UH OH! League projecting 2013-14 salary cap at only $58.5 million!

[DatWerkk]

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/227968/NBA-Projects-Salary-Cap-Of-$585M-For-13-14 Like many others I was expecting the new salary cap to be in the mid- to upper-60s. Instead we get an increase of less than $1 million over the previous two seasons. This isn't a final number but capologists are already debating what this means for teams looking to sign max players. I can tell you this though: the number of teams financially capable of signing both CP3 and Dwight Howard just fell dramatically. In fact, that number might have fallen to only one: Atlanta. What do y'all think??

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

It was always just us... No one else can afford both but the Hawks. It does suck that it won't even break $60 mil.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[thecampster]

It was always just us... No one else can afford both but the Hawks. It does suck that it won't even break $60 mil.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The exact opposite.

teams with room will like a cap of under 60 million as it will do 2 things.

1. It will mean a lower luxury tax meaning a fire sale for teams more than 4 million into the LT.

2. It means less competition for top talent which means lower salaries for the top 10 free agents not named Dwight or Chris.

If the Hawks are smart and are looking at more players over 1 superstar this could mean a stacked roster.

[DrReality]

So It will prevent teams from doing what Miami did? Would love hawks having a "stacked roster" instead of superstars

[frosgrim]

That is an interesting development. I agree this actually really helps the Hawks in getting guys on good contracts. Things just keep lining up for this team. Now we'll see if our management team can take advantage.

[nitte]

That is not surprising; I never understood the belief in here that salary cap would jump this year. We had a lock-out last year for a reason...

[NBASupes]

This just means we won't be able to resign Korver at all.

As for CP3 and Dwight, we could still sign them. This completely eliminates Dallas because Dirk's contract is much to great and they wouldn't make the min for players. CP3 and Dwight will have to take 15-15.5 a piece if they want to sign which is 1 mil more than James and Bosh did.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/227968/NBA-Projects-Salary-Cap-Of-$585M-For-13-14 Like many others I was expecting the new salary cap to be in the mid- to upper-60s. Instead we get an increase of less than $1 million over the previous two seasons. This isn't a final number but capologists are already debating what this means for teams looking to sign max players. I can tell you this though: the number of teams financially capable of signing both CP3 and Dwight Howard just fell dramatically. In fact, that number might have fallen to only one: Atlanta. What do y'all think??

Why were you expecting a major jump like that? The growth of the salary cap has been pretty stagnant for the past 3 years, and we normally only see a big jump when the league signs a new TV deal.

I think most of us were assuming that the cap would be around 60 million. So the teams that currently have cap space, can still afford at least one of Dwight or Chris. All of the teams talked about are still in the mix.

And until we get some sort of legit sign that both Dwight and Chris want to play with each other, it doesn't matter if we have the money to afford both.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

This just means we won't be able to resign Korver at all.

As for CP3 and Dwight, we could still sign them. This completely eliminates Dallas because Dirk's contract is much to great and they wouldn't make the min for players. CP3 and Dwight will have to take 15-15.5 a piece if they want to sign which is 1 mil more than James and Bosh did.

The wild card for Dallas, is Shawn Marion. He has an early termination option going into this summer. If he opts out, that will open up a ton of cap space for Dallas, after they basically renounce and refuse to pick up the option on other players. And if Dwight flat out tells the Lakers that he wants to play in Dallas, you'll have a scenario in which they Lakers will have no choice but to let him walk, or take on the rest of Dallas' players.

A Shawn Marion, Vince Carter, Darren Collison, and Rodrigue Beaubois trade for Dwight . . .

. . . is one the Lakers just may do out of desperation, because it adds temporary talent to the team, and most important, a bunch of expiring contracts to the Lakers. With Kobe out until at least late December - early January, I could definitely see the Lakers taking this deal to stay somewhat relevant, then be in position to re-boot everything in the summer of 2014.

Meanwhile, Dallas would have Dwight, and could offer Paul a contract that takes up the rest of their cap room. Cuban will tell both Howard and Paul to stay patient in 2013, seeing that they would only be able to add vet and rookie minimum type guys, and maybe a good MLE level player. Then in 2014, they can add talent, and see Dirk take a significant pay cut to keep him around.

Cuban is savvy. No way is he out of the Dwight and Paul mix.

[MaceCase]

Somehow I doubt Cuban is "savvy" enough to pull off a triple double sign and trade even when excluding him falling flat on his face on the last two free agency summers from the equation.

[NBASupes]

The wild card for Dallas, is Shawn Marion. He has an early termination option going into this summer. If he opts out, that will open up a ton of cap space for Dallas, after they basically renounce and refuse to pick up the option on other players. And if Dwight flat out tells the Lakers that he wants to play in Dallas, you'll have a scenario in which they Lakers will have no choice but to let him walk, or take on the rest of Dallas' players.

A Shawn Marion, Vince Carter, Darren Collison, and Rodrigue Beaubois trade for Dwight . . .

. . . is one the Lakers just may do out of desperation, because it adds temporary talent to the team, and most important, a bunch of expiring contracts to the Lakers. With Kobe out until at least late December - early January, I could definitely see the Lakers taking this deal to stay somewhat relevant, then be in position to re-boot everything in the summer of 2014.

Meanwhile, Dallas would have Dwight, and could offer Paul a contract that takes up the rest of their cap room. Cuban will tell both Howard and Paul to stay patient in 2013, seeing that they would only be able to add vet and rookie minimum type guys, and maybe a good MLE level player. Then in 2014, they can add talent, and see Dirk take a significant pay cut to keep him around.

Cuban is savvy. No way is he out of the Dwight and Paul mix.

1. That deal will not make LA move the needle.

2. LA cannot do a SnT.

3. LA would rather tank and land a top pick which can be a potential franchise player, get a lot of money, healthy Kobe, and go for it again.

4. Mid 30's Shawn Marion is not opting out of his deal which also has a trade kicker.

[NBASupes]

Somehow I doubt Cuban is "savvy" enough to pull off a triple double sign and trade even when excluding him falling flat on his face on the last two free agency summers from the equation.

It is not about being savvy, it's about the other team being smarter than a tree-stool. No one not even Isiah and Babcock would do that deal.

[MaceCase]

It is not about being savvy, it's about the other team being smarter than a tree-stool. No one not even Isiah and Babcock would do that deal.

Well beyond common sense it is also factually nearly impossible for not 2 but 3 free agents to involve themselves in a sign and trade for each other. That would be rather unprecedented and Mark Cuban hasn't really ever demonstrated the magic abilities to get anything close to that done despite all the hot air. And I agree, if Marion was actually ever likely to opt out of his current deal then the Mavs wouldn't be entertaining moving their lotto pick just to clear enough space to fit one of Dwight or Paul. How they are somehow also managing to fit Paul too is the most perplexing part. Napkin math tells me that 22+20+18= 60. That's only 3 players and that's already above the cap projection.

Like I said, Cuban has built this aura around him that makes people forget that despite spending in the 100s of millions for the better part of a decade that he only walked away with one championship. That despite being billed as one of the best owners in the league he whiffed on getting even hometown guys such as Chris Bosh and Deron Williams to sign there in different free agency summers. And despite declaring that "the bank of Cuban" was open last season at the deadline he walked away with Mike James (who?) and Anthony Morrow as his only pickups.

[NBASupes]

[*]

Al Horford ($12,000,000)

[*]

Lou Williams ($5,225,000)

[*]

John Jenkins ($1,258,800)

[*]

Draft pick #17 ($1,348,200, value for draft pick explained later)

[*]

Draft pick #18 ($1,280,800)

[*]

Tolly’s caphold ($884,293)

[*]

Incomplete roster charge (6x$490,180 = $3,431,260)

+ Mack's 760,000 and Scott's 789k - 980,360(2 players)= 568,512 +3,431,260

= 3,999,277

[*]

Al Horford ($12,000,000)

[*]

Lou Williams ($5,225,000)

[*]

John Jenkins ($1,258,800)

[*]

Draft pick #17 ($1,348,200, value for draft pick explained later)

[*]

Draft pick #18 ($1,280,800)

[*]

Tolly’s caphold ($884,293)

[*]

Mack 3rd year min salary(760k)

[*]

Scott 788,872 salary

[*]

Incomplete roster charge (4x$490,180 = $1,960,720)

[*]

Total salary is 25,651,190

[*]

We have two mid 2nd round picks which was 450k last year. That could be our 9th and 10th man and it would save us 100k.

[*]

Incomplete roster charge is only valid without a player. If we sign Howard and CP3, they would be our 9th and 10th man with the picks they would be our 11th and 12th man.

[*]

With the estimated cap at 58.5, we would have up to 32.8 in cap space.

[*]

We do not have a MLE right now since we are under the cap floor but we would have one if we signed both CP3 and Dwight.

[*]

It would be smart if Dwight and CP3 took less to play together. For starters, if they want Korver they would have to take 13.5 million(27 million) in their first year a piece. Korver can sign for 4 million and we could still use our MLE.

[*]

Most likely, CP3 and Dwight will sign for 15 mil a piece(30 million) which covers most of our cap and allows us to sign the min level players and a MLE player.

[*]

While Houston with some trades could offer Dwight the max and CP3's max right now. They really couldn't get both players not can Dallas.

[*]

Atlanta at the best will have to ask Dwight and CP3 to take 5 to 3 million dollars less than they can get in LA but give them 3-1 less than they can get elsewhere. Remember, Houston cannot offer Dwight close to what LA can due to the new CBA. Makes us a lot more competitive in this race.

[*]

Basically, Atlanta can easily sign D12 and CP3 and the min level players. The issue is Atlanta has to find ways to not sign them and be capped out. They need to get them to take less and buy into team before players, wins before accolades.

[theheroatl]

[*]

Al Horford ($12,000,000)

[*]

Lou Williams ($5,225,000)

[*]

John Jenkins ($1,258,800)

[*]

Draft pick #17 ($1,348,200, value for draft pick explained later)

[*]

Draft pick #18 ($1,280,800)

[*]

Tolly’s caphold ($884,293)

[*]

Incomplete roster charge (6x$490,180 = $3,431,260)

+ Mack's 760,000 and Scott's 789k - 980,360(2 players)= 568,512 +3,431,260

= 3,999,277

[*]

Al Horford ($12,000,000)

[*]

Lou Williams ($5,225,000)

[*]

John Jenkins ($1,258,800)

[*]

Draft pick #17 ($1,348,200, value for draft pick explained later)

[*]

Draft pick #18 ($1,280,800)

[*]

Tolly’s caphold ($884,293)

[*]

Mack 3rd year min salary(760k)

[*]

Scott 788,872 salary

[*]

Incomplete roster charge (4x$490,180 = $1,960,720)

[*]

Total salary is 25,651,190

[*]

We have two mid 2nd round picks which was 450k last year. That could be our 9th and 10th man and it would save us 100k.

[*]

Incomplete roster charge is only valid without a player. If we sign Howard and CP3, they would be our 9th and 10th man with the picks they would be our 11th and 12th man.

[*]

With the estimated cap at 58.5, we would have up to 32.8 in cap space.

[*]

We do not have a MLE right now since we are under the cap floor but we would have one if we signed both CP3 and Dwight.

[*]

It would be smart if Dwight and CP3 took less to play together. For starters, if they want Korver they would have to take 13.5 million(27 million) in their first year a piece. Korver can sign for 4 million and we could still use our MLE.

[*]

Most likely, CP3 and Dwight will sign for 15 mil a piece(30 million) which covers most of our cap and allows us to sign the min level players and a MLE player.

[*]

While Houston with some trades could offer Dwight the max and CP3's max right now. They really couldn't get both players not can Dallas.

[*]

Atlanta at the best will have to ask Dwight and CP3 to take 5 to 3 million dollars less than they can get in LA but give them 3-1 less than they can get elsewhere. Remember, Houston cannot offer Dwight close to what LA can due to the new CBA. Makes us a lot more competitive in this race.

[*]

Basically, Atlanta can easily sign D12 and CP3 and the min level players. The issue is Atlanta has to find ways to not sign them and be capped out. They need to get them to take less and buy into team before players, wins before accolades.

Nice! Thanks for this.. I really want to get a post as a sticky that lists each team (vying for top free agents Chris Paul & Dwight Howard) salary situation and potential trades or needed trades.

[Kimsey]

Only way to sign Dwight and CP with both draft picks is if they chose to accept 18 million a piece. That's if you renounce everyone.

Paul

Jenkins - Lou

-

Horford

Dwight

Pick 17

Pick 18

It would be next to impossible to build a bench.

[NBASupes]

Nice! Thanks for this.. I really want to get a post as a sticky that lists each team (vying for top free agents Chris Paul & Dwight Howard) salary situation and potential trades or needed trades.

There is only two other teams that matter. Houston and Dallas.

Houston needs to trade Thomas Robinson just to offer Dwight the max. To get CP3, they need a SnT with LAC which is extremely unlikely as LAC would have as much money if they lose CP3 as Houston has right now.

Houston only chance is to land Dwight.

Dallas is in a tough spot. They have more than enough to land Dwight but they lack too much to sign CP3 and would need either a SnT or teams willing to accept their players for just cap-room. While it is possible, it is highly unlikely.

The biggest problem is we cannot sign Dwight and CP3 to the max unless we

A. Trade Al for draft picks

B. Trade everyone but Al

Atlanta would be best for their team to sign CP3 and Dwight for less money to wins and players to fit around CP3, Al, and D12. Since Al is the main drawing point to land either player, trading him isn't likely and Miami proved that if you want a super team you need to sacrifice some salary to make things work.

Atlanta would need to bring Korver back but if they can't, Corey Brewer would be the #1 target. That would be the best option.

Edited June 3, 2013 by Leadership

[NBASupes]

Only way to sign Dwight and CP with both draft picks is if they chose to accept 18 million a piece. That's if you renounce everyone.

Paul

Jenkins - Lou

-

Horford

Dwight

Pick 17

Pick 18

It would be next to impossible to build a bench.

As I explained, they would have to take even less than that. Lebron, Wade and Bosh took 14.5 mil to play with each other 43.5 mil. If we can get them to take 15-16 mil, that would be major since Al is making 12 mil a year.

[thecampster]

As I explained, they would have to take even less than that. Lebron, Wade and Bosh took 14.5 mil to play with each other 43.5 mil. If we can get them to take 15-16 mil, that would be major since Al is making 12 mil a year.

And there is no way either is taking that much less to play in Atlanta. Other markets offer much better marketing opportunities which = more salary. Atlanta will have to pony up to get both.

[NBASupes]

And there is no way either is taking that much less to play in Atlanta. Other markets offer much better marketing opportunities which = more salary. Atlanta will have to pony up to get both.

Marketing opportunities can be great in Atlanta. This is a top 10 market and had guys like Michael Vick who was the face of the NFL for about three years, Nique, Deion, and even Maddox and Glavine had marketing chances. The bottom-line is you can get marketing chances anywhere but in Atlanta, you can really get marketing chances for Basketball. Atlanta is a fantastic market for superstars, not so much for the run the of mill or the less marketable guys.

If your logic is Atlanta is not a power so they need the max and luck then Atlanta will not sign either player. Also you might as well consider Utah to be equal to Atlanta by your logic. Atlanta has proven with superstars in other sports like Vick and Nique in Basketball that this is a superstar town like LA but more urban.

Edited June 3, 2013 by Leadership