My Take On The Big Dog Trade - Show Me

[Traceman]

I was out of town on business last week and I haven't been able to weigh in on the trade until now so I thought I would post my thoughts.

My initial reaction was THIS SUCKS! I certainly understood WHY the deal was made from an ownership standpoint as I would not be happy about having to pay luxury tax to keep a team together that underachieved as much as this one did last year. That being said, as a FAN, I didn't (don't) see what this deal did to improve the team now or more importantly, how doing this deal is going to make us better in the near future (this season or next season). Whether we had traded Dog or not, as long as we don't aquire a lot of longterm contracts, we should have a tremendous amount of caproom in 05/06.

As a FAN, I don't care about Hawks' ownership having to pay luxury tax. I only care that they put a team on the floor that has a chance to win. I feel that the team had a CHANCE to win with Dog due to the acquisition of Diaw. Although I think the PRIMARY reason Diaw was acquired was to compliment JT, his skill set should have been just as complimentary to Dog's skill set as it should be to JT's skill set. Now, without a big time scorer at SG or SF, I don't think Diaw will be nearly as effective as he would have been with Dog (or another scorer) in the lineup, at least not initially. With Dog out, Diaw needs to be able to score and so far, I have seen nothing from him that indicates that he can be relied upon for even 10 ppg.

Dog may not have been a good fit here last year but he DID lead us in scoring and those 21 ppg he scored are going to be missed unless we can find a decent replacement. As things stand now, I have no idea where that replacement might possibly come from. I have seen Stephen Jackson's name mentioned and I have no problem taking a chance on him, as long as it is for no more than 2 seasons. I would REALLY hate to see us guarantee him money beyond 04/05 and then watch his salary prevent us from going after a marquee FA in 05/06. I would rather overpay him for a 2 yr deal than stretch it out to 3 or more. In other words, I'd rather sign him to a 2 yr/$10 million deal with a team option for a 3rd year than to sign him to a 3 yr/$12 million deal and eat into our capspace in 05/06. I'm not saying that I think Jackson is worth the full MCE (I don't think he is) but if Knight is determined to sign him, he might have to pay the full MCE (or close) to beat out a team who might be willing to give Jackson a deal of 3 guaranteed years or more.

I have seen talk of us being interested in Odom but I have to ask, even if we are interested, how are we going to put a better offer on the table than Miami can?

Hawks' management claims that the deal will give them more flexibility to make moves to improve the team now, as well as in the future. The bottom line for me is - SHOW ME. Do something, ANYTHING, to make me believe that this deal was done for more than just not having to pay the luxury tax over the next couple of seasons. SHOW ME a Lamar Odom or another young talent that we were able to acquire due to the absence of Dog.

If the deal was indeed done to avoid paying the luxury tax and Hawks' management is conceding that they won't be able to compete for the the next 2 years until they can make some major moves, fine. I'll renew my season tickets in 2 years when they are trying to win.

[Playmaker0017]

Trace,

You mention Big Dog being the leading scorer on the team, but I point out that he stole a vast number of those shots from his teammates...

Further it took him 20 shot attempts a night to average what he did. You can't tell me that if we dispersed those 20 shots around the team, we couldn't get 15-20 points a night.

Play.

[mrhonline]

trying to win in the near future (read: over the next few years with YOUNG players) and just trying to make a few bucks (read: the L.A. Clippers). This team still has two young stars in Shareef and Jason Terry, plus Theo anchoring the middle. Another draft pick is on the way next year (and for once, the draft can be looked forward to), and plenty of room in 2005.

Unfortunately, this dry spell for the Hawks has made many of its fans impatient. But we must remember that Billy Knight is virtually starting afresh with this team, as will the new owner, and (likely) new coach.

We must see this as a new *beginning* in the Hawks' franchise, not as a continuation of the terrifying Babcock regime.

[beav]

beyond luxury tax it just gives the hawks more flexibility with signing terry and other free agents next year... otherwise they would be hamstrung by his contract...

Also robinson shot 43% (career low by far) and was 4th in the league in turnovers with 3.2 a game which is mind-boggling for a SF...

We've talked about the causes for these dropoffs (boy have we ever), but the long and the short of it IMO, is it is a combo of two things: Dog getting older and this not being the right system/fit/personnel for him. It is quite possible that we'd see similar things next year so why take the chance?

With a 43% shooting percentage I'm not too worried about making up a lot of those points. Spread some of the missed points around and add an above average defender and that is that many more points the opposition isn't scoring on him (robinson) and making ratliff play help on his man.

As far as I am concerned the hawks problems last year boiled down to two huge factors. Lack of defense and too many turnovers. As far as I am concerned they improved in both areas with the old "addition by subtraction" theory.

[Traceman]

Right now, I think we are a LOT closer to being the Denver Nuggets than we are to being a playoff team in the EC. Look at our lineup:

Theo/Nazr

Reef/Hendu

Diaw/CC

Hansen

DD

You HAVE to assume we will resign JT. That will be 9 roster spots. Unless we make a trade, we have the full MCE, our ability to match DJ's salary up to a point and only the minimum salary exception to fill 3 roster spots.

Of the FAs I see out there, I don't see ANY other than Odom who get me excited and honestly, do you think we can get him for a deal starting at the MCE? Even if he were to accept our offer, the Clips would match it in a heartbeat.

Right now, the REALISTIC best case scenario for me has us resigning JT, signing Stephen Jackson to a 2 year deal (team option for a 3rd), signing DJ and signing Kevin Willis to 1 (or 2) year deal.

Theo/Nazr/Willis

Reef/Hendu

Diaw/CC

Jackson/DJ/Hansen

JT/DD

The above lineup does NOTHING to inspire me. NOTHING. DJ's presence on the roster would be the only thing that remotely fired me up and made me look forward to the season and that's just because I like him a lot and want him back on the team. If we end up bringing Glover back or getting another SG (or SF) instead of DJ, I will REALLY be uninspired. Even with DJ, I'd be SHOCKED if that team won 30 games. Looking at the injury history with the above group, we might not win 20 games.

On the bright side, I can probably look forward to sitting courtside a lot next season as the above lineup is so uninspiring, I should be able to buy courtside seats just before the game at bargain basement prices.

[KB21]

Wait a minute.

What's any less inspiring about that line up than the line up that had Jason Terry, Dion Glover, Ira Newble, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, and Theo Ratliff in it? That line up won without Big Dog. That line up scored only 2 points less per game than the team did with Big Dog. That line up gave up 8 points less per game than the team did with Big Dog.

If the Hawks bring in Stephen Jackson, they are bringing in a guy who started on the championship team and is coming off a playoffs where he averaged right at 13 points a game and shot the ball well from the perimeter.

With Diaw or Jackson at the 3, the team is already more athletic, better defensively, and better in the ball handling department.

Losing Big Dog's 20 points a night is a minimal loss, because most of those points came at the expense of other players. With him out, Atlanta had 5 players that averaged double figures in scoring. The offense flowed much more smoothly without him, and the turnovers were lower.

[swolehawk2]

Take out Willis and add a veteran wing player that can score off the bench ...like Walt Williams or Jon Barry and that group, barring injury, with the right coach can compete for a playoff spot. It is not about what sexy names you have in the lineup...if we play together on defense....we should with three good defenders, and play to our strengths on offense..We can make it to the post season. If Detroit can win 50 games with their talent by working hard...this team can too....but it is going to take Fratello or Carlisle to get it out of them.

Theo/Nazr/

Reef/Hendu

Diaw/Wizard or Barry/CC

Jackson/DJ/Hansen

JT/DD

[Traceman]

It does NOT give the Hawks more flexibility beyond not paying the luxury tax. The only thing this deal does from a salary flexibility standpoint is prevent us from having to pay luxury tax to resign JT. We don't get any more excpetions than we would have without making the deal. We still have the MCE and minimum salaries available, that's it. We will have those same exceptions available next year. Do you think we are going to be able to use the full MCE next year to bring in a good play now that Dog is gone? What good player will come HERE for a 1 year deal? Remember, if we sign that player for more than 1 year next year, we will be eating into our capspace for 05/06.

Once the team resigns JT, even if the team uses the full MCE and signs 2 players with the vet min, the team will still be under the luxury tax threshold. The team will likely save somewhere around $10 million this season (and more next year) by making this deal when you factor in the luxury tax.

The deal makes perfect sense from a fiscal standpoint. Where the deal doesn't measure up is from a basketball standpoint. If we surpass last year's win total, I'll be shocked.

As for Dog's turnovers and career low shooting %, yes, they were problems but guys who can score 20 ppg in this league are not easy to find, or replace. As Billy Knight said, you can lock some guys up in the gym by themselves and they still couldn't score 20 points. His scoring ability is going to be missed. When Reef's FG%

goes back down next year in the absence of Dog, it will be no surprise to me. Dog may have shot too much, but he did have the desired effect of taking some of the scoring pressure off Reef. I guess we shall see.

[Diesel]

My feeling is that since we are on the Rebuild, that we ought to totally rebuild and NOT waste our vets talents.

I think LAC would go for THEO for Odom/Wilcox.

I think Cleveland might go for SAR/Nazr for Big Z/Davis/Boozer/1st (Unconditional)...

At this point I think we can resign JT and call it what it is... A rebuild.

JT/Davis/Odom/Wilcox/Big Z.

With that Lineup, we might not win them all, but at least we're not fooling ourselves. PLUS, we will be exciting with JT/Davis/Odom being our anchor.

[KB21]

Once again, was his offense missed when he missed 13 games last season?

NO!

The offense was more efficient without him, scoring only 2 points less per game and shooting a better overall percentage. They were also more apt to get out and run offensively without Big Dog.

Was his defense missed?

NO!

The desired effect of having him worked when he took less than 14 shots. The Hawks were 16-10 in those games.

The team is better without him.

[Guest]

Acutally,20PPG might be so uncommon...

Lets like at the 20PPG scorers....

Tmac

Shaq

Duncan

Kobe

AI

Glen Robinson

Cwebb

Shareef

JT

Rip

Stackhouse

Houston

Marbury

Payton

KG

Ray Allen

Rasheed Wallace

Ricky Davis

Dirk

Nash

Finley

Peja

Mashburn

Baron Davis

Steve Francis

Jalen Rose

Paul Pierce

Antonie Walker

Jamison

Mobley

Cassell

Gilbert Arenas

Pau Gasol

Vince Carter

Karl Malone

Jason Kidd

That's a pretty big list actually of 19-30PPG type of

scorers

Not to mention these guys have the chance to be 19-30

PPG scorers:

Yao Ming

Mello

Jason Richardson

Caron Butler

Dejuan Wagner

Elton Brand

Kenyon Martin

Those guys have a shot at it too....

Scoring 20PPG soon will be like hitting 30HR...It will

not be considered special anymore.

[Traceman]

Winning a few games, primarily at home against weaker teams, did not impress me at all. I was pleased with the fact that those guys continued to play hard when they were essentially playing for nothing but they did that the previous year under Lon too.

Stephen Jackson would be a decent addition but let's not get carried away here. 13 ppg in the playoffs? In the famous words of Derrick Coleman, whoopty-d@mn-do! Dog could score 13 ppg shooting lefthanded with a blindfold on! The guy shot 43.5% from the field last season to Dog's 43.2% with Dog taking 430 more shots! Dog shot BETTER from 3 point land (34% to 32%). Jackson is taller but he grabbed 3 less rbg. Jackson averaged 2.3 apg to Dog's 3.0 apg. Jackson's 2.2 topg is better than Dog's 3.6 topg but it's not exactly stellar either. Jackson did get more steals per game (1.6 to 1.3) but its not like he is a shut down defender. In fact, the reason that Byron Scott didn't want him back in NJ was his lack of D.

I hope that someone such as Jackson can make up for the loss of dog but as I said, show me. Show me that we can make up for the things that Dog brought to the table. I think Dog got a bad rap here, just as Reef said in the paper today. I guess we'll see.

[swolehawk2]

Please..Dog gave up just as many opportunities for the opposition to score as he scored. He couldn't dribble....played no defense...he couldn't even get back on defense...that is sad considering he played mostly on the perimeter.....I wish I could remember the game where he got beat down the court 3 times in one quarter......I think it was Phoenix or Orlando..anyway....all we have to do is make up for Dog's scoring....I'm sure that Jackson and DJ or DG could do that..and would not be the defensive liablility that Dog is...

I don't think you understand... 3.6 TO 's per game from the SF!!!!!....not a guard but a SF!!! and jogging back on defense ...negates his contribution offensively....especially when the only way he can score is shooting a jump shot.

[mrhonline]

Cuz' that was the Hawks record with the all-Powerful Robinson's offensive additions.

26-43. 37.7%. The Hawks were somewhere around the 4th or 5th worst team in the L when he went down. And that INSPIRED you?

You are overrating his offensive prowess and underrated the liability of his defensive, dribbling, passing, and chemistry problems. Give this new team a chance. It's not like they can be much worse than the Glenn Robinson-lead crusade.

[Traceman]

I guess that's my point. Why get excited about the season when you acknowledge that we're likely lottery bound? As for the room in 05/06, that was going to be there with out without Dog. At least with Dog, I thought we had a CHANCE to win this year. Now, I don't. It's that simple for me.

As for Billy Knight and the new Hawks regime, if indeed we are rebuilding, SAY IT. Don't feed me a line of bull about us being more flexible to go out and get more players with Dog gone. HOW are we going to get more players and WHO are those players going to be? If we are rebuilding, keep Reef and JT (unlesss we get offers we can't refuse) and everyone else should be expendable. Theo is not going to be a significant part of a team that won't be ready to compete for 3 or 4 more years so if you can go out and get a young talent for him, DO IT. I don't think LAC would do Odom/Wilcox for Theo as Diesel is suggesting but if they would, we should be all over that deal.

[CHORO44]

Dog just didn't fit into our ever changing system. He needs to be a spot up shooter who gets the ball in the right position. He's not athletic enough to truly create his own shot. On a veteran team Dog shines but on our shaky, young, overpaid team he made us even worse.

Although Dog was a 20 pt scorer he gave up much more to the other team in turnovers and poor defense. I'd much rather have JT take Dog's touches and let the SG and SF guys play tough defense.

[Traceman]

as it seems that most on this board do. It's amazing how one player can have such a detrimental impact on this team. Since we were 9-4 (69% winning percentage) without Dog last year and since he was obviously the reason we sucked, it stands to reason that we ought to be much improved with him gone. I mean hey, why can't we win 56-57 games this year with Dog gone? That would be about 69% of our games right?

If we don't make a trade and we win more games than we won last year, I'll be absolutely SHOCKED. I fully expect us to land some mid level FA such as Jackson. I also fully expect us to sign a vet or 2 with the veteran's exception. Unless we make a trade though, I'll be shocked if we duplicate last year's win total. That is taking into account that I expect JT to be a better, more experienced PG, that I expect Theo to be better from the beginning of the season because he's not coming off a major injury and that I expect Reef to play better after his back surgery. Those 3 guys will be better and our record will be worse. That is my prediction right now.

I don't think I'm overrating Dog's offensive prowess at all. Scoring 20 ppg for as long as he has is no easy feat. I think YOU are underrating how difficult it is to score 20 ppg.

As for his defensive, dribbling, passing and chemistry problems, are you sure you're talking about Dog because you just as easily could be talking about JT or Reef. They have the very same issues.

[KB21]

We weren't beating weak teams during that span. We only played Cleveland once during that pan. The Hawks beat the playoff bound 76ers. They beat the Nets. They beat the Pacers. They beat the Magic. They beat a Wizards team that was fighting for their playoff lives. They beat Milwaukee.

Glenn Robinson brought nothing but chemistry problems to this team. He will go down right next to JR Rider as one of the most meaningless players in Hawks history despite their scoring ability.

[KB21]

Because all he brought was scoring. Without him, the scoring was still there except more spread around. Without him, the defense was much better because Ira Newble and Dion Glover together brought that ability and athleticism the Hawks needed.

Wait and see.

Glenn will wear out his welcome in Philly as well.

It's funny that Glenn could never coexist with Ray Allen, but once Allen was traded to a poor Sonics team, his numbers improved, and he nearly lead that team to the final seed in the Western Conference playoffs.

[KB21]

Sigh.

Yep. JT and Shareef are obviously as big a problem as Big Dog, seeing as how not having Big Dog adversly effected this team so much last year.

JT is obviously a problem seeing as he is one of only 5 point guards to average 17 points and 7 assists a game last season, and that he had a higher assist to turnover ratio than the great Jason Kidd. I guess that means Kidd is the reason New Jersey lost to San Antonio.

Tell me something. How can you conclude that Shareef and JT are just as much a problem as Big Dog when this team won 33 games a year ago when JT and Shareef was ALL THEY HAD?

Theo was out. The team played with a part time starting back court of JT and JV, while JT and DJ started the other part of the time. Ira Newble was getting starts at small forward while Kukoc was hurt, and kept his spot when he returned. The team had no stability except for Shareef and JT. Yet, they won 33 games.

Do you expect Diaw to give this team less than Newble's 8 ppg and his .183 3 point percentage that year.

This team will at least be as good as last year's team with Big Dog AS IS. Adding a couple of veteran role players will make this team better than they were last year.