Only problem with Pau is money

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Quote:

---

With Pau's money on board, I think we would soon find that we could not afford the luxury of keeping MW, Smoove, and Shelden. For instance, let's project to 2009, with a cap around $61M, projected by me: (i make some guesses with regards to resigned salary amounts)

Pau: 16.4M

JJ: 15M (in his last year),

Smoove: 11M,

Shelden: resigned at 6M,

Marvin: resigned at 8.5M,

#11 pick: 1.85M (due for resigning in 2010)

That's almost $59M of a $61M cap in your top 6 players. You've still got potentially Solo and Zaza and Salim to sign, if you still want 'em at that point. But in order to stay near the cap, we'd have a pretty lousy bench to go along with that awesome 6. That's why I say that one of Smoove/Shell/MW might also have to go to make Pau work longterm.

Do you want Yi and a deep bench, or Pau?? It's a tough, tough call.

---

Keeping a deep bench is definitely important. This team needs to have at least 8 players that they know they can trust, with maybe 2 more guys that can play good minutes with limited PT.

But I think you're overvaluing Smoove, Marvin and Shelden at this point in time.

If we sign Gasol, it'll be obvious that Smoove isn't getting an extension anytime soon. The Hawks will let the marketplace determine his value. If his value is 10+ million, and he's still looks to be a developing player that hasn't quite broken out yet, the Hawks may balk on re-signing him. If his value is less than 10 million, they'll probably re-sign him.

The question is, what will his value be to other teams? Will they be willing to pay top dollar for Josh? If not, the Hawks may be able to re-sign the kid on the cheap ( 7 - 8 million ). I could easily see Smoove getting an Al Harrington like contract ( 5 yrs - 38 million ), if he's the 3rd option behind JJ and Pau. That's 7.6 million a year.

Shelden . . we don't even have to worry about him until the summer of 2010. Re-signing JJ or letting him go, will be the concern by then.

Marvin . . will be a RFA in 2009. But like Smoove, his value may be a lot less than what you think, depending on his role here.

If Marvin and Smoove break out, and the Hawks are just a borderline playoff team, it may be easier to just let JJ go, or trade him for a decent player + draft picks during the 2009 - 10 season.

At any rate, I kind of disagree with you about our situation going into 2009. Our numbers will probably look like this:

Pau: 16.4M

JJ: 15M

Smoove: re-signed at around 8M ( Gasol being here may limit the production numbers of Smoove, thus, reducing his market value. )

Marvin: resigned at 6M ( he only gets more if he breaks out into a borderline star. )

Shelden: 4.3M ( no need to re-sign him before it's time. Let the market determine his value as well )

#11 pick: 1.85M

So my number is around the 51 - 52 million mark between those 6. That still puts us over the cap, but it'll only be temporary. And like I said, if Smoove and/or Marvin are really turning into stars, JJ may be the guy that is expendible, because he may cost too much to re-sign.

(( sigh )) . . it may very well be another Dominique situation, with JJ playing the role of Nique . . but only if our owners are too cheap to do whatever it takes to win.

If we're just a mediocre team, JJ is definitely gone after the 2009 - 2010 season. If we're a good team, and JJ is a top 10 player in the league, one or two of the kids will be moved, and we'll move on from there.

[txsting]

I don't know maybe Smoove doesn't quite start at $10 but I think it may be close. But in 2009 I think he would certainly get to $10 in the second year of his deal. JJ at $15, Pau at $16.4, and Smoove at $10 = $41M in three players.

But the kicker is, the teams you mentioned are probably all freely spending over the cap. We are currently not allowed to do that. So, given current constraints, I still think that the Gasol is questionable for us..

But as TP astutely remarked, maybe these are all homer deals anyway. If the deal is more like #3/Smoove/filler for Pau and maybe a protected first, the deal is probably more equitable for Memphis and more doable long term for Atlanta. But I know nobody really wants to give up Smoove. Would you want Yi and Smoove, or Pau? You can credibly argue that both ways.

[txsting]

I would hope that you are correct. I think we do fall in the trap of overvaluing our own players, I'm frequently guilty of that. I've often wondered how other GM's would value Smoove - he's a very unique player.

If the numbers work out closer to your projections, we can probably make it work. My projections are more like worst-case scenarios.

[TexasPete]

I'm saying that deal is not close to happening. I followed the Bulls deal close and Noc is a RFA.

The Grizz will only trade Gasol for a great deal. The one proposed here is not going to happen. Here are a couple that they would consider...

Smoove

3

Lue or Claxton

or

3, 11, Chill, Claxton

Guys like Gasol do not come without sacrifice. A legit low post scorer in the NBA is a precious guy...as is a 20/10 guy. Dream on to all the Chill/3 crowd. If Gasol is a Hawk, that wont be the deal that does it.

[AtLaS]

Quote:

---

Pau: 16.4M

JJ: 15M (in his last year),

Smoove: 11M,

Shelden: resigned at 6M,

Marvin: resigned at 8.5M,

#11 pick: 1.85M (due for resigning in 2010)

---

I don't think money is as big a problem as it would seem here. Remember we payed JJ 20 million in his first season, even though his cap hit increases to satisfy cap numbers. So even though it says we pay JJ 15 million in his last year, it will probably be somewhere between 11-12 million.