The Picks.. The Picks... The Picks... Atlanta Hawks fanbase just don't get it?

[TheNorthCydeRises]

8 hours ago, Diesel said:

The pick is the unknown.  The player is the known.  Joe Johnson was a very good player when we traded for him.  He became an even better player with us.   Those picks were just picks.   Could have been Durant, Could have been Roy Marble.   What they became was Robin Lopez and Rudy Fernandez.   You can't say that because they have potential..it's an overpay.  Just like they have potential to get you a good player, they had just as much potential to get you crap. 

 

Completely agree Diesel.

Joe Johnson back then was a guy that was seen as the next breakout star.  Billy Knight, to his credit, went all out to get that guy, so that we can construct the team around his skill set.   The only way the JJ deal is an overpay, is if one of the draft picks we gave up became more significant than JJ.

We all know that Knight messed up his next move, by drafting Marvin over Chris Paul.  That one move alone could've completely changed us into a potential championship franchise, with Paul and JJ in the backcourt.

[AHF]

28 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

Completely agree Diesel.

Joe Johnson back then was a guy that was seen as the next breakout star.  Billy Knight, to his credit, went all out to get that guy, so that we can construct the team around his skill set.   The only way the JJ deal is an overpay, is if one of the draft picks we gave up became more significant than JJ.

We all know that Knight messed up his next move, by drafting Marvin over Chris Paul.  That one move alone could've completely changed us into a potential championship franchise, with Paul and JJ in the backcourt.

This is just where we disagree:

Quote

he only way the JJ deal is an overpay, is if one of the draft picks we gave up became more significant than JJ.

I would say the way we overpay is if we gave up more than we needed to do to get the trade done.

 

If you buy a stock that you believe will be worth $20 for $15 is that an overpay if it ends up being worth $20?

You would say it is not by your standard because $20 > $15.

If the market price for the stock at the time of the purchase is $12 then I would say it was an overpay because $15 > $12.

 

We are fundamentally talking about getting a positive return versus maximizing return.  I think both are valid ways of measuring but we are talking past one another if we are using different criteria.  I agree that under your standard the JJ trade was not an overpay.  The debate around whether JJ was overpaid was using my criteria not yours. 

For me, the DM trade was an overpay because the picks weren't protected which led us to pay more than was market.

[Wretch]

52 minutes ago, AHF said:

This is just where we disagree:

I would say the way we overpay is if we gave up more than we needed to do to get the trade done.

 

If you buy a stock that you believe will be worth $20 for $15 is that an overpay if it ends up being worth $20?

You would say it is not by your standard because $20 > $15.

If the market price for the stock at the time of the purchase is $12 then I would say it was an overpay because $15 > $12.

 

We are fundamentally talking about getting a positive return versus maximizing return.  I think both are valid ways of measuring but we are talking past one another if we are using different criteria.  I agree that under your standard the JJ trade was not an overpay.  The debate around whether JJ was overpaid was using my criteria not yours. 

For me, the DM trade was an overpay because the picks weren't protected which led us to pay more than was market.

This is exactly my point. We are talking past each other in here. JJ is clearly worth the settled cost. No one would argue that. We simply put in a higher bid than necessary to secure him. Both statements are accurate. 

DJ's cost is unknown.  He is worth an infinite number of Priest Lauderdales and Sheldon Williams'.  He's not worth a single Luka Doncic...let alone 3. 

I love DJ and I think he's worth gambling on, but I'd fold on three unprotected picks.  That is too rich for my tastes. 

[Diesel]

1 hour ago, Wretch said:

This is exactly my point. We are talking past each other in here. JJ is clearly worth the settled cost. No one would argue that. We simply put in a higher bid than necessary to secure him. Both statements are accurate. 

DJ's cost is unknown.  He is worth an infinite number of Priest Lauderdales and Sheldon Williams'.  He's not worth a single Luka Doncic...let alone 3. 

I love DJ and I think he's worth gambling on, but I'd fold on three unprotected picks.  That is too rich for my tastes. 

The problem is... By What Standard?

How much does a star going into his prime cost?

At that point, BK decided it was  a player that we couldn't find a role for and 2 FRPs with protections. 

At the time, we traded for Joe, he was coming off of a pretty good season...

17/5/3 on 46% from the field and 47% from three.  You see the numbers, I rounded down. 

His three point percentage was 47.8% on 4.5 attempts... and this wasn't even the modern NBA. 

The question is WHAT SHOULD THAT COST??  

You wanted him for a straight up swap for Diaw?  Or maybe Diaw and a 1st round pick that was protected?

If you were the GM for Phoenix would you have been happy to send your 23 year old 47.8% shooting from three player who was known as a very good defensive player...  Away for Diaw and 1 protected FRP??

Just a little something...

This is the 3Pt percentage leaderboard for the year we took him.  Only Damon Jones and Chauncey Billups have more attempts than JJ.. and JJ scored more points than both of them.   That was championship Chauncey Billups "Mr. Big Shot". 

So again.. What do you charge for that?  How much should that cost?   Boris Diaw and 2 protected FRP is an overpay??   BS.

Here's the PROBLEM

This problem is indicative of most Atlanta Hawks fans.  For us... First Round Picks are magical.  We believe that First round picks are franchise changing.  We value first round picks more than we value actual talented players.   We have this unrealistic view of first round picks in the face of a mountain of evidence to the contrary.

These are the facts...

1. The Hawks have never prospered from a FRP (with the exception of Al Horford and Jason Terry). 
2. Our best players have come about because of Trade... even trade of FRPs. 
3. Our FRPs normally end up as average to above average players.  Like Terry, Teague, Childress, Smoove, Marvin, JC, etc.

So when we have this skewed view of FRPs, it's the only possibility that we "Overpaid" whenever we have used them in trade... regardless of what we got.   We could have got Shaq in his prime for the same deal and people would still be saying.. We overpaid.

 

[AHF]

9 minutes ago, Diesel said:

These are the facts...

1. The Hawks have never prospered from a FRP (with the exception of Al Horford and Jason Terry). 

 

Other than Bob Petit, Trae Young, Lou Hudson, Josh Smith, Lenny Wilkens, Cliff Hagan, Jalen Johnson, Kevin Willis, John Collins, Tree Rollins, Kevin Huerter, Doc Rivers, Onyeke Okongwu, Jeff Teague, Plastic Man, etc.  I mean our one NBA championship was built around our own FRPs and our only ECF wins were driven largely by our own FRPs but we have never prospered from a first round pick.  Sure.

(Again, I'm not as interested in the JJ trade which was obviously controversial for value historically but more interested in the DM trade which I think was a clearer overpay / unwise decision not to protect our picks.)

[Diesel]

Just now, AHF said:

Other than Bob Petit, Trae Young, Lou Hudson, Josh Smith, Lenny Wilkens, Cliff Hagan, Jalen Johnson, Kevin Willis, John Collins, Tree Rollins, Kevin Huerter, Doc Rivers, Onyeke Okongwu, Jeff Teague, Plastic Man, etc.  I mean our one NBA championship was built around our own FRPs and our only ECF wins were driven largely by our own FRPs but we have never prospered from a first round pick.  Sure.

(Again, I'm not as interested in the JJ trade which was obviously controversial for value historically but more interested in the DM trade which I think was a clearer overpay / unwise decision not to protect our picks.)

Talking about modern day.. let's say since BK...

So Bob, Lenny, Cliff, Lou, Kevin, Tree, Doc, and Plastic... they can move on. (You know how I feel about the St. Louis Hawks). 

Second.   we're talking about players we didn't trade for...  So Trae... is a bye bye. 

That leaves us with:   Josh Smith, John Collins, OO, Jeff Teague...   The big 4. 

BK was named GM 22 years ago.  SO in 22 years, we have 6 guys who we can consider as being good draft picks...  Now, Let's go into more detail with these Big 4 under consideration...

How many Allstar appearances?  Considering all of them...   1 Allstar.

How many NBA player of the month?  Considering all of them....   1 NBA Player of the Month. 

Sadly, the player of the Month and the Allstar was shared with the rest of Bud's Allstars. 

So in 22 years, we have only come up with 2 players as a franchise who can go to more than 1 allstar games and have been player of the Month Multiple times... and both of these players were players we traded for. 

 

[Wretch]

1 hour ago, Diesel said:

The problem is... By What Standard?

How much does a star going into his prime cost?

At that point, BK decided it was  a player that we couldn't find a role for and 2 FRPs with protections. 

At the time, we traded for Joe, he was coming off of a pretty good season...

17/5/3 on 46% from the field and 47% from three.  You see the numbers, I rounded down. 

His three point percentage was 47.8% on 4.5 attempts... and this wasn't even the modern NBA. 

The question is WHAT SHOULD THAT COST??  

You wanted him for a straight up swap for Diaw?  Or maybe Diaw and a 1st round pick that was protected?

If you were the GM for Phoenix would you have been happy to send your 23 year old 47.8% shooting from three player who was known as a very good defensive player...  Away for Diaw and 1 protected FRP??

Just a little something...

This is the 3Pt percentage leaderboard for the year we took him.  Only Damon Jones and Chauncey Billups have more attempts than JJ.. and JJ scored more points than both of them.   That was championship Chauncey Billups "Mr. Big Shot". 

So again.. What do you charge for that?  How much should that cost?   Boris Diaw and 2 protected FRP is an overpay??   BS.

Here's the PROBLEM

This problem is indicative of most Atlanta Hawks fans.  For us... First Round Picks are magical.  We believe that First round picks are franchise changing.  We value first round picks more than we value actual talented players.   We have this unrealistic view of first round picks in the face of a mountain of evidence to the contrary.

These are the facts...

1. The Hawks have never prospered from a FRP (with the exception of Al Horford and Jason Terry). 
2. Our best players have come about because of Trade... even trade of FRPs. 
3. Our FRPs normally end up as average to above average players.  Like Terry, Teague, Childress, Smoove, Marvin, JC, etc.

So when we have this skewed view of FRPs, it's the only possibility that we "Overpaid" whenever we have used them in trade... regardless of what we got.   We could have got Shaq in his prime for the same deal and people would still be saying.. We overpaid.

 

I would really like to stop talking past each other.

Diesel, I agree with you. Pause and digest that. This is another example of the polarized/binary conversations we have in here. I don't want first round picks right now. I don't want to rebuild. I would rather mortgage the future for immediate talent. I think it was wise to give up first round picks for DJ. I think it was wise to give up unknown, protected, first round picks for Joe Johnson. We're not in disagreement there. Where we disagree is what a proper bid is and a little bit of revisionist history.

Prior to becoming a free agent, Joe Johnson could not secure a contract with Phoenix. He was frustrated with his contract situation, he was frustrated with the negotiations, and he was frustrated with being the fourth option. We put in a max contract offer for him and he asked his ownership not to match it.

Robert Sarver was known for running a tight payroll. No one other than Cleveland had the cap space to make an offer for Joe Johnson and they pivoted to Jerry Stackhouse. No one else even showed any real interest. Joe was a very good player, but not proven as a star. My opinion, and that of sources at the time, is that we could have just sat on the max contract offer and Phoenix would not have matched it. Certainly Boris and a first round pick would have gotten it done.  My assertion is that we bid against ourselves. Regardless of what we paid, It was more than we had to. 

We will have to agreed to disagree on that...but this is something that infamously fractured our front office much like it is doing you and I right now. 

In terms of DJM, all I'm saying is those pics should have been structured the way JJ's trade was. As it were, my opinion is that three unprotected firsts in succession is too rich for my taste. We will have to agree to disagree on that as well. 

[AHF]

1 hour ago, Diesel said:

 

Second.   we're talking about players we didn't trade for...  So Trae... is a bye bye. 

 

 

Fundamentally flawed approach.  You either count Luka or Trae.  We had a pick in that draft.

[Diesel]

59 minutes ago, AHF said:

Fundamentally flawed approach.  You either count Luka or Trae.  We had a pick in that draft.

Or Jaren Jackson.  Or Wendell Carter.  Or MiKeal Bridges.  Or Colin Sexton. 

What we know is that we traded down for the 5th pick.   What we don't know is what our true feelings about Luka were.  O... But don't trust me... Let's hear from Schlenk...

Schlenk said the Hawks felt they'd be happy with "five or six" prospects from the draft.

"So we felt like going back a couple spots we were still gonna get a player we really liked. One of the things that we had said all along is that it's gonna take another first-round pick," he said.

We took Dallas' pick.  But just imagine had it been Memphis?  We could have gotten Jaren Jackson Jr.  and then had another lottery pick in the next draft. 

To hear our GM say that means that we were not locked in on Luka or Trae.  We were about increasing our chances in the lottery.