Player pairs: Some interesting finds.

[mrhonline]

Players Pairs - 82games.com

On a per game basis:

1. Josh Smith was significantly more successful when paired with Salim (51%) over AJ (32%).

2. Speedy was much more successful with Josh Smith (43%) than with Marvin Williams (26%).

3. Lue plays best with Salim Stoudamire (of all people), and it's not even close.

4. JJ played more consistently with Marvin (53%) than Smith (42%).

5. Zaza Pachulia and Josh Childress don't care whom they play with, they're the same player no matter what. (Which is why they should come off the bench IMO).

6. Shelden actually looked decent with Marvin on the court.

So, it sounds like you should rest Smith when you can have both JJ and Marvin on the floor. Then, when you bring Smith back in, grab Salim or Law to come with him.

[Diesel]

By the numbers, I would guess that Chillz is the most complimentary player we have!

[mrhonline]

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By the numbers, I would guess that Chillz is the most complimentary player we have!

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Yes, Childress is definitely this team's glue. I was also surprised to see how consistently Zaza performs with the various young parts. I think that bodes well for the Hawks as they try to figure out where Shelden & Horford fit.

[mrhonline]

Based on W%, the top5 player pairs for the Hawks (min. 500 minutes):

1. Smith/Stoudamire (56%)

2. J.Johnson/M. Williams (53%)

3. J. Johnson/Pachulia (49%)

4. J.Johnson/Childress (48%)

5. Claxton/Pachulia (45%)

The 5 worst:

1. M.Williams/Claxton (26%)

2. Lue/S. Williams (30%)

3. Lue/J.Johnson (31%)

4. Smith/Wright (31%)

5. A.Johnson/Smith (32%)

[mrhonline]

Based on Net team +/- per 100 possessions (500 minutes min.):

1. Stoudamire/Smith (+1.2)

2. Childress/M.Williams (+0.3)

3. J.Johnson/Childress (-0.2)

4. Childress/Pachulia (-0.2)

5. J.Johnson/Pachulia (-0.8)

***Note that the Hawks had only 2 player pairs that were above league average. That sucks.***

The 5 worst:

1. J.Johnson/S.Williams (-10.3)

2. Claxton/M.Williams (-8.9)

3. Childress/S.Williams (-8.8)

4. Wright/M.Williams (-8.2)

5. Wright/Smith (-8.1)

***I put more faith in this number because it shows which player pairs best benefit the team overall.***

[Guest Walter]

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***Note that the Hawks had only 2 player pairs that were above league average. That sucks.***

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This is what I've been mentioning about the league's top 10 team's top 2 players ALL having a significantly higher PER than our top two players. We really needed a superstar out of this draft and it's little secret I don't think we got one (while also getting a prototypical NBA Pf).

Good stats.

W

[mrhonline]

Based solely on how well the team played with them in the lineup, here's your Hawks' ranking:

Bigs

Pachulia -2.4

Wright -6.4

S.Williams -7.5

Jones -12.7

Wings

Childress -2.5

J.Johnson -3.6

Smith -3.8

M.Williams -4.3

Smalls

A.Johnson -3.8

Stoudamire -4.5

Claxton -5.3

Lue -6.1

Now, here's a more important ranking IMO. How well did they play with Joe Johnson? (This is one of the things I'd use to determine PT, if it were up to me):

Bigs

Pachulia -0.8

Wright -3.6

S.Williams -10.3

Jones -18

Wings

Childress -0.2

Smith -1.1

M.Williams -1.6

Smalls

A.Johnson -1.5

Claxton -2.7

Lue -3.4

Stoudamire -4.8

***The six worst players (who weren't FA's) on the Hawks last season were either big men or small guards. Good thing the Hawks drafted the "most NBA-ready" small guard and big man available in the draft.***

[mrhonline]

Here's the "JJ rankings" based on Win%. I'm beginning to think this is more reliable:

Bigs

Pachulia 49%

S.Williams 38%

Wright 35%

Jones 18%

Wings

M.Williams 53%

Childress 48%

Smith 42%

Smalls

Stoudamire 48%

Claxton 40%

A.Johnson 33%

Lue 31%

My conclusions from all this crap (some are obvious):

1. Marvin should start, but Childress should get plenty of minutes.

2. Claxton is the starter, and Law should battle AJ for backup minutes.

3. Smith and Stoudamire should play together when JJ's not on the court.

4. Shelden and Horford will battle for backup minutes at both the 4 and 5,

and I suspect Horford will quickly surpass Shellhead.

5. Tyronn Lue should be traded to show LoWright that suckiness won't be tolerated.

My prediction of the minutes breakdown by February (assuming health):

Claxton - 28 (It's an odd year, he'll be "healthy")

JJ - 40 (Not an All-Star, b/c of others' improvement)

Marvin - 34 (Improved enough to shut people up)

Smith - 38 (National buzz)

Pachulia - 28 (He's just better than Shelden at this point)

Childress - 26 (He won't be happy with this, and won't re-sign)

Law - 16 (Need his scoring vs. Claxton's D)

Horford - 21 (He's the Yin to Zaza's Yang)

Shelden - 9 (He'll be pissed, and be traded when Smith is re-signed)

That leaves these guys with no playing time unless there's an injury:

Salim (disgruntled), AJ (regretful), Lue (playa), Wright(Asst. Coach), Jones (NBDL)

[TroyMcClure]

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***Note that the Hawks had only 2 player pairs that were above league average. That sucks.***

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This is what I've been mentioning about the league's top 10 team's top 2 players ALL having a significantly higher PER than our top two players. We really needed a superstar out of this draft and it's little secret I don't think we got one (while also getting a prototypical NBA Pf).

Good stats.

W

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Look at the numbers to the far right. Those are the ones that matter.

Player pair team leaders in 2006-07 Team Player1 Player2 +/- Off/g Def/g Net48

ATL Pachulia Wright +33 103.7 81.2 +22.5

BOS Rondo Szczerbiak +66 105.4 90.4 +15.1

CHA Felton Herrmann +81 102.6 95.5 +7.1

CHI Gordon Deng +396 102.5 93.8 +8.7

CLE Hughes James +302 98.1 91.4 +6.7

DAL Harris Nowitzki +532 106.3 90.4 +15.8

DEN JR.Smith Camby +127 111.2 104.4 +6.8

DET Billups Prince +328 98.6 91.5 +7.1

GSW Davis Richardson +238 113.7 100.6 +13.0

HOU Alston McGrady +469 101.5 90.6 +11.0

IND Jackson O'Neal +58 96.6 93.4 +3.1

LAC Thomas Brand +194 100.3 93.8 +6.6

LAL Odom Brown +124 111.2 101.0 +10.3

MEM Lowry Miller +79 115.3 80.4 +34.9

MIA Wade Kapono +145 105.3 97.4 +7.8

MIL Redd Patterson +91 105.2 101.5 +3.7

MIN Smith Garnett +98 97.8 91.4 +6.3

NJN Carter Collins +109 96.0 92.8 +3.1

NOK Paul B.Jackson +83 105.8 99.4 +6.4

NYK Crawford Lee +74 102.1 99.5 +2.7

ORL Turkoglu Howard +128 97.4 94.2 +3.2

PHI Joe.Smith Dalembert +99 100.0 91.3 +8.7

PHO Nash Marion +602 115.0 102.4 +12.6

POR Dickau Outlaw +44 99.5 91.9 +7.6

SAC Bibby Miller +130 105.4 101.2 +4.2

SAS Bowen Duncan +638 99.6 85.4 +14.2

SEA Allen Lewis +84 102.8 99.3 +3.5

TOR Parker Bosh +257 101.8 95.0 +6.7

UTA Williams Harpring +170 106.7 100.4 +6.3

WAS Arenas Butler +191 108.9 104.7 +4.1

Every team in the entire league, except for Portland and Atlanta, had at least one of their star players in the player pair rankings. Same deal last year. I've noted this before. I don't know exactly what it says but it doesn't speak well of Joe or Smoove that they aren't on this list.

BTW, glad you're back Walt!

[mrhonline]

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Every team in the entire league, except for Portland and Atlanta, had at least one of their star players in the player pair rankings. Same deal last year. I've noted this before. I don't know exactly what it says but it doesn't speak well of Joe or Smoove that they aren't on this list.

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No, it's stupid that 82games didn't adjust that list for a minimum # of minute played together. Wright and Pachulia played a whopping 70 minutes together all season. That's called small sample size. (Would anyone really suggest that a Wright/Pachulia frontcourt is a *good* thing?).

In reality, Smith/Stoudamire was the Hawks' best pairing, and JJ was in 3 of the top6 Hawks' pairings. Plus, since the Hawks have so many players of similar ability on the court (e.g., Chill vs. Marvin, Shelden/Wright vs. Pachulia, Lue vs. AJ), their +/- differential is going to be smaller than most teams. Indiana appears to be in the same situation.

[TroyMcClure]

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In reality, Smith/Stoudamire was the Hawks' best pairing, and JJ was in 3 of the top6 Hawks' pairings.

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Actually, we would have the worst pair. No matter if it is Joe or Smoove. Joe has a minus with everyone! Smoove only has a positive with Salim. A whopping 1!

What I'm saying is it really sucks that they would both be at the bottom of the entire league.

[mrhonline]

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Actually, we would have the worst pair.

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It would take me forever to check (by eliminating player pairs with less than 500 minutes), but it wouldn't surprise me.

While some of it is the Hawks' suckiness, team-wide +/- numbers are not as valid when the backup is not much worse than the starter. In Johnson's case, he is both being replaced by one of the best backup 2's in the NBA and getting major minutes on a losing team. That will affect his +/- despite stellar play on his part.

His +/- numbers in Phoenix were good, so you know you have to take multiple things into context.

[Buzzard]

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His +/- numbers in Phoenix were good, so you know you have to take multiple things into context.

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Exactly...the problem is we need one of our young guns to step up and average more than 16 pts a game. Smoove was probably the lowest scoring 2nd leading scorer on any team in the NBA.

And I am not saying this is Smooves fault. It is just a sad fact of our young team. Hopefully someone or possibly two step it up this year. We need at least one 18pt a game 2nd option. And two of those 2nd options to go with JJ would take us to the playoffs on a yearly basis...

I can see JJ, Smoove, MWill, and Acie all everaging at least 16+ PPG one day. Throw in Horford, ZaZa, and Shelden as our big men rotation and I think we have something to smile about...

[T21]

Don't get too hypnotized by all these stats! I understand where you're coming from... and I agree that our team can improve by putting the right team on the floor, maximize potentials and speed up the chemistry... So I'm not saying these stats should't be studied! All I'm saying is that (if studied carefuly) these stats confirm something we all already know!

The keys for success of our team remain better post play and PG position!

Hawks can play inside-out type of B-ball successfuly, with likes of JJ, Acie, Salim and Marvin making perimeter shots, but not without strong inside post presence (hopefully Al can bring some of that)... and running game, where just about everyone on our roster can fly, especialy Smoove, Chillz, Marvin and Al... in order for that to happen', we need a floor general! Either healthy Speedy, or Acie (I hope he'll turn into our floor leader)!

[Diesel]

The Best 5 according to win% based on your site is:

Stoudamire, JJ, Chillz, Smoove and Zaza... or

Claxton, Stoudamire, JJ, Smoove, and Zaza..

Those are from Smoove's Perspective.

From JJ's perspective you have:

Stoudamire, JJ, MWilliams, SMoove, and Zaza. or

Chillz, JJ, MWilliams, Smoove, and Zaza.

if you just took the highest Winning Percentage without forcing JJ/Smoove you have:

Smoove, Stoudamire, JJ, MWilliams.. and I can't find a 5th player to mix with that.

One of the problems is that MWilliams/JSmoove have a 37% winning percentage. That's low.

Strangely enough... The player who we can guarantee wins by is Salim Stoudamire. Does that mean that we play him more when we're winning or his play helps us win?

[Buzzard]

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Strangely enough... The player who we can guarantee wins by is Salim Stoudamire. Does that mean that we play him more when we're winning or his play helps us win?

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Considering the fact that we lack a go to guy as a 2nd scoring option, Salim is probably helping us win when he is hot. Same can probably be said for ZaZa and his being a part of everyone of your posted winning combinations...

Our young starters have to step up this year and not just score, but score at a decent fg% (they have to be a threat in order to draw attention away from JJ). Hopefully Smoove and Marvin will both improve; and a healthy Speedy and rookie Acie will get them all involved in the offense.

Otherwise it is JJ on an island facing dbl and triple teams with the shot clock counting down; and his plus minus stats looking bad again but not because he did not do his part..

[AHF]

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The Best 5 according to win% based on your site is:

Marvin/Josh +51 (w/ JC, JJ, ZP)

Marvin/Josh +31 (w/ AJ, JC, ZP)

Chillz/Josh +20 (w/ SC, JJ, ZP)

Marvin/Josh +18 (w/ JJ, JC, ZP)

Marvin/Shelden +13 (w/ JJ, JC, ZP)

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[mrhonline]

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All I'm saying is that (if studied carefuly) these stats confirm something we all already know!

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All good stats should do that. I do think they reveal some interesting things about the non-wings (e.g., Law already deserves Lue's minutes, Salim plays well with Smith, Pachulia isn't as bad as we think).

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The keys for success of our team remain better post play and PG position!

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Absolutely. I think swapping Wright/Jones for Horford + an improved Shelden will do wonders for the Hawks' interior play on both sides of the ball.

There remains a lot of pressure on the PG's, though. Can Speedy return to form, and will Law play well as his backup? Those questions are going to have to be answered.

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we need a floor general! Either healthy Speedy, or Acie (I hope he'll turn into our floor leader)!

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I sure hope so.

[Diesel]

The numbers also state that Chillz should probably be in the starting lineup. Glue can't be on the bench when you have chemistry problems on the floor.

[mrhonline]

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The numbers also state that Chillz should probably be in the starting lineup. Glue can't be on the bench when you have chemistry problems on the floor.

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The Marvin/JJ combo was just as effective as the Childress/JJ combo, so I don't see how you're justifying that.