So what will be the main 13?

[AHF]

Just now, JayBirdHawk said:

Moose's season was disappointing -  it started in Summer League where I expected him to at least look like an NBA player with experience.  He was still getting pushed around.

He is an OK scorer and subpar rebounder.  He is like Splitter except that he has no strength so he is a defensive liability.  Splitter's value derives almost entirely from his defense so Tiago with no D is not hard to find.  I'll pull info  on that but basketball reference is having problems for me at the moment.

[Guest]

39 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Think Lou Williams - he also tore his ACL in January.  Took him awhile to get back up to speed.  Jack will also be 33 years old when the season starts.

I think Bud will let him ease back into basketball shape. 

Totally agree that it's a severe injury. But also think that healing time varies from player to player. Personally I think Jack can recover faster than Lou. It's just a gut feeling and I'm not saying that Jack it tougher but...well ya I kinda am lol

[sturt]

2 hours ago, AHF said:

He is an OK scorer and subpar rebounder.  He is like Splitter except that he has no strength so he is a defensive liability.  Splitter's value derives almost entirely from his defense so Tiago with no D is not hard to find.  I'll pull info  on that but basketball reference is having problems for me at the moment.

Agree: He still needs upper body strength.

Disagree: He is a capable scorer, and on this team, more often than not, has been right with the best rebounders... but there's certainly room for improvement in both areas. 

 

He's not where he was expected to be, given his progress shown in his sophomore season, but he didn't fall off the wagon. It's still reasonable if not smart to see what he can do for $1m this season.

 

[AHF]

Seeing his name in the rebounding % column next to last year's Al Horford, Pero Antic and injured Splitter fails to convince me he is not a subpar rebounder for a big man.  Showing he dominated the Patriot league in college also fails to win me over.

He is (for some reason) on a guaranteed contract with us so I just want to see him take a big jump forward this year.

[sturt]

11 minutes ago, AHF said:

Seeing his name in the rebounding % column next to last year's Al Horford, Pero Antic and injured Splitter fails to convince me he is not a subpar rebounder for a big man.  Showing he dominated the Patriot league in college also fails to win me over.

He is (for some reason) on a guaranteed contract with us so I just want to see him take a big jump forward this year.

Yes, but that's one year.

Heretofore, he's rivaled Milsap's numbers, and while playing in the Patriot League may have enhanced his ranking, it's still better to be ranked 2nd in all of NCAA having played there than somewhere down the list... ie, that at least puts him in the conversation of best rebounders coming out in the draft that year.

Again.... he's just turned 25 this month. Rule of thumb I've always heard said is that most NBA players don't plateau until their 25 year-old season at the earliest. There's merit in seeing what happens this year with him, imo.

[AHF]

12 minutes ago, sturt said:

Yes, but that's one year.

Antic did not play for us last year so it is really 2 out of his 3 seasons.  He is a slightly better rebounder than Thabo those years.  Color me unimpressed with that.

Quote

Heretofore, he's rivaled Milsap's numbers, and while playing in the Patriot League may have enhanced his ranking, it's still better to be ranked 2nd in all of NCAA having played there than somewhere down the list... ie, that at least puts him in the conversation of best rebounders coming out in the draft that year.

Again.... he's just turned 25 this month. Rule of thumb I've always heard said is that most NBA players don't plateau until their 25 year-old season at the earliest. There's merit in seeing what happens this year with him, imo.

College - especially minor league college - doesn't mean jack if it doesn't translate to the NBA.  His career best season ranks 284th in TRB% over the last 3 years among players with at least 300 minutes in that season.  Last season's number ranks 414th and falls behind some pretty bad rebounders and even some swingmen.  So I'm sticking with the subpar rebounder label until he proves otherwise (particularly since his biggest rebounding impact has been on offense).

http://bkref.com/tiny/ju7Xm

My biggest worry is that he is going to have a season like last year where he is stealing minutes from more productive alternatives (Hump) or more promising young players (Edy).

He needs to take a big step up to justify the roster spot, IMO.  It could happen.  I'm not ruling that out but I was expecting it last season and we sure didn't see it.

[sturt]

He rivaled Sap in his first two seasons. That's impressive.

He didn't rival Sap in his third. That's not impressive.

And to be clear, I'm not asserting that he was necessarily an exceptional college rebounder. I'm very precise here. All I'm saying is on that front is, he could have eliminated himself from the conversation and didn't. He did what he could possibly do at that stage, which is not something everyone can say. All of which doesn't make him a valuable commodity at this stage, but does put a finger on the scale toward the benefit of a doubt from my perspective.

In the previous thread, I looked at him in comparison to Zaza at approximately the same point in their careers.... Zaza slightly better rebounder, Moose slightly better shooter.

It's worth a year to get more data.

[AHF]

Sap is not a great rebounder but look at Muscala's defensive rebounding compared to Sap's.  The only reason Muscala ever had TRB% numbers similar to Sap is that he was allowed to hit the offensive boards more against opposing team reserve players.

2015-16

Sap 21.5% DRB%

Moose 14.9% DRB%

2014-15

Sap 20% DRB%

Moose 14.8% DRB%

2013-14

Sap 21.9% DRB%

Moose 18.7% DRB%

[sturt]

23 minutes ago, AHF said:

Sap is not a great rebounder but look at Muscala's defensive rebounding compared to Sap's.  The only reason Muscala ever had TRB% numbers similar to Sap is that he was allowed to hit the offensive boards more against opposing team reserve players.

2015-16

Sap 21.5% DRB%

Moose 14.9% DRB%

2014-15

Sap 20% DRB%

Moose 14.8% DRB%

2013-14

Sap 21.9% DRB%

Moose 18.7% DRB%

 

No, but he is a good  rebounder. And if Moose can get back to rivaling a good rebounder, together with getting back to a better 3pt%, I for one will be content. Certainly, there's a reason they signed Hump;  had Moose performed better last season, that wouldn't have happened. And so, truly, Moose' roster slot is hanging by a thread as it should be, depending on Scott's status and on if any better opportunity surfaces.

 

[AHF]

1 minute ago, sturt said:

No, but he is a good  rebounder. And if Moose can get back to rivaling a good rebounder, together with getting back to a better 3pt%, I for one will be content. Certainly, there's a reason they signed Hump;  had Moose performed better last season, that wouldn't have happened. And so, truly, Moose' roster slot is hanging by a thread as it should be, depending on Scott's status and on if any better opportunity surfaces.

 

I don't think he has ever rivaled Sap as a rebounder.  Sap has dominated Moose on the defensive boards every  year - it has not been close.  Moose just had the freedom to hit the offensive boards harder against opposing scrubs than Sap is allowed to do against opposing starters.  

I do agree Moose is the last roster spot.  Wish we would not have guaranteed him for that reason.

[AHF]

Let's get real on that defensive rebounding.  Here are the last two seasons.  If anyone is impressed with the rebounding of our "big man" on the defensive boards then you have low standards.

2015-16

Sap 21.%

Edy 20.5%

Hump 18.5%

Al 18.2%

Baze 18.0%

Thabo 17.1%

Hinrich 15.4%

Moose 14.9%

Splitter 13.8%

Patterson 12.4%

2014-15

Sap 20.0%

Al 19.8%

Thabo 19.3%

Baze 16.8%

Brand 16.4%

Scott 15.2%

Moose 14.8%

Daye 14.6%

Pero 14.0%

2013-14

Gustavo Ayon	22.3
Paul Millsap	21.9
Elton Brand	21.5
Al Horford	21.4
Pero Antic	18.9
Mike Muscala	18.7
Mike Scott	17.2

[sturt]

 

6 minutes ago, AHF said:

I don't think he has ever rivaled Sap as a rebounder.  Sap has dominated Moose on the defensive boards every  year - it has not been close.  Moose just had the freedom to hit the offensive boards harder against opposing scrubs than Sap is allowed to do against opposing starters.  

I do agree Moose is the last roster spot.  Wish we would not have guaranteed him for that reason.

Perhaps. Moose did get more regular rotation PT last season, and so, I too am inclined to think that that explains a lot of what set him back. I can't say it enough.... I'm not asserting that he did anything to get excited about, I'm only asserting that the jury is still out as it should be.

 

 

[AHF]

12 minutes ago, sturt said:

Perhaps. Moose did get more regular rotation PT last season, and so, I too am inclined to think that that explains a lot of what set him back. I can't say it enough.... I'm not asserting that he did anything to get excited about, I'm only asserting that the jury is still out as it should be.

I'm not arguing against any of that, although I wouldn't say regular playing time in the rotation set him back so much as gave us a better idea of what he really can do in the structure of a regular role.  Just saying that what the jury has seen so far shows a weak defender and subpar rebounder, IMO.  Wish we didn't guarantee his deal this season, and now he needs to make a big jump to justify that show of faith from Bud. 

[sturt]

3 minutes ago, AHF said:

I'm not arguing against any of that, although I wouldn't say regular playing time in the rotation set him back so much as gave us a better idea of what he really can do in the structure of a regular role.  Just saying that what the jury has seen so far shows a weak defender and subpar rebounder, IMO.  Wish we didn't guarantee his deal this season, and now he needs to make a big jump to justify that show of faith from Bud. 

po-tae-toe, pat-tot-oe

[AHF]

3 minutes ago, sturt said:

po-tae-toe, pat-tot-oe

He went from basically being able to drift around and hit the boards against scrubs to having to actually run Bud's system and get back on D as a more regular part of the rotation.  That isn't 'setting him back' -- it is getting a look at him actually playing Bud ball.  That means stopping the inflation of his offensive rebounding numbers from when he could play outside the system versus scrubs and gave us a look of what his rebounding actually looks like in Bud's disciplined system.  The fact that Pero, Baze and Thabo have all been better defensive rebounders every year while they have been with the Hawks than Moose says it all, IMO.

[sturt]

Um. Statistically, it was setting him back, even while it was giving him the look you suggest. Thus one and the same.

Edit: And again... not saying your theory doesn't hold water, but am saying you're more persuaded that it's totally correct than I can be persuaded at this stage.

 

 

[Guest]

All this yakity-yak for a $1 mil end of bench guy - you guys, lol.

[sturt]

He started it, mom!

;)

[AHF]

3 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

All this yakity-yak for a $1 mil end of bench guy - you guys, lol.

We are going to have to cut someone if Scott doesn't get the ax and the last guy we signed was Humphries who is drastically better.  I think you'll see other better options sign cheap before FA is done.  Just a wasted opportunity if he doesn't dramatically improve.

[sturt]

Yes. I thought we already agreed on that, but if we didn't, we should have.