Stat projections

[CBAreject]

This is really dumb, but we do it every year. Generally, the numbers we post add up to 120 ppg and 60 rpg making us the greatest NBA team of all time. Of course, due to injuries, the numbers don't sum so easily. For example, last year our summed ppg were 127 while the team averaged 94 ppg.

My projections are for player end of year averages, but total avg minutes will sum to greater than 240 due to inevitable missed games and injuries (and overtime). Total avg points = 111 for this team, but again, this is due to missed games. Would expect the team to avg about 96 ppg. Not projecting for Salim/Solo/AJ. The will get scant minutes unless there are injuries.

Joe Johnson

38 mpg 23 ppg 4 apg 4 rpg

Josh Smith

36 mpg 18 ppg 9 rpg 3 bpg

Marvin Williams

33 mpg 15 ppg 6 rpg

Josh Childress

28 mpg 10 ppg 5 rpg

Al Horford

25 mpg 9 ppg 7 rpg

Shelden Williams

25 mpg 8 ppg 8 rpg

Zaza Pachulia

20 mpg 8 ppg 5 rpg

Craig Claxton

22 mpg 6 ppg 5 apg

Acie Law IV

24 mpg 6 ppg 4 apg

Tyronn Lue

20 mpg 8 ppg 3 apg

Salim Stoudamire/AJ/Solo...???

Wow, I don't really have many guys improving very much. The problem is the mpg should drop for most guys since our depth has improved. I expect Zaza's minutes to drop considerably, but this will be no surprise, as he's in Woody's doghouse anyway.

I expect to get blasted for my Horford projection, but I don't see how he's going to get more than 25 mpg without some key injuries. 9/7 is very good for a rookie in those minutes, imo. It's a shame, because with 30mpg he could probably be 1st team all-rookie. Same goes for Law. I think both could be 1st teamers, but their minutes probably won't be enough to get them there now that I consider just how many guys we have competing for playing time.

[roezag]

I foresee JJ's assists going up this year due to the fact that the offense will inevitably flow through him, and this year he will have a solid perimeter shooter to kick it out to (going on Law IV's past, not necessarily his summer league) and a more consistent post scorer (Horford). In addition, I am hoping that Smoove has been working on his outside shot since he likes to shoot. Bottom line, I see JJ getting up into the 6apg range, to go with around 24ppg and 4.5rpg.

[CBAreject]

This is interesting because JJ's assists went down last year because we acquired a "true PG". Now that we have even more "true PG's", it's hard to imagine they will go back up. I also see his ppg dropping a tad because Smith and Williams are more comfortable as scorers now.

[vdunkndunk]

I think those projections look pretty good...nothing there that I really disagree with....although I'm at least hoping that Horford puts up slightly better numbers.

[Dexmethylphenidate]

So they went from 94ppg to 111ppg in one year. Nice.

Also their minutes distribution seems to be way off. Maybe you think they'll play alo of overtime games?

[Popeye]

Quote:

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So they went from 94ppg to 111ppg in one year. Nice.

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haha, Did you read his post?

[Dexmethylphenidate]

Ok you got me there.

[exodus]

I think you are underestimating Acie's scoring ability pretty badly. REmember that this is a guy who scored 7 ppg just in the last 5 minutes of games in college. I am not sure if his 3 pt shooting will translate to the pros but i am sure his midrange game off the dribble will translate just fine.

[frosgrim]

Those projections are pretty good. Even though the stats themselves don't improve that much, the players' overall games should improve as well as chemestry.

In regards to JJ's assists, I think they might go up due to Law. The kid can shoot and drive. JJ can get him the ball.

Regarding Horford: I think he'll get closer to 32 mpg. I really expect Woody to ride the kid like a horse. Therefore, I think his stats will be more like 12 pg, and 8 rpg.

Just my two cents.