Next H.O.F.er?

[benhillboy]

Nique cried when he didn't get in his first year. Maybe the voters tried to lash him for not carrying his team further more often when they felt he surely should've done so. Sort of a compliment and criticism at the same time. Oh well. The East was stacked with Isiah and them, Bird and them, Mike and them.

Who's next? Nobody currently here will stack up points by the thousands.

Joe's ascension to stardom came a little too late for a scorer. Traded by the team that drafted him, although his years in Phoenix are greatly underappreciated. He's gonna have to have a damn good 5 more years of All-Star play. I'm sure most would rate him above Joe Dumars when he hangs 'em up, but will he have two rings from his prime to show off? It's tough for scorers. Legendary scorers on mediocre teams aren't remembered like they should be, while great scorers on outstanding, at least conference championship-type teams maybe get more props than they should. How good will Joe's teams be going forward? Will he bolt to play alongside a mega-star to clear his path for multiple rings and the Hall, in which case he won't enter with a Hawks jersey anyway? His demeanor on the court can't be good for recognition, although most "experts" should realize that he was always near the top of the list as far as defending perimeter players. This year's postseason factors heavily on his legacy.

Josh? No All-Star selections yet, but still very young and will undoubtedly be the most prolific shot-blocker of All-Time. I'm sure when he hangs 'em up, many will marvel at his athleticism and size combo that is only rivaled by LeBron and ability to post 5 boards, assists, blocks, and steals. Still a little more to do in terms of his image of not being the headiest player and his mid-range game, while steadily improving, still makes most basketall people cringe. Anybody got a good career comparison for Josh?

Then there's Al. All-Star in third year, with seemingly many more, consecutive selections to come. Keeps draining that 15-18 footer when you think he's gonna miss. Relentless hustle, outstanding I.Q., possesses transition skills that he simply shouldn't have. Image is outstanding: extremely tough and fierce without being dirty. The chicks dig him too. I'm digging too far for my age, so the older heads maybe can help me out on this one: Baby Unseld? Poor man's Bernard King? McKale-ish?

Marvin anyone? ....No? .....Okay.

So who's jersey is next to hang in Phillips next to Pete and Moses and Nique for nobody to see? Is he here already, or do we have to wait to become a lottery team again and draft and develop a surefire stud? That seems to be a long way in the future, and that's cool with me.

I'm riding with Big Al. I'll sit back and enjoy his career. If ASG (hopefully we'll have a new, much better, singular owner) let's him walk, I'll....I don't know what I'll do.

Edited February 24, 2010 by benhillboy

[arhawkfan]

Joe is on path to score over 20000 points in his career. Does that get you in?

[dlpin]

Barring some sort of late surge in JJ's play where he suddenly becomes a viable mvp candidate, I doubt he will be in the hall of fame.

All star appearances and career stats count, but the overwhelming determinants of who ends up in the HOF are MVP awards (both regular season and finals), championships, and NBA 1st team selections.

Without any of these, he is a long shot.

And to back up what Im saying:

Mitch Richmond is not in the hall of fame (6 all star selections, 20497 career points)

Bernard King is not in the hall of fame (3 all star selections, 19655 career points)

Chris Mullin is not in it either (5 all star selections, 17911 career points)

Rolando Blackman is not in (4 all stars, 17623 points)

Artis Gilmore is not in(11 all stars - 5 in the ABA and 6 in the NBA, and 24491 combined points in both leagues)

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Barring some sort of late surge in JJ's play where he suddenly becomes a viable mvp candidate, I doubt he will be in the hall of fame.

All star appearances and career stats count, but the overwhelming determinants of who ends up in the HOF are MVP awards (both regular season and finals), championships, and NBA 1st team selections.

Without any of these, he is a long shot.

And to back up what Im saying:

Mitch Richmond is not in the hall of fame (6 all star selections, 20497 career points)

Bernard King is not in the hall of fame (3 all star selections, 19655 career points)

Chris Mullin is not in it either (5 all star selections, 17911 career points)

Rolando Blackman is not in (4 all stars, 17623 points)

Artis Gilmore is not in(11 all stars - 5 in the ABA and 6 in the NBA, and 24491 combined points in both leagues)

Great post.

JJ is the 21st century version of Mitch Richmond ( although Mitch was a little better than JJ ). And like you said, it's MVP awards and championships that usually determine a guy's Hall of Fame status. JJ would need 4 - 5 great playoff series, playing at a very high level . . and maybe at least 2 championships . . to get into the Hall.

Until Paul Pierce won his championship, even he may have been left out of the Hall of Fame. I think he gets in now though.

databasebasketball.com has something that they call the Hall of Fame monitor. It's a system in which they try to come up with a formula of achievements that is an indicator of who may get into the Hall of Fame . . or who is close to getting in.

*******************************

The Formula ( from their website )

75 points for each NBA MVP award

Being an NBA MVP has been the best way to get into the hall. Every NBA MVP who is eligible for the Hall of Fame is in the Hall of Fame. When a player wins an MVP award, its almost as good as getting enshrined.

15 points for each All NBA First Team selection

Being elected NBA First Team carries some weight with the hall. 80% of players who were All NBA First Team two or more times and are eligible for the hall of fame, are in the hall of fame. The percentage jumps to 96% for players with three or more NBA First Team selections. Being selected to an All NBA First team should be slightly easier for a forward or guard than a center because two forwards and guards are selected as opposed to one center.

1 point for each point of NBA career Approximate Value and .33 points for each point of ABA career Approximate Value

Approximate Value is a statistical calculation that provides an idea of how much a player contributed to his team over the course of a season. The career AV will provide an idea of how much a player contributed to his teams over the course of his entire career. This component gives players credit for long, solid careers. ABA AV is not given as much credit as NBA AV. The AV is also slightly biased towards centers and forwards.

2.5 points for each point of NBA career Efficiency

Efficiency is a measure of a players impact per game. Since it is a per game average, it helps players who had short, but spectacular careers. It is also the only component that can decrease over time. So a player who has a career EFF of 20.1 after five seasons, may fall off and only have a career EFF of 17.3 after 10 seasons. This means that the HOF Monitor score can actually fall for some players over time. EFF is slightly biased towards centers and forwards.

3.5 points for each NBA Championship

Winning an NBA Championship is a good thing in the eyes of the Hall of Fame voters. It also gives that player some publicity and possibly enhances the perception that he is a great player. Players who play on multiple championship teams have a slightly increased chance of making the Hall of Fame.

(-20) points for centers and (-15) points for forwards

The slight bias towards centers and forwards that AV and EFF have needs to be acounted for with a penalty. Centers are penalized 20 points and forwards are penalized 15 points. Each player in our system has been assigned one single position. This is not ideal, but in most cases works out fine. Players who play multiple positions were given the position that they played most over the course of their career.

***************************

According to them . . . the number a player needs to accumulate in his career is 135, in order to have a good shot to get into the Hall of Fame. 85% of the players who get to that 135 number, get into the Hall. 99% of the players with a number of 160, are in the Hall.

Current players and their number, through the 08 - 09 season:

( all of these guys are locks )

Duncan - 441

Shaq - 366

Kobe - 331

Nash - 309

Garnett - 294

Dirk - 262

Iverson - 249

Lebron - 245

Kidd - 216

T-Mac - 136 ( he's definitely borderline. . . if his career ended this year, I don't know if he gets in )

Pierce - 128 ( I say he's in . . he's definitely in over T-Mac )

Wade - 125 ( he's in . . definitely )

Ray Allen - 123 ( he has his ring . . and is the most prolific 3 point shooter of all time . . so he's in )

Vince Carter - 121 ( hmmmm . . . close . . . if he wins a title this year, definitely )

Grant Hill - 119 ( I say no . . too bad he got hurt though, because he was a lock. )

Howard - 119 ( not yet. . but he'll be a dominant force for 7 - 10 years . . so he probably will )

Chris Paul - 117 ( if he stays healthy . . . yes )

Shawn Marion - 114 ( no )

Elton Brand - 111 ( no chance now )

Andre Miller - 108 ( no )

Stoudamire - 104 ( if he would've gone to Cleveland, probably . . right now? . . no )

Billups - 102 ( thought his number would be a little higher. If Denver wins it all, this helps his case to get in )

Mike Bibby - 100 ( surprised? But no . . definitely not now with him regressing )

Sheed - 99 ( nope )

Pau Gasol - 99 ( if he keeps playing with Kobe and they win another title or two . . he may have a shot )

Baron Davis - 98 ( no chance )

Parker - 97 ( He has 3 rings, but probably needed to win a Finals MVP at least once )

Jamison - 97 ( no )

Jason Terry - 95 ( no )

Joe Johnson - 87

In other words, he has a long way to go.

[AHF]

I think Dikembe Mutombo will be in the HOF eventually given his role as an international ambassador. Not a lock, but he is a high probability candidate, IMO.

If you are a woman, college coach or international player, getting into the HOF is much easier than for NBA players. It is wrong, but it is reality. Dikembe will have that international aspect working in his favor. As far as the others mentioned:

( all of these guys are locks ) - Agreed

Duncan - 441

Shaq - 366

Kobe - 331

Nash - 309

Garnett - 294

Dirk - 262

Iverson - 249

Lebron - 245

Kidd - 216

T-Mac - 136 ( he's definitely borderline. . . if his career ended this year, I don't know if he gets in ) - No chance in hell he gets in

Pierce - 128 ( I say he's in . . he's definitely in over T-Mac ) Borderline but being from Boston rather than Sacramento is probably enough

Wade - 125 ( he's in . . definitely ) Unless he falls off a cliff career-wise, I agree

Ray Allen - 123 ( he has his ring . . and is the most prolific 3 point shooter of all time . . so he's in ) Borderline. If Reggie Miller has trouble getting in, Ray shouldn't.

Vince Carter - 121 ( hmmmm . . . close . . . if he wins a title this year, definitely ) Low probability

Grant Hill - 119 ( I say no . . too bad he got hurt though, because he was a lock. ) No chance

Howard - 119 ( not yet. . but he'll be a dominant force for 7 - 10 years . . so he probably will ) On track but early

Chris Paul - 117 ( if he stays healthy . . . yes ) On track but early

Shawn Marion - 114 ( no ) No chance in hell he gets in

Elton Brand - 111 ( no chance now ) No chance in hell he gets in

Andre Miller - 108 ( no ) No chance in hell he gets in

Stoudamire - 104 ( if he would've gone to Cleveland, probably . . right now? . . no ) No chance in hell he gets in

Billups - 102 ( thought his number would be a little higher. If Denver wins it all, this helps his case to get in ) Low probability but in the conversation

Mike Bibby - 100 ( surprised? But no . . definitely not now with him regressing ) No chance in hell he gets in

Sheed - 99 ( nope ) No chance in hell he gets in

Pau Gasol - 99 ( if he keeps playing with Kobe and they win another title or two . . he may have a shot ) No chance in hell he gets in

Baron Davis - 98 ( no chance ) No chance in hell he gets in

Parker - 97 ( He has 3 rings, but probably needed to win a Finals MVP at least once ) Unlikely

Jamison - 97 ( no ) No chance in hell he gets in

Jason Terry - 95 ( no ) No chance in hell he gets in

Joe Johnson - 87 Low probability but still has time to build the resume. If he isn't the #1 player on a deep playoff team, then the answer will be "no."

Edited February 24, 2010 by AHF

[spotatl]

Ironically I think that of all current Hawks Woodson has the best chance of making the HOF. I mean think about it- he already has this record for most consecutive years improving a team. If he left the Hawks I do think its likely that the team took a step back next season. (just because to me the chances of the Hawks finishing out of the top 4 are higher than finishing in the top 2 regarless of the coach) There are plenty of mediocre coaches that win championships. He is a guy I could see star players absolutely loving so he could gravitate to situations where he would be successful. I'm pretty sure I'd take Woodson's chances of making the HOF over any other current Hawk player.

Billups is the interesting guy to me. I could see him having a lof of years left as an "off ball" PG. I mean seriously- how sick would he look playing PG for the next 5 years playing next to a Kobe or LEbron and just waiting outside and destroying teams that double. I'll be suprised if Billups doesn't end up in the hall of fame when his career is done.

Edited February 24, 2010 by spotatl

[dlpin]

Ironically I think that of all current Hawks Woodson has the best chance of making the HOF. I mean think about it- he already has this record for most consecutive years improving a team. If he left the Hawks I do think its likely that the team took a step back next season. (just because to me the chances of the Hawks finishing out of the top 4 are higher than finishing in the top 2 regarless of the coach) There are plenty of mediocre coaches that win championships. He is a guy I could see star players absolutely loving so he could gravitate to situations where he would be successful. I'm pretty sure I'd take Woodson's chances of making the HOF over any other current Hawk player.

Billups is the interesting guy to me. I could see him having a lof of years left as an "off ball" PG. I mean seriously- how sick would he look playing PG for the next 5 years playing next to a Kobe or LEbron and just waiting outside and destroying teams that double. I'll be suprised if Billups doesn't end up in the hall of fame when his career is done.

I don't think Woodson has a realistic shot, barring some sort of career surge, either.

The only NBA coaches there without an NBA championship are Lenny WIlkens and Jerry Sloan, and both have way over 1000 wins. It is a lot easier to make it as a college coach than an NBA coach. Woodson has 188 career wins and will be turning 52 soon. Even if he coaches to be 70 years old, he'd need to average some 45 wins a year for the next 18 years to get to a 1000 wins. And even that is not a guarantee: Don Nelson has been eligible for the HOF for almost 10 years as a coach, and even though he has over 1300 wins he is not there. Bill Fitch has a championship, 944 wins, and is not there either.

[spotatl]

dlpin- I agree that if Woodson doesn't win a championship he wouldn't get in. But he still has a long time to win one. Of course Woodson needs a career surge- but coaches can get career surges just by being given better players. I think thats more likely than one of the current Hawks players suddely getting a career surge and morphing into a HOF quality player.

I'm not saying I think its likely at all that Woodson makes the HOF. I have repeatedly said I don't think he is a great coach. But I'll right now take Woodson's chances over any other Hawk player you would like to pick.

Edited February 24, 2010 by spotatl

[dlpin]

Oh, and why shouldn't Ray Allen be in if Reggie Miller has a tough time getting in?

First, I don't think Reggie Miller will have a tough time getting in. Might not be a first ballot guy (hes eligible for the first time next year), but should be in.

Second, Ray Allen has had a better career by every measure.

Championships:

Ray Allen: 1 Reggie Miller: 0

2nd Team All NBA selections:

Ray Allen 1 Reggie MIller: 0

All Star Appearances:

Ray Allen: 9 Reggie Miller:5

Career PPG:

Ray Allen: 20.6 Reggie Miller: 18.2

And the two sites that have formulas to determine how likely a player is to make to the hall of fame:

Basketball-reference

Ray Allen Probability: 89.5%

Reggie Miller Probability: 3.7%

databasebasketball

Ray Allen: 123 (but this one is cumulative, as opposed to probabilistic, so Ray Allen can improve)

Reggie MIller: 130

That is, all it takes for Ray Allen to pass reggie miller in databasebasketball HOF watch is one more season with his current Approximate Value. Approximate value is added year by year, as opposed to player efficiency, that is a career average per game.

Edited February 24, 2010 by dlpin

[benhillboy]

That databasketball.com formula is interesting. In their primes, I'll take Ray over Reggie 8 days a week. Vince and Grant should get in on weaker ballot years : at their peaks both were phenomenal. Damn LeBron, seems like half the age of those other geezers who are basically having their spots prepared as we speak, although I can't bear to see such poor defenders as Nash and A.I. get in regardless of their offensive genius. And Dirk is much better now than he was when he won the MVP, but now won't be mentioned in the conversation. Sheed and Baron had the talent to be candidates, but lacked almost everything else to become Hall-worthy. T-Mac's track record of as may playoff series wins as me and overall sentiment that he's soft and way overpaid may leave him plenty short, despite multiple scoring championships. The Rockets getting to the second round without him last year pretty much killed him.

Edited February 24, 2010 by benhillboy

[AHF]

I like Reggie better in his prime than Ray but I can totally see where reasonable minds differ on this. I don't think any team with Ray as its best player makes the NBA finals, for example. I also give Ray Allen significantly more credit for the Celtics championship than I give Steve Kerr with the Bulls but it is a similar situation. It is nice that they won a championship as no-D, perimeter gunners that couldn't hold the jockstrap of their team's best players but they were clearly complimentary pieces that could have been replaced by a dozen other guys without changing the bottom-line result.

[dlpin]

I like Reggie better in his prime than Ray but I can totally see where reasonable minds differ on this. I don't think any team with Ray as its best player makes the NBA finals, for example. I also give Ray Allen significantly more credit for the Celtics championship than I give Steve Kerr with the Bulls but it is a similar situation. It is nice that they won a championship as no-D, perimeter gunners that couldn't hold the jockstrap of their team's best players but they were clearly complimentary pieces that could have been replaced by a dozen other guys without changing the bottom-line result.

Reggie MIller reached the finals is a significantly weaker east, and Ray Allen was within a poorly officiated game against the 76rs of doing it too. the 2005 sonics were better than both teams. And it's not clear to me Reggie Miller was even the best player in that Pacers team.