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Celtics at Hawks


DJlaysitup

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Quote:


...In reality the difference between 3rd, 4th, 5th etc positions in the lottery is insignificant...


You are insane if you believe that...play poker with me for money...

...on second thought - no - I don't need your money - It would be too easy.

Learn a bit about statistics and probabilities before you say something dumb like this again.

uglyhammer.gif

No offense - you are a new poster...read and learn.

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When you aren't making the playoffs anyway, why not lose a few games to increase those odds, even if they are slight? I agree we shouldn't tank with 40-50 games left, but at this point in the season, it's certainly reasonable.

We aren't getting Billups, our genius GM killed our remaining cap space when he traded for a 42 year old AJ.

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These are the official NBA Lottery numbers.

3. 156 combinations, 15.6% chance

4. 119 combinations, 11.9% chance

5. 88 combinations, 8.8% chance

6. 63 combinations, 6.3% chance

The difference between these odds is roughly 3%. That's 30 extra balls out of 1000. I'd love to see how many lottery tickets some of you go out and buy. 'BUT IT DOUBLES MY CHANCES!!!'

So it's better to sacrifice a season for 3% then to strive to finish the season on a positive note in an attempt to slavage respectibility for a franchise trying to rebuild on a foundation of somewhat already malconent youth.

Quote:


You are insane if you believe that...play poker with me for money...

...on second thought - no - I don't need your money - It would be too easy.


I don't think you'd risk playing poker with me. The chance that you might be embarrassed by a kid is just too great a risk. I'd even give you an extra 3% chance to draw an ace.

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Quote:


You are insane if you believe that...play poker with me for money...


Odds matter in poker because you end up playing a huge amount of hands and in the end the odds end up carrying out. People here (last night for instance) were bitching about a chance at only slightly changing our odds for one single event. Huge difference. Either way we are likely to lose the pick, and either way we will need to get really lucky.

The difference between going in 4th (12% chance at #1) and being tied for 3rd (13.7% chance), is very minute. If we were talking about doing 10,000 lotteries in a row and seeing who won, being tied for 3rd would dominate being 4th.

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