Insider (Ford): Stocks Rising and Falling

[Weez]

Williams rising; Fazekas fallingBy Chad Ford, ESPN Insider

Chad Ford Archive

The NCAA Tournament has created its fair share of NCAA stock boosts in the past.

Carmelo Anthony's performance for Syracuse single-handedly raised his stock to the level of LeBron James'.

For most players, the bumps are much smaller, in either direction. At times, scouts do become enamored of or disenchanted with what a player does in the tournament to the point that they ignore the prospect's entire body of work. But for the most part, the idea of a player's stock rising or falling based on one nationally televised performance is overrated.

Lead a team to a championship and you'll get a great bump.

Score 25 points in one game, or go 0-for-10 from the field in a stunning loss, and your stock fluctuation is much more incremental.

Most NBA scouts put more emphasis on draft workouts and a player's entire career than they do on one or two tournament games.

Still, with the entire league watching, and many top executives tuning in for the first time, players can impress. Scouts like to see what players do under intense pressure. How do the players respond? Do they have the leadership qualities it takes? Are they winners?

After watching hours of NCAA games and consulting with the same group of scouts that Insider has been relying on for the past few years, here's a look at who has helped and hurt themselves so far at the Big Dance.

STOCK UP

Marvin Williams, SF, North Carolina

The line: 20 ppg, 11.5 rpg, 70 percent shooting in 24.5 mpg

The skinny: Williams was already a consensus top-three pick heading into the tournament. But his spectacular play in the first two games strengthens what we've been saying for the past six weeks – as far as NBA prospects go, he's the top guy on the board. Williams got it done both inside and outside Sunday, hitting two big 3-pointers and gritting out points inside. His versatility and poise for an 18-year-old are remarkable. That he saved his two best games of the year for the tournament speaks volumes about his potential. If Williams were playing 35 minutes per game, as most players with his talent do, his numbers would be off the charts. Williams remains on the fence about declaring for the NBA, but once UNC coach Roy Williams and Marvin Williams' family start getting real feedback from NBA teams about where the player's stock is, it's tough to imagine that he won't at least test the waters. Wake Forest's Chris Paul might be drafted ahead of Williams by a point-guard-starved team, but in Insider's eyes, Williams is the best prospect on the board.

Morrison excelled even in Gonzaga's loss to Texas Tech on Saturday.Adam Morrison, SF, Gonzaga

The line: 26 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 3.5 apg, 54 percent shooting

The skinny: No one did more to help his stock this weekend than Morrison. Said one NBA executive, "He was the closest thing to Larry Bird that I've seen. The way he moves, the way he sees the floor and the confidence that he has in his game. He's going to be really, really good." The one knock on Morrison is that he's not a great 3-point shooter. Since we're doing Bird comparisons here, it's probably worth pointing out that Bird wasn't much of a 3-point shooter either when he came into the league – shooting just 26 percent from 3 from 1980 to 1985. While scouts will still complain about Morrison's relative lack of athleticism, he has enough to play in the league. He claims he's leaning toward the draft. If Morrison's in, scouts still vary on his draft position. Some project him in the late lottery, others in the mid-first round.

Andrew Bogut, F/C, Utah

The line: 17 ppg, 11 rpg, 4 apg, 65 percent shooting

The skinny: Bogut picked up the rep as the top player in the draft midseason when an NBA executive told a columnist that Bogut was hands-down the best prospect in the draft. I know the executive who said it, and based on his track record, I'd take it with a serious grain of salt. That's not to say Bogut isn't a great prospect. He has had a fantastic year and is the best big man prospect in college basketball. He helped himself in the tournament, showing his toughness in the paint and his finesse on the perimeter. His seven assists against Oklahoma underscore that he's one of the best passing big men we've seen in a while. The Utes basically ran the offense through him on Saturday, and Bogut handled it beautifully. The comparisons to Brad Miller and Vlade Divac are dead on. He might not have the athleticism to be a superstar in the league, but Bogut is for real. He's a lock for the top five and will probably be in the top three on draft night.

Julius Hodge, G/F, North Carolina State

The line: 18 ppg, 7.5 apg, 5 rpg, 59 percent shooting

The skinny: After a stellar junior season, Hodge has struggled this year to the point that his stock has slipped out of the first round. He has done a lot to remind scouts what they like about him this past weekend. He has great ballhandling skills for a 6-foot-7 kid, sees the floor, is unselfish and plays with a lot of heart. He played with great determination in the UConn game, essentially putting the Wolfpack on his back and carrying them past the Huskies. Given how bad this North Carolina State team really is, Hodge's heroics are all the more impressive. He might have done enough to put him back into contention to become a first-round pick.

David Lee, PF, Florida

The line: 17 ppg, 9 rpg, 3 bpg, 59 percent shooting

The skinny: After an unspectacular first three years, Lee finally lived up to some of his promise this year in Florida. This past weekend, he showed a wider audience what he'd been doing most of the season. His aggressiveness around the basket and rebounding have improved to the point that Lee is getting a lot of attention from scouts right now. He has the athleticism, size and post moves to make it in the league. His assertiveness versus Villanova will go a long way toward helping him move his stock into the late first round.

STOCK DOWN

Nick Fazekas, PF, Nevada

The line: 10.5 ppg, 10 rpg, 23 percent shooting

The skinny: Fazekas was a hot name a few weeks ago after putting up huge numbers for Nevada. Now he's in the ice age after two consecutive awful performances in the tournament. He just doesn't have the strength to compete yet at the highest level. After flirting with the draft for the past few months, Fazekas announced Sunday night that he's returning for his junior season. That's the best decision he made all weekend.

Joey Graham, SF, Oklahoma State

The line: 7.5 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 40 percent shooting

The skinny: Graham's stock has steadily risen all year based on his superior athleticism, strength and a growing offensive repertoire. The scouts who weren't on the bandwagon always complained that Graham can disappear at times on the court – something that shouldn't happen to a guy with his physical skills. His detractors were proven right in the first two NCAA games as Graham was a virtual nonfactor on both ends of the court. He didn't play poorly, per se; he just didn't do much of anything. What impact will this have on his draft stock? It might have a little, but don't get too carried away. He has consistently produced for Oklahoma this year and has all the physical tools you want in a small forward. A good game or two in the next set of games and Graham is right back. If he continues to play poorly, his stock might slip a little, but Graham is still pretty firmly planted in the mid-first round.

Hakim Warrick, SF/PF, Syracuse

The line: 21 points, 12 boards, 10 turnovers

The skinny: You could look at Warrick's numbers – minus the turnovers – and say he had an amazing game in the Orange's shocking first-round loss to Vermont. He played as hard as anyone can play and went down swinging. Warrick's strengths – athleticism and heart – were all on display Friday. But so were his weaknesses. His 10 turnovers cost Syracuse the game. He kept spinning into the second man of the double team, acting as if he'd never seen that ploy before. Vermont doesn't have the athletes to guard him, but the Catamounts did a good job getting physical with him and he wore down as the game went on. The past few weeks, a couple of scouts have started to talk about Warrick as a lottery pick – something Insider hasn't heard serious discussion about since he was a sophomore. Warrick has improved his midrange game and started to show a few signs of a low-post game. However, his performance Friday is what gives scouts pause. The best comparison you can make to Warrick might be Stromile Swift. Only at LSU, Swift was bigger and a much better shot blocker. Warrick plays harder, but that's about the only area where he trumps Swift. Both still struggle with a real feel for the game. Consider what we know now about Swift. Then subtract a few inches in stature, some muscle and Swift's shot blocking. All those factors considered, how high would Warrick go? The game Friday night didn't do much to help his stock.

Charlie Villanueva, PF, UConn

The line: 19 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 60 percent shooting

The skinny: Villanueva is a big guy with lottery talent. He can score inside and outside and is capable of taking over the game when he puts his mind to it. The problem – as scouts who follow UConn closely will tell you (living in Connecticut, I see 80 percent of their games) – is that you're never quite sure when he'll put his mind to it. Coach Jim Calhoun has had to ride Villanueva hard to get him to play hard – something most NBA coaches don't want to mess with. Against North Carolina State, Villanueva's defensive lapses were awful and his attitude (and lack thereof, at times) created enough problems for Calhoun that the coach pulled him from the game at one point. Villanueva's the classic case of a lottery talent controlled by an NBDL head. The scouts Insider consults all claim that while they love his game, none of them would touch him in the lottery. He might need another year of school, and consistent performances, to erase the bad taste he has left in everyone's mouth.

Taylor Coppenrath, PF, Vermont

The line: 16 ppg, 9 rpg, 29 percent shooting

The skinny: Coppenrath wasn't terrible, but he had to be great if he was going to convince scouts that his game translates at the next level. What scouts saw was that when teams clamped down on him defensively, he struggled to get good shots off and to get his position in the paint. A great camp in Portsmouth and Chicago could still help him, but his stock didn't get the boost it needed in the tournament.

THE REST

Chris Paul, PG, Wake Forest: Paul didn't shoot the ball particularly well, but he had a solid performance overall. The talk right now is that he'll return to Wake for a third and final season there. If that remains the case, then the NBA was the big loser from Wake's early ouster.

Chris Taft, PF, Pittsburgh: After a season of up-and-down performances, Taft came through for Pittsburgh on Thursday. He had 13 points and 13 rebounds and played with the energy that has been lacking most of the season. While some scouts are hung up with his sleep-inducing year, once Taft gets into workouts, his stock is going to be back on the rise.

Nate Robinson, G, Washington: After a so-so opening night performance, Robinson lit up Pacific with great shooting, and added an amazing seven rebounds while also doing a nice job as a playmaker. If he can show passable point-guard skills, the chances of him sneaking into the first round are high.

Salim Stoudamire, SG, Arizona: Stoudamire is the best shooter in college basketball right now, and he showed off his incredible range again Sunday versus UAB, going 5-for-11 from 3. Not sure he's in the first round, but if he isn't, he'll be one of the first guys off the board in the second.

Rajon Rondo, PG, Kentucky: He's not ready for the NBA just yet, but give Rondo another year and he has the chance to play his way into the lottery. He still has to work on his jumper, but his poise at his age is remarkable.

Jared Dudley, G/F, Boston College: BC laid an egg in the second round, but it wasn't Dudley's fault. His versatility, guard skills, rebounding and shooting for a guy who's 6-foot-8 make him a legit first-round prospect in the future.

Chad Ford covers the NBA draft for ESPN Insider.

[Buzzard]

Good article. Williams vs Bogut, that is going to be a tough call. To bad we cannot take both!

[mrhonline]

Quote:

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I know...who said it, and based on his track record, I'd take it with a serious grain of salt.

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Is it just me -or- does that sound like a better description of Ford's "insider" reports?

Anyways, the rise of Marvin Williams is making me impatient for the draft lottery. It's exciting to think that the Hawks are going to get a solid pick as long as they draft somwhere either #1, 2, or 3.

Hope springs eternal...

[Bulldog]

I'd go with Bogut. There are just so few legitimate skilled 7-0 centers in the league that he could create real match up problems. There are many more exciting wing men to be got in free agency when they are proven.

I know the Kandi man bombed big time, but he was from a small school and it was a risk. Bogut has handled pressure in a good programme.

[missedtackle]

The word around both Chapel Hill and Bremerton, at the moment anyway, is that you'll have to wait another year for Marvin's services...