The Atlanta Hawks, RAPTOR Report 2021-22 Edition

[NBASupes]

The RAPTOR Report 2021-22 Edition - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nba-player-ratings/

What’s going on Supes. Lucky for me, I am always looking at the RAPTOR so I know where our guys are and where we stand at all times. Let’s look at the first 13 games of last season compared to the first 13 of this year. Last year we started 6-7 and we sucked but had a lot of talent. This year, we don’t suck but we can’t win for shit at 4-9. Sadly, this year we got stuck with a bad schedule where the only teams we played with a losing record, we beat, and we had more road games than anyone else by a mile.

What stands out instantly is Clint Capela who with De’Andre Hunter had our highest WAR and RAPTOR. Clint wasn’t playing exceptionally well but his defense was game changing. Offensively, I would probably say his RAPTOR is a lot better this year than last year based on this point of the season. We must remember, Bruno was his backup last year as well as JC at the 5 who struggled in the first month of the season. This year, Clint’s backup at the 5 is Dieng who’s metric wise impressive defensively and JC who’s been tremendous this year on both ends. Clint defensive RAPTOR was around 6 last year which did drop as the season went but not that much. This year, it’s a – 1.1. We cannot win games if Clint isn’t an elite impact much less even a net neutral on defense.

Hunter who had our highest RAPTOR outside of Capela with over a 2 WAR even in the first 12 games has been backup role player decent at a 0.1 WAR. That’s over a 2 WAR drop, DAMN! It’s hard to not be upset with his production compared to last year. Hunter was the #2 option last year. This year, he might be the 5^th option, so his role is massively different.

Cam who had a 1 WAR mainly since he was a net neutral offensively even through shooting struggles last year. Cam WAR torpedoed viciously in his last 8 games from a 1 WAR to a 0 WAR but his defense has clearly improved this year metrics wise even if his Def Rating is pretty much the same. My guess is it’s the same, but he was starting last year v. much better offensive players and his offense isn’t with Trae so his metrics damn bricked off back to his rookie year metrics. It’s fair to say Cam hasn’t improved metrics wise but hasn’t been much worse either. Cam must do better as well as Dre. Maybe best to put them both on the bench.

Trae been better this year to start than last year. His offense is better metrics wise without the baiting. Sadly, we have been worse. Defensively, Trae been awful, but I wonder how much of this is due to the schedule and road games where Trae metrics always was in the drain during road trips, especially against the playoff teams. It’s gonna be hard to win when your PG is rocking a -5.1 Defensive RAPTOR.

Bogi was out for half the first 13 games, but he struggled and had a negative WAR. This is the same as last year for Bogi.

Kevin is more of the same. He is rocking a -0.6 WAR and last year it was worse to start. Kev and Bogi got off to a massively slow start, but I do think Kev should start. When he started last year, his WAR went from a -1.1 to a 2.7 WAR. He had a 3.8 WAR improvement from Mar 1^st onward. Kev and Bogi was an tremendous fit but really, Kev fit well with Solo and Snell too. Kev WAR improved when he moved into the starting lineup instantly. Kev just doesn’t play well without Trae on the court unlike Bogi who can play well, either or.

Gallo had an elite WAR for us, but he only played 2 games. So, it really didn’t matter much.

Solo was reliable for us. Much better last year than this year and was in the top 5 of WAR for us last year, early on.

The rest of the bench struggled. Rondo was ass. Goodwin was trash. Bruno was super trash. Dunn was hurt. Snell was a net negative in his 3 games.

 

Honestly, we aren’t that much worse than last year or better. The issue is obvious. Capela defense which was around 6 after 13 games is now -1.1. The gap between Rudy Gobert on defense and Bobby Portis last year or Rudy Gobert and Mason Plumlee this season. We can’t win if Capela is this bad. That’s a Clint Capela/Damian Jones gap. We can’t win that way. We need a wing to step up. Last year, it was 2.4 (Dre), 1 (Cam), -0.6 (Bogi), and -1 (Kev). This year, Bogi and Kev are slightly better but still in the negatives and Cam and Dre are much worse, at 0.1. Our wings have been awful this year. To the point Solo has our highest WAR at 0.2.

I didn’t talk about JC who struggled last year with a 0.4 WAR in the first 13 games and is now rocking a 1.7 which isn’t as good as Hunter and Capela first 13 last year but much better than he was last year. We need to keep up the great play of JC and Trae seems to struggle to start seasons and this year, he’s been a tad better on offense but worse on D than even his norm.

I don’t think this team is bad. They just going through a rough patch. Honestly, we didn’t have a more than a 4-game losing streak last season to have a 6 game one this year is crazy but like I said, Atlanta got f***ed schedule wise. Generally, you want quality teams spaced out. Atlanta basically got them all at once on the road in short timing and early without chemistry. Ouch!

[benhillboy]

All of the team’s struggles emanate from only having one healthy and willing screener in John.  At the playoff peak we had 3 in John, Clint, and OO.  
 

I knew Onyeka’s impact was much larger than meets the eye but it’s even larger than that.  This offense simply can’t operate at optimum efficiency without solid screening.  The frequency of high percentage shots suffers, leading to mediocre team assists.  The wings won’t do it and Trae can’t.   Teams that set good screens in turn defend them well.  The struggles will continue until we have Clint and OO covering more space with perimeter screens and hedging and recovering on defense.