We didn't draft Mike Conley because he couldn't shoot the ball?

[mrhonline]

Ask the Grizzlies if they'd rather have Conley or Horford. I have a feeling their answer would be Horford...

[crimedog]

Ask the Grizzlies if they'd rather have Conley or Horford. I have a feeling their answer would be Horford...

How did you come to that conclusion?

Are you basically saying that you like Horford over Conley and you think they would too?

Edited April 7, 2009 by crimedog

[exodus]

Ask the Grizzlies if they'd rather have Conley or Horford. I have a feeling their answer would be Horford...

It probably would given that they don't have Josh Smith at the 4 and they had Lowry at the point. I don't even know who they are starting at the 4.

Edited April 8, 2009 by exodus

[exodus]

Tons of players have had good two month runs and Conley isn't exactly setting the world on fire.

Neither is horford. He has had no competition for time since he has been here. He has had big minutes from day 1 and is showing no signs of improvement. When other starters have been out and the hawks needed more scoring from Horford he hasn't done anything.

Seriously what is Horford doing better this year?

If i had said after the draft that Horford would be averaging only 11 ppg in 33 minutes as a second year player everyone would have accused me of being a hater. Everyone was comparing him to guys like Boozer and Amare around draft time.

Edited April 8, 2009 by exodus

[AtLaS]

Neither is horford. He has had no competition for time since he has been here. He has had big minutes from day 1 and is showing no signs of improvement. When other starters have been out and the hawks needed more scoring from Horford he hasn't done anything.

Seriously what is Horford doing better this year?

If i had said after the draft that Horford would be averaging only 11 ppg in 33 minutes as a second year player everyone would have accused me of being a hater. Everyone was comparing him to guys like Boozer and Amare around draft time.

I'm not sure who was comparing him to those two, because I wasn't. He's still only 22 and on a playoff team where he doesn't get a lot of opportunities to score. If this team sucked he'd be getting the ball a lot more. The players are in two completely different situations. I mean, look what Shelden did the last month of the season when our season was clearly over. Again, don't take that as a comparison to Shelden, but tons of players put up stats on bad teams once given the green light.

And, I think it's a little naive to say Horford has shown zero signs of improvement. His FG% is up, turnovers down, fouls down, assists up, and blocks are up. Obviously he's nowhere near a good scorer, but we need to run the PnR more often with him and Bibby. Boozer/Amare score the majority of their points on the PnR and hitting jumpers. Horford can do that. Regardless, Boozer and Amare are so bad on defense that it somewhat negates their offensive performances anyway.

[exodus]

I'm not sure who was comparing him to those two, because I wasn't. He's still only 22 and on a playoff team where he doesn't get a lot of opportunities to score.

Who do you think is a legit comparison for Horford?

He has had plenty of opportunities to score, especially when other guys have been out. He hasn't delivered. Watching him in the post can be painful at times. He rarely tries to beat anyone off the dribble even though he is faster than almost everyone he faces.

Horford can get an open jumper any time he wants but he usually passes them up. Here lately he hasn't been hitting them when he does take them.

Edited April 9, 2009 by exodus

[AtLaS]

Who do you think is a legit comparison for Horford?

He has had plenty of opportunities to score, especially when other guys have been out. He hasn't delivered. Watching him in the post can be painful at times. He rarely tries to beat anyone off the dribble even though he is faster than almost everyone he faces.

Horford can get an open jumper any time he wants but he usually passes them up. Here lately he hasn't been hitting them when he does take them.

I don't know who's a legit comparison to Horford, he is his own player and will define that for himself.

Last night he took his man off the dribble after a quick sweep of the ball into triple threat position, and scored. Yeah he hasn't been shooting as well lately, but he's still got that jumper and he'll start hitting it more often. Everyone goes through shooting slumps as we've seen with all of our players this year.

Sure, he gets opportunities to score, but not NEAR as many as he would if he was on a sorry lotto team.

[exodus]

I don't know who's a legit comparison to Horford, he is his own player and will define that for himself.

Last night he took his man off the dribble after a quick sweep of the ball into triple threat position, and scored. Yeah he hasn't been shooting as well lately, but he's still got that jumper and he'll start hitting it more often. Everyone goes through shooting slumps as we've seen with all of our players this year.

Sure, he gets opportunities to score, but not NEAR as many as he would if he was on a sorry lotto team.

On a sorry lottery team his man might not be playing 5 feet off him when he is 18 feet away. On a sorry lottery team he might not get matched up man to man against the other team's weakest interior defender which is what's happening now. He never gets doubled in the post because he isnt a threat in the post.

When other guys have been out he hasn't stepped up his scoring at all. He has no 1 on 1 game to speak of.

[AtLaS]

On a sorry lottery team his man might not be playing 5 feet off him when he is 18 feet away. On a sorry lottery team he might not get matched up man to man against the other team's weakest interior defender which is what's happening now. He never gets doubled in the post because he isnt a threat in the post.

When other guys have been out he hasn't stepped up his scoring at all. He has no 1 on 1 game to speak of.

Horford actually does get doubled in the post sometimes. The weakest interior defender is not always guarding Horford.

But whatever, you are convinced that Conley was the better pick. I'll stick to my beliefs. We'll analyze this in the future when Conley isn't playing garbage time.

[exodus]

Horford actually does get doubled in the post sometimes. The weakest interior defender is not always guarding Horford.

But whatever, you are convinced that Conley was the better pick. I'll stick to my beliefs. We'll analyze this in the future when Conley isn't playing garbage time.

LOL @ Horford getting doubled. He can hardly score man to man in the post. The only time he might meet another defender is when he accidentally dives into them with his head down.

If Solo or Zaza is in the game then maybe Horford won't have the weakest defender on him. But at the start of the games he definitely does.

Playing garbage time isn't going to make someone score 18 ppg shooting 57%, 60% from 3 which is what Conley has done in his last 5 games. Playing garbage time didn't do much for Smiths shooting percentages his first few years. He is shooting his career high percentage this year. Ditto Marvin. Marvin's TS% is best among everyone on the team who isn't a center.

[AtLaS]

LOL @ Horford getting doubled. He can hardly score man to man in the post. The only time he might meet another defender is when he accidentally dives into them with his head down.

You can make a joke of it if you want to or ignore it, but Horford actually does see doubles sometimes. Notice I'm not saying all the time. Almost EVERY big man inside sees doubles from time to time.

If Solo or Zaza is in the game then maybe Horford won't have the weakest defender on him. But at the start of the games he definitely does.

So when we play Orlando, Dwight guards Smith and Shard is on Horford? Dalembert guards Smith? I'm guessing Shaq guards Smith? Dampier guards Smith? That is just not true and you know it.

Playing garbage time isn't going to make someone score 18 ppg shooting 57%, 60% from 3 which is what Conley has done in his last 5 games. Playing garbage time didn't do much for Smiths shooting percentages his first few years. He is shooting his career high percentage this year. Ditto Marvin. Marvin's TS% is best among everyone on the team who isn't a center.

Shelden put up dominant numbers in garbage time at the end of the season and he's a much worse offensive player. I will wait until he does it an entire season or for a team who's winning before I start praising him over Horford.

Edited April 9, 2009 by AtLaS

[exodus]

How can you bring Shelden into this argument? Conley is shooting 41.8% from 3 as a second year player. His EFG% on jumpers is 50.1%, the same as Bibby.

Why does playing on a crap team help Conley's percentages when it didn't help Smith's or Marvin's?

If Conley and Horford turn out to be roughly equal as players that means for sure Conley was a better pick. We didn't need a starting 4. We needed a starting PG.

[AtLaS]

How can you bring Shelden into this argument? Conley is shooting 41.8% from 3 as a second year player. His EFG% on jumpers is 50.1%, the same as Bibby.

Because lots of players have put up stats on sorry teams at the end of the season. Conley's shooting is impressive, as I've already said.

Why does playing on a crap team help Conley's percentages when it didn't help Smith's or Marvin's?

I don't understand why you're making this argument. I have already said that Conley's three point shooting this season was impressive. That doesn't mean he was a better pick than Horford nor does it mean that he will be an overall better player.

If Conley and Horford turn out to be roughly equal as players that means for sure Conley was a better pick. We didn't need a starting 4. We needed a starting PG.

If they are roughly equal than Horford will have the higher trade value since he's a big man, and capable of playing the 5.

[EazyRoc]

Horford does draw double teams occassionally. He drew a few last night, but more often than not he doesn't. Horford will never be an outstanding offensive player without a player to get him easy baskets. You put Chris Paul on this roster and it wouldn't be absurd for one to expect him to average around 18 ppg. He's an excellent finisher, and does take people off the dribble. He'll come from the baseline and do an ugly looking hook as he passes the basket, and he does that often whenever he's looking to score. To say Horford is often defended by the worst interior defenders is screams vendetta.

[exodus]

Because lots of players have put up stats on sorry teams at the end of the season. Conley's shooting is impressive, as I've already said.

Shelden put up 11.6/10.6 over only 9 games. That hardly qualifies as big numbers and it was over only 9 games.

Conley is averaging 14.8/5.6 over his last 32 games. That is a much bigger sample size obviously, not to mention that he is only 3 years removed from high school. He didn't start playing over 30 minutes per game until Feb.

If they are roughly equal than Horford will have the higher trade value since he's a big man, and capable of playing the 5.

The question at hand isn't trade value. The question is value to the Hawks. We still need a center and we have no idea who our starting pg will be next year.

Edited April 10, 2009 by exodus

[AtLaS]

14.8 and 5.6 are respectable numbers, but when given 36+ minutes per game they aren't that great. And certainly not good enough to say we screwed up by taking Horford IMO.

I think the real issue is Law over Stuckey, not Horford over Conley. A Horford/Stuckey draft would be the best case scenario IMO, and better than a Conley/Stuckey one.

We'll see what happens with these players in the future.

But, I still want to see Acie given the green light and plenty of minutes. Acie hasn't been given that chance because he's on a playoff team, although, he was playing well when starting before the idiot Ryan Hollins hurt him. Regardless, it's usually a confidence booster when a player is allowed to play through their mistakes and many times the person will play much better because they aren't constantly looking over their shoulder. Prior to that Conley was still getting 25+ minutes and wasn't playing that great (although shooting threes well) but didn't start to improve until given tons of minutes.

[exodus]

14.8 and 5.6 are respectable numbers, but when given 36+ minutes per game they aren't that great. And certainly not good enough to say we screwed up by taking Horford IMO.

I guess Bibby's numbers aren't that great.

11/9 over 33 minutes isn't that great either, especially considering he is two years older and has gotten big minutes from day one.

[AtLaS]

I guess Bibby's numbers aren't that great.

They aren't.

11/9 over 33 minutes isn't that great either, especially considering he is two years older and has gotten big minutes from day one.

Conley is younger but it's not like Horford is old, he's 22. He has much room for improvement and I think he could definitely get to 15+ ppg on 50% shooting in the future.

Edited April 10, 2009 by AtLaS

[exodus]

They aren't.

Conley is younger but it's not like Horford is old, he's 22. He has much room for improvement and I think he could definitely get to 15+ ppg on 50% shooting in the future.

So you can say that Conley's and Bibby's numbers arent that great but you can't acknowlege the same is true of Horford?

[AtLaS]

So you can say that Conley's and Bibby's numbers arent that great but you can't acknowlege the same is true of Horford?

I know Horford's numbers are pedestrian. My point is that Conley's going to have to do a lot better than he has been to make me think we truly made a mistake.