Jason Heyward

[frosgrim]

Texas also has two excellent 1B prospects in Chris Davis and Justin Smoak if the Braves want to go younger and cheaper.

Interesting.

This actually drives the price down for Blalock. Maybe Medlin and a mid-tier pitching prospect? It depends on how much salary they need to dump, I suppose.

Note: The reason I am on Blalock is that the Rangers have to reduce payroll.

[KB21]

Texas also has two excellent 1B prospects in Chris Davis and Justin Smoak if the Braves want to go younger and cheaper.

They actually have three with Mitch Moreland at their AA affiliate as well.

[KB21]

Interesting.

This actually drives the price down for Blalock. Maybe Medlin and a mid-tier pitching prospect? It depends on how much salary they need to dump, I suppose.

Note: The reason I am on Blalock is that the Rangers have to reduce payroll.

I guess the question I would ask is whether you are willing to sacrafice contact and possible defense to get more pop at first base? Hank Blaylock's strike out percentage is around 21% compared to a walk percentage of 5%. To me, despite his slugging, he's not getting on base enough to offset his strike outs and his low average. Kotchman doesn't slug the ball like Hank Blaylock, but he does have a much better contact rate and has an OBP almost 60 points higher than Blaylock.

[frosgrim]

I guess the question I would ask is whether you are willing to sacrafice contact and possible defense to get more pop at first base? Hank Blaylock's strike out percentage is around 21% compared to a walk percentage of 5%. To me, despite his slugging, he's not getting on base enough to offset his strike outs and his low average. Kotchman doesn't slug the ball like Hank Blaylock, but he does have a much better contact rate and has an OBP almost 60 points higher than Blaylock.

For where he'd bat in the order, the lower OBP would be offset by the runs he drives in. In the post season the Braves have to have a legitimate home run threat. What the team has right now are several guys that will hit around 20. That just isn't going to do it in the post season when you need a guy or two that can change a game with one swing.

Look at career OBP and there really isn't a difference in KC and Hank (.339 vs. .333). Slugging is close (.749 vs. 803) but that is more due to Blalock missing big parts of seasons.

Blalock isn't perfect, but I can't see another first base solution.

[CBAreject]

I guess the question I would ask is whether you are willing to sacrafice contact and possible defense to get more pop at first base? Hank Blaylock's strike out percentage is around 21% compared to a walk percentage of 5%. To me, despite his slugging, he's not getting on base enough to offset his strike outs and his low average. Kotchman doesn't slug the ball like Hank Blaylock, but he does have a much better contact rate and has an OBP almost 60 points higher than Blaylock.

I agree. As much as I hate on Casey Krotchman, Blalock isn't a tremendous upgrade. If we're going to trade the 2nd best pitching prospect in our system (and in our system, that is saying a whole lot), I'd prefer it be in a deal to bring back someone who can hit in the middle of the order. Blalock's .296 OBP is just horrific. We need a 1Bman with an OPS in the upper .800's if we're going to move Medlin.

I disagree with the notion that "we need some pop". What we need is guys who create more runs than what we have right now. There are lots of ways to create runs, and hitting homeruns ("pop") is only one of those. Without doing a runs created calculation, the best comparison between 2 players is OPS. The OPS of our Kotchman is only about 60 points lower than that of Blalock, so I don't think Hank would significantly change our run production as a team. The occasional homer would be nice, but every now and then Kotchman hits a couple doubles and draws a walk to offset his pathetic power shortage.

*As an aside I have long theorized that the Braves of the late '90's failed so miserably in the playoffs because they relied to heavily on the homerun ball. Those free swinging sluggers could be owned by a changeup pitcher who could locate (see sterling hitchcock), and the team couldn't manufacture runs. I called them "mistake hitters", and while they mauled mediocre pitching, they would get completely shut down by a solid pitcher who could keep it off the middle of the plate. I feel like we have gotten away from that (it's just that our pitching has sucked the last 4 years), so I don't want to see a return to that philosophy by bringing in Blalock.

[frosgrim]

I agree. As much as I hate on Casey Krotchman, Blalock isn't a tremendous upgrade. If we're going to trade the 2nd best pitching prospect in our system (and in our system, that is saying a whole lot), I'd prefer it be in a deal to bring back someone who can hit in the middle of the order. Blalock's .296 OBP is just horrific. We need a 1Bman with an OPS in the upper .800's if we're going to move Medlin.

I disagree with the notion that "we need some pop". What we need is guys who create more runs than what we have right now. There are lots of ways to create runs, and hitting homeruns ("pop") is only one of those. Without doing a runs created calculation, the best comparison between 2 players is OPS. The OPS of our Kotchman is only about 60 points lower than that of Blalock, so I don't think Hank would significantly change our run production as a team. The occasional homer would be nice, but every now and then Kotchman hits a couple doubles and draws a walk to offset his pathetic power shortage.

*As an aside I have long theorized that the Braves of the late '90's failed so miserably in the playoffs because they relied to heavily on the homerun ball. Those free swinging sluggers could be owned by a changeup pitcher who could locate (see sterling hitchcock), and the team couldn't manufacture runs. I called them "mistake hitters", and while they mauled mediocre pitching, they would get completely shut down by a solid pitcher who could keep it off the middle of the plate. I feel like we have gotten away from that (it's just that our pitching has sucked the last 4 years), so I don't want to see a return to that philosophy by bringing in Blalock.

If you look at the carreer numbers, Blalock and Kotchman are very similar. Kotchman, however, is significanlty lacking in power

Blalock

AVG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OBP SLG OPS

.273 865 3337 480 910 189 15 146 516 297 663 .333 .470 .803

Kotchman

AVG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OBP SLG OPS

.271 478 1576 184 427 97 4 38 223 148 152 .339 .410 .749

The only area that Casey is better is in OBP (by .003) and BB/K ratio.

I understand the idea that you don't want to give up something in the system, that is very clear. However, the Braves do need more power. I understand your belief about the mid-90s teams that were heavy on power and not much on manufacturing (and I agree). I think you actually need both to be an effective team, ala the Red Sox of the past 5-7 years. The BoSox have terrific power, but they also will attack you on the bases. The Braves right now, don't have much in the way of a small ball team, nor do they have enough power to play the game the way Cox seems to like to manage.

So, my idea is to get some power at first. However, the other option is to get more speed at the top of the order and at the bottom. I would be fine with that, but remember the Cardinals of the Herzog era were always looking for that big bat in the middle of the line-up to complete their team. Moral of the story is that a balanced offense is what you should strive for vs one way or the other.

Again, Blalock is just an idea that seems to fit in the off season. However, there may be other options out there that I don't see. It would be great to hear other ideas.

[AHF]

SP is such a valued commodity that I would shoot higher or more long-term than Blalock if we are giving up quality SP or SP prospects.

[KB21]

Jason Heyward is now hitting .443 at AA Mississippi and hit his 3rd home run tonight.

Another player that is going to be making a climb up some prospect lists after this season is Adam Milligan at Rome. He homered in his 4th straight game tonight and has hit around .500 in his last ten games.

The Braves have a few young guys that need to be moved up. If Adam Milligan continues to hit like he has, I don't see any reason to not get him some at bats at Myrtle Beach this season. At Danville, Rian Spantjer-Furstenberg has killed the ball all season and should be the first baseman at Rome. I also think Mychal Jones should get moved up. As far as pitchers go, I would like to see Brett Oberholzer get tested at Rome. He's been filthy at Danville.

The GCL Braves have a guy named Layton Hiller who is entirely too old for that league and should be at Rome, IMO. He's slugging the hell out of the ball and hit his 5th home run tonight. He's another JUCO guy the Braves have in their system.

I'd also like to see JJ Hoover get tested at Myrtle Beach this year.