Preseason 2021 G1: Hawks @ Heat 10/04/2021, 7:30PM

[Final_quest]

If you want to say that there’s not enough games to make any permanent conclusions good or bad, fine.  It sounds like you want to take a position that has no teeth.  You can’t be wrong because it’s only hypothetical.  There’s no boldness in saying the entire past 3 years of draftees and G league players might be good and might not, but let’s wait until 3-4 years have gone by to make any judgements.  
 I’m saying that since he’s mostly played like an inconsistent head case up to this point, I am expecting that to continue.    
Even after a bad first half and good 3rd quarter last night, I’m still needing to see consistency before I change my mind.   

Positively, I will say that if Cam becomes a gamer I would be so proud of him.  To me that means he overcame years of failed expectations and the mental weight that comes with that.  Injuries didn’t help either.  Right now I still think he’s damaged goods mentally, with a game that just isn’t quite good enough to be considered for an all star game.   
I’m comfortable enough to say what I really think will happen, even if I’m totally wrong or it’s unpopular.  
It’s semantics to say we can’t make a permanent conclusion on someone’s entire career after three seasons of play.  Take permanent conclusion out of it, if you had to guess right now with the only evidence available, what do you project for Cam’s career?  Rotation player, starter, fringe all star,  all star, or superstar?  Something different?  I honestly believe you have a guess, so why not share on a fan message board?  

[AHF]

12 hours ago, Final_quest said:

If you want to say that there’s not enough games to make any permanent conclusions good or bad, fine.  It sounds like you want to take a position that has no teeth.  You can’t be wrong because it’s only hypothetical.  There’s no boldness in saying the entire past 3 years of draftees and G league players might be good and might not, but let’s wait until 3-4 years have gone by to make any judgements.  
 I’m saying that since he’s mostly played like an inconsistent head case up to this point, I am expecting that to continue.    
Even after a bad first half and good 3rd quarter last night, I’m still needing to see consistency before I change my mind.   

Positively, I will say that if Cam becomes a gamer I would be so proud of him.  To me that means he overcame years of failed expectations and the mental weight that comes with that.  Injuries didn’t help either.  Right now I still think he’s damaged goods mentally, with a game that just isn’t quite good enough to be considered for an all star game.   
I’m comfortable enough to say what I really think will happen, even if I’m totally wrong or it’s unpopular.  
It’s semantics to say we can’t make a permanent conclusion on someone’s entire career after three seasons of play.  Take permanent conclusion out of it, if you had to guess right now with the only evidence available, what do you project for Cam’s career?  Rotation player, starter, fringe all star,  all star, or superstar?  Something different?  I honestly believe you have a guess, so why not share on a fan message board?  

I think Cam's future is more volatile than most players and has the real potential fall anywhere between rotation player (he never gets his head screwed on offensively and so becomes a plus defender who runs hot and cold on offense) and All-Star (he matures into a consistent offensive game to combine with his status as a stud defender and earns his way to All-Star status).  If I'm guessing, his peak will be a plus starter because I do think it is likely he improves his offensive consistency significantly from his career to date but also recognize he has far enough to go that I don't think you would want to bet on him reaching his ceiling (or getting close to that hypothetical ceiling which would be Paul George-esque) on that end.

I do not put Cam in the same category as "the entire past 3 years of draftees and G league players [who] might be good and might not."  His upside is dramatically higher than the vast majority of those players which is why his peers predicted him to have a better career than a much higher floor player like Zion.  

What is exciting about Cam is that high upside wings are very rare and very difficult to acquire.  Teams lock them down for the long-term.  We have one in-house.  I put a lot of value on the opportunity we have to help him reach his ceiling and what that would mean for the team if he can move significantly down the road towards that ceiling.  I do not view that potential or place that kind of value on most  young players so the analogy to "anyone can be good or bad" doesn't cut it for me because in my view Cam's ceiling is unusually and exceptionally high.  

He does need to demonstrate that consistency so his last game (just like the first preseason game) does nothing to change my view for good or ill.  He started cold and looked near unplayable on offense and people jumped on him and then got hot and looked like a star and people celebrated.  That inconsistency is what we have seen from his career to date.  He needs to become a more dependable player like he was from January through March of 2020.  That was the most extended stretch of offensive play he has had to date (with his TS% ranging from .543% to .672% by month during that period).  He needs to minimize the number of months where that TS% is hanging around .500% and eliminate the months where he is sitting below .500%.  If he does that, he becomes an essential piece of the rotation and it opens up viable star potential.