I dunno I look at the future of the league and see all these skilled legit bigs like Porzingis, Embiid, AD, KAT, Jokic and then the big ball handlers with poor jumpers like Giannis and Simmons, and I think a top tier defensive 5 is going to be more valuable than ever. Especially one that can't be ran off the floor by small ball lineups. Foul rate doesn't bother me too much, a lot of great defensive bigs struggled with fouls their freshman year of college. I don't care too much about posting up big men, but fwiw I think his ability there is underrated and he'd certainly be able to take advantage of mismatches.
Bagley/Collins could work with the way the game is right now, but long term I worry that we're gonna be opening ourselves up to getting bullied by the competition that we should worry about. Both of them have kind of slight frames and (below) average length to affect these guys. So only take Bagley if you're confident that he's superior to Collins (not just marginally better). But I don't think they can coexist long term. Also I don't see Bagley as a #1 option or else I'd have him over JJJ. If he was a #1 option type then you could forgive the defense and try to build around his weaknesses. Nonetheless, Bagley is exactly the type of player I find myself loving in the NBA. Dog mentality, hyper athletic I'm a sucker for it so I wouldn't be mad if he was the pick just for that personal bias.
Trae would be hella fun. He measured smaller than I anticipated at the combine. My worry with him is that he's just gonna be too small. Boston and Philly are big almost across the board. Milwaukee obviously has tons of size/length as well. That could disrupt him offensively (can he get his shot off/finish at the rim) and defensively (getting hunted). So he's super risky compared to the other primary creator (Doncic). But in terms of flash, fit, positional importance, offensive ability he'd be a great get. Him and Collins would be dynamic and produce a lot of highlights. I like that with Trae(and Doncic) you'd immediately have an offensive identity. (Also doesn't hurt that he's the best bet in the draft to put butts in seats immediately.)