06 - 07 shooting numbers - YIKES !!

[TheNorthCydeRises]

I posted some of this yesterday in another thread. Let me post the rest. As we all know, the Hawks are a jumpshooting team. The problem, is that we're not a very good jumpshooting team, if JJ or Lue isn't taking most of the jumpers. The 06 - 07 numbers are in, and they're not pretty. I'll use the 82games.com numbers that they compiled on the Hawks this year.

( eFG represents effective Field Goal percentage. Remember, a 3 point make = 1.5 FGs in this system. )

JUMPSHOOTING

1st number represents what the players eFG was, the 2nd number indicates how many of his total shots were jumpers.

JJ - 49.8% . . . ( 77% of shots were jumpers )

Salim - 46.7% . . . ( 86% )

Lue - 45.4% . . . ( 82% )

AJ - 42.8% . . . ( 84% )

Marvin - 41.5% . . . ( 69% )

Chill - 38% . . . ( 37% )

Shelden - 34.6% . . . ( 52% )

ZaZa - 34.1% . . . ( 35% )

Speedy - 33.3% . . . ( 76% )

Smoove - 31.6% . . . ( 51% )

Analysis:

- JJ is so important to this team, it isn't even funny. The fact that he shoots almost 50% eFG from the outside is pretty amazing, considering that he doesn't have anybody setting him up for shots. How does JJ stack up to some other shooters/scorers?

- Ben Gordon: 51.4%

- Dirk: 51.3%

- JJ: 49.8%

- Allen: 48.6%

- Redd: 47.2%

- Kobe: 46.7%

- Carter: 46.4%

- Hamilton: 45.3%

- T-Mac: 45%

- Wade: 40.3% ( surprised? ) . . 61% on the inside

- Smoove's outside shooting is UNACCEPTABLE for a guy who takes over 1/2 of this shots from the outside. Smoove's outside shooting actually DIGRESSED this year, from 36% last year, to 31% this year. The number of outside shots need to be under 40% of his total attempts, like what ZaZa and Chill take. He started to do this late last year. But he only does it when he plays the 4. If he plays the 3, he's jacking up shots. So NEVER play him at the 3, always play him at the 4, even at the 5 if necessary.

- Speedy was atrocious from the outside ( eFG% of 33% ), and even more atrocious from the inside ( eFG of 36% ). Last year, his eFG from the outside was 37%, while his eFG from the inside was 53.5%. And he took it to the hole 31% of the time, compared with 24% this year. It kind of shows you that he had problems this year and couldn't play his normal game. But if he still has problems physically, he doesn't need to be on the court.

- Of the 69% of jumpers that Marvin took from the outside, 85% of those were assisted. The 41% number is definitely a concern, if this guy isn't going to go to the basket and convert. And that 85% numbers tells you something too. It tells you that Marvin isn't looking to do anything off the dribble, as far as a pull-up jumper. He's either passing the ball, or trying to take the ball all the way to the rim, when he puts the ball on the floor.

INSIDE

( this includes close to the basket shots, tip-ins, lay-ups, or dunks. iFG indicates inside Field Goals percentage )

Chill - 61.7% iFG. . . ( 63% of his shots came from the inside )

Smoove - 61% . . . ( 49% )

JJ - 60.9% . . . ( 23% )

ZaZa - 54.6% . . . ( 65% )

Marvin - 50.7% . . . ( 31% )

Salim - 57.6% . . . ( 14% )

Lue - 54.3% . . . ( 18% )

AJ - 58.1% . . . ( 16% )

Shelden - 57.3% . . . ( 48% )

Speedy - 36.4% . . . ( 24% )

Analysis:

- Like with Smoove and his outside shot, Speedy's inside scoring is UNACCEPTABLE. You should at least be able to hit 50% of your shots when you get close to the basket, so for this guy to shoot 36%, is completely unaccceptable. There's no way you can justify playing time for your PG, if he can't even make 50% of his shots from close range. But this also illustrates that something was terribly wrong with Speedy. We know that he doesn't have a jumper, but he's usually been pretty good from the inside.

05 - 06: 54.1% with Hornets

05 - 04: 60% with Golden St . . 47% with Hornets

04 - 03: 59.5% with Golden St.

03 - 02: 63.3% with San Antonio

So that 36% number he put up for us is TOALLY out of the norm for Speedy. If he can get back to where he normally is, then we'll be OK with him at the point. If not, then we need to get rid of him ASAP.

For the record, a lot of people want to compare Mike Conley to Tony Parker. Parker shoots a whopping 65% from close range and takes 41% of his shots from that distance. But he also shoots 44% on his jumpers. Last season, Parker shot almost 70% from close range, with 49% of his shots coming from that distance. That's absolutely incredible. But the fact that he's improved on his jumper, may make this guy completely unstoppable in a year or two. He could probably easily average 20 ppg if he wanted to.

- With everybody wanting to trade Chill, he's the one guy who scores from close range. On a team that has virtually no post up players, you're going to need a few slashers on your team that can get to the rim. Chill serves that purpose for the Hawks, which makes him kind of indespensible, for now. Until we get someone who can get us a bunch of points in the paint, Chill may have to stick around.

- You have to like what you see from Smoove, in this category. What we have to hope for, is that Smoove takes even more shots from close range. If he develops any kind of go-to move in the post, it should help the kid tremendously. If he can shoot in the mid 60s from close range, while also taking about 65% of his shots from that area, we may really have something here. Just keep him off of the perimeter.

- While JJ is easily our most efficient scorer, he may have to improve on the number of shots he takes from the inside. The fact that he shoots 60% from close range, shows you just how far along this guy has come. Right now, I think JJ has the best post up game of all of our guys, with AJ being a close 2nd. LOL . . that's not good. But it does show that maybe the guy we should be going to in the post, is JJ, instead of Smoove and ZaZa. If he posts up more, it may increase the number of times he gets to the free throw line as well. We'll get to that in a moment.

- Marvin. The most telling stat about Marvin on the inside, is the one that I didn't post. This probably won't surprise you. He gets his shot blocked 20% of the time when he goes to the hole. Even Reef, a guy that people used to talk about all the time getting his shot blocked, only had his shot blocked 14% of the time when close to the basket. I think this illustrates a strength and control problem with Marvin. If he can't finish, he needs to at least be able to position his body in order to get the shot off plus draw a foul. A guy like Kobe is very good at this. I'm not asking him to be Kobe going to the hole. All I'm asking him to do, is to be under control enough going to the hole, that you can draw a foul and get to the line.

FREE THROW SHOOTING

Salim - 90% FT . . 3.2FTA/per 48 min . . 4.9% draws a foul

Lue - 88% FT . . 5.3 . . 7.9%

Marvin - 81% FT . . 5.8 . . 13.3%

Chill - 79.5% FT . . 5.4 . . 16.2%

ZaZa - 79% FT . . 8.8 . . 22.3%

AJ - 78% FT . . 2.1 . . 4.4%

Shelden - 77% FT . . 4.6 . . 15.7%

JJ - 75% FT . . 6.4 . . 8.4%

Smoove - 69% FT . . 7.0 . . 15.6%

Claxton - 55% FT . . 2.6 . . 6.7%

Analysis:

- Right off the bat, you see just how bad Claxton was last year on offense. But once again, this isn't normal for Speedy.

05 - 06: 77% FT . . 7.6 FTA/per 48 min . . 13.7 fouled on shot ( NOK )

04 - 05: 76% . . 6.8 . . 10.9 ( G-St ) **** 61% FT . . 5.4 . . 14.1 ( NOK )

03 - 04: 81% FT . . 6.8 . . 12.1 ( G-St )

02 - 03: 68% FT . . 5.9 . . 11.6 ( SA )

It's like someone literally kidnapped the real Speedy, and replaced him with this NDBL version to play for us. When people question why we made the move for Speedy, it's because he was a very good defensive guard, who could get to the hole on offense and draw fouls. Unfortunately for us last year, his offense was non-existant. They could do an episode of X-Files on Speedy's offense.

- At 81% FT, Marvin has the capability of becoming a very good offensive 3-man in this league. But when you only get to the line 13% of the time, it pretty much nullifies your offense. In Marvin's defense, this may be by design, as KB pointed out in that thread the other day. Marvin, once he struggled with his shot back in December, was pretty much relegated to being a jumpshot shooter. That move helped him get his confidence back in his shot, but it took some of his aggressiveness away from him.

Here's some of Marvin's peers, and how much they get to the line:

- H. Warrick: 20.5%

- Iggy: 18.4%

- Marvin: 13.3%

- Deng: 11.4%

- Granger: 11.1%

- Roy: 10.9%

When you combine these numbers, with how often his shot gets blocked going to the hole, you see where the problem is. But you also see that he can improve significantly if he cuts the number of times he has his shot blocked in half. This may also lead to more trips to the line. That can only help the Hawks.

- JJ's 6.4 FTA per 48 minutes is a problem. It's a problem because of our situation with low post and in the paint scoring. Until we get some help down low, his FTA probably needs to be somewhere around the 9 FTA mark. And that 75% needs to be better too. Get it around 80%. JJ missed a little too many FTs down the stretch of games. Hopefully, he's working on this aspect of his game over the summer.

- Smoove's 7.0 FTA will also need to increase, especially if he focus his game on becoming more of an inside scorer. With his quickness against the 4s in this league, I expect him to raise that FTA/per 48 minute mark to around 11 FTAs. With him, we can only expect him to make 70% - 75% of his FTs. But if he's going to the line 8 - 12 times a game, I can live with that, because he's putting pressure on the other team's frontline to keep up with him.

- Like Marvin, Chill could also help us in this area. But like Marvin, his problem is also getting his shot blocked. His is blocked 15% of the time when he gets in close. If he can cut that number by 5%, he can start getting to the line more as well. Combine that with the 62% he already shoots from close range, and he may be a more vital part of the Hawks success next year.

These are the numbers at a glance. They're not pretty, but they can be improved. A good PG may help these numbers, but the players individually have to become more efficient.

[capstone21]

Interesting analysis but as far as Marvin goes...I think the numbers would be a lot different if you compare Early Tentative Marvin vs late season aggressive Marvin. They were two different players.

[KB21]

Yes. Marvin's eFG from February on was 45%. That's an overall eFG, because I don't have any splits of how many shots he took on the inside vs the outside. I do know that from February through April, Marvin attempted only 12 three point shots. Because of his role until the last 9 games of the season or so, I would guess that his percentage of jump shots taken will fall in line with the percentage he had for the year. Like I said in the earlier post, his role on this team was as a spot up jump shooter.

[Peoriabird]

Great research! Most of the time the bad outside shooting was not due to defensive pressure but rather the players inability to hit the open shot. Would another point guard help Hawk player become better outside shooter? Maybe some like Salim and Childress because Salim takes a lot of tough outside shots and Childress is a better set shooter than jump shooter. But the rest need to work on their shots and Smith needs to change his mind set.

[DJlaysitup]

Jeez...nc....you are a serious stat dude...

Ever think about WINNING.(?)

[thescout5]

Great analysis very interesting. I agree as we didn't already know this team shoots poorly from the outside and if you do that teams will play back and your inside game suffers. Smoove if he doesn't develop an outside shot will never be a top 15 player. Small forwards have got to hit the outside shot. It was interesting at the end of the season when Woody wasn't on the sidelines SW played well but then again against bad competition. I just wonder with Woody's style if it doesn't hurt the type of players on the team.

SUCCESS = THE RIGHT PLAYER WITH THE RIGHT SYSTEM

Our point guards are terrible at hitting the outside shot.If we draft Conley we better get someone to hit from the outside(Smoove,SW)Conley can break defenses down and find the open man we haven't had that since how many decades?

You look at the better teams like the Spurs they have Ginoboli,hory,duncan and parker. Chills needs to play but where? This team isn't built right thanks to BK if he would do the right thing this draft it might help with some of those poor decisions in the past.

[Peoriabird]

Quote:

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Our point guards are terrible at hitting the outside shot.

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if anything, T. Lue can shoot from the outside

Quote:

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If we draft Conley we better get someone to hit from the outside(Smoove,SW)Conley can break defenses down and find the open man we haven't had that since how many decades?

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Conley will have the same problem that Speedy had this year. He had to take the shot or pass it to Josh Smith who shot 31% from the outside.

[Guest Walter]

Quote:

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we better get someone to hit from the outside(Smoove,SW)...You look at the better teams like the Spurs they have Ginoboli,hory,duncan and parker. Chills needs to play but where? This team isn't built right thanks to BK if he would do the right thing this draft it might help with some of those poor decisions in the past.

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In this draft the player I would target to fill this need is Rudy Fernandez. I don't want a player like Salim with so many other weaknesses IMO that he is just as much a liability on the court as an asset.

I'd do Childress for Fernandez.

W