Josh Smith:I'm going to keep taking jumpers

[Plainview1981]

http://www.ajc.com/sports/atlanta-hawks/smith-plans-to-keep-394824.html

So he is purposely going to take shots he knows he can't make. If he continues to do this under the next coach he should get traded.

[Deeman]

I think fans should just accept the fact that Smoove will never stop shooting jumpers. I don't necesarily like it but it is what it is. It could be worse atleast he cut down on the 3's.

[TheTruth]

Josh shoots 63% when in the lane, 37% on jumpers. The problem is, those jumpers are very low percentage shots...it makes it even worse because the vast majority of those jumpers are taken when he is wide-open...the defense sags off of him on the perimeter when he winds up to throw one up. He keeps hoisting them up even though he is much, much better at the rim. And now, we don't get the added benefit of an extra point if he DOES in fact manage to sink one. The mere fact that no one has shown him these numbers is beyond stupid. I mean, what do the coaches and other personnel do? When the reporter told him of those stats, Smoove replied, "It's all good...it will get better." No Smoove, it isn't. Stay your butt in the lane.

Smoove is having one heckuva season...but this is just one area (shot selection) that could use some improvement.

[AHawks89]

Why in the hell would you trade Josh Smith...? :thumbsdownsmileyanim:

Come on, now...

[thecampster]

http://www.ajc.com/sports/atlanta-hawks/smith-plans-to-keep-394824.html

So he is purposely going to take shots he knows he can't make. If he continues to do this under the next coach he should get traded.

Audible sigh. That's it...just an audible sigh.

this year with Josh on the court (2245 minutes), we've outscored our opponents by 406 points.

this year with Josh off the court (850 minutes), we've been outscored by our opponents by 115 points.

So the math...per game this season, we are +6.55 points with Josh on the floor (in 36 minutes), -1.85 without him on the floor (13,7 minutes).

The math is clear, you are a better team with Josh Smith on the floor. Every minute he is on the floor you are .18 points better than your opponent. On the bench, you are .135 points per minute worse. Any you want to trade him over shooting 37% on jumpers. He's taking 5 jumpers per game. Shooting 37%. That's 3.7 points per game. If he shot 50% on jumpers that would be 5 points per game. Are you really wanting to trade someone that makes you that much better over 1.3 points on jumpers a game.

[thecampster]

Audible sigh. That's it...just an audible sigh.

this year with Josh on the court (2245 minutes), we've outscored our opponents by 406 points.

this year with Josh off the court (850 minutes), we've been outscored by our opponents by 115 points.

So the math...per game this season, we are +6.55 points with Josh on the floor (in 36 minutes), -1.85 without him on the floor (13,7 minutes).

The math is clear, you are a better team with Josh Smith on the floor. Every minute he is on the floor you are .18 points better than your opponent. On the bench, you are .135 points per minute worse. Any you want to trade him over shooting 37% on jumpers. He's taking 5 jumpers per game. Shooting 37%. That's 3.7 points per game. If he shot 50% on jumpers that would be 5 points per game. Are you really wanting to trade someone that makes you that much better over 1.3 points on jumpers a game.

http://www.82games.com/0910/0910ATL.HTM

The players simple production rating.

Josh.Smith 73% 24.4 17.9 +6.5 +8.7 -6.5 +15.2 +9.9

Horford 73% 21.2 16.4 +4.8 +8.5 -6.0 +14.5 +8.6

Johnson 79% 21.2 14.2 +7.0 +6.3 -2.3 +8.6 +7.6

[Guest]

I think fans should just accept the fact that Smoove will never stop shooting jumpers. I don't necesarily like it but it is what it is. It could be worse atleast he cut down on the 3's.

Shooting 37% on jumpers leads to expected point value of .74 points per shot. If you take Josh's career average of 26.6% for 3 pointers, this leads to expected point value of .798 points per shot. Given that Josh Smith will shoot, its better that he shoots a 3 than a long 2.

[exodus]

Shooting 37% on jumpers leads to expected point value of .74 points per shot. If you take Josh's career average of 26.6% for 3 pointers, this leads to expected point value of .798 points per shot. Given that Josh Smith will shoot, its better that he shoots a 3 than a long 2.

What a joke.

Smith is taking 10% less jumpers overall this year than last year. He is getting more offensive rebounds. He is scoring more inside. All of this can be directly attributed to the fact that he isn't hanging out at the 3 pt line.

Edited March 23, 2010 by exodus

[mrhonline]

What HF is saying is that if Josh is going to pop out to near the 3pt line, he might as well move back a couple of extra feet so that the occasional hit will be worth an extra point.

[Plainview1981]

Audible sigh. That's it...just an audible sigh.

this year with Josh on the court (2245 minutes), we've outscored our opponents by 406 points.

this year with Josh off the court (850 minutes), we've been outscored by our opponents by 115 points.

So the math...per game this season, we are +6.55 points with Josh on the floor (in 36 minutes), -1.85 without him on the floor (13,7 minutes).

The math is clear, you are a better team with Josh Smith on the floor. Every minute he is on the floor you are .18 points better than your opponent. On the bench, you are .135 points per minute worse. Any you want to trade him over shooting 37% on jumpers. He's taking 5 jumpers per game. Shooting 37%. That's 3.7 points per game. If he shot 50% on jumpers that would be 5 points per game. Are you really wanting to trade someone that makes you that much better over 1.3 points on jumpers a game.

Ah hell I know that. But it's annoying that he knows he is hurting the team with his poor jump shooting and yet he continues to do it. It makes me understand why some are annoyed with today's NBA players.

Edited March 23, 2010 by Hotlanta1981

[exodus]

What HF is saying is that if Josh is going to pop out to near the 3pt line, he might as well move back a couple of extra feet so that the occasional hit will be worth an extra point.

Basketball isn't played in a vacuum. When Smith is behind the 3 pt line there are other things going on besides his expected value should he take a shot.

Besides shooting 26% from 3 equates to 39% from 2. That 2% difference doesn't amount to a hill of beans.

[mrhonline]

Basketball isn't played in a vacuum. When Smith is behind the 3 pt line there are other things going on besides his expected value should he take a shot.

Besides shooting 26% from 3 equates to 39% from 2. That 2% difference doesn't amount to a hill of beans.

He's shooting 28.5% on long, 2-pt jumpers:

http://www.hoopdata.com/shotstats.aspx?team=ATL&type=tot&posi=%&yr=2010&gp=0&mins=0

His career average on 3pt shots is 26.6%, which equates to a 2pt% of 39.9%. Having him shoot the long two instead of the three has cost the Hawks ~21 points this season.

Not a huge difference, but one there's not really any logical reason for...

[exodus]

He's shooting 28.5% on long, 2-pt jumpers:

http://www.hoopdata.com/shotstats.aspx?team=ATL&type=tot&posi=%&yr=2010&gp=0&mins=0

His career average on 3pt shots is 26.6%, which equates to a 2pt% of 39.9%. Having him shoot the long two instead of the three has cost the Hawks ~21 points this season.

Not a huge difference, but one there's not really any logical reason for...

That is wrong. There is more going on between just the difference between a long two and a 3. When he is inside the line he is more likely to get an offensive rebound, drive to the basket, get fouled, etc. Basketball is played on a court not a chalkboard. It is no coincidence that he is scoring inside more and getting more offensive rebounds.

Smiths EFG% on all shots is 51.3%. Last year it was 49.2%. Why is his EFG% better if it is advantageous to shoot 3s?

Not only that playing inside more forces the defense to account for him. That has led to a huge increase in his assist total, from 2.4 to 4.2. He is also getting to the line more.

Why don't Amare and Boozer shoot 3s? They are much better jump shooters than Smith.

Edited March 23, 2010 by exodus

[frankthetank966]

http://www.ajc.com/sports/atlanta-hawks/smith-plans-to-keep-394824.html

So he is purposely going to take shots he knows he can't make. If he continues to do this under the next coach he should get traded.

Are you serious? Trade Josh Smith? He is under contract for 3+ years at a very reasonable price. He is playing PF spot, and should be a SF. He has matured this year beyond anyones expectations and wants to become a leader of this team. Too be honest, I do not mind him taking 2-3 jump shots a game. And it's not like he has been forcing them. For instance, last night he took it because the shot clock was winding down and he was wide open. Fri. night vs. CHA he took the 3 because shot clock was expiring again. Trading smoove would be dumb.

[mrhonline]

That is wrong. There is more going on between just the difference between a long two and a 3. When he is inside the line he is more likely to get an offensive rebound, drive to the basket, get fouled, etc. Basketball is played on a court not a chalkboard. It is no coincidence that he is scoring inside more and getting more offensive rebounds.

Ex, you're misunderstanding. What we're comparing here is the difference between an open 16-23' jumpshot and an open 3 pt. shot. The likelihood of getting an offensive rebound in either situation is minimal.

Smith is specifically placed a few feet inside the three-point line. What I'm suggesting is that if he's being asked to be that far from the basket, why not have him at the 3 pt. line? The incentive is an extra point every time he hits a shot. I'm not suggesting he take more perimeter shots. I'm suggesting he replace the 22' shot with a 23' 9" shot.

Based on his quotes, Smith seems to think that it's okay to take long jumpshots, but not three-point shots. That makes little sense. It would be best if he took neither one, but if he must take one, the 3-pt. shot is more rewarding.

Edited March 23, 2010 by mrhonline

[JackB1]

The problem is he always decides to do it at a crucial point in the game, with less than 5 mins left. It's almost guaranteed. He did it again last night.

I just don't understand it. Why would you take a jump shot with Joe, Bibby, Jamal, Marvin all standing around as better jump shot options.

This article is very disturbing. Josh saying he will keep taking them because "they are just there".

THERE IS A REASON WHY THE DEFENSE LEAVES HIM OPEN!!!!

Some other troubling quotes:

"said he hasn’t looked at his percentage on outside shots. Told about the poor numbers, he shrugged them off.

“It’s all good,” he said. “It will get better.”

"Smith said coach Mike Woodson doesn’t ride him about his shot selection “because he knows I play hard at both ends."

“But when I knock down a jumper, he doesn’t say anything,” Smith said.

Edited March 23, 2010 by JackB1

[mrhonline]

BTW, in an email to me, Michael Cunningham (AJC) said he thinks the Hawks' staff would prefer that Smith pass up both the long 2 and the 3.

This is all on Josh, it seems.

[exodus]

Ex, you're misunderstanding. What we're comparing here is the difference between an open 16-23' jumpshot and an open 3 pt. shot. The likelihood of getting an offensive rebound in either situation is minimal.

Smith is specifically placed a few feet inside the three-point line. What I'm suggesting is that if he's being asked to be that far from the basket, why not have him at the 3 pt. line? The incentive is an extra point every time he hits a shot. I'm not suggesting he take more perimeter shots. I'm suggesting he replace the 22' shot with a 23' 9" shot.

Based on his quotes, Smith seems to think that it's okay to take long jumpshots, but not three-point shots. That makes little sense. It would be best if he took neither one, but if he must take one, the 3-pt. shot is more rewarding.

We have already seen what happens when he was behind the 3 pt line. We know how that story goes. I don't see how this is confusing.

When he is behind the line he is less likely to cut to the basket, drive, get offensive rebounds etc and is more likely to take perimeter shots. Last year 47% of his shots were jumpers. This year 37% of his shots are jumpers. This can be directly attributed to Smith getting off the 3 pt line. It isn't like Woody suddenly changed his offense.

This year Smith hasn't made a 3 yet his EFG% is at a career high. He is also setting career highs for offensive rebounds and assists. There is NO REASON for him to be behind the 3 pt line.

Edited March 23, 2010 by exodus

[JackB1]

There is NO REASON for him to be behind the 3 pt line.

There is no reason for him to be anywhere that is more than 15 feet from the basket.

Smith also keep insisting on playing point guard several times a night, which is also frustrating.

I don't know why Woody allows him to do as he pleases just because "he plays hard at both ends of the court".

Why would you give up ANYTHING on the court to the other team?

[exodus]

There is no reason for him to be anywhere that is more than 15 feet from the basket.

Smith also keep insisting on playing point guard several times a night, which is also frustrating.

I don't know why Woody allows him to do as he pleases just because "he plays hard at both ends of the court".

Why would you give up ANYTHING on the court to the other team?

Woody is horrible, but that is a different subject.