Insider Request

[Johnnybravo4]

Can someone post the Hollinger article on the trade?

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/col...%3dBibby-080216

[volman]

I don't know which is more shocking -- that the Hawks made a trade, or that they made a trade that involves them taking on money.

For the past couple of years, the word around the league is (a) Billy Knight is one of the hardest general managers in the NBA to make a deal with and (b) Atlanta's fractured ownership group had been putting the kibosh on any trades that involved the Hawks taking on serious money.

However, one of the Hawks' co-owners has insisted to me for months that the team would be willing to spend but just hadn't comes across the right deal -- and Saturday's deal lends credence to his claim. The Hawks reached an agreement to trade Anthony Johnson, Tyronn Lue, Lorenzen Wright and Shelden Williams to Sacramento for guard Mike Bibby, adding more than $11 million in salary obligations for next season but improving the Hawks' flagging playoff hopes immeasurably.

Presuming the team re-signs Josh Smith, the Hawks will be well over the salary cap next year; if they re-sign Josh Childress too, they'll actually be closer to the luxury tax than the cap line. That's a far cry from where they've been in recent seasons -- Atlanta has been under the cap, often way under, ever since Knight blew up the team by trading Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Theo Ratliff, and Jason Terry in 2004.

As far as wins and losses go, this trade should also have a huge impact. Atlanta's two biggest weaknesses this year have been 3-point shooting and point guard play; at a stroke, Bibby solves both problems.

The Hawks are second-to-last in the NBA in 3-point shooting at 32.4 percent, and dead last in 3-point attempts per field-goal attempt, with only 14.3 percent of their shots have been triples. As a result, they've struggled mightily against zone defenses in recent games, a big reason the team is just 7-15 since Jan. 1.

But Bibby should fix that immediately, as he's a 37.1 percent career 3-point shooter. He'll provide quantity as well as quality -- last season he took nearly six 3-point attempts per game, though he's down to about four per game this season. The Hawks as a team average just over 11 this year, so Bibby should create help them increase in 3-point tries. And with the threat of his quick release from the outside, it should open up the interior for the likes of Smith and Al Horford.

Similarly, Atlanta's play from the point left a lot to be desired. Johnson (12.1 PER) and Lue (13.1 PER) were decent backups forced into more prominent roles; even with his numbers down in his 15 games since returning from a thumb injury, Bibby (14.0) has outplayed the two. Presumably, Bibby's subpar PER is an effect of his injury and a small sample size, and he'll return to the 16-17 range, where he's been the past two seasons.

Using that PER comparison, you can see his importance in terms of the playoff race. A basic rule of thumb is that every additional point of PER over 2,000 minutes is worth one additional win. If Bibby returns to his usual norms in the 16-17 range, replacing Johnson/Lue with 35 minutes a game of Bibby would be worth about six wins over an 82-game season; over the final 32 games, it would be more like two wins, but that could be huge given the tight race for the final playoff spots in the East.

Finally, the hope is that Bibby's addition will have one more positive effect: easing some of the ballhandling strain from workhorse guard Joe Johnson, whose numbers have declined every month this year as a result of overuse.

To an extent, this deal is an admission of defeat on two other controversial Knight moves. Last year at the trade deadline, the Hawks acquired Johnson from Dallas for a second-round pick in a puzzling maneuver -- Atlanta was barely on the fringes of the playoff race, and Dallas would have gladly paid somebody to take Johnson's contract off their hands. Though he gave the Hawks decent minutes as a stopgap solution at the point, the position lingered as a weakness all year, and the Hawks lost a potentially valuable draft pick.

The second admission of defeat is getting rid of Williams, who struggled in a season and a half since being taken with the fifth overall pick in the 2006 draft in what was widely seen as a mistake at the time. Williams went one spot ahead of 2006-07 Rookie of the Year and current All-Star Brandon Roy. He has one year left on his deal after this one and should see some minutes in a thin Sacramento frontcourt.

Meanwhile, the trade also is a bit of a downer for Sacramento. They were hoping to get a quality young player for Bibby, or at least stick somebody with Kenny Thomas' contract. Instead they had to settle for three expiring contracts and a failed first-rounder.

But more than anything, it's a sign the Hawks are finally serious about winning. A lineup of Bibby, Johnson, Smith, Marvin Williams and Al Horford, plus sixth man Childress, sure looks like a playoff team on paper. While depth is a concern, one has to think the Hawks got a leg up on their weak competition for the East's final two playoff spots, especially since several of those teams have spent this week looking at deals with an eye toward rebuilding.

And now, the pressure will be on Atlanta coach Mike Woodson to deliver. The Hawks have struggled for close to two months and have an extremely difficult slate in the first three weeks after the break, including road games against the Jazz, Lakers, Spurs, Warriors, Celtics, Magic and Hornets. The Hawks don't have a first-round draft pick and won't have any cap space, so if Bibby's acquisition can't turn them around, changing coaches might be the only card left to play.

In the meantime, it's a been a long time since we've heard these words, but ... yes, kudos are due to Knight and the Hawks. They've acted decisively to address the team's two biggest weaknesses and -- surprise, surprise -- opened up the checkbook to do it. As a result, the league's longest playoff drought seems likely to come to an end.

[Plainview1981]

With this second half schedule it's still going to be extremely hard for the Hawks to make the playoffs. This trade should have been made a month ago.

[Johnnybravo4]

Uncle Ruckus, you do realize that we are only a couple of games out of 6th and the Wizards are falling like a ton of bricks.

[Plainview1981]

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Uncle Ruckus, you do realize that we are only a couple of games out of 6th and the Wizards are falling like a ton of bricks.

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I think Gilbert will be back soon. And the Hawks could lose another 3 or 4 in a row. The Hawks have The Lakers, Kings, Warriors, Utah, SA, Kings all coming up. They could realistically lose ALL of those games.

[Dragitoff]

and they could realistically win all those games. Shut up with the negativity and go somewhere else!

[Johnnybravo4]

I don't always play the role of Patty Positive but I believe that we can 3 of the next four. Kobe still has a pinkie issue and we matchup well against Golden State, and Sacramento. I think Bibby could get us by the Jazz.

[Plainview1981]

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and they could realistically win all those games. Shut up with the negativity and go somewhere else!

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No, they realistically couldn't. They almost have to win the GS and Kings game. SA isn't playing all that great I don't think, but Utah and LA are losses most likely.

[pound4pound]

actually 20 of our last 33 games are against teams with a losing record.

[Dragitoff]

Any team can get hot at any given time. There's no reason to think this team couldn't get hot like they did in December. Yeah, they could lose those games, but why must you be so negative? Geez. I'm glad the team made a move that shows there not a bunch of tightwad cheapskates. It also shows BK can admit, "I was wrong with Shelden"

[Plainview1981]

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actually 20 of our last 33 games are against teams with a losing record.

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Momentum is a big key though. These games coming up are almost unfair. IF you're 10 games under .500 in another week and a half it can be tough. Need to sweep the Kings and beat Golden State.

[Plainview1981]

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Any team can get hot at any given time. There's no reason to think this team couldn't get hot like they did in December. Yeah, they could lose those games, but why must you be so negative? Geez. I'm glad the team made a move that shows there not a bunch of tightwad cheapskates. It also shows BK can admit, "I was wrong with Shelden"

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I'm not being negative. These are tough bunch of games that anybody not named Boston, Detroit, Mavs, Suns would struggle with. I'm not sure SA could come out with a winning record in the next 6 or 7 games either.

[BusBoyIsBack]

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I think Gilbert will be back soon. And the Hawks could lose another 3 or 4 in a row. The Hawks have The Lakers, Kings, Warriors, Utah, SA, Kings all coming up. They could realistically lose ALL of those games.

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Hey Chicken Little, that's why you should be HAPPY about the trade.

It increases our chances of winning those games.

[Nicholasp27]

nj will drop if kidd trade goes down

washington is dropping with caron out

we may have a tough schedule the next 2 weeks, but our march/april schedule is pretty nice and east-coast heavy

[BusBoyIsBack]

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nj will drop if kidd trade goes down

washington is dropping with caron out

we may have a tough schedule the next 2 weeks, but our march/april schedule is pretty nice and east-coast heavy

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Washington's schedule is just as hard as ours.

But whoops why mention anything positive right?

[TheNorthCydeRises]

It's all about winning the games we're supposed to win from here on out. No more blowng home games when we're up late or losing road games to real bad or crippled teams. That ish has to stop.

If we win 15 - 18 games the rest of the way, we're probably making the playoffs. I know people don't want to see that, because that puts us at 36 - 39 wins, but that is reality. Anything above that, means that this team has some serious momentum heading into the playoffs, and whomever we play better take us seriously.

The team to watch, is Philly . . if the Kidd trade finally goes through. They're the team with a lot of momentum now. They're beating the teams they're supposed to beat these days.

You would think Jersey will fall, but the Kidd trade might actually make them better. Adding Diop and Harris should make them a lot better defensively.

I think I heard something about Washington, that they still have a lot of games vs the West in March and April. So they may fall too.

We might have to string together 5 or 6 wins sometime in late March - early April, to solidify a spot. By that time, teams should be tanking, so those games should be a little easier.

If they play .500 ball the rest of the way, we're definitely in. It'll be nice though, if they could win 20 or more games to close the year, and have some big time momentum.

[Plainview1981]

This is not NBA live. It takes time to adjust to a new team and even with Bibby the Hawks aren't on these teams level. That's just the reality of it. If the squeak out a win or two in the next 6 games they might be alright.

[thesheedera]

Great work there by Hollinger. Makes Stein's article look like amateur hour.

[swolehawk2]

This is a very true statement. It doesn't help that he has not played a lot of ball this year either. It is going to take a minute, hope it is not too late.