The non-DJM major storyline of 2022-23: How much production (in terms of VORP) will Hawks get from their last four 1st rd picks?

[sturt]

While it's easy to get drawn into the fascination of what the Trae/DJM/Baptist trifecta will do together, I'm struck by the thought that we have not one, not two, not three, but FOUR first round draft picks on the roster who we don't yet have a good sense for how good they can be.

And of course, one of those is a starter, so Hunter's production is especially pivotal to how this season evolves.

How many teams feature 3 recent top 20 picks on their second unit? I dunno, and not going to bother to investigate, but it's an exciting/intriguing thought to me... altogether plausible that we could see OO, JJ, and AJ on the floor together a lot, and that they could turn out to be quite a force as well.

VORP estimates

Hunter: 1.8

Okongwu: 1.5

Johnson: 1.2

Griffin: 1.0

[Gray Mule]

STURT:  Add this summer's 2nd round pick, who has already earned a regular contract, and we could have an entire team on the floor at once.  Then, there is that 1st round pick that most everyone has given up on, we have on a 2-way contract.

Youth must be served.  Are you listening, Nate?

[AHF]

On 9/24/2022 at 1:30 PM, sturt said:

While it's easy to get drawn into the fascination of what the Trae/DJM/Baptist trifecta will do together, I'm struck by the thought that we have not one, not two, not three, but FOUR first round draft picks on the roster who we don't yet have a good sense for how good they can be.

And of course, one of those is a starter, so Hunter's production is especially pivotal to how this season evolves.

How many teams feature 3 recent top 20 picks on their second unit? I dunno, and not going to bother to investigate, but it's an exciting/intriguing thought to me... altogether plausible that we could see OO, JJ, and AJ on the floor together a lot, and that they could turn out to be quite a force as well.

VORP estimates

Hunter: 1.8

Okongwu: 1.5

Johnson: 1.2

Griffin: 1.0

Whose estimates are those?  I'd love to see those come to fruition but I think they are overly optimistic.  As a side note, bear in mind that VORP is a per possession metric so merely playing more minutes won't help your numbers but being more productive in your minutes with a healthy offseason certainly will.

Last year, Hunter was (negative) -0.8 VORP for the season.  (By far the worst on the team.)  Him jumping to 1.8 would represent a HUGE improvement.  On the positive side for him, he is at an age and with positive health/offseason such that a huge leap could very much be in the offing.  I'm all for it and hope that pans out but I'd still say this is closer to a best case number than something I would project.

Okongwu was 0.7 VORP (a big jump from his rookie year).  Assuming he improves significantly this year, a 1.5 VORP would still represent meaningful improvement but seems pretty reachable to me.  Scoring volume is what held him back last season. 

For context, 1.5 VORP is where John Collins and Bogi finished the season last year.  

JJ and AJ Griffin would be exceptional to finish that high in what will essentially be the first year of meaningful minutes for each of them.  OO had a 0.1 VORP his first year; Cam was -0.9 VORP; Hunter was -1.4 VORP; Huerter was -0.2 VORP; JC put up a 0.8 VORP; and Trae was a 0.9 VORP during their first years.  So expecting both JJ and Griffin to put up better VORP numbers than Trae and JC's rookie seasons (which were both strong) seems very aggressive to me.

I will say that if this pans out that our bench will be an absolute beast this season but I would expect JJ and AJ to be much closer to 0; Hunter to be somewhere closer to 1.0; and OO to be the closest to this projection.  Again, I hope I am lowballing all of them because there are definitely some rookies who do put up much stronger numbers than our recent picks have done like Tyrese Haliburton (1.5 VORP) or Brandon Clarke (1.7 VORP).  But there tends to be only 2-4 players in any given draft who have a VORP of 1 or higher as a rookie.  (Example:  2 from 2021 had a VORP of 1 or higher and 3 from 2020 who averaged 1 or more after 2 years).

[sturt]

9 hours ago, AHF said:

Whose estimates are those? 

Depends on if they prove true.

If so, mine. If not, I got them from Spud.

9 hours ago, AHF said:

For context, 1.5 VORP is where John Collins and Bogi finished the season last year.  

Right.

What one should understand as the pretext for many of my posts is, I'm expecting a championship contending team. And on a championship contending team, several guys typically perform well, often with one or two or three putting up significantly stronger numbers than before.

My attitude... why not Godzilla?... why not Jalen?... and if he earns 2nd unit minutes, then why not AJ?

It's fun to be a fan in preseason, and I'm taking full advantage. I feel Schlenk has been building and pointing to this year pretty much since the Dwight Howard trade. He's not going to say that probably, but I believe that to be true.

[JayBirdHawk]

On 9/24/2022 at 1:30 PM, sturt said:

Hunter: 1.8

Okongwu: 1.5

Johnson: 1.2

Griffin: 1.0

For Hunter and Okongwu- their development has been unfortunately limited by too many injuries. They need to stay on the floor to fulfill expectations.

I have high hopes for JJ getting most of the Gallo PF minutes and even some backupnSF minutes if Nate ever decides to go big. (Sim to the CC/OO, JC, Gallo lineup vs Philly in 2021)

AJ is the wild card - will he do well enough in camp and preseason for Nate to be comfortable giving him minutes.