Sekou's Latest: A Closer Look

[Traceman]

http://blogs.ajc.com/hawks/2009/08/10/a-closer-look/?cxntfid=blogs_hawks

We have all been talking about JJ's extension as if he were eligible for a 5 yr extension beyond this season but that is not the case. As Larry Coon's FAQ says:

Rookie scale contracts may be extended for up to five seasons beyond the player's last option season, bringing the total contract length to six seasons. All other extensions are limited to five seasons, including the seasons remaining on the current contract. For example, a contract with two seasons remaining may be extended for up to three additional seasons.

That being the case, the max extension JJ can sign beyond this year is 4 seasons. That poses an interesting dilemna for JJ. Would he be better off waiting until he becomes unrestricted next July 1 and then signing a 5 (or even 6) year deal? By waiting, he runs the risk of getting injured or of having a subpar season but he could also miss out on tens of millions of dollars by signing an extension now. JJ is 28 now. If he signs a 4 year extension, he will be 33 at the beginning of his next contract. No way he gets anywhere near what he makes now at age 33 as a FA. But if he waits until July 1 of next year to sign the deal, the team would likely give him a 5 year deal (and possibly a 6 year deal depending on the competitition for his services) and that 5th year would likely be at a MUCH higher salary than he will get as a FA at age 33.

Bottom line, I don't know if I would sign an extension if I were JJ. I might roll the dice and bust my a$$ to have a big year this year and then cash in.

Edited August 10, 2009 by Traceman

[mrhonline]

I should be flogged for forgetting this...

[Diesel]

http://blogs.ajc.com/hawks/2009/08/10/a-closer-look/?cxntfid=blogs_hawks

We have all been talking about JJ's extension as if he were eligible for a 5 yr extension beyond this season but that is not the case. As Larry Coon's FAQ says:

That being the case, the max extension JJ can sign beyond this year is 4 seasons. That poses an interesting dilemna for JJ. Would he be better off waiting until he becomes unrestricted next July 1 and then signing a 5 (or even 6) year deal? By waiting, he runs the risk of getting injured or of having a subpar season but he could also miss out on tens of millions of dollars by signing an extension now. JJ is 28 now. If he signs a 4 year extension, he will be 33 at the beginning of his next contract. No way he gets anywhere near what he makes now at age 33 as a FA. But if he waits until July 1 of next year to sign the deal, the team would likely give him a 5 year deal (and possibly a 6 year deal depending on the competitition for his services) and that 5th year would likely be at a MUCH higher salary than he will get as a FA at age 33.

Bottom line, I don't know if I would sign an extension if I were JJ. I might roll the dice and bust my a$$ to have a big year this year and then cash in.

I think it still depends on how much money is left on the table.

4 years 64 Million dollars for example.

You have that versus...

a possible bad year or worse an injury.

He can always come back in the middle of year 2 and ask for an extension!

[DrReality]

I'm glad to hear they are looking at bigs and I don't know if I take this article as hopeful re Joe Smith or not. But we need someone more than Randmo.

[Traceman]

I think it still depends on how much money is left on the table.

4 years 64 Million dollars for example.

You have that versus...

a possible bad year or worse an injury.

He can always come back in the middle of year 2 and ask for an extension!

Per Larry Coon, renegotiated contracts can't be extended until 3 years after the renegotiation is signed.

[Traceman]

I should be flogged for forgetting this...

Me too! :slap1:

[Wurider05]

With this being said it looks like Sund and the organization are in the driver's seat as far as negotiations go. 4 years 55 million is what he deserves. If Sund was smart he would have Woody instructing JJ to take less shots this year and make the Hawks effort more of a team effort than the JJ show. If he waits we will have him right where we want him in terms of contract talks.

[Gray Mule]

Old country boy saying: "A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush."

Would you rather have X amount of $$$ right now, guaranteed for 4 years

OR

Would you prefer to wait another year, gamble that you have a great year,

that you don't get injured, aka Speedy, with no contract and no money.

Sure, you probably will have a bigger contract next year. Maybe. Maybe not.

But, if you sign right now, you KNOW how much your contract is and it's

GUARANTEED for it's entire length.

Guaranteed money of Maybe money. Which will it be???

:write a letter:

[Traceman]

With this being said it looks like Sund and the organization are in the driver's seat as far as negotiations go. 4 years 55 million is what he deserves. If Sund was smart he would have Woody instructing JJ to take less shots this year and make the Hawks effort more of a team effort than the JJ show. If he waits we will have him right where we want him in terms of contract talks.

I don't think the Hawks are in the driver's seat at all and I can't see any way JJ signs for 4 yrs/$55M. Worse case scenario, unless he has some kind of catastrophic injury, he will get a 5 year/$60M deal from SOMEBODY and best case, he could get a 5 yr/$90M deal from a team trying to recover from not getting LeBron, D Wade or Bosh. The Hawks would be VERY lucky to get him at 4 yrs/$65M (starting at $14M/yr) and I think 4 yrs/$69M is more realistic (starting at $15M/yr).

All in all, I'd be willing to go ahead and pay JJ 4 yrs/$69M in an extension (starting at $15M/season). The realitiy is that he is NOT likely to command a deal over $10M a season as a FA on the open market at age 33. Giving him a bigger extension now is likely a better deal for the Hawks. Even if they did resign him for another season at age 33 for $10M (I doubt it), they would STILL pay him less overall for the 5 year period ($79M) than the Blazers will pay Roy over the same period (over $80M).

[NJHAWK]

Well the fact that the cap is going down will be in the Hawks favor here. However there are going to be alot of teams with cap space next year and if they cant get their hands on Bron, Wade or Bosh they may throw a huge offer at Joe. Is there a certain date where the Hawks can offer him a 5 year deal before he hits the market or does he have to hit the market 1st before he can get 5 years after this season? Also do these extension rules apply to wade, bron and bosh as well?

[mrhonline]

A four-year deal would be tremendous for the Hawks. Looking at Ray Allen's salary for this season should be all you need to know about the fifth year of a deal.

It would have to be a near-max four-year extension, though. Four years, $65M is probably what it would take.

[Traceman]

A four-year deal would be tremendous for the Hawks. Looking at Ray Allen's salary for this season should be all you need to know about the fifth year of a deal.

It would have to be a near-max four-year extension, though. Four years, $65M is probably what it would take.

I agree that it would be tremendous for the Hawks and I agree on how much it will likely take. Can't see it getting done for less than $65M over 4 years. If Sund gets it done for less, the Hawks had better keep him (Sund) around for a long time.

[Traceman]

Well the fact that the cap is going down will be in the Hawks favor here. However there are going to be alot of teams with cap space next year and if they cant get their hands on Bron, Wade or Bosh they may throw a huge offer at Joe. Is there a certain date where the Hawks can offer him a 5 year deal before he hits the market or does he have to hit the market 1st before he can get 5 years after this season? Also do these extension rules apply to wade, bron and bosh as well?

He has to hit the market first before he would be eligible for a 5 year deal. That said, the Hawks COULD offer him another extension 3 years after he renegotiates this deal.

[xhawk]

Old country boy saying: "A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush."

Would you rather have X amount of $$$ right now, guaranteed for 4 years

I completely agree with this.

There are two unknowns: (1) where basket revenues (and therefore the cap) are falling to and (2) what the new CBA will be for the 2012 season. Depending on what happens with (1) and (2) or at least the perceptions of what is happening, owners could really pull back. But to be realistic, 20 million dollars per year is the max he going to get from another team and thats not promised. I'd say lets offer a flat 16 million dollar deal with incentives (Sund seems to like those). That would be very reasonable.

[gsuteke]

I thought if you have a player's bird rights you can offer a 6 year deal.

[Traceman]

I thought if you have a player's bird rights you can offer a 6 year deal.

You can...once he actually becomes a FA. JJ is not a FA yet, he's still under contract.

[DrReality]

In light of this . . . . . I'd be surprised if he did sign. I bet he is looking over what teams will have what cap space as well as who else will be a FA.

It would be interesting to see what other teams think his worth is?