When was the last time the 1st and 2nd worst teams

[CBAreject]

actually drafted 1st and 2nd. It's fine to speculate what we'll do with the #1 pick, because there's a 25% chance that we'll get the #1 pick.

However, these proposals of our #1 for Charlotte's #2/#13 are ludicrous. The probability of that scenario occuring is around 6%.

THERE IS A 95% CHANCE THAT ATLANTA AND CHARLOTTE WILL NOT DRAFT 1ST AND 2ND IN THAT ORDER. I think we can bank on it NOT HAPPENING.

[Lascar78]

well the more teams you consider, the less likely it is to happen. But it doesn't mean it won't happen. The bottom line is just hope for the best and don't count on anything.

We have the best odds of any team to get the #1 pick. We're in the best shape at this point in time. Anything beyond that is pure speculation.

Yes there is only a 6% probability of ATL-CHA getting 1 and 2, but it's also the most likely scenario.

[Lascar78]

Quote:

---

However, these proposals of our #1 for Charlotte's #2/#13 are ludicrous. The probability of that scenario occuring is around 6%.

---

While I agree with you, 6% is waaaaay higher than the odds of most diesel-type trades that get thrown around here coming true.

"Hey, let's just trade for KG guys."

"Hey, let's just sign Kobe this offseason."

"Let's just sign Hughes, Dalembert and Chandler this summer and we'll be fine"

...

[Nicholasp27]

haha

well done

[CBAreject]

Are you sure it's the most likely scenario? It's more likely Atlanta will pick 4th than 1st. There's a little over a 1/3 chance we pick 4th. There's an even greater chance that Charlotte picks 4th.

I think ATL-1/CHA-4 would be more likely than ATL-1/CHA-2.

ATL probs (based on last year)

1st = 25%

2nd = 21.55%

3rd = 17.85%

4th = 35.6%

[Lascar78]

Yes it would have to be.

We are the most likely to get #1. If that happens, Charlotte is the most likely to get #2. Yes we're more likely to get #4 than 1, but so are charlotte and NO. And every other lottery team is even more unlikelyto get the #1...

The most likely scenario is for everything to go in order. Which makes sense to help the worst teams

[Diesel]

That's very good from someone who rarely adds anything into any discussion?

[Nicholasp27]

it's not that simple

the SINGLE most likely scenario is Hawks/Charlotte 1/2...however, that scenario only has 5-6% chance, so MOST LIKELY it will NOT happen...it will only happen 1 in 20 times...therefore the probability of us even being able to discuss trading our 1 for charlotte's 2/13 is only 1/20...

it does NOT matter that this scenario is the most likely from the pool of scenarios, as it is only one scenario and only has a 5% chance...

[Nicholasp27]

actually, thinking about it, atlanta picking 4th and charlotte picking 5th may be even more probable...i'd have to do the math tho to see

they have 45% of the balls, so 55% chance that someone else is #1...then, depending on who won, 40-55% chance that someone else is #2..etc

so it's about like 3 coin flips...50% chance that the first ball selected is atl/char, 50% it's someone else...50% chance that the 2nd is atl/char if atl/char weren't picked, etc...so 1/8 chance...

that's 12.5%...now that isn't exact or anything, but u get a rough idea...however that is more than one scenario, because that involves a mixture of teams getting 1/2/3...but the most likely scenario for atl/char only is ending up 4/5...

[CBAreject]

I started working on the math. I lost my table from last year (GRRRRR!), so I have to do the excel sheet over again. I'll sepnd 10 minutes on it per day...

Like I said, 1/2 is not the most likely scenario. I'm almost positive. I'm almost sure 1/4 is more probable, and I think 4/5 would be more probable. There are 4!/2! + 1 ways that ATL and CHA can pick (the +1 is for the 4/5 scenario, because ATL can't pick 5th). That's only 13 scenarios. HOW CAN 6% BE THE MOST LIKELY IF there are only 13? Lascar?

1/2, 1/3, 1/4, 1/5

2/1, 2/3, 2/4, 2/5

3/1, 3/2, 3/4, 3/5

4/5

The math is kind of tricky...it's a conditional probability. For the 1/2, you can't just multiply the overall probability ATL picks first by the overall prob that CHA picks 2nd. You have to say, what's the probability CHA picks 2nd given that ATL picks first.

So, it's 25% * 200/750. Where there are 750 balls left after Atlanta has drawn 1st and CHA has 200 of those.

The 1/4 is more hairy, as you can imagine. Calculating anything past the 2nd pick takes some time. Best to make an Excel sheet. There's really not much to talk about on here. ...Sigh....

[Lascar78]

Well, we may be talking about different things.

What I am saying is that ATL-1 / CHA-2 is more likely than any other 2 teams picking 1,2. i.e. more likely than CHA-1/ATL-2, also more likely than LA-1/ATL-2. And that is indeed true.

What you are now talking about, is what is the most likely positions for ATL and CHA to pick. I'm not sure about that, the math gets hairier and I have better things to do. No team is "likely" to get the #1 pick, so no matter what two teams you pick, their most likely outcome will never include the #1 pick. So if that's what you meant, then yes 1-2 is not the most likely scenario. But that's if you're only focusing on atlanta and charlotte. But that's really arbitrary when you think about it.

The bottom line is if you consider all possible outcomes FOR ALL TEAMS, the most likely outcome is ATL-CHA-NO. If for some reason you focus in on the position of any one (or two) team(s), then their most likely spot will not be #1. The question is why focus on those 2 teams as opposed to the whole outcome?

[CBAreject]

You are correct then, ATL/CHA is the single most probable 1/2.

[Nicholasp27]

atl/char/nola is the most probable 1/2/3

4/5/6 is the most probable spot for atl/char/nola

however, there is over well over 50% chance that at least 1 of them will be in top 3, obviously...

nothing is even close to definite in the lottery, so we have to wait until 5/24 to find out what our REAL scenarios are

however, until then, we can have fun with assumptions:

a) we get #1...do we choose bogut or deron or marvin or paul or trade down?

b) we get #2...do we trade up, trade down, draft whom?

c) we get #3...

d) we get #4...

those are our ONLY possibilities, so that helps limit our assumptions

[Diesel]

We could get #1.

But I believe we will see the Jazz, Knicks, or Lakers move up into the top 3.

My question is this...

Why have a lottery in the first place??

For all of you who quickly say to "Stop teams from Tanking"...

Don't you think Teams Tank anyway?

Cleveland did.

San Antonio did.

Skip a lottery and follow the order prescribed. Worst team gets first pick.. And so on. That way, nobody gets screwed.

[Nicholasp27]

here we go again with the conspiracy theory...

[Diesel]

Try reading more than the title next time...

[TheRedStripes]

i have to agree about getting rid of the lottery, i think its absolutely ridiculous, the team with the worst record should get the first pick, im not just saying that because the hawks have the worst record this year, in times when the worst team didnt get it, i always felt a little sorry for them, its like adding insult to injury

[Diesel]

Yeah, I have watched teams get totally screwed by this lottery system..

For instance.

Boston had 2 lottery picks when Duncan came out... They got screwed.

Chicago has continually got screwed.

Golden State is used to bending over for the lottery.

My thinking is that there is really no need for a lottery. I don't know how football does it, but I think in the new CBA, we need to go back to the worst team get the top pick...

You shouldn't be penalized any more than neccessary for being bad. By the same token, a team like SA who had only a 7% chance of getting the top pick shouldn't be rewarded for being a little bad while other teams who were terrible that year get screwed...

I figure since teams are already tanking, just do away it the lottery..

[Nicholasp27]

i read more than the title...and i read into ur statements...

using ur statements, the title, and ur past postings, i deduced that u are trying to insinuate that the lottery is rigged...

so, like i said, bring on the conspiracy theories...tell us again about the 7 teams that will definitely be helped by stern...then tell us how the other 8 teams make sense because it'd be too obvious to rig it for one of those 7...

[Diesel]

Wrong deduction....

I was saying as somebody else noted.. That we ought to change the system which more often than not punishes the worst teams in it...

Just go to giving the worst team the top pick and end this silly lottery all together.