Random BK thoughts

[GoDawgs21]

I love on this board the wide range of BK bashing. I dont agree with everything he has done, but I always at least stick up for the fact we haven't had catastrophic bust like other teams, and feel that as a talent evaluator BK is very compitent. We may not get the best need, but we get a valuable player in every draft.

The personal opinons of many on this board make me laugh as if you have the inside information on everything that is going on.

I recently was looking at the Draft home page on ESPN and came across Hollinger's redrafts. This is Hollinger using his statistical formulas that he covets to go back and redraft according to production. Granted this was done a year ago, which I think hurts Marvin, but helps Chill.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2006/n...ge=redraft/2005

Everyone whips BK for his picks but taking a quick look....

from the 2005 draft:

Marvin was drafted 2nd, and is picked at 6 in the redraft

from 2004:

Smith was drafted at 17, reforcasted at 4

Chill was taken at 6 reforcasted to 7 (Iggy is 8th due to lack of reb vs Chills)

from 2003:

Diaw was taken 21st, but is now rated at 6.

So in 3 drafts players taken at 2,17,6,21 are respectfully now in hindsight valued at 6,4,7,6 in their draft classes.

I would say that is a very good indicator of talent. Only one player would be taken lower then where they were drafted in Marvin. This being sad everyone knows Marvin was a project and it would be until this year that he would most likely have an impact.

While you may not like the picks BK has made you can't say he hasn't gotten value out of the draft

[TexasPete]

It is 10x harder to draft a bust at 2, 5, and 6. The odds against drafting a total bust go down substantially drafting where he does every year. And this year at 3 he is likely not to draft a bust.

But he also never gets it right with the obviously better players that he passes that usually win rookie of the year. Stop defending this nonsense. He hasn't done anything all that great in the lottery and his FA signings of an injured Claxton and BLOW WRIGHT have been a joke.

Claxton wasn't even the right PG if he didn't have injuries. A brick shooting, non-distributing PG? No thanks.

BK sucks. Move on.

[archie_otu]

Here is a breakdown of BK's last 5 drafts assuming we draft Horford:

2007 1st round Al Horford (PF/C)

2006 1st round Sheldon Williams (PF/C) 2006 2nd round Solomon Jones (PF)

2005 1st round Marvin Williams (SF/FF)

2004 1st round Josh Childress(SF) 2004 1st round Josh Smith (SF/PF) 2004 2nd round Donta Smith (SF) (has that ever happened before, has 3 small forwards ever gotten picked in the same draft by the same team)

2003 1st round Boris Diaw (SF)

That’s 8 forwards picked in the last 5 drafts…in the last 5 drafts, his first pick was a forward…what is his infatuation with forwards…can someone PLEASE explain?

[AHF]

This argument looks better than it is since you should expect Shelden to be below #5 in a redraft. That said, it is probably the best argument for BK as a GM.

However, I still struggle with:

Childress, Deng, Iggy

Marvin, Deron, Paul

Shelden, Roy, Foye

To take this team to the next level, it would be better to hit on a superstar and bust on a lottery pick than it would be to get two solid but non-difference makers with those lottery picks.

[AHF]

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in the last 5 drafts, his first pick was a forward…what is his infatuation with forwards…can someone PLEASE explain?

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Go back to his last two drafts in Memphis:

Shelden Williams, Marvin Williams, Josh Childress, Josh Smith, Boris Diaw, Pau Gasol, Shane Battier, Stromile Swift...

[GoDawgs21]

TP so if your theory is right and it's almost impossible to mess up a top pick please help me with this..

Gordon 3rd overall.... was redrafted at 10

Shaun Livingston at 4 now is rated 12th

Should I start with Arrojo, Darko, or Jarvis Hayes in the top 10.............

I'm not defending BK im just balancing out the people that go off the deep end to bash him. While he may not be doing the best GM'ing job in the world when you look at what he has done from what he was given it's not all that bad as some make it out to be

[GoDawgs21]

HF, so if you are willing to conside the drafting is a 6 or 7 based on a scale of 10, considering even most second rd picks BK has made are valuable NBA players. But your right drafting isnt the only thing.

So lets review trades:

Jon Barry for T Lue, I'd say that was a win for us.

Diaw and a late 2008 draft pick for JJ, ummmmmmmm Diaw and what may be a 13 or 14th pick 3 years after the deal for an ALL-Star, yep he really got had there.

Al Harrington for the 11th pick, so how is Ind doing with Murphy??? We would be in there shoes, no pick and with his contract so large for 4 yrs no room for FA, so all of you wanting Law or Critt could get used to Lue and Speedy with no hope of changing that had we gone that route. Note this was the only other solid offer reported. So we would have another F with a huge deal, and you thought we were loaded at F as is imagine Murphy in the mix now.

Rasheed who was a FA and was most assuredly not resigning for 17th pick. I'll take that

JT for Tione, ok you got me on this one. But BK was trying to shake things up, but this was just not working out

While some of the early trades, JT, Theo, Rahim, may be iffy it was amazing that BK was able to get rid of those contracts at all. We were a 40 win team with no salary cap room and may have to take a little bit less then market value to move some contracts. While they may not have been idle they werent rapings.

Oh and just for fun, Pau Gasol for Rahim.

So please tell me were BK got completely raped on a trade. You can walk blindly and follow the popular masses, and disagree with his drafting, but honestly BK and his trades have worked out for the most part.

I am really not trying to be a BK hugger, I just dont get how people think he is the devil brought back to life. There isn't a GM in the league that wouldn't jump to come in and take the team BK has, a young superstar in JJ, all young talent that is valued by other teams to trade with, and a reasonable amount of cap space. Beside the owner situation it is a pretty sweet foundation Bk has set up.

[AHF]

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TP so if your theory is right and it's almost impossible to mess up a top pick please help me with this..

Gordon 3rd overall.... was redrafted at 10

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Anyuone should be willing to admit it is possible to mess up any pick or for any pick to bust (ala Jay Williams or Len Bias if nothing else).

Gordon obviously was not a bad pick for the Bulls. Not sure that example helps too much since Gordon has pretty much fulfilled expectations.

Livingston obviously has injury problems. The others you mentioned are legit busts, although with his age and size people will continue to have hope for Darko.

[TexasPete]

Over the last 5 years I'm willing to bet that the percentage of top 6 busts is really low.

If you go back 5 years it is hard to find a total bust in the top 6. Yet BK gets credit for not drafting a bust?

The bigger question is how can he not have gotten the best player one time?

[txsting]

That's a fair way to look at it. It would have been far worse to waste first round picks on guys who flame out of the league or completely suck (DerMarr, Bowdler, Glover, McLeod, Gray et al).

Let's review:

BK didn't always do the best that he could have done, but he didn't have hindsight to rely on at the time. At least we got some quality, and now is hopefully the time that we cash in on stockpiled talent, perhaps in the form of a big trade.

On BK's drafts:

Shelden, when his draft is reranked, will drop significantly, probably to the high teens (~#10-#15). That is the worst mistake BK made, and probably one that you didn't need hindsight in order to pick a more valuable player. Even so, Shelden will be a quality player in this league and will retain some value.

On second rounders, our high 2nds have been a mixed bag (Salim/Solo ok, Ivey/Hansen/Donta not so good), certainly no huge finds. Our low-mid seconds have not panned out, but that is the common case for drafting there. I would have liked to have seen BK come up with at least one gem considering he's had 5 top 10 picks in the second round now. That would support a case for BK's talent evaulation ability. Maybe Solo will be that guy, we don't know yet.

On BK's trades and FA's:

BK has also largely avoided reaching for high priced free agents or trades that would sap our resources. Craig Claxton is the worst move that he has made - but that move at least seemed promising at the time. It totally blew up in his face, but no one could have predicted a career-worst season for Claxton. Other moves that you can pan include a second rounder for AJ, signing Lo. The Terry trade didn't work out well either - 'Toine was not a good fit. 'Toine ended up moved for another first rounder that became part of the JJ deal. The SNT of Jax for Harrington was a great move because all thought that Jax was just going to walk and we expected to get nothing in return.

Give BK big credit for the JJ deal - turned out to be a master stroke, better than even he could have hoped for. I didn't know we were getting a 25PPG scorer and future all star. Getting #11 for Harrington also looks real good (luck involved, i know). Signing Zaza was a very good move. Lue was a good signing.

His early rebuilding efforts were solid - he moved big money in Shareef, Theo, and Dickau for Rasheed, and then turned that into Josh Smith.

On BK's vision:

I'm not impressed. The indictment here is we have yet to win anything, and we've lost a ton of games. We MUST see the improvement, including playoffs, next year. We've been waiting too long for this rebuild - waiting for our young guys to be ready. Well, they should be nearly ready now. I expect another leap from both Marvin and Josh Smith. Add a PG to the mix (even a young one), and we better win at least 42 games.

BK has been very slow to plug obvious roster holes. I know it's hard to make a good deal in today's NBA, but it's not like he hasn't had time. I've been very patient, but with our young players approaching the re-sign time, BK's window is closing. He has to fill the holes given the current capital available (07 draft picks and depth) - because we don't have any more draft picks to count on for awhile.

Overall:

A confusing, mixed bag. We have young talent, an all-star, and we're still under the cap. We have a huge opportunity this offseason. We've missed on the best opportunities thru the draft, but we have found quality depth instead of complete busts (Childress, Shelden). Jury is still out on Marvin.

This will be the fourth season of BK's rebuild (he became GM in spring of 2003). It is now time to produce. We need to plug at least one roster hole (PG), and have a promising 2007 season. If we get into the playoffs, hopefully by playing .500 ball or better, I would have to give BK a passing grade (C, maybe better if on-court performance warrants). Otherwise, I think the gig is up.

[Packfill]

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I love on this board the wide range of BK bashing. I dont agree with everything he has done, but I always at least stick up for the fact we haven't had catastrophic bust like other teams, and feel that as a talent evaluator BK is very compitent. We may not get the best need, but we get a valuable player in every draft.

The personal opinons of many on this board make me laugh as if you have the inside information on everything that is going on.

I recently was looking at the Draft home page on ESPN and came across Hollinger's redrafts. This is Hollinger using his statistical formulas that he covets to go back and redraft according to production. Granted this was done a year ago, which I think hurts Marvin, but helps Chill.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2006/n...ge=redraft/2005

Everyone whips BK for his picks but taking a quick look....

from the 2005 draft:

Marvin was drafted 2nd, and is picked at 6 in the redraft

from 2004:

Smith was drafted at 17, reforcasted at 4

Chill was taken at 6 reforcasted to 7 (Iggy is 8th due to lack of reb vs Chills)

from 2003:

Diaw was taken 21st, but is now rated at 6.

So in 3 drafts players taken at 2,17,6,21 are respectfully now in hindsight valued at 6,4,7,6 in their draft classes.

I would say that is a very good indicator of talent. Only one player would be taken lower then where they were drafted in Marvin. This being sad everyone knows Marvin was a project and it would be until this year that he would most likely have an impact.

While you may not like the picks BK has made you can't say he hasn't gotten value out of the draft

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You realize of course that those rankings are a year old.

How else would you explain Deron Williams being ranked lower then Marvin. It also of course does not factor in the big years turned in by 3rd year players such as Deng, Igoudala, Jefferson, etc.

It should be interesting to see the rankings when he updates them in a few weeks.

[GoDawgs21]

I completly agree. I'm by no means giving BK an A + grade. I feel like you a C is warrented and this is the make or break year injuries or no injuries.

I just wanted to try and even out and shed some light on the other side of the argument.

It seemed in the past year there has been a lot of Fordism going on. No matter what happened even if it was the posters original plan some how afterwards it was completely wrong.

I did also note that those rankings were a year old and that helped Chill, but it probably hurt Marvin with his strong finish last year.

[exodus]

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The bigger question is how can he not have gotten the best player one time?

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The even bigger question is how can he not have gotten the SECOND best player one time with 3 top 6 picks? That takes special talent of the short bus kind.

[TexasPete]

He has taken 8 straight (soon to be 9) forwards in the 1st round. That is truly an accomplishment.

That is a record that no self respecting GM could ever touch.

[GoDawgs21]

Your right this is his fifth season HF.

'03 -'04 we might has well have been an expansion team with what we had to clean up from Babcock

'04 -'05 first year with his players

'05 -'06 youngest team in the NBA by almost 2.5 yrs

'06 -'07 still the youngest team, in which our projected opening night lineup started a total of 4 games as a unit, and yet still managed to improve on the previous year

so was your plan to come in blow up a team over the cap with aging players, somehow get younger and win at the same time???????? Its all about patience if you cant see how much better this team is off now then it was 5 years ago you are crazy. Im not saying it couldnt have been better with this move or that, but BK has taken a job NOBODY wanted with a old, capped out, team at 36 wins and turned into a young team that has cap room and a great opportunity to make a huge step this year.

Just throwing this ??? out there. How much better are the Cavs then the Hawks? The team that represented the East this year in the finals. If I asked you blindly to estimate how many games better that team with only one true player on it is then the Hawks, 5, 10??? So how far off are we really??????

[Guest Walter]

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To take this team to the next level, it would be better to hit on a superstar and bust on a lottery pick than it would be to get two solid but non-difference makers with those lottery picks.

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Amen, Who wouldn't prefer Deron and "bust" (I can't even think of a top 8 bust, in these years...at least not one more than SW) than MW/SW? Getting the 3rd worst possible prospect in 3 consecutive drafts and missing out on 2 consecutive ROY...well, defending that is about as dumb as it gets.

W

[AHF]

Go with Patrick O'Bryant, Saer Sene or Hilton Armstrong who were the next 3 big men taken after Shelden for your bust pick. Deron Williams & O'Bryant for Marvin & Shelden.

[txsting]

I can see the logic in this idea - preferring one HR and one strikeout to a couple of singles or doubles.

BK has gotten lucky though - think about this. If you consistently make picks that are not the best player to help you right away - a side effect of that is that you get more high draft picks. You end up winning less games while you wait for development, thereby insuring more high draft picks. I'm QUITE certain this was not BK's intention, but here we are, all those picks taken, forwards stockpiled, and we STILL have two more high picks! By all rights, this team should NOT be in the position we are in. Now it's time to get players who can help soon, and that's why all the talk about veterans and trades - i do think BK understand this. Even if it is to save his own hide.

All this fumbling in the dark has actually, somehow, luckily, put the team and BK in a very good situation. BK does indeed have a one last shot at redemption. Without #3 and #11 (a plausible scenario), BK would be completely cooked.

[TheDude]

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Oh excuse me, I forgot how drafting was the only aspect of being a GM. Now let me change my whole stance on BK!

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i think the moral of the story is that although BK makes mistakes, people are too quick to find the negative on every pick and even though it's not really a mistake, because it's BK, it is deemed a mistake...

as opposed to rationally looking at every move and the whys and whats of each one....if it was not for the Paul-Marvin thing, it wouldnt be anywhere close to what it is now as far as bashing him....

it's like it's the cool thing to do or something.