bigtime Hollinger Hawks hate

[gsuteke]

read the transcript. this dude lives in Atlanta! i guess like half the city his personal allegiances lie elsewhere

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Chat with John Hollinger

Welcome to The Show! On Tuesday, NBA columnist John Hollinger will stop by to talk about his new book and the upcoming season.

Hollinger evaluated and rated every player in the NBA. He also combined those rankings to rate every team in the NBA. So check it out and then join his chat.

Send your questions now and join John in The Show on Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET.

Hollinger archives: Columns | Chats

John Hollinger: (4:03 PM ET ) Greetings everyone. As most of you have already noticed, all my player profiles and projections for 2006-07 are now up on the site, as well as the team comments from a couple weeks ago -- for those of you who miss the old Pro Basketball Forecast, this is basically the line version of that book.

John Hollinger: (4:03 PM ET ) With that said, there's plenty to discuss so let's get started.

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Jack: (Boston,MA): I noticed that you ranked the celtics big men(Jefferson, Perkins, and Gomes) much higher than I would have expected. It is the general concensus here that they must step up this year or Danny Ainge's job may be in jeopardy, what is your take on the state of the celtics?

John Hollinger: (4:05 PM ET ) I'm much more bullish on the Celtics than most people, primarily because I think Perkins and Jefferson are primed to turn the corner this year. If I'm wrong, then it could be a long year, because the other bigs aren't impressive.

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Matt (Portland, OR): Thoughts on Troy Murphy playing center this year? Will it play to the Warriors' favor, matchup-wise, or will it just make them even more horrible defensively?

John Hollinger: (4:06 PM ET ) I think it's going to make them incredibly bad defensively, yes. Over the course of a season a Dunleavy-Murphy frontcourt would block what, like four shots?

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Devon (Cleveland, OH): I'm surprised the Cavs let Flip Murray get away. He signed with Detroit for not that much per year. Why did the Cavs not even try to go after him, instead signing David Wesley and being stuck with Damon Jones??

John Hollinger: (4:06 PM ET ) I don't think Flip fit what they're doing all that well actually. He's a slasher and what the team really needs are spot-up shooters, so Wesley and Shannon Brown should be a better fit. BTW, I think Damon Jones could havae a bounce-back year.

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Rob (Winter Springs, FL): Hey John. I am a Magic fan, and having Dwight Howard as low as the 15th best forward seems crazy. He is behind Drew Gooden and Frye?

John Hollinger: (4:08 PM ET ) I believe I discussed this in Howard's player comment, but with the teenagers the projected stats are much less reliable because they're based on only a couple of comparabale players. There just have been that many 19-year-old NBA power forwards to base his projection off of. Same goes for Josh Smith, by the way.

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Jeremy Vineland NJ: I do not see how you can rate Chris Paul higher than Allen Iverson, I understand he had a spectacular rookie season but to call him better than AI so soon, a bit crazy.

John Hollinger: (4:09 PM ET ) I'm getting a lot of question along the lines of "how do you rate so-and-so ahead of so-and-so", so I think it's time to backtrack here.

John Hollinger: (4:10 PM ET ) What you're seeing in the ratings are the projection for his Player Efficiency Rating for this season. PER, as I've discussed in here many teams, is a summary of a player's per-minute statistical effectiveness, but that still leaves some things out -- defense, durability, etc.

John Hollinger: (4:11 PM ET ) A lot of people are looking at this like I'm saying Player X is better than Player Y, which isn't necessarily the case. That said, in the particular example you cited, it would not shock me at all if Paul outperformed Iverson this year.

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Luke (St. Paul, MN): Shouldn't it also be noted that PER is primarily an offensive stat, and D. Howard's biggest impact may come on defense?

John Hollinger: (4:12 PM ET ) It may in the future, but it sure as heck doesn't now -- DH still has some work to do at that end.

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MC Welk (SLC): How can you project for Vassilis Spanoulis, as he has never played in the league. Also, why is Udrih rated so highly?

John Hollinger: (4:14 PM ET ) The projections for Spanoulis, Bargnani and a few other players are based off their numbers from the Euroleague last season. I've developed a very reliable system for converting Euroleague production to NBA production, and their projections follow from those conversions.

As for Udrih, he played really well in his limited minutes last season, so I have high hopes for him this year. If he ever gets healthy, that is -- he's got a hammy slowing him right now.

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Cole(Ut): Baesd on your ratings, can the Jazz be a playoff team, and why so low on Derron Williams?I'm not like the rest of the State and think he played like an all star in the second half, but I think he'll be more effective than 27th overall PG.

John Hollinger: (4:16 PM ET ) Jazz are a playoff team in my book. As for Williams, yes he played great in the second half last year. He also shot 52% on 3-pointers after the break, which I'm going to go out on a limb and say he won't do for a full season. If you look at the whole season, and I'm sorry but you have to, he's behind a lot of other players.

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Henry (NY): While I liked Jackie Butler last year, is he really comparable to Shawn Kemp at this point in his career? How do you see him contributing this year once he gets healthy?

John Hollinger: (4:19 PM ET ) He's a talented, offense-minded 6-10 guy with a weight problem who didn't go to college. Sounds a lot like Shawn Kemp to me. I realize the comparison isn't perfect, but no comparison between players ever is. Unless they're both named "Van Arsdale" that is.

As for Butler's immediate prospects, as I mentioned from France the Spurs really want him to get more in tune with that they're asking of him on D before he's going to play a lot of minutes. He probably won't play much in the early part of the year, and Fabricio Oberto may end up starting.

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Chad, Chicago: Isn't the PER stat kind of useless if it doesn't take into account defense, durability, etc. (Can you tell I've bought into Scott Skiles).

John Hollinger: (4:19 PM ET ) No. It sums up the "measurables" so you can move on the unmeasurables with a firmer idea of where everybody stands.

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blue ridge summit, Pa: How many regular season games will the Wizards win this year? I think some people are underating them this year. Over under for wins on betting sites I have seen is 39.5 wins, I think they pull down 45 plus wins this year.

John Hollinger: (4:20 PM ET ) I actually might take the under on that, but I seem to be more pessimistic on Washington than most folks.

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Jeremy Phoenix AZ: John, how do you see Amare doing this year? If he is 100 percent by playoff time, do you like the Suns chances of winning it all?

John Hollinger: (4:22 PM ET ) I think Amare's season will go in fits and starts -- he'll look good for a few games, then his knee will feel weird and he'll throw up a 3-for-12 or something. That's my guess anyway. But if he's 100% by April, I think Phoenix becomes the favorite.

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Patrick (St. Petersburg, FL): Shawn Kemp had a weight problem when he was young?

John Hollinger: (4:23 PM ET ) That's kind of what I meant when I said the comparison isn't perfect. Also, Jackie doesn't have quite the same hops, etc.

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mark, philippines: do you think tony parker's jumpshot has improved enough to where defense's would respect it and not just clog the lanes?

John Hollinger: (4:24 PM ET ) His J looked a little smoother in France, but if I'm guarding him I still make him prove it to me from out there before I let him blow by me for lay-ups.

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Andrew (Chicago, IL): How much do you like Kirk Hinrich,and do you think the Bulls will be able to go all the way and win the NBA finals?

John Hollinger: (4:25 PM ET ) I like him as far as what he is -- a solid guard at either spot who defends well, but he's not an All-Star or anything. As for Chicago, I expect them to be the league's No. 1 defensive team, but I don't think they'll score enough to win the East.

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casey tulsa oklahoma: when your own ratings came out...what player(s) suprised you being so high, and which player(s) seemed underrated? Based on your own opinion...

John Hollinger: (4:26 PM ET ) Andrew Bogut's projection was much more optimistic than I would have guessed, as was Jackie Butler's. On the surprised-how-low front, I would say Ron Artest and Lamar Odom.

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Grapevine, Tx: The mavericks kept their nba finals team pretty much the same. I am concerned with the age of jerry stackhouse. Do you see devan george stepping up as that 7th guy or who do you think can?

John Hollinger: (4:28 PM ET ) I think they relied on Stackhouse WAY too much last year. I'd look at Anthony Johnson and Maurice Ager as guys who could help fill those shoes long before I turned to George -- he's probably only gonna play 5-10 minutes a night.

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Buck - Hartford: You've got to explain Chuck Hayes being so high!

John Hollinger: (4:29 PM ET ) He played great last year -- he's only 6-6 but had one of the best Rebound Rates in the league. Until we get more data, that's what I have to go on right now. So yes, I'm suspicious that he'll really do that well (as I believe I wrote in his player comment), but until we have more info that's where he goes.

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BIG CJ, Shoreline: How much impact will Chris Wilcox have on the Sonics being a playoff team? I know they finished up last year on an impoved note.....

John Hollinger: (4:30 PM ET ) The Sonics will only make the playoffs if they decided to guard people. Wilcox is one of the people in most dire need of improvement on that front.

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Dave (Midland Park, NJ): If Chuck Hayes sat next to you on a cross-country flight, would you recognize him?

John Hollinger: (4:30 PM ET ) That depends. Would have a name-tag on? At the very least, a Kentucky letterman's jacket with "Chuck" in script on the front?

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andy (albany, ny): Is carmello finally going to get some love this year? Everyone knows he was an all-star snub last year.

John Hollinger: (4:31 PM ET ) I would be very surprised if 'Melo didn't make the trip to Vegas this February, yes.

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Tom (Cleveland): Finish this sentence: Besides LeBron James, the player that is most important to the Cavaliers is __________?

John Hollinger: (4:32 PM ET ) Larry Hughes. If he plays 60 games they win the East.

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kevin (miami,fl): can chuck hayes score on bruce bowen one on one?

John Hollinger: (4:33 PM ET ) No. He rated so high because of his insane rebound rate.

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Carlos (Orlando, Florida: Who do you think has the best chance to make a sudden impact from this year's rookie class?

John Hollinger: (4:33 PM ET ) Well, Brandon Roy and Randy Foye look like they'll get the most PT, so they're the two obvious choices. I'm a big Ronnie Brewer fan too.

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Brett (Coral Springs, FL): Do you think the Nets bench in strong enough this year?

John Hollinger: (4:34 PM ET ) Not even close, especially with the injury to House. They need Williams, Boone, and Wright to make some big contributions, and I don't think that crew can pull it off.

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Matt,MPLS : Vin Baker isn't really going to make the wolves is he? I mean, at least Paul Shirley can move without the ball and make a pass to an open teammate...

John Hollinger: (4:36 PM ET ) Maybe they like keeping Vin around because then, in comparison, it seems like Mark Blount is playing hard. Other than that I have no explanation.

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Ben (Denver): Isn't boone out until January?

John Hollinger: (4:36 PM ET ) yes, shoulda mentioned that, although there' some hope that he'll return sooner than that. So Mile Ilic also has to step up. Good luck with that.

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Saint Louis, MO: Do the Mavs chances of winning the finals rely on the (hopeful) improvement made by howard and harris?

John Hollinger: (4:37 PM ET ) To a large extent, yes, especially with Harris. If he's healthy and takes another step up he adds another dimension to what has become a fairly slow team otherwise.

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Jeremy (Atlanta): Joe Johnson may be overpaid, but that is what the Hawks had to do to land player of his calliber and his potential. Look for the Hawks to go .500

John Hollinger: (4:38 PM ET ) The Hawks won't go .500 unless they switch to the SEC. They won 26 last year and gave away their second-best player for nothing.

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Greg (Los Angeles): How is Ike Diogu going to do this year?

John Hollinger: (4:39 PM ET ) Back when Monty was still the coach, I thought Diogu might have a chance to start at PF if they traded Murphy and made a good stealth breakout candidate. But I'm not sure what role there is for him in Nelly's system. Could be a tough year for him.

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Steve S (Dallas, TX): kind of a slap in the face to the SEC

John Hollinger: (4:39 PM ET ) Ba-dump-CHAH!

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jack (pasadena, tx): the mavericks a "fairly slow team"???

John Hollinger: (4:40 PM ET ) Mavs played at one of the league's slowest paces last year. In the offseason they added Devean George, Austin Croshere and Anthony Johnson. So yes, they're major plodders at this point ... unless Harris starts.

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Matt Castaldi: I don't have time to read all your player rankings. I'm busy. Can you just summarize them here?

John Hollinger: (4:42 PM ET ) Sure. I'm an idiot because I have [player 1] ranked ahead of [player 2] even though [player 1] has crazy skills and is ready to take the league by storm, and why do I have to be such a hater.

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James (Springfield): You know what your middle name is? Its PISTON HATER

John Hollinger: (4:43 PM ET ) Actually, all they had room for on my birth certificate was "PISTON HA"

John Hollinger: (4:45 PM ET ) Got a lot of emails about my team comment in the Pistons, because I said they had a good chance of dropping 20 games in the standings. Obviously any prediciton for the coming season depends on a huge number of factors, but if you accept the fact that a) they're likely to have a normal number of injuries, rather than the zero of last season, b) they made a major downgrade at center, and c) they're best player isnt likely to play quite as well again this year based on the Fluke Rule, which has a 90% success rate, then it's hard to project Detroit winning more than in the mid-40s.

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Thaddeus(Cape Cod, MA): I don't understand how you some of the PER's moved up or down so drastically. Like Butler, Howard, Jefferson, etc. . . Are these all based on other players or is there some subjectivity?

John Hollinger: (4:46 PM ET ) There is zero subjectivity in the projections -- it's built entirely off of similarity scores with other players of the same age, and then projecting future results based on what happend to those other similar players.

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Trieu (Cambridge, MA): Just wanted to thank you for the team and player profiles! There was almost no NBA analysis to read over the last few months. Now I can binge.

John Hollinger: (4:47 PM ET ) Flattery will get your everywhere. Remember to look up from the monitor every 10 minutes or so and refresh your eyes.

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Jay (atalnta,ga): With this wealth of info online, I assume you won't be publishing Pro Basketball Forecast 2006?

John Hollinger: (4:48 PM ET ) If it wasn't clear already, no -- the book has basically morphed into an online entity, which made a lot more sense than having to write something in July that was long-since outdate by the time it hit the shelves.

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BiLLY: John, Do you seriously believe Marion to be ranked beyond 15th...In my eyes i see him to be 3rd or even second pick in a fantasy draft after lebron...why do you think differently ?

John Hollinger: (4:49 PM ET ) Just to be clear, these aren't fantasy rankings and should not be used as such.

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Travis, Canada: John, first chat of the season, give us your thoughts on all the major awards player and team wise?

John Hollinger: (4:50 PM ET ) Patience, Travis. We have plenty of time to give all our predicitons on that stuff.

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Widmer (Portland, OR): Bron Bron = MVP?

John Hollinger: (4:51 PM ET ) I think so. And on a happy note, I discovered this weekend that the new Whole Foods in Atlanta stocks Widmder Hefeweizen (and Brideport IPA to boot), meaning I no longer have to fly cross country just to taste some real beer.

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Michael (Houston, Tx): Do the Rockets have a chance to have homecourt in the first round this year? Tmac says his back is 100%!

John Hollinger: (4:52 PM ET ) I'll believe that from TMac when he plays out a full schedule, but if he can just stick around for 60-65 games then I think the Rockets are a top four team, yes.

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Richard (Irvine, CA): John: Since you're book used to come out in mid-October, are you saying this stuff is already outdated since it hits the computer screens in October and could have easily been written in June?

John Hollinger: (4:53 PM ET ) No, I'm saying I used to have to write stuff like "Bonzi Wells is still unsigned" instead of talking about his move to the Rockets, so I can provide a lot more analysis about the offseason.

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Geo (Miami, Fl): How in the hell do you and Marc Stein have a voice in sports? I can talk out of my rear end also, and I don't have a job with ESPN.

John Hollinger: (4:54 PM ET ) If you can do what you claim, I would think the circus would be a more appropriate employer.

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Jethro, Los Angeles: I believe the Lakers will be top 5 in the west.

John Hollinger: (4:55 PM ET ) Wouldn't shock me at all, to be honest. I think they overpaid for V-Rad but he'll help the bench, and don't overlook Shammond Williams. Biggest key, obviously, is Kobe's return from surgery.

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Mase(Chi-Town,Illinois: Two questions for you John.#1-Can the Bulls take the Central Division from the Pistons this year and are they a match for the Heat???

John Hollinger: (4:55 PM ET ) Can they beat out the Pistons? Yes. But I think you're forgetting that Cleveland is also in their division. I expect the Cavs to be formidable this year.

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Diego, UMass Amherst: Are you aware that Brian Grant is not playing for the Celtics? Also, why would you give Brian Scalabrine such an improvement? He has done nothing to keep our poor souls hopeful.

John Hollinger: (4:56 PM ET ) Scalabrine had a bad year even by his low standards a year ago; history of similar players tells us he probably won't be quite as bad again. Althoug his projected numbers still are plenty bad enough to keep him out of the rotation.

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Mo (Dallas): On a long term outlook, do you think Dirk will eventually win a Finals (maybe this year)? and do you think he is a hall of famer?

John Hollinger: (4:58 PM ET ) Dirk is a no-brainer for the Hall of Fame, and that would be true even if they weren't hell-bent on inducting every international baller with a pulse. As for winning the Finals, I do worry that last season may have been his best shot, but the window is still wide open.

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Brett(Atlanta): Over under on Billy Knight's employment 1 month?

John Hollinger: (4:59 PM ET ) Knight will stay GM until the ownership situation is resolved. If Belkin wins, Knight is toast on a stick. If the "Atlanta Spirit" group wins, he'll last at least another year.

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DJ (Chicago): John, you're on the Cavs band-wagon...not too many others are...what can the Cavs do to off-set their deficincies this year that they couldn't last year? They will still have the same problems while the Bulls have greatly improved.

John Hollinger: (5:01 PM ET ) That's the thing -- they won't have the same problems. Unless you think they're going to give 1,500 mintues to guys like Ira Newble and Sasha Pavlovic again. Here's the thing with Cleveland -- almost everybody except LeBron had an off year, Hughes missed half the season, and they still won 50 games. So what happens if guys like Marshall, Jones, and Hughes bounce back to their career norms, or Hughes plays 60? Even if LeBron doesn't improve much, they're going to be real good.

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Gary (DC): Will the Wizards play defense this year?

John Hollinger: (5:02 PM ET ) That's the big question in my mind, and it's the biggest hurdle facing Eddie Jordan right now.

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Steven Anthony ( Vail): What can I expect from the Nuggets this year? A lot of experts have them out of the playoff picture?

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[Diesel]

eremy (Atlanta): Joe Johnson may be overpaid, but that is what the Hawks had to do to land player of his calliber and his potential. Look for the Hawks to go .500

John Hollinger: (4:38 PM ET ) The Hawks won't go .500 unless they switch to the SEC. They won 26 last year and gave away their second-best player for nothing.

[gsuteke]

i read this part of the chat as we are in the lead for Oden in his opinion

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Jay (atalnta,ga): With this wealth of info online, I assume you won't be publishing Pro Basketball Forecast 2006?

John Hollinger: (4:48 PM ET ) If it wasn't clear already, no -- the book has basically morphed into an online entity, which made a lot more sense than having to write something in July that was long-since outdate by the time it hit the shelves.

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BiLLY: John, Do you seriously believe Marion to be ranked beyond 15th...In my eyes i see him to be 3rd or even second pick in a fantasy draft after lebron...why do you think differently ?

John Hollinger: (4:49 PM ET ) Just to be clear, these aren't fantasy rankings and should not be used as such.

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Travis, Canada: John, first chat of the season, give us your thoughts on all the major awards player and team wise?

John Hollinger: (4:50 PM ET ) Patience, Travis. We have plenty of time to give all our predicitons on that stuff.

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Widmer (Portland, OR): Bron Bron = MVP?

John Hollinger: (4:51 PM ET ) I think so. And on a happy note, I discovered this weekend that the new Whole Foods in Atlanta stocks Widmder Hefeweizen (and Brideport IPA to boot), meaning I no longer have to fly cross country just to taste some real beer.

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Michael (Houston, Tx): Do the Rockets have a chance to have homecourt in the first round this year? Tmac says his back is 100%!

John Hollinger: (4:52 PM ET ) I'll believe that from TMac when he plays out a full schedule, but if he can just stick around for 60-65 games then I think the Rockets are a top four team, yes.

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Richard (Irvine, CA): John: Since you're book used to come out in mid-October, are you saying this stuff is already outdated since it hits the computer screens in October and could have easily been written in June?

John Hollinger: (4:53 PM ET ) No, I'm saying I used to have to write stuff like "Bonzi Wells is still unsigned" instead of talking about his move to the Rockets, so I can provide a lot more analysis about the offseason.

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Geo (Miami, Fl): How in the hell do you and Marc Stein have a voice in sports? I can talk out of my rear end also, and I don't have a job with ESPN.

John Hollinger: (4:54 PM ET ) If you can do what you claim, I would think the circus would be a more appropriate employer.

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Jethro, Los Angeles: I believe the Lakers will be top 5 in the west.

John Hollinger: (4:55 PM ET ) Wouldn't shock me at all, to be honest. I think they overpaid for V-Rad but he'll help the bench, and don't overlook Shammond Williams. Biggest key, obviously, is Kobe's return from surgery.

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Mase(Chi-Town,Illinois: Two questions for you John.#1-Can the Bulls take the Central Division from the Pistons this year and are they a match for the Heat???

John Hollinger: (4:55 PM ET ) Can they beat out the Pistons? Yes. But I think you're forgetting that Cleveland is also in their division. I expect the Cavs to be formidable this year.

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Diego, UMass Amherst: Are you aware that Brian Grant is not playing for the Celtics? Also, why would you give Brian Scalabrine such an improvement? He has done nothing to keep our poor souls hopeful.

John Hollinger: (4:56 PM ET ) Scalabrine had a bad year even by his low standards a year ago; history of similar players tells us he probably won't be quite as bad again. Althoug his projected numbers still are plenty bad enough to keep him out of the rotation.

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Mo (Dallas): On a long term outlook, do you think Dirk will eventually win a Finals (maybe this year)? and do you think he is a hall of famer?

John Hollinger: (4:58 PM ET ) Dirk is a no-brainer for the Hall of Fame, and that would be true even if they weren't hell-bent on inducting every international baller with a pulse. As for winning the Finals, I do worry that last season may have been his best shot, but the window is still wide open.

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Brett(Atlanta): Over under on Billy Knight's employment 1 month?

John Hollinger: (4:59 PM ET ) Knight will stay GM until the ownership situation is resolved. If Belkin wins, Knight is toast on a stick. If the "Atlanta Spirit" group wins, he'll last at least another year.

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DJ (Chicago): John, you're on the Cavs band-wagon...not too many others are...what can the Cavs do to off-set their deficincies this year that they couldn't last year? They will still have the same problems while the Bulls have greatly improved.

John Hollinger: (5:01 PM ET ) That's the thing -- they won't have the same problems. Unless you think they're going to give 1,500 mintues to guys like Ira Newble and Sasha Pavlovic again. Here's the thing with Cleveland -- almost everybody except LeBron had an off year, Hughes missed half the season, and they still won 50 games. So what happens if guys like Marshall, Jones, and Hughes bounce back to their career norms, or Hughes plays 60? Even if LeBron doesn't improve much, they're going to be real good.

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Gary (DC): Will the Wizards play defense this year?

John Hollinger: (5:02 PM ET ) That's the big question in my mind, and it's the biggest hurdle facing Eddie Jordan right now.

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Steven Anthony ( Vail): What can I expect from the Nuggets this year? A lot of experts have them out of the playoff picture?

John Hollinger: (5:04 PM ET ) Nuggets expectations are all over the map depending on health, chemistry, and how J.R. Smith comes along (or whether they can make a trade for another shooting guard). All I can do at this point is tell you what I think the most probably outcome is [that goes for the other teams too by the way], and that would put them around 45 wins and most likely another division title.

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Tim (Los Angeles): You have Clippers barely/not making the playoffs. I'm pretty sure you'll eat those words.

John Hollinger: (5:06 PM ET ) I think the Clips fans are a little giddy about what happened last year. Take a sober look back -- they got the easiest playoff bracket, by far, and their regular season wasn't off the charts or antyhing. I'm very worried about the age in the backcourt -- a common trait among teams that suddenly get bad -- and I think Tim Thomas will revert to dog mode now that he's been paid. Could they win 50? Sure. But I think it's more likely they end up around .500.

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Mike(New Jersey): Why do you have Darko ranked ahead of Nenad Krstic in overall points? Darko still hasn't proven anything in the regular season and until he does I don't think you can rate him over Nenad

John Hollinger: (5:08 PM ET ) I think Krstic is a bit overrated to be honest -- I don't get all the Most Improved love for him last year at all, and I'd take Darko over him in a heartbeat.

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Ryan Orlando: With Darko Millicic, Dwight Howard, and Carlos Arroyo's play this summer in the FIBA World Championships, how would you rate the Magic's possible success this season?

John Hollinger: (5:08 PM ET ) They're a playoff team to me, but the bigs gotta stay healthy because they're got ZILCH behind Darko and Howard.

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Jack (NYC): Given that Kaman was just offered 10 mil a year, how big a steal is Perk's 4-year, 16 mil deal? You have him projected at about the same PER as Kaman, plus he's got bigger defensive upside...

John Hollinger: (5:09 PM ET ) Perkins's extension was an underrated heist, yes -- one of the best moves of the Ainge administration.

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Andy (LA): What are the Kings prospects for this year?

John Hollinger: (5:10 PM ET ) I'm a bit down on them. Sacto's frontcourt depth is pitiful, and I think a lot of people don't realize how poorly Artest played offensively after the trade. They'll part of that mass of teams slugging it out for the final couple playoff teams in the West, but I think they're more likely out than in.

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Tim (wisconsin): With Ersan Ilyasova playing well in the FIBA championships this summer do you think the bucks will play him alot in place of Simmons?

John Hollinger: (5:12 PM ET ) Ruben Patterson will start in place of Simmons, and Charlie Bell will probably soak up most of what's left (with Redd moving to the 3). But Ilyasova might get 5-10 minutes here and there until Simmons gets back.

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Javier (Parma): Last year, the Cavs were undefeated in OT games. They also won an insane amount of games by 5 pts or less, especially at the end of the season. Is this a testament to LeBron James/Mike Brown, or was this a lucky phenomenom that the cavs shouldn't count on this year?

John Hollinger: (5:13 PM ET ) It was a lucky phenomenon, but it also evened out what had been a string of bad luck running the other direction during the season's first half.

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PM (CA): Baron is slimmed-down, hoping to stay healthy. Nellie's back. Small-ball is on the way... is this the year the 12yr playoff drought ends?

John Hollinger: (5:14 PM ET ) I'm not as bullish on the W's as Stein is -- still think the small forwards are lousy, not feeling the Murphy-to-center thing, and Baron still has to prove he can stay in one piece.

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Justin (Coral Springs, Fl): With all this NBA talk, its funny how nobody has brought up Dwayne Wade.Do you see any chance for MVP?

John Hollinger: (5:15 PM ET ) Yes, we should probably mention him, eh? He has a great shot at MVP, yes, now that everybody finally recognizes he's their best player.

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KC (NYC): Do you see Isiah and his band of misfits making the playoffs?

John Hollinger: (5:16 PM ET ) I think they'll stay in the hunt for much of the year, but their inability to defend will ultimately leave them several games short. One thing I'll say about the Knicks is that they're quite deep, which is an underrated thing during an 82-game slog.

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Ryan (Chicago): Do you think the pistons are going to make a move to get another top center to replace Wallace? If so who?

John Hollinger: (5:17 PM ET ) I think they'd like to, but I don't see how they can do it. I'm sure Joe D will be working every angle between now and the trade deadline, but the Pistons had no Plan B for what to do if Wallace didn't re-sign.

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Dan (WhippedonE, SC): John, We know the Sonics cannot play any D. But, with marginal improvement from the big men and Ray Ray, where do you see them finishing?

John Hollinger: (5:19 PM ET ) Swift and Petro are keys, as you mention, as most of the other Sonics are known commodities at this point and their output is fairly predictable. I'm guessing a record much like last year's unless the D picks up.

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Doozer (Charterwood): Will Rajon Rondo win ROY?

John Hollinger: (5:19 PM ET ) Calm down everybody, it was one preseason game.

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Richard (Atlanta): How well do you think Jarrett Jack will adjust to being the starting point guard in Portland?

John Hollinger: (5:20 PM ET ) I think he'll be just fine -- it's a little ahead of time perhaps, but in another year or two should make a very solid starter.

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Ryan (Cleveland): Are you trying to set a chat record?

John Hollinger: (5:21 PM ET ) No, that's Simmons's job. I'm just going a little long here because a lot of good questions are still rolling in.

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scott, chicago: So who do you see as the frontrunner for the greg oden sweepstakes?

John Hollinger: (5:21 PM ET ) Let's just say I see a lot of Widmer Hefeweizen in his future.

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Jason (Ohio): What should the Pistons plan B have been? They dealt Darko thinking it'd be worth it to re-sign Ben for $60 million, but then he turned into a whining baby and was terrible in the playoffs.

John Hollinger: (5:23 PM ET ) But that's just it -- once they traded Darko they unnecessarily painted themselves into a corner.

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Chip Champion (NYC): Should we buy into the Don Nelson praise for Mike Dunleavy? If this team goes up tempo and Dunleavy gets 35 minutes, what might his numbers look like? I got suckered in last year and I'm cautious this year.

John Hollinger: (5:24 PM ET ) I'm more than cautious. Actually, "snickering" might be a better term. But unless Pietrus is a lot better than a year ago, GS has almost no choice but to play Dunleavy.

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Chipper (NYC): Stromile Swift - is he a lost cause? Or will he take his present opportunity and run (and dunk and block shots) with it?

John Hollinger: (5:25 PM ET ) I'd love to see Swift go to a team like Phoenix and just run all day -- playing for structure guys like JVG and Fratello ain't his bag. He might put up some #s with Pau gone, but it's not a great fit.

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Paul (Rego Park ,NY): How do you think the Nets will fare this year? They should win 50 with Jefferson and Krstic entering their prime. Could they approach 60 and obtain the first seed overall?

[gutz]

John Hollinger is obviously a complete idiot that doesn't know anything about the NBA. We will easily win more than 26 games this year! Give me a break . JJ would have to go down for us not to at least match last years win total.

[gsuteke]

we seem to be in the minority with that opinion

[DavidSomerset]

Do you think from now on maybe when you post the chat transcripts you could put the Hawks part in bold or something?

Thanks

[Traceman]

I don't think it is even close to being reliable. Any projection that projects Chuck Hayes to be a better PF than Dwight Howard this year is ridiculous.

[Guest Walter]

Quote:

---

John Hollinger is obviously a complete idiot that doesn't know anything about the NBA. We will easily win more than 26 games this year! Give me a break . JJ would have to go down for us not to at least match last years win total.

---

He was describing how poor we were last season and what other obstacle we had created for ourselves in trading Al (for nothing). This is common sense to most people. We can hope that player development and a role playing 5th pick can make a 24 win difference (or whatever), but alot of what made us a 26 win team remains or is worse (? coaching, forward glut, youth, interior defense at the center position) and we may have less talent without Al.

We had so much more potential to remake this team this offseason than what actually occurred. Not to say the short term prospect would have been better with all other offseason options, but the long term prospects were limited given the ones BK chose in favor of short-term mediocrity and yet we still have a ways to go to measure up to even that (mediocrity = say 35-45 wins).

W

[gsuteke]

bwahahahaha

although it never hurts to ask!

[WraithSentinel]

Could be in the majority. I went by Realgm Hawks page (http://hawks.realgm.com/) and 52% said the Hawks will make the playoffs. It is only 156 votes. I was still surprise by the results. Considering how pessimistic our fans can be at times.

[gsuteke]

he passed on a chance to dog Shelden. here's the rest of the chat.

btw to the posters who want me to highlight the Hawks stuff

1. i'm not a computer guy. anything more than cut and paste - it's over my head. CBA showed me the photobucket thing.

2. i post the entire chat because i think it's relative to the Hawks. after all it's a competitive sport and other teams' successes and failures have a direct affect on our favorite lovable losers.

--------------------------------------

John

are you killing some time until the Hawks game at 7? We all know you are a closet Hawks fan.

LOL he wouldn't answer that question. i posted it 30 times.

--------------------------------------------------

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Paul (Rego Park ,NY): How do you think the Nets will fare this year? They should win 50 with Jefferson and Krstic entering their prime. Could they approach 60 and obtain the first seed overall?

John Hollinger: (5:27 PM ET ) I don't think that's a reasonable expectation at all. Last year pretty much everybody stayed healthy, they won far more games than their point differential indicated they should, and they still didn't win 50. Now they're going to do it with Kidd a year older, Carter house-hunting in Charlotte and their top free agent on crutches?

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Citizen (World): So, if you can convert Euroleague numbers to NBA PER's can you do it for college kids? I'd think NBA GM's would pay a pretty penny for accurate projections.

John Hollinger: (5:29 PM ET ) It's only feasible for Euroleague actually, because the game is much closer to NBA in several respects -- shot-clock, longer 3-pt line, higher quality competition, less rampant fouling at end of games, etc.

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Jared P. (Orlando): What is your view on the Pacers off the court problems. Do u think it will affect there success on the court?

John Hollinger: (5:30 PM ET ) Well, if their starting shooting guard is behind bars, then yes it will affect them on the court very much. Good thing for Indiana is that they're deep enough to handle pretty much anything, but one feels like they're slowly turning into the Blazers.

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Quilla (LA): How do you think Shaun Livingston will do this year?? I know he's had some tought seasons w/ injures so far, but many think its his time to blow as Cassell gets older...what do you think?

John Hollinger: (5:31 PM ET ) Livingston's career depends on his getting some kind of a jump shot. I'm talking anything -- even a somewhat reliable 15-footer. Without it, he's just a 10-minute-a-night curiosity.

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Matt (Simi Valley, CA): Is Kwame Brown really ready for a break out season as Ric Bucher reported?

John Hollinger: (5:32 PM ET ) I can't comment on Ric's report because I haven' read it yet, but I'm skeptical of Brown contributing beyond generic-backup-center level production.

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Nat (Brooklyn, NY): Who do you think will get the majority of the guard PT on Charlotte? I don't Morrison keeping with NBA SGs. Carroll? Or will Felton and Knight play together frequently?

John Hollinger: (5:33 PM ET ) I see Felton and Knight paired up quite a bit, and I see Wallace effectively playing SG a lot (whether they choose to call Morrison the SG or not, I'll be $100 Wallace is guarding the opposing SG), and Carroll/Allan Anderson/Bernard Robinson getting 10-15 minutes off the pine.

John Hollinger: (5:33 PM ET ) All that may change if and when they trade Knight, though.

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Patrick (DC): Strictly a theoretical question here, John - Jason Campbell or Mark Brunell?

John Hollinger: (5:34 PM ET ) Gotta stick with Brunell for now. Maybe if they stop running a Nintendo offense and hammer it more with Portis they can beat the likes of the mighty Titans.

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Jay (Chicago): You say Hinrich isn't an All-star or anything -- but he's an Olympian for pete's sake. He's been under-rated his whole career -- you just proved it. The only reason he's not an All-Star is because he doesn't take 40 shots a game like the rest of the "ALL-Star PG's".

John Hollinger: (5:36 PM ET ) He doesn't shoot 40 times, but he does shoot 40 percent, and while I'm nit picking he has a low assist rate and doesn't get into the paint enough. So that would be the larger reason he's not All-Star caliber.

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Michael(Cleveland): Will Toronto see a games won improvment this season with Bargs?

John Hollinger: (5:37 PM ET ) I'm dubious -- everyone keeps forgetting that Mike James had a huge year last year, and they lost him uncompensated. They other improvements will pretty much be offset by that in my estimation, leaving the Raps about where they started.

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gregory (Seattle, WA): Have you ever considered weighting your metrics, giving stats later in the year greater weight? Seems like it would make sense, especially for younger players (older players too, actually)

John Hollinger: (5:38 PM ET ) It seems like it, but I haven't seen any actually evidence that it *does*, -- the basic rule of thumb is that the more information we have, the easier it is to make projections, and that's why you're almost always better off using the full 82 games.

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Andy (Long Beach): How long did it take you to do all these rankings? Did you do it alone, or do you have a staff to help?

John Hollinger: (5:40 PM ET ) I did all the rankings by myself, but a ton of techies and producers at ESPN got it all into the format you see now. And while I'm on the topic, a big shout out to those folks for all their hard work.

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Andrew (Charlotte): You rated Raymond Felton to low. He will be an All-Star and a top 8 PG by season's end.

John Hollinger: (5:41 PM ET ) It's possible. It's also not *probable*. What I'm looking at is the most probable outcome based on historically similar players. Most guards who do what Felton did at the same age and experience level don't suddenly make the All-Star team in year 2.

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Dave (Mpls): Can the T'wolves win their weak division with the additions of James and Foye to help KG, and (I'm reaching here) a more productive Eddie Griffin?

John Hollinger: (5:43 PM ET ) That's the nice thing about this time of year -- you can construct a positive scenario for just about anybody. I'm going to tell you what I've been telling a lot of fans from a bunch of different teams -- it *could* happen, sure, but I wouldn't bet anything I wanted to keep on it.

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Jordan (Hamilton, ONT): You've said that the Raptors won't be as good as they were last year because of the "huge" year Mike James had. He put up very good numbers but you seem to forget how many 3 pt chucks were made in the last few minutes of games that led to losses. Why won't TJ Ford fix this?

John Hollinger: (5:44 PM ET ) The Raps were one of the best offensive teams in the league last year, so I don't think it was James's shot selection that was the problem. It was the D that killed them.

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Henry (NY): Who do you see being the most dissapointing lottery pick this year? I'm leaning towards Shelden Williams.

John Hollinger: (5:44 PM ET ) History says Patrick O'Bryant. Seven-footers drafted late in the lottery have a terrible track record.

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Kevin (Atlanta): John- Just wondering how low your project PER for Nenad Krstic is since he doesn't appear on your lists. Would your Nets projections be any better with the knowledge that he still plays in the NBA on the Nets- and that he averages almost 14 pts and 6 rebs per game?

John Hollinger: (5:45 PM ET ) I think the "6 rebounds" part kind of does my explaining for me. Krstic is a middle of the pack power forward, nothing more.

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Steve (Pittsburgh): How much of an effect (positive or negative) do you think playing in the World Championships has on players?

John Hollinger: (5:46 PM ET ) A lot less than people imagine. Well, unless they break a bone in their foot and miss half the season.

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Ross (Bellingham, WA): HUGE Nash fan, how could the two time MVP that is so pivitol in his teams success be ranked so low?

John Hollinger: (5:47 PM ET ) His projected PER isn't that different from his ratings the past two years. I can't control how poeple vote, but his PER has been consistent at that level for about five-six years now.

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Brad 9NM): Why does Shaq have such a high PER when he's only gonna end up playing half the season as usual..if even that much?

John Hollinger: (5:47 PM ET ) If I didn't already make this clear in the earlier post, it's a per-minute ranking. So durability isn't part of the picture here.

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Tyler (Riverhood, NY): Why Gerald Wallace at 30 I mean I don't see it.

John Hollinger: (5:48 PM ET ) Watch a Bobcats game sometime. Wallace is the single most underrated player in the league.

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Frank Houston: now Did you rate Chuck hayes on his Offensive rebounds or Defensive rebounds?? because you just said you dont look at the defensive stats....

John Hollinger: (5:49 PM ET ) Well, not quite -- I DO look at the defensive stats (Defensive rebounds, steals, blocks, fouls), but they tell us a very small portion of what a player's overall defensive contribution is.

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Ty (Lewisburg, PA): Channing Frye or Nenad Krstic? Or are they the same player?

John Hollinger: (5:49 PM ET ) Frye. Big time breakout potential now that he has a coach that doesn't hate all his players.

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Ehsan ( Kalluj Iran): Which late draft pick rookie do you see having an impact this year in the NBA?

John Hollinger: (5:51 PM ET ) I love Paul Millsap, the second-round pick by the Jazz. Big-time rebounder, and I think he might be a steal.

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Samuel: If the Suns win 66 or more games and Nash make 12 as/game could be the MVP?

John Hollinger: (5:52 PM ET ) He'd almost have to do that, because he won't have the surprise factor this time around.

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Henry (NY): Do you Emeka coming back this year with solid double-double numbers that are closer to his rookie year?

John Hollinger: (5:53 PM ET ) Yes, I think that's reasonable.

John Hollinger: (5:54 PM ET ) Alright folks, time to wrap things up here. Thanks for all the great questions -- far too many than I could possibly answer -- and we'll do this again soon.

[mrhonline]

Joe Johnson is not overpaid. He only makes $10M this year, and with the Hawks some $8M under the cap, his cap hit ($13M) is practically irrelevant.

[gsuteke]

Quote:

---

Joe Johnson is not overpaid. He only makes $10M this year, and with the Hawks some $8M under the cap, his cap hit ($13M) is practically irrelevant.

---

where would be psychologically as Hawks fans w/o Joe Johnson?

we'd have Marcus Williams or Rajon Rondo to show for our troubles. i was totally against paying what they did at the time but the ramifications of Joe not being here are just too dire to even consider.

[DavidSomerset]

nm

[gsuteke]

Quote:

---

nm

---

me posting this stuff while i'm surfing around at work so you can have access to it later is quite frankly going above and beyond what most members of this board would be willing to do.

common courtesy would be for you to say "thank you."

[mrhonline]

Quote:

---

where would be psychologically as Hawks fans w/o Joe Johnson?

we'd have Marcus Williams or Rajon Rondo to show for our troubles. i was totally against paying what they did at the time but the ramifications of Joe not being here are just too dire to even consider.

---

But, but, but...he doesn't look good in Hollinger's "one size fits all" statistics. ;0

Seriously, I think scientists will solve the whole "unified field theory" stuff before NBA statisticians realize you can't quantify what happens on the court with one catch-all number.

[DavidSomerset]

When I post chat transcripts or when just about anyone else does on any message boards I've been on they bold the part that relates to the team...not saying you have to, but it would be nice to not scroll through 10 pages of chat transcripts to find something about the Hawks.

Don't get so offended.

[Plainview1981]

Quote:

---

Quote:

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John Hollinger is obviously a complete idiot that doesn't know anything about the NBA. We will easily win more than 26 games this year! Give me a break . JJ would have to go down for us not to at least match last years win total.

---

He was describing how poor we were last season and what other obstacle we had created for ourselves in trading Al (for nothing). This is common sense to most people. We can hope that player development and a role playing 5th pick can make a 24 win difference (or whatever), but alot of what made us a 26 win team remains or is worse (? coaching, forward glut, youth, interior defense at the center position) and we may have less talent without Al.

We had so much more potential to remake this team this offseason than what actually occurred. Not to say the short term prospect would have been better with all other offseason options, but the long term prospects were limited given the ones BK chose in favor of short-term mediocrity and yet we still have a ways to go to measure up to even that (mediocrity = say 35-45 wins).

W

---

The problem is that Al Harrington is an overrated pile of shyt. Just another tweener that put up unimpressive stats on a bad team. 6.9 Rebounds per game? Are you kidding me?

[Plainview1981]

Quote:

---

Quote:

---

Quote:

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John Hollinger is obviously a complete idiot that doesn't know anything about the NBA. We will easily win more than 26 games this year! Give me a break . JJ would have to go down for us not to at least match last years win total.

---

[/indent]

He was describing how poor we were last season and what other obstacle we had created for ourselves in trading Al (for nothing). This is common sense to most people. We can hope that player development and a role playing 5th pick can make a 24 win difference (or whatever), but alot of what made us a 26 win team remains or is worse (? coaching, forward glut, youth, interior defense at the center position) and we may have less talent without Al.

We had so much more potential to remake this team this offseason than what actually occurred. Not to say the short term prospect would have been better with all other offseason options, but the long term prospects were limited given the ones BK chose in favor of short-term mediocrity and yet we still have a ways to go to measure up to even that (mediocrity = say 35-45 wins).

W

---

[/indent]

"

John Hollinger: (5:45 PM ET ) I think the "6 rebounds" part kind of does my explaining for me. Krstic is a middle of the pack power forward, nothing more."

but he thinks it's such a big loss that the Hawks lost a 6RPG Power Forward? Crazy man.

[terrynoonan]

Who is this guy. It's ok for regular guy fans to have no idea that on a 5 man team a guy like Al will destroy any chance of winning. He's supposed to know better.

Getting nothing but a pick for Al was the best thing that could have happened.

Defense isn't part of his saber-metric like equation. What a tool.

He should go to the gym occasionally. Play a little ball.

It's ok though, we really are gonna shock the world.

No one gives us a chance.

I've said it since I got here, if Al is gone all things are possible.