UH OH! League projecting 2013-14 salary cap at only $58.5 million!

[NBASupes]

Marketing opportunities can be great in Atlanta. This is a top 10 market and had guys like Michael Vick who was the face of the NFL for about three years, Nique, Deion, and even Maddox and Glavine had marketing chances. The bottom-line is you can get marketing chances anywhere but in Atlanta, you can really get marketing chances for Basketball. Atlanta is a fantastic market for superstars, not so much for the run the of mill or the less marketable guys.

If your logic is Atlanta is not a power so they need the max and luck then Atlanta will not sign either player. Also you might as well consider Utah to be equal to Atlanta by your logic. Atlanta has proven with superstars in other sports like Vick and Nique in Basketball that this is a superstar town like LA but more urban.

con't

Outside of NY and LA, no market is better for Black superstar Basketball athletes than Atlanta. None.

Atlanta fans have a large percent of Blacks who buy up Basketball gear.

Atlanta celebs are also Black. So while LA has the Clooney's and Jaden Smith's of the world, Atlanta has the urban celebs which matter more to the players than Hollywood's type.

It might not matter to you but it matters to NBA players since they are African American most likely.

Atlanta is the best city in the NBA to most Black players. Since most are Black, that matters.

Edited June 3, 2013 by Leadership

[DatWerkk]

Why were you expecting a major jump like that? The growth of the salary cap has been pretty stagnant for the past 3 years, and we normally only see a big jump when the league signs a new TV deal.

If by "pretty stagnant" you mean "exactly the same" then you're right. $58.044 million for the 2010-2011, 2011-12, and 2012-13 seasons. The last two seasons the number was based off the 2010-11 number. It has nothing to do with stagnating. Going forward, however, there's a mathematical formula they employ to get the upcoming season's salary cap number. That formula is largely based on Basketball Related Income, and the projections for BRI have been as high as $5 billion, which would lead to a salary cap number well in excess of $60 million. Blame David Stern and the league office for putting out faulty projections I guess.

[Guest]

If by "pretty stagnant" you mean "exactly the same" then you're right. $58.044 million for the 2010-2011, 2011-12, and 2012-13 seasons. The last two seasons the number was based off the 2010-11 number. It has nothing to do with stagnating. Going forward, however, there's a mathematical formula they employ to get the upcoming season's salary cap number. That formula is largely based on Basketball Related Income, and the projections for BRI have been as high as $5 billion, which would lead to a salary cap number well in excess of $60 million. Blame David Stern and the league office for putting out faulty projections I guess.

I have been thinking about this and I feel a little foolish for having forgotten about the CBA changing how to calculate the Salary Cap.

Even with constant BRI growth from the past, we should have been expecting the low end estimates because now the Salary Cap is based off of ~45% BRI where in the past we were looking at ~51% BRI. If you keep BRI growing the same and the Salary Cap is based off of a constant percentage of BRI then you are right to expect a high end estimate. But we are now changing our Salary Cap to be computed with a lower percentage of BRI than before and this is the first year we actually use the new percentages. So of course we should be expecting the low end just based on the change in percentages of BRI that determine the Salary Cap.

[MaceCase]

If by "pretty stagnant" you mean "exactly the same" then you're right. $58.044 million for the 2010-2011, 2011-12, and 2012-13 seasons. The last two seasons the number was based off the 2010-11 number. It has nothing to do with stagnating. Going forward, however, there's a mathematical formula they employ to get the upcoming season's salary cap number. That formula is largely based on Basketball Related Income, and the projections for BRI have been as high as $5 billion, which would lead to a salary cap number well in excess of $60 million. Blame David Stern and the league office for putting out faulty projections I guess.

Exactly, in November we had this

NBA Commissioner David Stern estimates revenue will be a record $5 billion in the current season, an increase of about 20 percent from the league's last full season in 2010-11.

http://www.nba.com/2012/news/11/13/stern-nba-revenue.ap/index.html

You even have this from just the past April

Average regular-season attendance for the NBA this year was 17,348 per game, up 0.4 percent from last year. The Chicago Bulls led the league with an average of 21,877; the Sacramento Kings ranked last, at 13,750. Among other metrics, total team sponsorship revenue climbed by 4 percent compared with the full 2010-11 season and by 20 percent compared with last year’s 66-game schedule.

http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2013/04/29/Leagues-and-Governing-Bodies/NBA-revenue.aspx

They say TV viewership is down so apparently that seems to be impacting far greater than everything else if the cap projection is true.

[Guest]

They say TV viewership is down so apparently that seems to be impacting far greater than everything else if the cap projection is true.

I haven't seen anything about the national TV deal, but I do not think viewership affects current revenue. Or if it does, I doubt it affects it that much. The TV deals usually are negotiated for multiple years, with the networks giving the NBA guaranteed money in exchange for the right to broadcast the game and earn revenue from advertisements. So it is not the NBA that earns money off of the TV advertisements, they are earning money from the network.

I think gate revenues, merchandising, and other frivolous activities are the only random component to the revenue streams of the NBA. I saw a figure somewhere that the NBA earned around $4.5 billion dollars in the regular season and are expecting $500 million dollars for the post season. On a per game basis, the post season is more lucrative. It is also another random component because of the number of games.

The low end projection is more likely to be because we are forgetting about the change in BRI% for the Salary Cap. I bet if we broke out the numbers to look at actual BRI we would see constant growth.

[MaceCase]

Oh I definitely agree that it is an ACCounting error on the percentages, just simply stating how exactly people came about with such high projections given that the commisioner has been talking about record revenue all year.

[NBASupes]

Exactly, in November we had this

http://www.nba.com/2012/news/11/13/stern-nba-revenue.ap/index.html

You even have this from just the past April

http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2013/04/29/Leagues-and-Governing-Bodies/NBA-revenue.aspx

They say TV viewership is down so apparently that seems to be impacting far greater than everything else if the cap projection is true.

For the sake of money for us, I hope Miami wins tonight. They will give us great ratings v. whoever.

[Guest]

Oh I definitely agree that it is an ACCounting error on the percentages, just simply stating how exactly people came about with such high projections given that the commisioner has been talking about record revenue all year.

But the real question is if you saw what conference has the most teams in the NCAA Super Regionals so far. Or Lacrosse, Men's Tennis, Women's Soccer. You know, the important stuff.