HAWKS FANS You GOT TO READ THIS!!!

[drzachary]

Quote:

---

It's already out in the court of public opinion... we will each be held accountable...

---

Furthermore, what is the accountability to which you're referring? Will one of you wash the other one's car? Or is it merely a bragging rights sort of thing?

[Lascar78]

I am trying to figure out the same thing.

[Diesel]

No.. The court of Mathematics here is a kangeroo court... filled with a lot of arrogance and ignorance.

I went back to the books and figure out how to do what I was asking... Mainly the probability of the scenerio...

What was the probability that PTL would be jumped by Toronto then Chicago, then Charlotte... Needless to say... Lascar was wrong.

Maybe he didn't understand what I was asking, but the Kangaroo court of HS is willing to believe that it's 37% likely that PTL would be jumped by Torotonto, then Chicago, then Charlotte... and it's only 25% chance that Toronto keeps the first pick... Thenn they must be fools.

So I dropped it. But I do know what the probability of the scenerio is now... no thanks to a Kangaroo court who would pass INSULTS instead of Information.

[Lascar78]

Quote:

---

Lascar was wrong.

---

I dare you to prove that for more laughs

[drzachary]

Quote:

---

No.. The court of Mathematics here is a kangeroo court... filled with a lot of arrogance and ignorance.

I went back to the books and figure out how to do what I was asking... Mainly the probability of the scenerio...

What was the probability that PTL would be jumped by Toronto then Chicago, then Charlotte... Needless to say... Lascar was wrong.

Maybe he didn't understand what I was asking, but the Kangaroo court of HS is willing to believe that it's 37% likely that PTL would be jumped by Torotonto, then Chicago, then Charlotte... and it's only 25% chance that Toronto keeps the first pick... Thenn they must be fools.

So I dropped it. But I do know what the probability of the scenerio is now... no thanks to a Kangaroo court who would pass INSULTS instead of Information.

---

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I really don't know what more to say. Lascar explained it beautifully. He should look into teaching.

I don't want to be rude here, but man... you're not right on the math thing.

[Johnnybravo4]

Its last week Dennis Rodman argument all over again...oh brother.

[AHF]

Quote:

---

No.. The court of Mathematics here is a kangeroo court... filled with a lot of arrogance and ignorance.

I went back to the books and figure out how to do what I was asking... Mainly the probability of the scenerio...

What was the probability that PTL would be jumped by Toronto then Chicago, then Charlotte... Needless to say... Lascar was wrong.

Maybe he didn't understand what I was asking, but the Kangaroo court of HS is willing to believe that it's 37% likely that PTL would be jumped by Torotonto, then Chicago, then Charlotte... and it's only 25% chance that Toronto keeps the first pick... Thenn they must be fools.

So I dropped it. But I do know what the probability of the scenerio is now... no thanks to a Kangaroo court who would pass INSULTS instead of Information.

---

I am not trying to be insulting here, but Lascar's math was perfect.

There may be a breakdown in communication. Your posts on math subjects are very unclear. For example, I am not sure what you mean when you say things like "and it's only 25% chance that Toronto keeps the first pick..." No one claimed Toronto had a 25% chance of landing the first pick. Only Portland had that high of a chance to land it. After Toronto landed the first pick, it had a 100% chance of keeping the pick. No one has claimed differently.

[exodus]

Not again. My cheeks are still tired from laughing at the last thread.

I must say I am impressed by your ability to be diplomatic to someone who is just begging for abuse.

My theory is that if someone invites abuse it is impolite not to accept.

[Diesel]

If you were looking for a explaination of predraft probability... yes, he did explain it beautiful..

That's not what I wanted.

I asked for the probability that Toronto, Chicago, and Charlotte would bypass PTL...

If you believe that that probability was 37 percent.. Then, I will just leave it there...

But recognize, you're saying that a team with 8.8% chance of getting 1st place.. a team with an 18.8% chance of getting second place, and a team with a 14.5% chance of getting third place all happened to give you a 37% chance of the whole scenerio happening... It's ridiculous.

[Diesel]

But my question was:

Quote:

---

just want to know the right way to do the probability of

the scenerio

taking place.

---

I know how to do the probabilities of each random event... That's all Lascar did but that's not what i was asking.

I was asking the probability that on that given night...

a team with 8.8% chance of getting 1st would get first..

AND

The team with a 18.8% chance of getting 2nd would get 2nd...

AND

The team without 14.5% chance of getting 3rd would get 3rd...

With the team with 250 combinations still in the mix...

That probability IS NOT 37%.

Which is what Lascar suggested..

Then he later suggested 100%...

[Lascar78]

Quote:

---

I asked for the probability that Toronto, Chicago, and Charlotte would bypass PTL...

If you believe that that probability was 37 percent.. Then, I will just leave it there...

---

AHAHAHA! The dunce is back for more!

You asked for a lot of things, including many things that didn't make sense. Let's see what I said the time you did ask that very question:

link

Diesel:

Quote:

---

What's the probability of the WHOLE scenerio?

I mean... PTL being Bypassed by Toronto,CHICAGO, and Charlotte.

---

Lascar:

Quote:

---

I don't know I deleted my spreadsheet but it's very low. With 30 teams to pick a top 3 from there are 24,360 possible combinations, each one having an average likelihood of .004%. Even the most likely scenarios have a very low percentage.

---

But hey, it's easier for a dunce to pretend that I said 37%!

I've seen you beat horses to death before, but never when the horse you were beating was your complete ineptitude and lack of understanding of basic statistics. This is great!

[Lascar78]

And just for extra clarity even though you'll never get it and everyone else understood this from the get go: There was a 35.8% chance that Portland would end up 4th in the lottery, which obviously is a different question.

[Diesel]

No Sh*t Genius... How long did it take you to read the graph??

Team Chances 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th

Blazers 250 .250 .215 .177 .358

Bulls (from Knicks) 199 .199 .188 .171 .319 .124

Bobcats 138 .138 .142 .145 .238 .290 .045

Hawks 137 .137 .142 .145 .085 .323 .156 .013

Raptors 88 .088 .096 .106 .262 .359 .084 .004

Timberwolves 53 .053 .060 .070 .440 .330 .045 .001

Celtics 53 .053 .060 .070 .573 .226 .018 .000

Rockets 23 .023 .027 .032 .725 .184 .009 .000

Warriors 22 .022 .026 .031 .797 .121 .004 .000

Sonics 11 .011 .013 .016 .870 .089 .002 .000

Magic 8 .008 .009 .012 .908 .063 .001 .000

Hornets 7 .007 .008 .010 .935 .039 .000

76ers 6 .006 .007 .009 .960 .018

Jazz 5 .005 .006 .007 .982

Has nothing to do with predraft odds...

It's all about the particular scenerio...

[Lascar78]

you just keep digging your own grave deeper, and deeper, and deeper, and deeper, and deeper...

you're the only one who thinks anyone would be dumb enough to think that those odds are the odds that Toronto, Chicago, and Charlotte would bypass PTL...

Don't try to project your ignorance onto others. I told you in the other thread that the average odds of any 1-2-3 combination is 0.004% and that even the most likely scenarios will be very small.

If you think you're right, I challenge you to make a poll that says who understands the lottery odds, with you or me as the answers. No more, no less. Everyone has read your public humiliation.

Very predictably, I know you will wimp out and fail to make such a thread because you know I am right, despite your persistent attempts to vaguely redefine what you are asking and what you are saying.

I guess American Beauty was right, "never underestimate the power of denial". This is pretty amazing really, I've never seen anything like it.

[AHF]

Quote:

---

It's all about the particular scenerio...

---

He gave you the exact odds that Portland would not:

(1) Get the first pick;

(2) Get the second pick given that Toronto got the first; and

(3) Get the third pick given that Toronto got the first and Chicago got the second.

That is the analysis that is relevant to see if Portland got screwed.

In contrast, the odds you are proposing to calculate are almost meaningless. Why in the world would you care about the odds of the lottery going in exactly the Toronto, Chicago, Charlotte order?

The odds of the lottery going in the most likely possible order of Portland, Chicago, Charlotte is only 1.87%. The possibility of any exact combination happening is less than one in 50 so who cares?

[Diesel]

Quote:

---

u're the only one who thinks anyone would be dumbe enough to think that those odds are the odds that Toronto, Chicago, and Charlotte would bypass PTL..

---

That's what I asked for...

Lascar, I don't think you're any smarter because you can go to wikipedia and read a graph and come back and quote it.

Moreover, it doesn't make you right because you can insult me without provokation...

What I asked for yesterday (maybe you misunderstood me) was the probability of the scenerio...

If it were a misunderstanding between you and me, then you definitely owe me an apology... because you insulted me unprovoked over a misunderstanding. BUT when I continously used the word SCENERIO.. I thought you knew what I meant...

Now, you can try to save face and go back on your attack.

It's officially dropped be me... I know how to get what I want and I don't have to be insulted to get it.. UNDERSTAND....

[Lascar78]

For the record I just did the math and the odds of tor-chi-cha going 1-2-3 was 0.3%, well above the odds of the average scenario obviously as it had 2 of the top 3 teams. I'm sure you'll be using this stat in the wrong way many many times over the next few days.

[Diesel]

Yeah... but that's not the probability of the whole scenerio..

Going from pick to pick giving PTL's chances does not tell me the probability that PTL would be bypassed by Toronto, Charlotte, and Chicago.

Yes... PTL has a 25% chance.

Yes... PTL had a 27.14% chance to get the 2nd pick.

Yes PTL had a 30 something percent chance to get the 3rd pick.

However that's just the probability of each event.

I wanted the probability of the whole scenerio...happening the way that it happened...

No PREDRAFT odds will tell you that.

And the answer is not 35.8%...

That's ridiculous.

[Diesel]

That's what I got as well.

And that's all I wanted... from the beginning..

[AHF]

Quote:

---

That's what I got as well.

And that's all I wanted... from the beginning..

---

Why?

I am stumped here.

The range of probabilities for any particular outcome is useless in analyzing whether Portland got screwed.

The range of probability of a particular sequence of teams 1-3 goes from 1.87% to .00021%.

What significance do those numbers have?