The Odds Are Pretty Good (Retaining JC)

[sillent]

https://www.peachtreehoops.com/2021/7/13/22575411/john-collins-free-agency-rumors-atlanta-hawks-miami-heat-dallas-mavericks-spurs-timberwolves-report

Out of the 4 teams with cap space that are pursuing John is Heat, Spurs, Mavericks and Timberwolves.

All of these teams will need more than JC to contend and two of them in the Spurs and Timberwolves may need alot more. John with a max would put a cap on Miami and Mavericks to get much better. Bam is a decent defender but I believe Onyeka has more intangibles on that end of the floor and as much as I love John a Jimmy, JC and Bam pairing doesn't necessarily scream out contender.

Same with Luka,JC and Portzingis and the Mavericks and Heat actually have alot on their plate as far as retaining some of their own players to fully concentrate on ours.

Realistically the Spurs may have the best chance but does that put the Spurs over the top or even a serious playoff contender? They would have to keep Derozan in order to make the John move worth it (as far as winning now) and is that a healthy timeline for JC (who just dealt with 3yrs of struggling on a young team) or the Spurs who will still be young and betting on someone who hasn't carried a team by himself with a max? They could but with the Spurs are in position to draft a player like Kai Jones who is from Texas, oozing with potential and already a better projected defender than John and also has other intangibles. Would it be worth it to them? The Spurs aren't the type of organization to make big unnecessary splashes in free agency. Possibly if their contender window was clearer and John puts them over the edge but right now that's not the case.

We are in a unique position to where we do have replacements if necessary and can make further moves if we don't keep John.

The teams mentioned and not mentioned don't necessarily get better with (max money) John. 

Overall I think it works in everyone's favor if John stays put and hopefully gets a reasonable contract that allows us to retain our other young core as well. I haven't did the math yet but I'm thinking $120/$130 max for a 5yr deal. (Again I haven't done the math so don't take those numbers to heart).

With other teams possibly not being sure if he can push them over the edge maybe they offer him less and save us some money when we match. Overall thanks to the timing and the way this team was built there are pretty good odds that we hold on to JC and continue what we've started with the chemistry we've already built and the ultimate goal insight.

 

[RedDawg#8]

I think the teams that want John, aren't willing or in a position to offer him more than we would.

I think he obviously chooses us in a situation where the money is close.

The only way he leaves is if somebody knocks his socks off which as stated above isn't the likeliest scenario.