight gets a score (field goal or free throw) the most frequently, and turns over the ball the least frequently. His 5.7 second-chance points per-36 ranks behind only the chair-smashing Enes Kanter. As the Hawks get better with their first-shot execution (knocks on wood), though, those cleanup chances will shrink.

I do feel like there's room to get him more halfcourt touches and plays, so long as we're not trying to Horfordize his game this season. The time yesterday when he drove with the ball from the 3-point line looked a little too scary for my tastes. And he should only be taking experimental jumpers when we're at least up by double-digits.

I also feel like Bud will direct the ball his way a little more as he improves his passing. His assist tallies are right about where they've been the past few seasons, and they could use an uptick in an offense predicated on ball movement.

It's not like he's not trying: his 40.9 passes per game rank 11th among centers (NBA.com data). And of the 12 centers who average 40 passes per game, only Joakim Noah receives fewer than Howard in return (26.2 per game); at least in Jo's case, everyone understands why.

I'll venture a guess that a lot of Dwight's passes "out" are not part of designed plays, but more of a reset after a "Plan A" play was busted. The less obvious it is that a dump-in to Dwight is a terminal point of the Hawks' possessions, the more the team will be willing to feed him.

I've fussed elsewhere that it often takes a split-second too long for Dwight to gather and make decisions when he tries to execute post-up plays (3.3 per game, down from 4.2 last season; his 0.77 PPP ranks only ahead of Nurkic, Whiteside and Drummond among 40 players getting 2.0 post-ups or more).

Those shaves-of-seconds give opponents time to react, so over a third of the time he's either (a) turning the ball over or (b) hacked and sent to the line, before he can get a decent shot up at the rim. As his post-playing role becomes more instinctive to him, he'll be more effective with the non-lob touches he does get. And if he keeps working to raise that FT%, opponents are going to have to play him more honestly.

Finally, the more he's willing to run post-to-post, the more comfortable Bud will be making sure Dennis and the guards reward the big man on fastbreaks.

You can expect his raw offensive numbers (per-game) to go down over the next couple seasons. But what helps this team as Dwight gets older is that his offensive efficiency and versatility improves measurably.

~lw3

[lethalweapon3]

On the blocks, as macdaddy noted, Dwight is challenged to contest in the post without fouling, more than he was accustomed to in the past. Clint Capela couldn't believe his luck on a few of those early possessions last night, because Dwight was essentially daring him to take the shot in the paint (and further ensure nobody's plopping more dangerous threes on the Hawks).

Howard has been helping so much on the offensive end of the floor, chasing second-chances and lobs around the rim, that he's often unable to get in position at the other end to get those customary help blocks as opponents push the ball down in transition. The last time he averaged this many O-Rebs per game was in 2009, but he was a spry 23-year-old then, leading the NBA in BPG as well.

Atlanta shooting the ball better, as has been the case in recent weeks, will relieve Dwight off the need to hang around the rim in search of wayward Hawk shots, allowing him to get back on D quicker.

~lw3