The top 10 ... stars/busts ... anaylsis 02-06

[Admin]

*I don't claim to be a statistician and any of these numbers I am throwing around could be completely wrong. I'm just having a little fun with the numbers.

I wanted to look at a comparison from the past 5 years as to which players have become stars (made a large positive impact on their team) as opposed to busts (players who have not nearly lived up to their hype) from the past 5 years in the top 10 picks.

Here are my busts.

2006 - pick 9 - Patrick O'Bryant

2006 - pick 10 - Saer Sene

2005 - pick 6 - Martell Webster

2005 - pick 9 - Ike Diogu

2004 - pick 4 - Shaun Livingston

2004 - pick 8 - Rafael Araujo

2004 - pick 10 - Luke Jackson

2003 - pick 2 - Darko Milicic

2003 - pick 9 - Mike Sweetney

2003 - pick 10 - Jarvis Hayes

2002 - pick 2 - Jay Williams

2002 - pick 3 - Mike Dunleavy

2002 - pick 5 - Nickoloz Tskitishvili

2002 - pick 6 - Dajuan Wagner

So, out of 50 potential picks in the top 10 over the last 5 years I consider 14 of them to be busts, or 28%. Only 5 out of 25 of those were top 5 picks, or 20%. It could be argued that Dunleavy isn't a bust, but IMO he hasn't lived up to his draft status at all.

Now, I want to look at the stars.

2006 - pick 6 - Brandon Roy (after Hawk pick)

2005 - pick 3 - Deron Williams (after Hawk pick)

2005 - pick 4 - Chris Paul (after Hawk pick)

2004 - pick 1 - Dwight Howard

2004 - pick 2 - Emeka Okafor

2004 - pick 3 - Ben Gordon

2004 - pick 7 - Luol Deng (after Hawk pick)

2004 - pick 9 - Andre Iguodala (after Hawk pick)

It could be argued that the stats of Deng and Iggy are not light years better than Childress, however their impact on their teams has been much more significant, which is why I list them as star players.

2003 - pick 1 - Lebron James

2003 - pick 3 - Carmelo Anthony

2003 - pick 4 - Chris Bosh

2003 - pick 5 - Dwayne Wade

2003 - pick 7 - Kirk Hinrich

2002 - pick 1 - Yao Ming

2002 - pick 4 - Drew Gooden

2002 - pick 9 - Amare Stoudemire

2002 - pick 10 - Caron Butler

This list shows that out of 50 possible picks in the top 10 over the last 5 years 17 players have made a large impact on their team in a positive way, or 34%.

Looking at those numbers 28% busts / 34% stars, that leaves 38% to be solid contributors who could still go either way in the coming years.

In those 5 years we have had 3 top 10 picks at 2, 5, and 6. While none of them have become star players, none of them are busts either. That means that with a 34% chance to draft a star player we have failed 3 times. On the flip side, with a 28% chance to draft a bust we have avoided that 3 times.

Finally, this year we have essentially 2 top 10 picks (giving a little wiggle room since the 11th pick is so close). If we draft 2 stars, we will have 2 stars out of 5 picks, or 40% success rate. If we draft 2 duds, that will give us 2 duds out of 5 picks, or a 40% failure rate. More than likely we will draft 1 star and 1 dud, which means 1 star out of 5 picks, or 20% success rate and 20% failure rate. That means BK will be 14% below the league average for selecting a star and 8% above league average for not drafting a dud. 60% of our picks would be solid contributors, which is 22% above the league average.

So there you have it. BK is 14% below the best GMs, 8% above the worst GMs, and 22% above the average GMs ... or something like that

[jaywalker72]

DF....Nice work! The numbers really don't mean much, except for the one after "Wins", but the article is entertaining and fun to read.

Thanks!

[exodus]

I am not buying some of your bust picks. Injuries aren't a reason to label someone a bust.

[Admin]

Why not? If those players don't become a success, what do you call them? If Childress hurts his feet again this year and never plays again, is he a bust? Hell yes. Dermarr Johnson may or may not have been a bust had he not broken his neck, but he did and was a major bust.

Bottom line is that it doesn't matter why you succeed or fail, it's only which you do.

[jerrywest]

A lot of subjective definitions and thresholds, which are normal in this kind of analysis. Get ready for bulldogs to come out. Fun read. Thanks.

[Admin]

All in good fun

[exodus]

So if Jordan had been in an accident and it ruined his career he would have been a bust. OK

A GM can't control injuries so someone like Jay getting in an accident doesn't mean they drafted a bust. It just means they got unlucky.

Boston drafted Len Bias but i never heard anyone call him a bust.

[GoDawgs21]

This is what I love about this board, its either white or black. I said in my post that i wasnt defending Bk just presenting the other side of the coin. I agree with the post. As my assesment mentioned in the other thread was that he is rated as a "C" GM. Pending on this years performance. I think Dolfan is right on.

My only quam with this is the % of players picked in top 5 is a touch skewed. It wasn't like BK had a pick in 2003 when literally all were can't miss talents. Say he has a top 5 pick in 2003 and not in 2004 that drastically changes everything. I agree it helps to show who went after, but I think hurts when Lebron is statistaclly equal to Andrew Bogut. Or Wade, Melo, Bosh are even with the following years Marvin, Paul, Deron.

Also Gordon scores alot, but if im not mistaken didn't he come off the bench so he could be the focus of the offense, but would remain in the game to finish. So if Chill and Shell at 5 and 6 are bad picks because they aren't starters what is that for Gordon at 3?

[TexasPete]

Totally agree about injuries and also you can't label a starter like Dunleavy a bust unless you view Childress as a bust. Dunleavy started on better teams than Chill came off the bench for.

Also, Sene and O'Bryant dont look good now but they were both project big men and the jury is still out.

Frankly, some of the busts on the list may not be great but calling them a bust is harsh. Luke Jackson and Arruajo are busts. Skita was a bust.

[Admin]

I'm not sure why you are having such a hard time understanding this. If you fail, you fail. It doesn't matter who the player is. If he gets hurt before he ever becomes a star or never becomes a star post injury or even an average player then yes, that player is a bust. It doesn't matter what the reason is.

[roezag]

I realize this post was all in good fun, but I feel the need to stand up for Martell Webster. I compared his first two years to Kobe and McGrady and the first year, they were all around 7 ppg. The second year, Kobe jumped to 15, McGrady to only 9, and Webster stayed at 7. So not quite as good, but comparable. Year 3 should be a big jump if he is going to prove his worth. One other comparison would be Shelden, who averaged 1.5 ppg less than Webster. Granted he was a rookie, but he spent 4 years at Duke, whereas Webster would have only been a Sophmore this past year. Interesting that he would not be considered a bust, but Webster would be.

[TexasPete]

Dolfan, if you are grading a GM based on his picks you cannot include injuries. Those are things out of anyone's control.

A guy that gets hurt is just bad luck. If we take Yi and he gets hurt it doesn't mean he was a bad pick.

[exodus]

Quote:

---

Dolfan, if you are grading a GM based on his picks you cannot include injuries. Those are things out of anyone's control.

A guy that gets hurt is just bad luck. If we take Yi and he gets hurt it doesn't mean he was a bad pick.

---

Exactly

[atlien110]

Quote:

---

Quote:

---

Dolfan, if you are grading a GM based on his picks you cannot include injuries. Those are things out of anyone's control.

A guy that gets hurt is just bad luck. If we take Yi and he gets hurt it doesn't mean he was a bad pick.

---

Exactly

---

agreed.

that demarr johnson comparison is way off base. he sucked horribly before he hurt his neck and the injury didn't help. that pick had bust written all over it!

busts are players that get the chance and don't live up to billing. i.e. kwame, olowakandi, eddie curry (to a certain extent), araujo, kris humphries, darko, mike sweetney, jarvis hayes, tshikwhatever, dejuan wagner, etc....

[Sothron]

I agree, we will never know how some of those guys would have turned out if they had not been injured. Len Bias was a beast in college and RIP later we never know how he would have done in the NBA. Using these definitions that pick would be a bust. You can not exclude injuries as a reason why someone is a bust.

[beav]

Quote:

---

I realize this post was all in good fun, but I feel the need to stand up for Martell Webster. I compared his first two years to Kobe and McGrady and the first year, they were all around 7 ppg. The second year, Kobe jumped to 15, McGrady to only 9, and Webster stayed at 7. So not quite as good, but comparable. Year 3 should be a big jump if he is going to prove his worth. One other comparison would be Shelden, who averaged 1.5 ppg less than Webster. Granted he was a rookie, but he spent 4 years at Duke, whereas Webster would have only been a Sophmore this past year. Interesting that he would not be considered a bust, but Webster would be.

---

I hope that you're right!!!!

[TexasPete]

Webster beat us his rookie year, he caught fire. The guy can and will be effective over the long haul. He has a great stroke.

[exodus]

Quote:

---

I agree, we will never know how some of those guys would have turned out if they had not been injured. Len Bias was a beast in college and RIP later we never know how he would have done in the NBA. Using these definitions that pick would be a bust. You can not exclude injuries as a reason why someone is a bust.

---

At the gym about a month ago i saw something i had never seen before. A guy was wearing a Len Bias Celtics jersey. I wonder how many of those are out there.

I was on the golf team at U of Md at the time Bias died. The next day the heartless guys working at the range put up the front page picture of Bias from the local paper up on the wall. Over the top of the page they wrote "Coke is it". Very cold.

[Admin]

It's pretty damn black and white.

A). The draft pick turns out to be a productive player or a valuable trade asset.

B). The draft pick turns out to greatly under perform relative to their draft position.

That's all there is. Success or failure. IT DOES NOT MATTER how they get to whichever point they end up at. Whether you get injured or just plain don't cut it in the league the end result is that your team could have gotten more production from another player, thus making you a bust. Really, it's not that difficult of a concept to grasp.

[jerrywest]

Quote:

---

It's pretty damn black and white.

A). The draft pick turns out to be a productive player or a valuable trade asset.

B). The draft pick turns out to greatly under perform relative to their draft position.

That's all there is. Success or failure. IT DOES NOT MATTER how they get to whichever point they end up at. Whether you get injured or just plain don't cut it in the league the end result is that your team could have gotten more production from another player, thus making you a bust. Really, it's not that difficult of a concept to grasp.

---

What would you call BK if Roy's foot problem becomes a major issue for the rest of his career?