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Trade deadline aftershocks

by Chad Ford

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Also Below: Free-agent aftershocks | Draft aftershocks | Summer trade talk aftershocks | Salary-cap aftershocks | Payton aftershock | Peep Show

Three days have passed since the NBA trade deadline slipped into the night. The ramifications of what did and didn't happen on Thursday are still the talk of the NBA. How will it affect free agency, the 2003 NBA draft, summer trade talk and the infamous salary-cap and luxury-tax situations of NBA teams? Insider breaks down the 2003 trade deadline aftershocks . . .

Free-agent aftershocks

The 2003 free-agent landscape didn't take a major hit during the trade deadline, but several significant developments could make an impact this summer . . .

The Sonics were one of the four or five teams that were expected to have semi-serious cap room this summer. Trading Gary Payton for Ray Allen eliminated all of the Sonics' cap space for this summer, shrinking the teams that look to be players in the free-agent market to three -- San Antonio, Utah and Denver. Indiana will also have lots of cap room, but the Pacers will use it all up re-signing Jermaine O'Neal, Brad Miller and Reggie Miller. The Clippers will also have major room, but no one seriously thinks they'll use it. The Heat and Pistons will also have significant cap room, but not enough to sign a max player. The Magic and Cavs will have a little spare change.

Jason Kidd

Point Guard

New Jersey Nets

Profile

2002-2003 SEASON STATISTICS

GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%

55 19.7 6.1 8.5 .425 .837

The Sonics' moves should have a major impact on Jason Kidd's free-agent recruiting tour this summer. Kidd has indicated numerous times that he wants to play the field, but most league observers have felt that only two teams, the Spurs and Sonics, had a realistic chance of prying Kidd away from the Nets. With the Sonics now out of the picture, this will really be a two-horse race between the Spurs and the Nets. The Nuggets might have an outside chance if they end up with LeBron James and are able to lure another top-flight free agent to come on board with Kidd, but it's pretty unlikely Kidd would pass up the chance to play with Duncan to babysit the Nuggets.

The Warriors' inability to clear cap space before the deadline means they're heading into a showdown this summer with Gilbert Arenas, and more important, his agent, Dan Fegan. Fegan, for those of you who aren't familiar with his exploits, essentially strip mined Utah and Houston the last few years when they wouldn't overpay to keep his clients. Unfortunately for the Warriors, they have three Fegan clients, Arenas, Troy Murphy and Jason Richardson. That could spell trouble. Fegan has a reputation, fairly or unfairly, of always jumping ship for the highest dollar. This summer, if the Warriors don't find a way to cut between $15 and $20 million in cap space, the most the team can offer Arenas is a contract starting at the average-player salary. Several teams, including the Nuggets and Heat, will be far enough under the cap to offer Arenas significantly more.

While Warriors COO Robert Rowell said Saturday that the team is committed to paying the luxury tax to keep Arenas, it still doesn't help them much this summer. If the Nuggets were to offer Arenas $7 million a year, would Arenas take $2.5 million less to re-sign with Golden State? Maybe. The Sonics were in a similar situation with Rashard Lewis a few summers ago and convinced Lewis to stay. They did it by offering him a two-year contract with a player opt out after the first year. If Arenas was willing to take $4.5 million next year, he could opt out in the summer of 2004. By then, Arenas would have been with the team three years and the Warriors would own his Bird rights. That would essentially allow the club to re-sign Arenas to a long-term contract at a much higher figure. So, assuming Arenas agreed to a wink-wink deal with the Warriors, he could re-sign in 2004 to a contract starting at $7.7 million. Since the Warriors are able to give him 12.5 percent raises and other teams are only able to give him 10 percent raises, the Warriors could, by the end of a six year contract, offer Arenas that same total amount of cash as the Nuggets could.

Where is Gary Payton going to get his big offer this summer? The Spurs are looking for youth, and he'd never play in Denver or Utah. The Heat don't have enough pieces to make a serious run at a championship and everyone else is limited to paying him the mid-level exception. Payton's only realistic shot at a golden parachute is to re-sign with the Bucks. If he's unhappy with them, or, if the George Karl-Payton love affair cools, he's going to wish he was more reasonable when he haggled with the Sonics the last few seasons.

The big free-agent winner may be Elden Campbell. The Hornets had no real intention of re-signing Campbell this summer, meaning he would've lost his Bird rights. With so many players competing for mid-level exception slots, it's possible that Campbell would've been lost in the shuffle. Not anymore. If he plays well for the Sonics, another big if, they can choose to re-sign him and still have the use of their full mid-level exception.

Warriors must get creative, get Kidd

Mark Purdy / San Jose Mercury News

Team would bust tax level in effort to keep Arenas

Brad Weinstein / San Francisco Chronicle

When business gets personal

Percy Allen / Seattle Times

Nuggets may get sneak peek at future

Chris Tomasson / Rocky Mountain News

Draft aftershocks

A series of moves, and non-moves, gave several teams a better chance to land the ultimate prize this summer -- LeBron James . . .

Everything starts in Seattle. No one believes that this team will be any better with Ray Allen than it was with Gary Payton and Desmond Mason. The Sonics' move was directed toward the future. Currently, the Sonics are 23-31 and have just a 1.1 percent chance of winning the lottery. However, there's a chance for the team to keep moving up the ladder now. After a hot 8-2 start, the Sonics are just 15-29. The team is just one win ahead of the Knicks for ninth place in the lottery. And it's just four wins from leap frogging a number of teams -- the Bulls, Heat, Clippers, Hawks -- into a much more comfortable position. It's not inconceivable that the Sonics could end the season with a nine percent chance of winning the lottery. That's the good news.

The bad news is that the conditional first-round pick that the team is getting from Milwaukee won't help much. The best the Sonics can hope for is that the Hawks fall to No. 4 in the draft and the Bucks don't make the playoffs, pull off a miracle and land either the first, second or third slot in the lottery. If that happens, they'd get the Hawks pick. The worst case scenario, and a more likely one, is that the Bucks go on a run with Payton on board and end up with one of the 10 best records in the league. The Bucks are only three games behind the Celtics, who currently hold the 10th-best record. If that happens, the Bucks will keep the Hawks' pick, send their draft pick (if it's between 19-29) to the Pistons and the Sonics will be stuck with two second-round picks from Milwaukee.

It seems pretty likely that the Cavs and Nuggets will stay one and two in the lottery standings for the rest of the year. The next two closest teams, Memphis and Toronto, both look like they're poised to make late-season runs. The Grizzles' acquisition of Mike Miller gives them another solid scorer to go along with Pau Gasol and Jason Williams. The team still has a long way to go, but I think they'll be much better over the home stretch. The Raptors have been on fire since Vince Carter returned from injury. The team is 7-3 during that stretch and will probably play itself out of a high lottery pick by the end of the season. That probably leaves the Heat, Bulls and Clippers in a scrum for the coveted third-worst record in the league.

Summer trade talk aftershocks

Expect to see a bunch of the same players on this winter's trading block back in play this summer when trades are much easier to consummate . . .

Kevin Garnett

Small Forward

Minnesota Timberwolves

Profile

2002-2003 SEASON STATISTICS

GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%

57 23.0 13.0 5.6 .497 .755

Expect the Kevin Garnett rumors to really start heating up this summer. If the two sides can't come to terms on an extension, the T-Wolves are in serious danger of losing him for nothing. What will it take to convince Garnett to sign an extension? The T-Wolves are going to have to make a bold move this summer. They tried to land Eddie Jones before the break. They came close, but Heat coach Pat Riley couldn't bear that thought of losing Jones for a guy, Terrell Brandon, with one foot in the grave. While those talks may be dead, the T-Wolves need to figure out a similar deal to make Garnett happy. He's willing to take less money if the Wolves prove to him that they'll use the savings to sign another star. So far, Garnett has been seriously disappointed.

If the Hawks continue their losing ways, expect the team to shake things up, hire a new GM and get to work on retooling the roster. Priority No. 1 this summer will be figuring out what to do with Jason Terry. The Hawks can't afford to sign him to a long-term deal for several reasons. One, their luxury-tax situation is already bad. Two, it will kill his trade value. The best bet for them is to work out a sign-and-trade that packages him with a guy like Nazr Mohammed or Theo Ratliff. The Hawks should also have plenty of time to figure out what to do with Shareef Abdur-Rahim. For whatever reason, it isn't working and he still has lots of trade value. Again, the key is cutting a few other salaries off the books before moving Rahim.

The Warriors should have an easier job moving the likes of Chris Mills, Bob Sura and, if worse comes to worst, Adonal Foyle. Despite what they're saying about paying the luxury tax for Gilbert Arenas, they really would like to clear the cap room now.

Marcus Camby

Forward-Center

Denver Nuggets

Profile

2002-2003 SEASON STATISTICS

GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%

6 4.2 5.5 0.8 .308 .333

Depending on where the Nuggets land in the draft, don't be surprised to see Marcus Camby's name pop up in trade talks around draft day. Now that Seattle is out of the free-agent picture, the Nuggets see a golden opportunity to clear more cap space and make a run at another free agent. Moving Camby would give them another seven million under the cap.

Raef LaFrentz, Vince Carter, Antawn Jamison, Paul Pierce, Dirk Nowitzki, Mike Bibby, Peja Stojakovic, Rashard Lewis, Bonzi Wells, Jason Williams, Michael Dickerson, Al Harrington, Eduardo Najera, Ricky Davis, Michael Redd, Pat Garrity and Malik Rose lose their base-year compensation status this summer. Expect the LaFrentz, Carter and Wells rumors to run rampant if the Mavs, Raptors and Blazers fail to get it done in May and June.

The big currency this summer will again be players in the last year of their contracts. It's highly doubtful that teams will be able to clear much cap room before the NBA draft. That means the guys in vogue this summer will be players whose contracts expire in 2004. Among the names you could see dangled? Glen Rice, Tom Gugliotta, Brent Barry, Ron Mercer, Eric Williams, Brevin Knight, Wesley Person, Toni Kukoc and Greg Ostertag.

Salary-cap aftershocks

GMs and owners looked like deer in the headlights as the trade deadline approached. All they could see were huge luxury-tax bills attached to all of their moves. That meant that the deadline dealing will have little impact on teams' tax bills with a few notable exceptions . . .

Grizzlies president Jerry West got his Larry Bird wannabe in Mike Miller, but how much will it cost the Grizzlies in terms of cap flexibility down the road? Miller becomes a restricted free agent in 2004. While he hasn't played at a max level yet, he'll surely command a hefty salary.

Here's the Grizzlies' current cap situation. The Grizzlies will clear Bryant Reeves' $13 million contract off the books this summer. Next summer they'll dump Wesley Person's $7.7 million salary, Brevin Knight's $5 million salary and Stromile Swift's $4.6 million salary. That would leave West with around $10 million in cap room, assuming that the cap gets back to $42 million in 2004.

If the team would've kept Gooden, his salary would've counted $3.2 million on the books for 2004-05 season. Gordan Giricek's contract was set to expire after next season, meaning that the Grizzlies would've been left with around $6.8 million in cap space. Assuming Miller commands at least $6 million a year, and adding in Ryan Humphrey's $1.2 million salary for 2004, the Grizzlies instead are looking at around $3 million in cap space. It could be much less than that if Miller has a breakout year next season.

West, who has talked about getting cap flexibility and luring one real superstar to the team, may have painted himself into a corner. Unless West figures out a way to get Lorenzen Wright ($7.2 million in 2004) and either Jason Williams or Michael Dickerson (both make $6.98 million in 2004) off the cap before the summer of 2004 hits, there's no way he'll have the money to make a run at a superstar like Kobe Bryant or Kevin Garnett.

It won't get any better from there. The contracts for Pau Gasol, Shane Battier and Earl Watson come up the next summer. Assuming they keep Gasol, their cap will basically be shot at the point for the next six years.

Milwaukee is in a win-win situation in regards to Gary Payton. If he stays, they'll probably be able to sign him for relatively cheap given the low demand in the market next summer. If he leaves, they'll clear $12.6 million off their cap. While that's not enough to make them a player in free agency, it will keep them far enough away from the luxury tax that GM Ernie Grunfeld will be allowed to use the team's mid-level exception this year.

As we said earlier, the Sonics lost all of their cap room when they dealt for Ray Allen, but they're still not in terrible shape financially. The team should be around eight million under the projected luxury-tax threshold going into this summer. A couple of lottery picks will eat up some of that, but they still should have enough flexibility to make a move or two without incurring the luxury tax. They'll probably scour the market for either a young big man or point guard willing to take the $4.5 million exception. They'll also have first dibs on Elden Campbell if he plays well.

Payton aftershock

Gary Payton finally spoke his mind about team president Wally Walker, GM Rick Sund and Sonics owner Howard Schultz this weekend. It wasn't pretty.

"Howard talks and I really don't think he knows what he's talking about," Payton told the Seattle Times. "He just talks. That's all he does. He's an owner and he just talks. I've been a leader for 13 years and he just took over the team two years ago and now he thinks he knows everything about basketball, and I really don't think he knows anything about basketball."

"I don't think Howard has any choice but to respect me as a basketball player. I was never hurt. Every time I went out on the floor I played hard. I can't play any other way. But I think Howard went by things that other people told him. That's what caused the problems with me and him and that's where the relationship went wrong. I think they had a problem with me because they knew I wasn't the guy that they could just run over."

But as harsh as Payton was, it was Bucks coach George Karl who seemed to seethe the real venom.

"I feel bad for Nate (McMillan)," Karl told the Tacoma Tribune. "I know it was tough for me coming (to Milwaukee) with players that didn't want to play defense. Now he lost Gary, the heart of any defense. There's a part of me that's just as sad about Gary not retiring as a Sonic as me not retiring there. Just because it's part of the business doesn't make it any easier. At the hotel after the trade was made, a lady came up to me and said, 'Coach, this is the second time I've cried about the Sonics. The first was when you got fired. Does anybody really think they know what they're doing?' "

Payton pops off with choice words

Steve Kelley / Seattle Times

Schultz and Walker play defense

Staff / Tacoma News Tribune

When business gets personal

Percy Allen / Seattle Times

Peep Show

Denver Nuggets, Orlando Magic, Los Angeles Lakers: The team is expected to waive guard Chris Whitney in the next few days. Whitney asked to be waived after the team traded for point guard Shammond Williams. The Magic and Lakers are on the short list to pick him up after he clears waivers. "They're both playoff-contending teams and would be good situations," Whitney told the Orlando Sentinel. "Both situations are very appealing to me." To be eligible for the playoffs, Whitney would have to be waived by Saturday.

Golden State Warriors: Is there a growing feud between Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison? They've traded barbs over the last week, but Arenas claims that everything is cool. "It's fine," Arenas told the Contra Costa Times. "We sit next to each other on the plane when he's not taking money from me. I didn't even know he said that before we played the Knicks. There were, like, two things in the papers that have made it look like we don't get along."

Atlanta Hawks: Talk about your revisionist history. Two days after the trade deadline passed, GM Pete Babcock apologized to his players for the perception that there was a fire sale in Atlanta. "We weren't shopping players around," Babcock told the Atlanta Journal Constitution. "I told the players, 'I'm sorry if you felt [the trade rumors were] distracting to you and made it hard for you to concentrate on playing, but we all get paid for the aggravation of all of this.' We're all in the business of trying to improve our teams, and we try to be open with our guys and say everybody is available every day. It doesn't mean that we were trying to trade every player. But we're trying to get better. Any team that doesn't say that isn't being true to their players." That contradicts reports from numerous GMs who claim that everyone in Atlanta was available.

Boston Celtics: Has Vin Baker hit rock bottom yet? Being replaced by minimum-salary big man Mark Blount in the rotation is just the latest low blow to the $12 million invisible man, according to the Boston Globe. Coach Jim O'Brien has refused to let Baker play of late and he's already praising Blount's toughness. "If you're practicing with more physical people, bigger people that hit harder, then you get accustomed to playing tougher and playing bigger," O'Brien said.

Philadelphia 76ers: Center Todd MacCulloch's career may be over. MacCulloch was diagnosed with Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease. Although the hereditary disease is not life-threatening, there is no cure. "Basically, we're approaching this to get quality of life for Todd at this point, and basketball will be secondary," Billy King, the Sixers' general manager, told the Philly Inquirer. "There's no definite ruling on his career or his season."

Magic, Memphis Grizzlies: Magic coach Doc Rivers said he wasn't intimidated to make a trade with legend Jerry West. "He also traded for Glenn Rice and gave up Elden Campbell and Eddie Jones," Rivers told the Orlando Sentinel. "No one's perfect. No one's batting a 1,000. We obviously are not and neither is Jerry West. He had a (logjam at power forward). He fell in love with Mike Miller and there it is."

Nuggets guard interests Magic

Jerry Brewer / Orlando Sentinel

Team would bust tax level in effort to keep Arenas

Brad Weinstein / San Francisco Chronicle

Babcock apologizes for misperception

Michael Lee / Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Point about Baker is made bluntly

Peter May / Boston Globe

Picture darkens for MacCulloch

Ashley McGeachy Fox / Philadelphia Inquirer

[KB21]

In reply to:

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Atlanta Hawks: Talk about your revisionist history. Two days after the trade deadline passed, GM Pete Babcock apologized to his players for the perception that there was a fire sale in Atlanta. "We weren't shopping players around," Babcock told the Atlanta Journal Constitution. "I told the players, 'I'm sorry if you felt [the trade rumors were] distracting to you and made it hard for you to concentrate on playing, but we all get paid for the aggravation of all of this.' We're all in the business of trying to improve our teams, and we try to be open with our guys and say everybody is available every day. It doesn't mean that we were trying to trade every player. But we're trying to get better. Any team that doesn't say that isn't being true to their players." That contradicts reports from numerous GMs who claim that everyone in Atlanta was available.

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ESPN just can't stand that they were DEAD WRONG in thinking the Hawks were going to deal every good player they have. They still insinuate that the Hawks will try to move Shareef Abdur-Rahim this summer. They won't. Shareef is a keeper and a guy they are going to attempt to build the team around. Jason Terry may be dealt, but I think its more likely that he will sign a 1 year tender deal with the Hawks.

[mrhonline]

I think it all depends on the "non-player" moves the Hawks this summer...A new coach may demand new players...

[cyman3]

the media did hype up the hawks trade rumors... blame it on them

[Jamil]

In reply to:

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Shareef is a keeper and a guy they are going to attempt to build the team around.

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That would be a mistake. You don't build around a maximum-salaried loser who doesn't bring out the fans.