For those who wanted Pryz

[CBAreject]

First of all, let me say I wanted Przybilla, too. However, I would not have signed him for what he commanded. I think our mistake was in letting him walk the first time. No need to try to right that wrong by paying him what he wanted.

Przybilla signed for 5 years at 32 million dollars. I'm sure some of you think we could've had him for the same price, but I think you're wrong. I think we had to beat out Portland's offer by a good margin to land him. Przybilla enjoyed playing in Portland, and he wanted to stay there. Sure, he might've left for a comparable offer to play for a contender, but why would he leave the place he's settled to play for the league's laughing stock? He's not even from the south. He has no connections here.

I believe that we had to offer something like 42 over 6 to get him to nibble. OK, maybe some of you would jump at that, but I don't see why. He may be decent value, even at that price, but not for a team that's still building. If we tie up that kind of capital in Przybilla, we'd be paralyzed next off-season (and all subsequent in the forseable future). Sure, we'd have a little better center than Lo Wright, but only at the price of crippling our flexibility. If we wanted to make a play for Hinrich or Kaman (who is legit), it would be impossible. We could've chosen to pay him instead of Speedy, but I would rather take my chances with a true PG and a little lesser of a center.

The question you have to ask yourselves, then, is "if we signed Pryz, would we be complete?" If not, we're better suited saving a little room so that we can make a big deal in the future. If we can finish close to .500 and be in position to offer a 10 million deal or SNT for more, we're better off.

[mrhonline]

Replacement value.

Jaywalker, if you're out there can you PUH-LEASE lecture us on that again?

[CBAreject]

I assume you're agreeing with me here. I think this is a classic case of replacement value at work. However, most people don't seem to understand what that means on this forum. It's like having an argument over probability with Diesel.

Actually, I would call it "value over replacement player", of which Pryz has very little. You can't tie up all your cap space long-term on average quality players.

[exodus]

First of all the Hawks couldn't offer Prz a 6 year deal. Nobody could.

The bottom line is that the Hawks could not make him an offer at all since they were tied up with Al trying to get a mid-1st rounder.

And considering how many scorers the Hawks have it makes perfect sense to get a center whose specialty is defense.

[jezmund]

I can only imagine that Pryzbilla was never an option for us. I would have liked us to go after Jackie Butler as well but I have a feeling that we didn't know our situation at that time. A lot has changed in the last few weeks.

[mrhonline]

http://hawks.realgm.com/articles/166/20020...lacement_value/

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If you could buy a Coke for a dollar or a Pepsi for five dollars, which would you purchase?

If you were paying 60 dollars a month for internet access, then found a similar plan for 40 a month, would you still pay the 60?

Understanding that basic concept is the same as understanding the theory of replacement value talent in pro sports.

Baseball and its franchises have begun to understand, and in some cases, embraced the theory, which embodies the belief of

not abusing precious financial resources to assets that can be obtained for lesser funds.

Football has become even more rabid in this regard due to its rather inflexible salary cap, leaving teams swapping out parts of even championship football teams annually to avoid potentially crippling financial decisions.

The NBA, however, has been much slower to comprehend the paradigm of replacement value, and how it can effect a payroll and roster long term, and it has a plethora of bad contracts to show for it.

Before the shortened 1998-1999 season, the Atlanta Hawks were faced with negotiating with then starting power forward Alan Henderson. Henderson was the starting power forward on a 50 win team, and was considered to be an important part of a playoff team.

The Hawks could have looked at the skill set of Henderson and

determined that, though he was productive, there was little to indicate stardom, or they could even have compared his skill set to the available talent in the market or how much it differed from other players in the league. They could have wondered how much difference having Henderson would be instead of letting him go and starting Grant Long in his place.

But, since he was the starting power forward on a playoff team, and a young player at that, he was paid what most starting power forwards were being paid at the time,

a 6 year/42 million dollar deal.

Now, the Hawks realize the limitations of Henderson’s game, and that he was more of a complementary piece of that playoff team. And even though Henderson has played well in his new role off the Hawks bench, he is considered to be overpaid, especially when compared to other players with his skill set and role.

The Hawks aren’t the only team to indulge in overspending in these areas. Many teams still waste money and cap space on players that could be replaced for cheaper and similarly effective players.

There was the Nuggets signing of defensive specialist shooting guard Tariq Abdul-Wahad to a 7 yr/43 million dollar deal. The Nuggets significantly overspent for a skill set that was available in other places for considerably less money and cap commitment (See Raja Bell, Ira Newble). All it cost to get rid of that contract was to give up their 1998 first rounder, Raef LaFrentz.

The Minnesota Timberwolves have done some significant damage to themselves in the wake of the Joe Smith fiasco. Losing four draft picks is bad enough, but paying him 34 million over six years when they got as good as or even better work out of Gary Trent (1 year, 600K) is even more painful.

The same can be said of the Seattle Supersonics, who spent a boatload of cash on Calvin Booth (6 years/42 million) and got more production out of 500K find Jerome James.

And finally (although we could go on all over the NBA), look at the Toronto Raptors, who did a fine job of keeping their own free agents over the offseason, signing Alvin Williams and Jerome Williams to long term deals and then using their exception to land Hakeem Olajuwon.

This offseason, however, they stand to lose a key part of their rotation, Keon Clark, who possesses above replacement level talent. Clark is a restricted free agent who is likely to get paid more than Toronto wants to spend, but would that be true if the Raptors hadn’t given out big money to Michael Stewart (6 years, 24 million)?

A failure to understand that you can get a similar skill set for bargain prices that results in losing assets that are actually worth paying a premium for is no way to build a winner.

The Lakers and Celtics are not bound by any significantly burdensome contracts, and neither are the Magic (except for Grant Hill, and we’ll see there), leaving them plenty flexible to add to their premium core (Shaq/Kobe, McGrady/Hill, Pierce/Walker).

The Hawks have seemed to be one of the teams changing their approach. Last season, when faced with wanting to add some help, they signed Jacque Vaughn, Emanual Davis, Ira Newble, and Leon Smith to minimum contracts. Vaughn and Newble were massive contributors, and Smith is a big man with potential.

The contributions of Vaughn compared more than favorably to the efforts of Avery Johnson, a player of similar skill set as Vaughn, but was given a 3 yr, 15 million dollar deal from the Nuggets in the same offseason.

Now that Jacque Vaughn is a free agent again, the Hawks should not rush to match the Nuggets generosity. They should understand that Vaughn’s skill set was available before, and it will likely be there again, for the minimum, somewhere. And if it’s not Vaughn himself, then it’s up to them to scour the free agent and international ranks to find that skill set again.

Just because someone like Jamie Feick pulls down a bundle of boards, or Jason Williams (Memphis) passes behind his back, or Jahidi White really fills out a uniform, doesn’t mean you have to pay them with long term contracts.

The luxury tax and salary cap are forcing teams come to grips with these realities, and the NBA has become a league, like the NFL, that will pay its superstars the lion share of the cap space, leaving a lot of players along the same, considerably smaller salary range.

It’s the teams that use their main cap resources on players that are above replacement level, and

refuse to tie themselves up with mediocre talent signed to long term contracts

that are going to be the teams that will be successful in building, adding to, and keeping a winning franchise.

It sounds obvious, but when you look at the payrolls and rosters for the majority of franchises, you see there are still many lessons to be learned. And

some teams, like the Knicks, are about to learn the very hard way.

So when your team is preparing for this offseason’s moves,

cross your fingers and hope that your management team understands the value of replacement value,

or else instead of the next Peja Stojakovic, you could have the next Maurice Taylor.

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For all the criticisms of Billy Knight, he understands the concept of replacement value.

[mrhonline]

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I assume you're agreeing with me here.

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Yes, sorry. I meant to say "well said," but got carried away.

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First of all the Hawks couldn't offer Prz a 6 year deal. Nobody could.

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Which doesn't help your argument. The Hawks would likely have had to offer $7-8M per season to get an average NBA center. They wisely passed.

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The bottom line is that the Hawks could not make him an offer at all since they were tied up with Al trying to get a mid-1st rounder.

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They could make an offer, he simply would have had to wait until the S&T was complete.

[Guest]

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I believe that we had to offer something like 42 over 6 to get him to nibble.

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We can't offer him 6 years unless we did a SNT. But just for shits and giggles, that contract would look a little like this:

6

6.63

7.26

7.89

8.52

9.15

Total - 45.45

That definitely doesn't cripple us at all. That is actually starting at less than what we gave Speedy.

Nice effort, but signing Prz wouldn't cripple us either, ESPECIALLY if we didn't sign Speedy (we would actually have more space if we did you Prz contract instead of Speedy). I am guessing we would have about 7 mil in cap space next year if we did the Speedy and Prz deals. You have to realize, the cap is going to go up next year which will help us. And I also doubt Kaman or Hinrich get anywhere close to the Max unless someone is drunk at the time of offering that.

[CBAreject]

OK, fair enough, but it doesn't change my point. We had to offer a bigger deal than Portland did.

I like Pryz, and I'm not saying we couldn't have used him...just not for the price. I'd like to have his blocks, too, but my point is, we'd be very close to capping ourselves out if we picked him up. It's one thing to cap yourself out in acquiring a young stud center (maybe even Kaman), but not to get a guy who isn't much better than average.

[mrhonline]

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but not to get a guy who isn't much better than average.

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CBA, the problem is that exodus thinks the gap between Wright and Przybilla is much more significant than we do.

[CBAreject]

Kaman and Hinrich will both get huge deals. I hope they don't get max deals, because that will be sick. Kaman will get 10 mil per. I'm not saying we should pay it, but he will get it if he puts up just what I expect next year (14/10). If he exceeds my expectations, he will get a max deal.

If Przybilla gets nearly 7 mil per year to resign with his team, you better believe a younger and substantially better restricted FA center will get much more to change teams. 7 million in cap space just isn't that valuable to a team like the Hawks.

[exodus]

Offensively Wright is better. Defensively Prz is waaaayyy better and interior D is the Hawks biggest need.

For the Hawks to be title contenders they are going to have to deal with guys like Wade, Lebron and Howard. Who would you rather have protecting the basket, Lo or Prz?

A Lo/Zaza center combo will be no deterrant to those guys.

[mrhonline]

CBA, you are right.

But, I will go one step further and guarantee that someone will offer either Hinrich or Kaman the max. Kirk's a two-way player, a good team guy, can play both guard spots, etc. Kaman is a hard-working, do-everything center who would fill the center void on a team for many years.

Hinrich is similar to JJ in that he'll get 65+, and Kaman should get at least Nene money.

[CBAreject]

Yes. Either way, 7 mil of cap space (which is only speculative) won't get us a starter. It's not much better than having the exception.

[Sothron]

I'm hoping the Hawks offer either Hinrich or Kaman a max deal if that's what it takes to bring them here.

[Guest]

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Yes. Either way, 7 mil of cap space (which is only speculative) won't get us a starter. It's not much better than having the exception.

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Yeah, we didn't get Speedy for less than $7 mil. You can get players for that much easily, plus in this scenario I would rather NOT have signed Speedy. I just don't know what the fasination is with a a guard who plays 60 games a season.

And you don't get the exception, thats all I will say about that. I get headaches now everytime someone says something about the TPE.

[mrhonline]

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I'm hoping the Hawks offer either Hinrich or Kaman a max deal if that's what it takes to bring them here.

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If Speedy's deal is in fact frontloaded, he should be HIGHLY tradeable if Hinrich is acquired.

(Not to mention it would really hurt the Bulls).

[exodus]

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I'm hoping the Hawks offer either Hinrich or Kaman a max deal if that's what it takes to bring them here.

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The fact that we are discussing next year's free agent moves just shows how much of a disappointment this years moves have been.

[mrhonline]

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The fact that we are discussing next year's free agent moves just shows how much of a disappointment this years moves have been.

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Considering that the people discussing them aren't disappointed in this year's offseason, one would assume that's debatable.

For one, there wasn't a player like Hinrich available in this year's free agency. (And there's a good chance he signs an extension by October, so 2007 may end up even worse off).

Second, the fact that the Hawks addressed several needs (e.g., post presence, depth at the 4/5, veteran leadership, a PG, perhaps an 07' first rounder) this offseason without jeopardizing next year's cap space is commendable.

I would have loved for the Hawks to acquire Dwight Howard to fill the center spot, but apparently he's untradeable.

[CBAreject]

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And you don't get the exception, thats all I will say about that.

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First of all, that's not even a sentence. If you're going to be pompous and arrogant, you could at least be coherent.

Second, you really don't know what I do or don't understand. Nonetheless, I'm humble enough to admit that I don't understand everything about anything. How about you? I assume you think I'm refering to Indiana's trade exception, but I'm clearly talking about the mid-level exception. 7 million in cap space isn't much more than 5 million in the MLE, which you can use to sign a Speedy-sized deal.

Finally, you completely contradict yourself on the topic of Speedy's signing. Let me rehash it for you. First, I say you can't get a starter for 7 mil. Your rebuttal is that we got Speedy for less than that (which is true, so it's a fair point..even though Speedy quality players are not what I'm talking about when I say "starter"). Then, you contradict your own point by implying that Speedy isn't a starting-quality player in the first place.

The point here is that now that we have Speedy, we have a decent player at every position, so we can't go get a starter for 7 mil. I can't think of any starting player we could acquire next year who would be an upgrade for 7 mil. We need more cap space than that unless we are just looking to add role-players.