Bogut or Paul?????

[Vafan]

Wretch, I totally agree with you. The NBA places so much emphasis on athletic ability that I question Bogut alot. I think he would be a solid player. Nothing more. Just put it this way. Would Bogut be able to defend someone like Stromile Swift, Tyson Chandler, or Daly? I point out these 3 guys because they are Free Agents and are athletic big man.

[Wretch]

Do you take Bowie over Jordan? Or even Hakeem over Jordan? What about Kandi over Bibby? Jon Koncak over Chris Mullen? Dampier over Nash? Camby over Ray Allen? Charles Smith over Mitch Richmond?

If it were an exact science and people knew what the outcome would be, the answer to each of these scenarios would be no. But these decisions were made...

I would say that few of these choices were made with the big vs. small logic, and based more on need, collegiate performance, or what a guy is going to do for a team. Koncack and Kandi for sure I know was all about size and collegiate performance - Kandi averaged 22pts and 11boards his senior season. Clippers had a tossup between him and Bibby and do you know what they did?

They went big over small.

(...)

Trade logic is, you don't trade a KNOWN big commodity for a KNOWN small commodity. The draft is highly unknown. Sometimes you take the BPA, sometimes you have to go for need. But boiling it down to "this player is bigger than the other one" is the surest way to make a mistake.

I wouldn't label what Bogut has faced out in the Mountains as "quality." I wouldn't say that Paul isn't a good scorer. Either way, if it's these two, I would take my chances on a guy who lead his team to victory night in and night out against the beasts of the ACC - and he did it from the perimeter.

[unknownjdb]

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I didn't see a guy going up strong and crashing the boards. I saw Bogut getting position, reaching out with his long arms, scrapping, and hopping a little to get boards -

using his length

. This as opposed to a PF/C who goes up and swallows rebounds with authority is what concerns me.

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This is why I like Frye rather than Bogut. He shows that movement, that drive. I reallyu feel that Frye will end up being better than Bogut in the long run. He may not be in his first year, having to add a few pounds and get roughed up a little, but down the line I see Frye as being fairly strong at the C position. He could end up like Chandler (better comparison than Amare?)...

[chillzatl]

[MoonKnight]

I tend to agree with your post. I have doubts about both Paul and Bogut. I will keep posting that Paul is Brevin Knight with a better jumper (and possibly worse D). Paul will be a very solid player in the pros for years but IMO will not be a superstar. He lacks athletic explosion (he gets his shot blocked too often for my liking). Paul and AI are not similar at all. Bogut also lacks athletic explosion. I have watched less of Bogut than Paul though I did record parts of two Utah games on my DVR. Bogut is a supernatural passer with a very high basketball IQ. He has great fundamentals in the post and gets good position on the boards. I do agree with another post here that Bogut rarely leaves the ground. I think he might have some difficulty reproducing his board numbers in the pros. He will also have difficulty defending quicker players in the post. Bogut will also be a very solid player in the pros for years but not a superstar. I am not convinced that either Paul or Bogut is better for us than D. Williams. He is the closest thing to J. Kidd I have seen. He is not quite as quick as Kidd but has a much better jumper. I think he will be a better Defender based on his tenacity and D fundamentals. JSmoove is already having visions of D. Williams pushing the ball to him on the break for a windmill dunk. D. Williams makes his teammates much better and is exacty what we need.

[Vafan]

I kinda disagree with your assesment of Deron Williams. He mostly resembles Andre Miller more than anyone. He are my comparisons Williams=Andre Miller, Felton=Steve Nash, Paul=Damon Stodamioure(spelling?). I think Felton would fit in great with the Hawks if we trade down to the 8-12 spots.

[Wretch]

It seems like every candidate has specific issues that prevent me from saying, "okay, THIS is who we should pick." Some people, I think are caught up in this "go big" philosophy but are missing some KEY isues. Mainly that this is a strategy for KNOWN commodities. But Bogut is no more proven in this draft than any of the other top prospects. People really want him to be but in my opinion he is not. They want Bogut to be the next Duncan/McHale/Sabonis...they want him to be a sure thing so they use the logic given sure things (or all things being equal) go with size.

I would agree with that...IF this were a draft and the choices were a Duncan or Kidd. I think it's a no brainer you go big there. I think that was the case with Yao and Jay Williams a few years back and Houston made the right decision by going big. But Both of those guys could have been consensus #1's. This year, I don't see anyone who has CLEARLY established himself above everyone else.

So, with that I like Paul and Williams for us.

With Paul, I see a more dynamic playmaker. A guy that whips those highlight passes that makes you say "oh my god!" He's quick and he can score. He led Wake to that incredible record against SERIOUS competition and to be able to do that from the PG position, to me, it says alot.

With Deron, I see the same things. Though, I see less of a quick and dynamic playmaker/scorer and more of a rock solid guy that just flat out smart player that knows how to get others involved. No issues with his height either. His quickness concerns me a little, but I've seen him get up and down the court and run the sh#t out of that break. Seen some EXCELLENT passes too.

In Bogut, I see a smaller Sabonis/Divac. I think Bogut could learn to be crafty like Vlade...but I don't know if he could perfect it like that. His passing is phenomenal though...and not just for a big guy. If he's commanding attention at the NBA level, man...I could just see him whiping passes out of the double over to a cutting Chilldress or leaping Smoove.

Still, I'm hung up on Paul and Williams. I can't say I really like one over the other. In Deron I see a Mark Jackson type guy who can always deliver. In Paul, I see Brevin Knight...but with more flair and better scoring. In both, I see guys who run the sh#t out of our offense and can get the ball to Smoove and Chill - making them even better.

[MoonKnight]

D. Williams is not exactly like Kidd. Kidd is more fluid in his play than Williams. Williams is slightly less quick than Kidd though neither guy is overly quick (I have been drilled by posters on this point before). Both guys make up for their lack of quickness with excellant ball handling and a high basketball IQ. IMO Williams is a better jump shooter than either Kidd or A. Miller. I think he has the potential to a good defender with his intense but smart play. I just think Williams does a better job of making his teammates better than Paul.

[Guest Walter]

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Bogut has been playing against guys 4-5 inches shorter and some even 20lbs lighter.

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Actually, you're wrong. As part of my statistical analysis of Bogut's defense I compiled the heights/weights of opposing centers east coast people would be unfamiliar with. See below.

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Here are the participants...LSU's Davis (6/9" 310), Kentucky's three-headed 7' monster, Oklahoma's Bookout (6'8", 256), Colorodo St.'s Matt Nelson (7'1", 270), Wyoming's Dunn (7', 255), Weber State's Allred (6'11", 270), and Arizona's Frye.

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Moreover, it's not like Bogut doesn't have experience playing against all heights and sizes. The guy is the most experienced baller in this draft.

...

Bogut's been "terrorizing" international leagues since he was 16. He's only 20 with tremendous upside remaining as evidenced by his improvement in only 1 year. Given bigs are usually the slowest to develop, his devekopment already is phenomenal.

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I didn't see a guy going up strong and crashing the boards. I saw Bogut getting position, reaching out with his long arms, scrapping, and hopping a little to get boards -

using his length

. This as opposed to a PF/C who goes up and swallows rebounds with authority is what concerns me.

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I don't get this. Style points, maybe? Bogut has the biggest, best hands of anyone in this draft, is a smart enough, big enough, skilled enough player to keep jack-rabbits from getting anywhere near the boards. He also defends a position on the court well, never getting too out of position. This guy will have no trouble rebounding in the NBA. NONE!

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Will he be able to use his length like he does at the college level against these guys? That is my question.

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Yes he will. He's seen more double and triple teams than a 40 year old porn star and his wing-span is longer than Yao Ming's. The guy can bang, be highly productive without scoring, and use his length on both ends of the court.

W

[Weez]

all I'll say about that is simply this: Brad Miller is (in my estimation) no more athletic than Bogut, and probably doesn't have the offensive skills either...yet he's been an all-star (in both conferences) and is a player I'd like to have...

[Weez]

can I just restate that I'm ecstatic to have Walter back on the board, providing in-depth analysis (whether you agree with him or not). thanksfor that.

[Guest Walter]

Thanks.

I too would love a player whose floor is Brad Miller. You don't even have to put him with a great Pf, just the right Pf and you've got an awesome front court.

W

[RAHMOR]

The more I think about it the more I pay attention to people without alot of athleticism. One player I think of is is Antoine Walker. After watching Toine this year and cringing at his lack of ability to get off the floor I was amazed at his ability to score inside and get rebounds down low. I believe Bogut has more lift than Antoine and will be a much smarter player and nearly weighs the same already. With that said it makes me a believer that Bogut will be able to get rebounds and defend in the NBA when you add his wingspan and his height to the equation. Put some weight on him and I see him holding his own in the post.

[Wretch]

I am not impressed with the level of competition Bogut has faced. With the exception of maybe Frye, who are these players? You act like he's gone up against the best bigmen in the country on a nightly basis. He's faced Arizona ONCE this year (in a loss) and Kentucky ONCE (in another loss). I didn't see the Arizona game, but his one game against Kentucky, I did not see him dominate the paint or command the boards. I do not see him as that kind of post player. What I see is a guy who gets decent position, scrambles, and comes up with the ball because he doesn't have much lift.

On the international level, there are many centers and PFs like Bogut, who aren't as athletic and spend far more time on the perimeter. Furthermore, the international game is not nearly as physical. At the college level, in his conference, Bogut is the biggest, tallest, and most talented bigman on the court. At the NBA level he will not be and he will face a more physical level of play, from more players at the same time, with a MUCH higher level of size/athleticism. That could dramatically affect his defense at this level and the way he boards.

Guys like Okafor, Howard, Garnett, Brand...they are going to body up with him and they are going to leap for that ball. Will Bogut be able to go up with them? That is my concern. Nothing from the international scene, his couple of games against AZ and KY, and all the stats from the games in that conference for one college season convinces me otherwise.

I like him. I don't think he's terrible by a longshot.

But I do not think he is the total package that you seem to think he is.

[Weez]

who are these 'refuted' best big men in the country? what 'big man' in college is going to go high in the draft?

Other than May, who's benefitted from his own exploits against duke and tremdous play down the stretch...who else would you have liked to see him play?

[BOShforRoy]

How about trading the pick to Toronto since toronto has the ninth and fifteenth pick this year and you might get both of those players with those picks.

[KBatPCSOM]

I never said that I don't believe in statistics. You can't put a stat on defense though, because there is too much about defense that only the subjective eye can determine.

Again, if you are going to use stats, then I want to see the stats of when Wake Forest played a zone defense versus playing man to man. I want to see how many times Paul was picked and the help man didn't step up. I want to see how many times Paul's man scored on a fast break.

I didn't need a stat to show me that Deron Williams played great defense. I saw his defense with my own eyes.

[Wretch]

I would have liked to have seen him in 2 or 3 seasons, 2 or 3 games a season (plus conf. tourneys) in the ACC, SEC, Big East...whatever... Yes, I'd have liked to see him against the Taft's, Villanueava's, May's, Morris's, and Okafor's (last season with Bogut being a Sophmore and all). Absolutely... But more importantly I would have liked to see this "new and improved" Bogut more often than 2 or 3 games against the best player(s) and teams in the country.

I like Bogut. I think he's a good player with great potential. But one "breakout" college season in that conference does not have me drawing comparisons of him to Duncan nor does it press me to the opinion that this guy has a total package.

The only thing that will change that is hearing what the experts have to say about him in the upcoming workouts and seeing how he does this summer after he's drafted.

[Weez]

ok, you can't bring Okafor into it really, as he's no longer in the L and this is about this year (though I see your point).

He wouldn't have 'played against' Charlie V.

Most of those guys you listed...didn't play against each other much, being in different conferences (most of them).

I see your point of view, and it's valid to a degree...guess it just depends on how much value you put into who he did play against (and from the size of it, I'd say bigger competition in terms of height, than most of those listed).

Also...that's what personal workouts are for; those will be upcoming.

[Wretch]

Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying ALL of these guys. I'm saying 2 or 3 seasons against guys LIKE them in more than 1 or 2 games. I would have liked to see him vs better teams for at least a couple of seasons.

Most important of all, we're talking a guy who could go #1 here. If you're burning the best pick in the draft on someone, questions about who he has played against and what he has done are VERY important.