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NBA Rookie Watch: Early Observations (NBA Insider Request)


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4. Dennis Schröder, Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks were shredded in Dallas but have to be happy with the play of their young point guard. He played with poise and confidence, far more like a veteran than a rookie.

Never in a rush, he probed on ball-screen actions well and looked to occupy the helping big before finding the helper's man.

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Thursday, October 24, 2013
Updated: November 1, 11:59 AM ET

Rookie Watch: Early observations

By David Thorpe
ESPN Insider

Michael Carter-Williams had a record-setting debut for the Sixers on Wednesday.

The "rule of one" can never be ignored. At least not for very long. One shot, one pass, one block, one game, one week, one month and even one season rarely tell us anything definitive. Rather they are suggestions of what is possible on a consistent basis. Without doubt, these rookie reviews and rankings will jump and skip all over the place each week, as they do each year.

Players this young tend to have wild swings in production and efficiency before eventually putting together longer strings of similar performances. But that's what makes following the rookies so much fun! Too bad, though, because if one rookie could keep doing what he did on opening night, we would be in for one amazing ride.

Here's a rundown of every rookie who played on opening night, plus an early look at the top 10 rooks based on their first games, preseason and summer league. (We'll begin our top 50 rankings next week.)

Early Top 10

1. Michael-Carter Williams, Philadelphia 76ers
If Sixers fans are looking for signs that MCW can be a huge part of their future, then opening night gave them plenty of reason for optimism. To start, his stats line of 22 points, 12 assists, 7 rebounds and 9 steals was so good it seems almost silly. To play that way against the two-time NBA champs makes it even more so.

His first points as a pro came from a monster slam that followed a steal and a speedy coast-to-coast push. His first non-dunk field goal was even more significant; it came from a corner 3 as he slid nicely to that spot when he saw Thaddeus Young stuck behind the block. Teams that didn't draft him were worried he wasn't going to be an effective shooter. His third bucket came from his own rebound and push, lifting to shoot from the top of the key a la Chauncey Billups.

Pull-up 3s? Nine steals? Flirting with a quadruple-double? The only negative part of his first night was that he has set the bar so incredibly high that any future 10-point, 6-rebound, 5-assist games with a few steals will seem humdrum. But if he can be the kind of player who lifts this bad team from 12 or 15 wins to 30 this season -- with games like this here and there -- he'll coast to a ROY award and make his opening night a story that will last for generations.

2. Victor Oladipo, Orlando Magic
Oladipo showed off his amazing speed in Orlando's loss to Indiana, reminding scouts of what Dwyane Wade looked like as a rookie. While Oladipo isn't the scorer Wade was early on, the No. 2 overall pick was aggressive on offense, which is a good sign in his first game. He also showed signs of one day becoming an elite defender, with great quickness in tight spaces, length and an attitude that screams "I can defend anyone."

3. Tim Hardaway Jr., New York Knicks
Hardaway had a great preseason and it carried over to his 15 minutes of his first game. He took just two shots but made them both, one being a 3 that just beat the shot clock. He should have had another 3, though, but elected to shoot just in front of the line. He will learn that uncontested 3s are always better than uncontested long 2s.

4. Dennis Schröder, Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks were shredded in Dallas but have to be happy with the play of their young point guard. He played with poise and confidence, far more like a veteran than a rookie.

Never in a rush, he probed on ball-screen actions well and looked to occupy the helping big before finding the helper's man.

5. Steven Adams, Oklahoma City Thunder
Adams had a solid debut, making a few nice things happen in 18 minutes. He's going to be exactly what the Thunder need over the next four years, a cheap-but-quality big man who can take some minutes away from Kendrick Perkins. A smooth athlete with great size, he has some Zaza Pachulia in him, but had some tough moments dealing with Utah rook Rudy Gobert (but so will the rest of the league, thanks to Gobert's incredible length). Adams has the power to move long, thin guys farther from the hoop on shot attempts better than what he showed in his first game.

6. Ben McLemore, Sacramento Kings
The Kings did fine as a team when McLemore was on the floor, but the rookie's 1-for-7 night (1-for-5 from long range) was not memorable. McLemore has the ability to get buckets and should not just settle for 3s. But there is plenty of hope for him; Paul George settled for long shots as a rookie, and now he's an All-Star.

7. Kelly Olynyk, Boston Celtics
Olynyk was good during summer league and preseason but did not play well in his first official action. However, his feel for posting and sealing guys inside, combined with his perimeter game, suggests he'll be a tough guy for many backup power forwards to defend. He picked up more turnovers (3) than field goals (2) in his first game, pushing too much when posting or throwing his elbows more than he should, but he'll quickly learn how to post cleanly in the NBA. Remember, he could get away with far more in college than he can now.

8. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Detroit Pistons
He missed eight of his 12 shots in the Pistons' opening-night win. But Detroit should be pleased with his aggressiveness and shot selection -- 10 of his shots were good ones. He also gets great arc on his shots and showed some athleticism and quickness to earn those looks. KCP is going to put up some big numbers from time to time for this team.

9. Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz
Wow. Add Gobert to the list of guys who probably should have been drafted higher. His length is such a factor, given his willingness to hang around in the paint. He was not great against OKC, but if he can pull down five to seven rebounds a game now, imagine what he'll be able to do when he gets stronger. He should be careful to add strength more so than weight, otherwise he could be looking at a lot of health issues.

10. Gal Mekel, Dallas Mavericks
Dallas has no other backup point guard as a result of injuries to fellow rookie Shane Larkin and to Devin Harris. Mekel had a good preseason but was just OK in his first game. He had two bad turnovers that will put him on the bench soon if he doesn't make the corrections. Still, Dallas' offense flows nicely when Mekel is in, and he is an underrated defender.

The rest

Anthony Bennett, Cleveland Cavaliers
Some players have "no conscience" as it relates to their shot selection. After his first game, we might see Bennett's picture next to that phrase. He was on the court for a full 10 seconds before he set a side ball screen for Jarrett Jack, then popped to a spot well behind the 3-point line and took the wide-open shot. But he was wide open because that's a shot the Nets hoped he'd take in his first 15 seconds of game time. He missed, naturally, as he did every other field goal he attempted, included two more 3s. Bennett has a great-looking shot, though. So once he learns when to shoot, he will make plenty of shots.

Cody Zeller, Charlotte Bobcats
Zeller saw quality minutes in Houston and his team was quite competitive. He has short arms, and that hurts him as a finisher in the paint, though he showed a nice compact shot-fake-and-attack drive that can work well for him going forward. He looks to have more success playing outside and moving in than starting in and staying there.

Alex Len, Phoenix Suns
Recovering from an ankle injury this preseason, Len played eight minutes in his first game and made a nice "handsy" rebound against two Trail Blazers in traffic in the fourth quarter.

Solomon Hill, Indiana Pacers
Hill made a somewhat surprising appearance at the start of the second quarter in Indiana's first game, getting the nod over Chris Copeland, who struggled in the preseason. Hill played eight minutes but did nothing to suggest he'll be a fixture in the rotation.

Tony Snell, Chicago Bulls
Snell entered Tuesday night's game in Miami in the second quarter with the Heat on a big run and up by 11 points. Miami kept the run going and led the Bulls by 21 at halftime, with Snell missing three wide-open 3s in that span. The good news is that, unlike most rookie shooters, his balance and follow-through were great. So there is reason for optimism that Snell will be a player who can help stretch the floor horizontally in Chicago's half-court sets.

Reggie Bullock, Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers were smacked around by the Lakers in their opener, which gave Bullock a chance to play in the game's final minute. He made a nice pull-up jumper, but that won't help him crack the rotation any time soon. He just needs to stay focused and wait for his opportunity.

Phil Pressey, Boston Celtics
An undrafted guard, Pressey saw four minutes of court time Wednesday night against the Toronto Raptors. Pressey needs to soak up all he can now, as he's likely spend time in the D-League once the season gets going.

Pero Antić, Atlanta Hawks
Antić is 31 and huge, but he did little in his limited playing time. He should be an excellent screen setter but isn't yet; he stood too tall against Dallas and did not have a wide base.

Tony Mitchell, Detroit Pistons
The second-round pick got himself a rebound in his 18 seconds at the end of the game.

Nate Wolters, Milwaukee Bucks
With Bucks starting point guard Brandon Knight leaving their first game after just two minutes, Wolters got a chance to play a lot. He played under control, but probably too controlled, dribbling way too much and not going anywhere for too long. He has a nice floater, though like most young guards, he was unsure whether he should drive and shoot or just let a play develop. Getting those minutes can help him improve quickly and measurably.

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
He played just under five minutes and did little, though he did run out after a steal and drew a foul on his layup attempt. However, he caught the pass on the right wing but left the ball on his left hip. The defender could have stripped it cleanly. Young guys struggle with "hiding" the ball on the side opposite the nearest defender. A slim wing like Giannis needs to learn ball-security tricks quickly.

Arinze Onuaku, New Orleans Pelicans
The large 26-year-old has some Reggie Evans in him, showing an appetite to hit people and keep them off the glass. He does not, however, appear to have the part of Evans' game that makes him special: rebounding out of area. The ball found Onuaku five times on misses, which is fine, but that won't happen too often.

Archie Goodwin, Phoenix Suns
Goodwin showed his potential during his eight minutes of game time, driving to the rim and creating two easy putbacks for his bigs because he drew help from the opponents' big man. He had a nice left-handed scoop that missed, a shot that will help him immensely if he can make it frequently. Scoops are a crafty way to shoot, and with his quickness, adding that craft makes him a much tougher guy to defend.

Elias Harris, Los Angeles Lakers
The undrafted guard out of Gonzaga made a good defensive play in his eight minutes, slinking down to the corner to steal a pass. Harris had a good summer league and is one of many guys who can point to that experience as one that changed his career path.

Ognjen Kuzmic, Golden State Warriors
The 7-footer played some garbage time in the Warriors' blowout win over the Lakers. He had a nice rim run in transition and a hilarious post-seal against Jordan Farmarthat forced the little Laker to foul Kuzmic, who looked like Andre the Giant against him. Big men who like loitering near the rim are rare.

Nemanja Nedovic, Golden State Wariors
The final pick of the first round of the draft, Nedovic joined Kuzmic in garbage time and tossed up, well, garbage in his only shot attempt. Dribbling backward and left before shooting a 3 and falling away is no way to make a shot. That he air-balled it is only justice.

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The "rule of one" can never be ignored. At least not for very long. One shot, one pass, one block, one game, one week, one month and even one season rarely tell us anything definitive. Rather they are suggestions of what is possible on a consistent basis. Without doubt, these rookie reviews and rankings will jump and skip all over the place each week, as they do each year.

Players this young tend to have wild swings in production and efficiency before eventually putting together longer strings of similar performances. But that's what makes following the rookies so much fun! Too bad, though, because if one rookie could keep doing what he did on opening night, we would be in for one amazing ride.

Here's a rundown of every rookie who played on opening night, plus an early look at the top 10 rooks based on their first games, preseason and summer league. (We'll begin our top 50 rankings next week.)

Early Top 10

1. Michael-Carter Williams, Philadelphia 76ers
If Sixers fans are looking for signs that MCW can be a huge part of their future, then opening night gave them plenty of reason for optimism. To start, his stats line of 22 points, 12 assists, 7 rebounds and 9 steals was so good it seems almost silly. To play that way against the two-time NBA champs makes it even more so.

His first points as a pro came from a monster slam that followed a steal and a speedy coast-to-coast push. His first non-dunk field goal was even more significant; it came from a corner 3 as he slid nicely to that spot when he saw Thaddeus Young stuck behind the block. Teams that didn't draft him were worried he wasn't going to be an effective shooter. His third bucket came from his own rebound and push, lifting to shoot from the top of the key a laChauncey Billups.

Pull-up 3s? Nine steals? Flirting with a quadruple-double? The only negative part of his first night was that he has set the bar so incredibly high that any future 10-point, 6-rebound, 5-assist games with a few steals will seem humdrum. But if he can be the kind of player who lifts this bad team from 12 or 15 wins to 30 this season -- with games like this here and there -- he'll coast to a ROY award and make his opening night a story that will last for generations.

2. Victor Oladipo, Orlando Magic
Oladipo showed off his amazing speed in Orlando's loss to Indiana, reminding scouts of what Dwyane Wade looked like as a rookie. While Oladipo isn't the scorer Wade was early on, the No. 2 overall pick was aggressive on offense, which is a good sign in his first game. He also showed signs of one day becoming an elite defender, with great quickness in tight spaces, length and an attitude that screams "I can defend anyone."

3. Tim Hardaway Jr., New York Knicks
Hardaway had a great preseason and it carried over to his 15 minutes of his first game. He took just two shots but made them both, one being a 3 that just beat the shot clock. He should have had another 3, though, but elected to shoot just in front of the line. He will learn that uncontested 3s are always better than uncontested long 2s.

4. Dennis Schröder, Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks were shredded in Dallas but have to be happy with the play of their young point guard. He played with poise and confidence, far more like a veteran than a rookie. Never in a rush, he probed on ball-screen actions well and looked to occupy the helping big before finding the helper's man.

5. Steven Adams, Oklahoma City Thunder
Adams had a solid debut, making a few nice things happen in 18 minutes. He's going to be exactly what the Thunder need over the next four years, a cheap-but-quality big man who can take some minutes away from Kendrick Perkins. A smooth athlete with great size, he has some Zaza Pachulia in him, but had some tough moments dealing with Utah rook Rudy Gobert (but so will the rest of the league, thanks to Gobert's incredible length). Adams has the power to move long, thin guys farther from the hoop on shot attempts better than what he showed in his first game.

6. Ben McLemore, Sacramento Kings
The Kings did fine as a team when McLemore was on the floor, but the rookie's 1-for-7 night (1-for-5 from long range) was not memorable. McLemore has the ability to get buckets and should not just settle for 3s. But there is plenty of hope for him;Paul George settled for long shots as a rookie, and now he's an All-Star.

7. Kelly Olynyk, Boston Celtics
Olynyk was good during summer league and preseason but did not play well in his first official action. However, his feel for posting and sealing guys inside, combined with his perimeter game, suggests he'll be a tough guy for many backup power forwards to defend. He picked up more turnovers (3) than field goals (2) in his first game, pushing too much when posting or throwing his elbows more than he should, but he'll quickly learn how to post cleanly in the NBA. Remember, he could get away with far more in college than he can now.

8. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Detroit Pistons
He missed eight of his 12 shots in the Pistons' opening-night win. But Detroit should be pleased with his aggressiveness and shot selection -- 10 of his shots were good ones. He also gets great arc on his shots and showed some athleticism and quickness to earn those looks. KCP is going to put up some big numbers from time to time for this team.

9. Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz
Wow. Add Gobert to the list of guys who probably should have been drafted higher. His length is such a factor, given his willingness to hang around in the paint. He was not great against OKC, but if he can pull down five to seven rebounds a game now, imagine what he'll be able to do when he gets stronger. He should be careful to add strength more so than weight, otherwise he could be looking at a lot of health issues.

10. Gal Mekel, Dallas Mavericks
Dallas has no other backup point guard as a result of injuries to fellow rookie Shane Larkin and to Devin Harris. Mekel had a good preseason but was just OK in his first game. He had two bad turnovers that will put him on the bench soon if he doesn't make the corrections. Still, Dallas' offense flows nicely when Mekel is in, and he is an underrated defender.

The rest

Anthony Bennett, Cleveland Cavaliers

Some players have "no conscience" as it relates to their shot selection. After his first game, we might see Bennett's picture next to that phrase. He was on the court for a full 10 seconds before he set a side ball screen for Jarrett Jack, then popped to a spot well behind the 3-point line and took the wide-open shot. But he was wide open because that's a shot the Nets hoped he'd take in his first 15 seconds of game time. He missed, naturally, as he did every other field goal he attempted, included two more 3s. Bennett has a great-looking shot, though. So once he learns when to shoot, he will make plenty of shots.

Cody Zeller, Charlotte Bobcats

Zeller saw quality minutes in Houston and his team was quite competitive. He has short arms, and that hurts him as a finisher in the paint, though he showed a nice compact shot-fake-and-attack drive that can work well for him going forward. He looks to have more success playing outside and moving in than starting in and staying there.

Alex Len, Phoenix Suns
Recovering from an ankle injury this preseason, Len played eight minutes in his first game and made a nice "handsy" rebound against two Trail Blazers in traffic in the fourth quarter.

Solomon Hill, Indiana Pacers
Hill made a somewhat surprising appearance at the start of the second quarter in Indiana's first game, getting the nod over Chris Copeland, who struggled in the preseason. Hill played eight minutes but did nothing to suggest he'll be a fixture in the rotation.

Tony Snell, Chicago Bulls
Snell entered Tuesday night's game in Miami in the second quarter with the Heat on a big run and up by 11 points. Miami kept the run going and led the Bulls by 21 at halftime, with Snell missing three wide-open 3s in that span. The good news is that, unlike most rookie shooters, his balance and follow-through were great. So there is reason for optimism that Snell will be a player who can help stretch the floor horizontally in Chicago's half-court sets.

Reggie Bullock, Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers were smacked around by the Lakers in their opener, which gave Bullock a chance to play in the game's final minute. He made a nice pull-up jumper, but that won't help him crack the rotation any time soon. He just needs to stay focused and wait for his opportunity.

Phil Pressey, Boston Celtics
An undrafted guard, Pressey saw four minutes of court time Wednesday night against theToronto Raptors. Pressey needs to soak up all he can now, as he's likely spend time in the D-League once the season gets going.

Pero Antić, Atlanta Hawks
Antić is 31 and huge, but he did little in his limited playing time. He should be an excellent screen setter but isn't yet; he stood too tall against Dallas and did not have a wide base.

Tony Mitchell, Detroit Pistons
The second-round pick got himself a rebound in his 18 seconds at the end of the game.

Nate Wolters, Milwaukee Bucks

With Bucks starting point guard Brandon Knight leaving their first game after just two minutes, Wolters got a chance to play a lot. He played under control, but probably too controlled, dribbling way too much and not going anywhere for too long. He has a nice floater, though like most young guards, he was unsure whether he should drive and shoot or just let a play develop. Getting those minutes can help him improve quickly and measurably.

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
He played just under five minutes and did little, though he did run out after a steal and drew a foul on his layup attempt. However, he caught the pass on the right wing but left the ball on his left hip. The defender could have stripped it cleanly. Young guys struggle with "hiding" the ball on the side opposite the nearest defender. A slim wing like Giannis needs to learn ball-security tricks quickly.

Arinze Onuaku, New Orleans Pelicans
The large 26-year-old has some Reggie Evans in him, showing an appetite to hit people and keep them off the glass. He does not, however, appear to have the part of Evans' game that makes him special: rebounding out of area. The ball found Onuaku five times on misses, which is fine, but that won't happen too often.

Archie Goodwin, Phoenix Suns
Goodwin showed his potential during his eight minutes of game time, driving to the rim and creating two easy putbacks for his bigs because he drew help from the opponents' big man. He had a nice left-handed scoop that missed, a shot that will help him immensely if he can make it frequently. Scoops are a crafty way to shoot, and with his quickness, adding that craft makes him a much tougher guy to defend.

Elias Harris, Los Angeles Lakers

The undrafted guard out of Gonzaga made a good defensive play in his eight minutes, slinking down to the corner to steal a pass. Harris had a good summer league and is one of many guys who can point to that experience as one that changed his career path.

Ognjen Kuzmic, Golden State Warriors

The 7-footer played some garbage time in the Warriors' blowout win over the Lakers. He had a nice rim run in transition and a hilarious post-seal against Jordan Farmar that forced the little Laker to foul Kuzmic, who looked like Andre the Giant against him. Big men who like loitering near the rim are rare.

Nemanja Nedovic, Golden State Wariors

The final pick of the first round of the draft, Nedovic joined Kuzmic in garbage time and tossed up, well, garbage in his only shot attempt. Dribbling backward and left before shooting a 3 and falling away is no way to make a shot. That he air-balled it is only justice.

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Good, quick analysis. Any and everyone can see the budding floor general in the kid. David Thorpe is some kind of basketball geek to have studied every rookie in a couple days. I keep saying I'm gonna get Insider, I guess nows the time. All the rookies need a boost to catch Michael Carter Williams on the Tracker though. He set the bar pretty damn high out the gate.

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