Lottery Scenarios and Probabilities!

[CBAreject]

So, this was requested recently. Here are the probabilities I calculated for different scenarios.

1) Picking 1st: 10.4%

2) Picking 2nd: 12.4%

3) Picking 3rd: 12.1%

4) Picking 6th: 15.1%

5) Picking 7-9: 49.9%

Scenario #5 can be divided into 3 distinct scenarios, but that is very time consuming, and I've already spent too much time making the excel chart to calculate scenarios 3 and 4.

Nicholas, here are the number of balls:

1: 250

2: 200

3: 157

4: 105

5: 104

6: 64

7: 44

8: 29

9: 18

10: 11

11: 7

12: 6

13: 5

To calculate the probability that the Hawks pick 3rd, given that the 1 and 2 teams pick 1st and 2nd, respectively,

P = (250/1000)*(200/(1000-250))*(104/(1000-250-200)).

So, that's (probability of team 1 picking 1st) x (prob. of team 2 picking 2nd, given that team 1 has chosen 1st) x (prob. team 5 picks 3rd, given that team 1 and 2 have chosen 1st and 2nd, respectively)

These must be summed for every combination of teams picking 1st and 2nd (excel).

[Nicholasp27]

yeah, it's very time consuming and not worth the time right now

thanks for doing 2,3,6 though, as now we know we have a 50.1% chance of being top 6, which backs up my argument against the "you gotta believe we'll be at least top 6" statement

assuming smith falls to 6 (as seen on many mocks), that means we have just over 50% chance of getting him

the good news is, some teams may take deng over howard!

if so, then we could just get #3, which we have a 34.9% chance of getting in top 3 to get howard then!

the only problem i have with your numbers is that there is a higher chance of picking 2nd than 3rd, but that can't be true, as we'll have a higher % of balls once the 2nd team is out of the running

[phoostal]

You guys must have a lot of time on your hands to come up with these figures. Nice work.

We will end up in the top 3 regardless. To me it is pretty simple, we defy the odds and end up in the top 3 or we will trade up into the top 3.

P

[AHF]

Quote:

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So, this was requested recently. Here are the probabilities I calculated for different scenarios.

1) Picking 1st: 10.4%

2) Picking 2nd: 12.4%

3) Picking 3rd: 12.1%

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Without trying to ask for a detailed explanation, I don't understand how our odds of getting the third pick are worse than getting the second pick when there will be less competition for the third pick no matter who gets the second pick. It seems to me that in every scenario where X team gets the first pick there are then 11 scenarios where Y team gets the second pick and for every such scenario where the Hawks don't get the second pick their odds of getting the third pick would then be better than the odds of getting the second pick. I can't come up with a single scenario in which the Hawks' odds would drop for getting the third pick as compared to the second with the same team getting the first pick.

[AHF]

NBAdraft.net also lists the probabilites for all teams for all picks and lists the following:

http://www.nbadraft.net/lottery.asp

#1 - 10.5%

#2 - 11.22%

#3 - 12.14% (top 3 pick - 33.86%)

#4 - 0%

#5 - 0%

#6 - 24.25% (top 6 pick - 58.11%)

#7 - 33.89%

#8 - 7.78%

#9 - .33%

#10-14 - 0%

[CBAreject]

The probability of picking 2nd is 11.2%. I made a mistake in the calc's. I forgot to exclude atlanta as one of the teams that could pick 1st. Once that scenario is excluded, it drops the probability to 11.2%.

So,

1st: 10.4%

2nd: 11.2%

3rd: 12.1%

I also must've miscalculated 6th....

Some mathdude on NBAdraft.net has them correct, it appears. Looks like I wasted some time.

[TheDude]

i want a top 5/6 pick and I want to KEEP our 17 pick. I really feel there are some guys we can get at that pick that could really be stars.

[Nicholasp27]

i agree

i REALLY want to use our 17th, either at 17 or trade jt/17 for a lower pick

but i don't like the idea of having to package ours+17 to move higher

however, in the VERY unlikely chance that we get 9th pick, we may have to trade the 17th to move up

we really NEED howard or smith...i don't care too much which one (rather howard tho), so long as we get one of those two

[jezmund]

Maybe JT/17 could move us up to around 9-10 where Josh Smith might be waiting. I think Iguodala is going to be a fine player as well.

[OGRat]

Why is it that we can not get the 5th pick? I know #4 goes to the Bobcats, but what's the story on #5?

[Weez]

there was a fantastic post on this the other other day, concerning the odds and whatnot...perhaps a sticky should be attached to this until May 15th or whatever.

[OGRat]

So its not that the pick is designated to another team? The claim is based on probabilities?

[Nicholasp27]

only the top 3 are based on the luck of the draw

after those 3 are drawn, the rest of the lottery teams just fall in order

we are 5th after the clippers

so if 1,2,3 go by the odds, then bobcats will be 4th, clips 5th, us 6th

if someone behind us leapfrogs into top 3, then bobcats will be 4th, the 1/2/3 team that didn't get in will be 5th, lac will be 6th, we'll be 7th

and so on, down to all 3 top winners being teams with less balls than us, putting orlando at 5, chi at 6, wash at 7, clips at 8, us at 9

basically, we can't get #5 because we lost a coin toss to the clips

or to put it another way, we won too many meaningless games at the end of the season

[Lascar78]

Quote:

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or to put it another way, we won too many meaningless games at the end of the season

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but boy that bobby sura looked good! Maybe now we can give him a bigger contract than he's worth...

ok enough sarcasm for today

[OGRat]

Thanks. I thought the top 8 were by the draw.