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Cornered Market (article about free agency building)


DBac

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He also has some articles about the "roll of the dice" that the draft is:

https://cleaningtheglass.com/a-roll-of-the-dice-part-1/

Quote

One example of this kind of luck: a team can get a draft pick correct, but for the wrong reasons. It was reported that, as GM of the Atlanta Hawks in 2007, Billy Knight wanted to select Al Horford (at least in part) because of the size of Horford’s butt. Horford, of course, has turned into a very good selection. But if that pick was made for a reason that seems tangential (if not completely unrelated) to Horford’s success, then that doesn’t make the person who selected him a “wizard”.

 

https://cleaningtheglass.com/a-roll-of-the-dice-part-2/

https://cleaningtheglass.com/a-roll-of-the-dice-part-3/

Quote

But the draft is a calculated gamble. A gamble where it pays to think in terms of risk and wrestle with uncertainty. A gamble where you have to use all of the tools at your disposal, understand the strengths and weaknesses of human psychology, and lean on statistical analysis when necessary. A gamble where you do all the work you can, get a sense of the probabilities, place your bet, and then roll the dice.

 

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