Starting Pitching Braves Achilles Heel

[KB21]

We had a discussion on this during the Teixeira trade talk, and I wanted to bring this back up after last night. The last 3 games the Braves have played show why this team needed and tried to make a deal for a 3rd starter. I just don't think the Braves will be able to make a run with the starting rotation as is. It's hard to do that when your bullpen has to pitch 3-4 innings, if not more, every 3rd, 4th, and 5th day. As of right now, John Smoltz and Tim Hudson are the only starters on the team that can be counted on to eat up some innings. Chuck is a 5-6 inning pitcher max right now. Same with Buddy. The 5th starter's spot is completely up in the air right now, with Lance Cormier the most likely candidate along with Oscar Villareal.

Unfortunately, a deal was unable to be made at the deadline, so the Braves run to the World Series may have to wait till next year after the Braves can use Edgar Renteria to get them a top of the rotation starter this offseason, possibly a pitcher like Javier Vasquez whom Bobby Cox has always liked. Even with that, they might also need to make another deal to get a guy who will be an innings eater in the mix.

[drzachary]

I know I was crossing my fingers for Bronson!

[drzachary]

I realllly have hope for Soriano as a starter. I don't think you can convert a bullpen guy into a starter in August though. It seems to me that he has been tired and leaving stuff flat all the time lately, and a starter's routine may leave less fatigue.

[AHF]

It sounds like no starting pitchers were really available at the break other than the loser Matt Morris/Kyle Lohse types. Remember, we offered Edgar for Garland and couldn't even get that done. I am skeptical whether we will be able to deal him for Vazquez this offseason.

[chillzatl]

I wanted to not believe it, but damn if it isn't true. We needed that extra starter. Despite James outting I still have faith that he can be good enough though, and Carlysle.

I do still believe we have the muscle to at least take the wild card, if not the division, and once we get into the playoffs I think we can go pretty deep with our two aces. Though we might not be WS material, but hey, you never can tell. The hot team has gotten there more often of late than the better team on paper.

[CBAreject]

I said in an earlier post that we are giving up every 5th game. Chuck James and Carlyle are more than adequate with an offense like ours and a bullpen like ours. However, a team cannot hide a horrible starter, even at the 5th spot.

We are not only forfeiting each game pitched by our 5th starter, but we are also exhausting our bullpen in each of those games. If we had another Carlyle-level starter to pitch in the 5th spot, that would be fine. The game last night was horrible, not because we lost (as games will be lost from time to time), but because we pitched Ron Mahay 3 innings and used every other relief pitcher (some multiple innings) in doing so. We would've been better off just forfeiting the game at the outset and saving our arms.

We don't need an ace to pitch 5th. All I'm talking about here people is a guy who can pitch 6 innings. I don't care if his ERA is 7. Pitch 6 innings and give up 4-5 runs. That's all I want from you, just get throught those damn innings and save our relievers.

Villareal is very valuable to our bullpen, but that's mostly because he has to mop up for our 5th guy every time. Why not just let him start every 5th day. You'll probably get 5 innings out of him. If necessary, this team should play with a short bench until September 1st to bring up 1 more reliever. We will need at least 10 innings of relief on days 3, 4, and 5 of our rotation. Being short 1 pinch hitter is unlikely to cost us a game in the span of a month. Having an extra pitcher could prove invaluable if he saves another from exhaustion.

So here's the plan again:

1) Villareal to 5th spot

2) Demote Reyes

3) Promote Devine

[drzachary]

Interestingly, a popular theory now about why the Braves won "only" one W.S. is that the budgetary assets were spent on having great 4/5 starters instead of great bullpens/lineups, and the 4/5 starters hardly play any role in the postseason. They play a big role in getting there, obviously!

[CBAreject]

I have long been a supporter of that theory. Here's the thing. You don't need Denny Neagle as your 5th starter. He's much too good. You DO, however, need an adequate starter in every slot.

Braves were usually built on a balanced and deep rotation. What you want is a top heavy rotation with a dominant 1/2 and a capable 3, 4, and just an adequate 5. Maddux, as good as he was, generally was not a shut-down starter in the playoffs. Only Smoltz was truly dominant like a Shilling, Randy Johnson, or Kevin Brown.

I don't think the problem with the money spent on 4/5 hurt the lineup that much. I do believe it hurt our bullpens tremendously. Essentially, here is my view of what cost us championships:

1) Weak bullpens

2) Non-dominant 1/2 starters (Glavine/Maddux)

3) Lack of patience and situational hitting (low OBP free swingers who got themselves out)

I believe #3 is too often overlooked. Schuerholz has been changing his philosophy over the last 8 years on this (as influenced by Billy Beane). In the 90's, though, we were a 3-run homer team, a lineup built on mistake hitters who struggled to score against pitchers who made few mistakes. The dominant Yankees were built on patient hitters who took what pitchers gave them, worked counts, and tired the starters. The current lineup is far better suited for postseason play, and I think this reflects an organizational change in philosophy. Years before, Francouer would've been encouraged to "remain aggressive". Now, he is urged to be more patient. He gave up 10 home runs to increase his BA and OBP, and as a result, he's far more effective.

[Johann]

Andruw hasn't gotten the memo...