Jacob Goldstein's Projections Model

[KB21]

This projection model has the Hawks at 23.2 projected wins for the season with a potential range of 16.9 to 30.7 wins.  

I still think they end up somewhere in the 18-20 win range.  When you combine the inexperience this team has, the lack of above average veterans, and the weakness of the current coaching staff, the mix to play above expectations just isn't there.  

[KB21]

Also, this projection model has the Cavs at 32.3 wins and Dallas at 32.6 wins, which puts them 8th and 9th in draft order based on record.  If the Cavs can somehow overachieve by 3 wins, Atlanta could get that pick.  Considering that Ty Lue is their coach for now, I don't anticipate that happening.  The Hawks would get the Dallas pick based on these results.

[hazer]

In line with my 28 wins projection, and 3 lottery picks next year.

[KB21]

7 minutes ago, hazer said:

In line with my 28 wins projection, and 3 lottery picks next year.

If you want to think so.  If the Hawks still had Bud, then I'd think they could get to 28 wins.  With Pierce, that isn't happening.

[thecampster]

20 minutes ago, KB21 said:

This projection model has the Hawks at 23.2 projected wins for the season with a potential range of 16.9 to 30.7 wins.  

I still think they end up somewhere in the 18-20 win range.  When you combine the inexperience this team has, the lack of above average veterans, and the weakness of the current coaching staff, the mix to play above expectations just isn't there.  

The Goldstein model definitely has one flaw that has been proven time and again when it comes to young teams. It doesn't account for team speed.  Too much youth isn't a good thing except when it comes to team speed and the Hawks will be busting with team speed.  Also, youth usually means dumb passes and turnovers. The interesting thing with this rebuild is the focus on players with good handles who can pass. Typically, young players are all dive to the basket high flyers but this assembled group can all put the ball on the floor and is smarter with the basketball.  I'm waiting on the last 2 signings to give my final prediction but I'm thinking we're gonna be close to that 35 win mark.  I'm primarily focusing on the content of what we lost (see other posts) and what they were replaced with. Sadly, much of the success rides with Young and how quickly he adapts to the speed of the NBA game. The good news is there isn't much left in the way of dump contracts at the deadline (maybe Lin/Baze).

[hazer]

13 minutes ago, KB21 said:

If you want to think so.  If the Hawks still had Bud, then I'd think they could get to 28 wins.  With Pierce, that isn't happening.

I just don’t want to, I do. You’re failing to take into account these guys will play harder for CLP. Youth and coaching inexperience will definitely limit them. Limit them from the crazy 35 wins and challenging for 8th playoffs spot projections. But not from 28 wins, which they’ll achieve. Hello 3 lottery picks in ‘19.

[thecampster]

Well the greatest flaw in all of these models is injury.  That IMHO is the greatest x-factor on any team. The problem with young teams is they are typically injury prone (especially young PG's until they learn its a different game). Injuries play the largest part in these things. Injuries not only get good players off the floor, they disrupt chemistry.

[hazer]

Hawks will pick 8th, Mavs (Hawks) 9th, and Cavs (Hawks) 12th. 3 top 12 picks. Bundle that for top 3 pick. 

[NBASupes]

12 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Well the greatest flaw in all of these models is injury.  That IMHO is the greatest x-factor on any team. The problem with young teams is they are typically injury prone (especially young PG's until they learn its a different game). Injuries play the largest part in these things. Injuries not only get good players off the floor, they disrupt chemistry.

This times 100%. My current max for this squad is 29 wins. Len really doesn't make a difference for me but he's not a negative like Plumlee is which helps. He has to tremendously improve this offseason. 

[KB21]

10 hours ago, thecampster said:

The Goldstein model definitely has one flaw that has been proven time and again when it comes to young teams. It doesn't account for team speed.  Too much youth isn't a good thing except when it comes to team speed and the Hawks will be busting with team speed.  Also, youth usually means dumb passes and turnovers. The interesting thing with this rebuild is the focus on players with good handles who can pass. Typically, young players are all dive to the basket high flyers but this assembled group can all put the ball on the floor and is smarter with the basketball.  I'm waiting on the last 2 signings to give my final prediction but I'm thinking we're gonna be close to that 35 win mark.  I'm primarily focusing on the content of what we lost (see other posts) and what they were replaced with. Sadly, much of the success rides with Young and how quickly he adapts to the speed of the NBA game. The good news is there isn't much left in the way of dump contracts at the deadline (maybe Lin/Baze).

Eh, I don't see it.  The pace Pierce will have this team playing at is with the intent on the players making a lot of mistakes.  Trae Young even comes in as a turnover machine.  I don't think this group of rookies will be an exception to the general rule in the NBA.

[Thomas]

16 hours ago, thecampster said:

Well the greatest flaw in all of these models is injury.  That IMHO is the greatest x-factor on any team. The problem with young teams is they are typically injury prone (especially young PG's until they learn its a different game). Injuries play the largest part in these things. Injuries not only get good players off the floor, they disrupt chemistry.

Thats pretty much my fear with Lin even with Chelsea on board and then what happens if Trae plays a ton of minutes most of the season because of that even with Bembry still here. And then D-league two way players are well just that, D-league two way players. My fingers are definitely crossed.