Brooklyn and Atlanta are engaged in talks on a possible Joe Johnson trade

[HawkItus]

According to the advanced metrics, Louis Williams accounted for 2.2 DWS last year and held opposing point guards to a 12.1 PER and opposing shooting guards to a 11.9 PER.Joe Johnson accounted for 2.1 DWS last year and held opposing shooting guards to a 10.0 PER and opposing small forwards to a 13 PER. Lou's lack of size does not effect his defensive ability.

All your metrics.....blah. Joe does more for this team than the numbers show. And I take the coaches and scouts opinions over yours.

[Admin]

Teague/FarmarMorrow/Jenkins (flip if you wish they are redundant and neither is a starter)Marvin/Stevenson (smallish for SF, all types of troubles in the past)Josh/Scott/WilliamsAl/Zaza/PetroOnly good thing about that trade is you have 12 players and only need one more that is talent defunct and you are not getting any strong 1st rd picks.The biggest question I was asking is who hear would go out and sign Deshawn Stevenson to a long term contract? If you would not why do you accept him in this deal? They are just adding more and more trash.

Agreed, I'm not crazy about adding Stevenson unless it's a 1 year deal... although just because it's a SnT doesn't mean it has to be for longer than a year.

[IheartVolt]

Teague/FarmarMorrow/Jenkins (flip if you wish they are redundant and neither is a starter)Marvin/Stevenson (smallish for SF, all types of troubles in the past)Josh/Scott/WilliamsAl/Zaza/PetroOnly good thing about that trade is you have 12 players and only need one more that is talent defunct and you are not getting any strong 1st rd picks.The biggest question I was asking is who hear would go out and sign Deshawn Stevenson to a long term contract? If you would not why do you accept him in this deal? They are just adding more and more trash.

WTF?? What do you expect to get for an overpaid , slowing shooting guard on a bad contract with no leadership qualities??I mean let me know really..what do want Curry? Maybe Lopez? Not gonna happen and you should be dancing they will take his contract on its own merits

[KB21]

The only bad player/contract in that mix is Johan Petro's.

And as bad as Petro is, he'd still be an improvement over Jason Collins. They both hurt their team more than they helped when they were on the court as shown by WP48. Honestly, I'd waive Petro once he came over. I'd rather keep Keith Benson on the roster and send him to the DL than to keep a useless player like Petro. The key here is getting out from under Joe's contract though. That has to happen, or the long term future of this team is doomed.

[Admin]

The Stevenson contract would be about 2 years at 2.5 mil per.You have 12 players, short of the LT by 12 million. Tradeable commodities in that list.12 million in wiggle roomMarvin 7.5 mil17 million in expiring contractsMorrow (expiring)Farmar (expiring)Zaza (expiring)Petro (expiring)and2 - 1st round picks in 2013.Think like a GM, not a fan.

There's a difference between thinking like a fan and thinking like a fan who doesn't want the team as a late lottery pick next year, which is what we'd be without getting even a remotely qualified starter. No Humphries, Lopez or Brooks means no go for me. If they want to save those players for Dwight then they need to give us multiple (3) 1st round picks.

[IheartVolt]

There's a difference between thinking like a fan and thinking like a fan who doesn't want the team as a late lottery pick next year, which is what we'd be without getting even a remotely qualified starter. No Humphries, Lopez or Brooks means no go for me. If they want to save those players for Dwight then they need to give us multiple (3) 1st round picks.

If they trade Joe you can kiss Josh goodbye

[MrMeltdown]

The Stevenson contract would be about 2 years at 2.5 mil per.

You have 12 players, short of the LT by 12 million. Tradeable commodities in that list.

12 million in wiggle room

Marvin 7.5 mil

17 million in expiring contracts

Morrow (expiring)

Farmar (expiring)

Zaza (expiring)

Petro (expiring)

and

2 - 1st round picks in 2013.

Think like a GM, not a fan.

I am and I don't see how this benefits us. Take there garbage back and still have no immediate flexibility. You do know we would only have the exceptions to play or the idea of trading our young good players for scraps as options of truly getting better.

[GameTime]

There's a difference between thinking like a fan and thinking like a fan who doesn't want the team as a late lottery pick next year, which is what we'd be without getting even a remotely qualified starter. No Humphries, Lopez or Brooks means no go for me. If they want to save those players for Dwight then they need to give us multiple (3) 1st round picks.

Honestly if Ferry pulls this off I don't think he is done. I don't want Humphries or Lopez's contract and Brooks is still not out of the question. This gives room for Ferry to work his magic.

[GameTime]

If they trade Joe you can kiss Josh goodbye

Okay, this is what doesn't make sense. If you trade Joe, why trade Josh too? Unless you are doing a complete fire sale.

[ag82]

my 2 questions now are:1) Are the nets going to have enough after this to trade and re-sign Dwight? He just announced that he will only sign with one team (obviously brooklyn) if traded. Can they afford Joe, Dwight, D-Will and a bunch of guys to stand around?2) What is our plan going to be? Keep Josh? Trade Josh? My biggest fear is us trying to build around Josh here. Atleast if we get some young talent and picks and start to rebuild that way, we really need to get into the lottery. What is the general consensus on Josh if this trade goes through?

[ag82]

Okay, this is what doesn't make sense. If you trade Joe, why trade Josh too? Unless you are doing a complete fire sale.

I think it makes more sense to trade him and get into the lottery and hope we can make some good picks. A team built around Josh is not going to be a championship level team.

[IheartVolt]

Okay, this is what doesn't make sense. If you trade Joe, why trade Josh too? Unless you are doing a complete fire sale.

That is my bet there..

[GameTime]

I think it makes more sense to trade him and get into the lottery and hope we can make some good picks. A team built around Josh is not going to be a championship level team.

You mean first offensive option right?Neither will a team built around Joe or Horford if that's the case. If the plan is to be lottery bound then trading all our players for picks makes the most sense. If that's our plan.

[KB21]

The Stevenson contract would be about 2 years at 2.5 mil per.

You have 12 players, short of the LT by 12 million. Tradeable commodities in that list.

12 million in wiggle room

Marvin 7.5 mil

17 million in expiring contracts

Morrow (expiring)

Farmar (expiring)

Zaza (expiring)

Petro (expiring)

and

2 - 1st round picks in 2013.

Think like a GM, not a fan.

It is a great deal to get out from under that contract. We need to be thanking New Jersey for taking Joe off our hands.

Oh, and I always love the argument against the metrics that state a player's impact cannot be measured in statistics. EVERYTHING can be measured in stats.

When I prescribe a medication, I don't do it based on what I feel it will do. I do it based on what the evidence shows, and guess what. The evidence is represented as statistics from studies done on the medications.

So, when I look at players, I want to see what they do to impact wins, and that impact can be measured.

http://www.sfandllaw.com/CM/Articles/Articles10.asp

This is part of Dean Oliver's work.

Based on statistical analyses, the four most important keys for team success in basketball and their relative weights, in parentheses, are:

[*]Shoot a high field goal percentage (10).

[*]Do not commit turnovers (5-6).

[*]Get offensive rebounds (4-5).

[*]Get to the foul line frequently (2-3).

So, let's look at these categories and see which ones Joe makes a big impact in. Now, this is from an offensive perspective as well. Does he shoot a high percentage from the floor? For the most part, no. He did shoot 45% from the field last year, but I think TS% is a better indicator of shooting ability. His career TS% is around 52%, which is low and I will explain why later. I'll give him credit for shooting a high percentage just to save the argument though.

The data shows that to win games, you need to be able to do at least three of these categories well. So, let's look at the others. Does Joe turn over the ball? Joe typically protects the basketball well. He can get a little turnover happy at times when he tries to do too much one on one stuff, but overall, he keeps turnovers to around 2 per 36 minutes. His problem is defensively, he doesn't force any turnovers with blocks or steals. This is why blocks and steals are important to measure, and it is also why Josh Smith is such an impactful defender.

Does he get offensive rebounds? Eh, no. He doesn't even get many defensive rebounds, so from a defensive perspective, he doesn't keep the other team from getting offensive rebounds.

Does he get to the foul line frequently? No. This is the biggest thing that stands out, and it adversely effects his TS%. Joe likes to go one on one, but he too often settles for a pull up jumper instead of taking the ball strong to the basket.

To me, it is very clear that Joe doesn't impact in enough statistical categories to be considered a star player capable of winning games for his team. As the numbers show, he will get you about 5-6 wins a year based on the numbers, and no. Drawing double teams doesn't contribute to winning, particularly if you aren't finding your teammates out of those double teams.

[KB21]

Oh, and this team won what was the equivalent of 50 games in an 82 game season this past year. This was without Al Horford. With a healthy Horford, they aren't going to suddenly become a 35 win team just because they have traded Joe Johnson for a bunch of expiring contracts.Johnson's production can be easily replaced.

[MrMeltdown]

You mean first offensive option right?Neither will a team built around Joe or Horford if that's the case. If the plan is to be lottery bound then trading all our players for picks makes the most sense. If that's our plan.

Well, why wait to hire Ferry until last week then? This was hyped as the greatest draft in the last 10-15 years why did we wait so long to do this instead of trading all valuable pieces for picks before Thursday. I know the answer will be something about the ASG and there incompetence but I actually don't think a firesale is coming. If a firesale was coming why did we pass on all that talent in this draft?

[ag82]

Oh, and this team won what was the equivalent of 50 games in an 82 game season this past year. This was without Al Horford. With a healthy Horford, they aren't going to suddenly become a 35 win team just because they have traded Joe Johnson for a bunch of expiring contracts.Johnson's production can be easily replaced.

The rest of the East continues to get better and this year they are all going to have a training camp, a less intense schedule, and actual practices together. We had a natural advantage last season and an easy schedule.And also, who cares about the regular season? We had a good regular season and we got taken out in the playoffs earlier than we did in the last 4 years... so.. ? Edited July 2, 2012 by ag82

[KB21]

You mean first offensive option right?Neither will a team built around Joe or Horford if that's the case. If the plan is to be lottery bound then trading all our players for picks makes the most sense. If that's our plan.

Building around a so called first option is overrated. I don't understand why everyone thinks you need this one guy that can go one on one and get his own shot. One of the biggest myths that are out there is this idea that a player can create shots. What the hell does that mean anyway? What I want to know is whether the player can MAKE shots. The reason you can build a team around Al Horford and Josh Smith is that both players have a major impact in the categories I mentioned earlier, both offensively and defensively. Horford is going to shoot a high percentage and keep his man from shooting a high percentage. He's going to get offensive rebounds and rebound defensively to keep the other team from getting offensive rebounds and extra shots. He will get to the free throw line. He won't turn the ball over at a high rate.Josh won't shoot a high percentage unless he abandons his perimeter shooting, but he keeps his man from shooting a high percentage. Josh is turnover prone, but he forces turnovers. Josh is a solid to above average rebounder both offensively and defensively. He also does a good job of getting to the free throw line.

[KB21]

The rest of the East continues to get better and this year they are all going to have a training camp, a less intense schedule, and actual practices together. We had a natural advantage last season and an easy schedule.And also, who cares about the regular season? We had a good regular season and we got taken out in the playoffs earlier than we did in the last 4 years... so.. ?

And how many playoff games did Al Horford play in? How much of a difference did Joe make in the playoffs?

[MrMeltdown]

Well, I am going to sleep and if I wake I suspect that this discussion will have even less steam. Ferry is just using this as a building block for future moves. He is letting the world know that Joe is available but he will not be traded for scraps just so some team can build a near dynasty.