Kudos J Smoove!

[JTB]

We all should appreciate this from smith. personally this just tells me that smith wants to get better and help his team! now he needs to work on some post moves and his attitude!

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BBR Mailbag: Biggest Yearly Declines in 3-Point Attempts

Posted by Neil Paine on July 30, 2010

This is a question from Erik, who writes:

"I noticed the rather severe change in Josh Smith's 3-pt attempts from the last several seasons to the one that just wrapped up. After attempting 87 3's last year, 99 the year before and a cringe inducing 152 in '06-'07, Smith only attempted 7 3's in '09-'10. I was curious if you knew of any other players who had experienced such an attack in common sense? It seems like a huge drop off and a decision made for the betterment of the club. He played more games & minutes, had more shot attempts total, scored more points and did it all while basically eliminating the 3-pt shot from his game. Thoughts?"

From 2006 (his second NBA season) though 2009, Josh Smith attempted a 3-pointer on 12% of his field goal attempts -- despite the fact that he made just 27% of them, a rate 9 percentage points worse than the league average. And then, suddenly, he stopped shooting them: in 2010, threes didn't even make up 1% of his FGA (he went 0 for 7 on the year). In other words, apparently Smith finally got the message that he wasn't good at the 3-ball, and he abandoned it completely. How unprecedented is this? Here are the biggest single-year declines in 3-point tendency (3PA/FGA), relative to the league average, since 1981:

Season Previous

Rank Player Year Age Team 3pTend 3FG% 3pTend 3FG% Diff

1 Brian Cook 2006 25 LAL -3.8% 7.0% 27.5% 3.6% -31.3%

2 Devin Harris 2006 22 DAL -15.0% -12.0% 16.2% -2.0% -31.2%

3 Keyon Dooling 2004 23 LAC -5.6% -17.3% 24.1% 1.0% -29.7%

4 Greg Anthony 2002 34 TOT 16.2% -5.9% 45.8% 5.5% -29.7%

5 Darrell Armstrong 1998 29 ORL 1.9% 2.2% 31.3% -5.6% -29.3%

6 Ron Harper 1998 34 CHI -3.3% -15.5% 25.1% 0.2% -28.4%

7 Michael Curry 1998 29 MIL -13.8% 9.9% 13.7% -6.1% -27.5%

8 John Salmons 2006 26 PHI -3.5% -5.9% 23.7% -1.5% -27.3%

9 Jamaal Tinsley 2005 26 IND 10.3% 1.6% 37.2% 2.5% -27.0%

10 Derek Fisher 2003 28 LAL 9.2% 5.1% 34.3% 5.9% -25.1%

11 Greg Buckner 2007 30 DAL 13.2% -4.8% 38.0% -0.4% -24.8%

12 Earl Watson 2008 28 SEA -4.5% 0.9% 19.5% -3.0% -24.0%

13 Tyrone Nesby 2002 26 WAS -7.0% -7.7% 17.0% -8.1% -23.9%

14 Dale Ellis 1987 26 SEA 10.5% 5.7% 33.0% 8.2% -22.6%

15 Muggsy Bogues 1998 33 TOT -11.0% -9.6% 11.3% 5.7% -22.3%

16 Nick Anderson 1998 30 ORL 12.4% 1.4% 34.7% -0.7% -22.3%

17 Kyle Korver 2007 25 PHI 15.1% 7.2% 37.3% 6.2% -22.2%

18 Craig Hodges 1991 30 CHI 25.2% 6.3% 47.1% 15.0% -21.9%

19 Yi Jianlian 2010 22 NJN -14.9% 1.1% 5.6% -2.4% -20.5%

20 Quentin Richardson 2006 25 NYK 20.7% -1.8% 40.8% 0.3% -20.0%

…

233 Josh Smith 2010 24 ATL -21.5% -35.5% -12.2% -6.8% -9.4%

Viewed this way, Smith's transformation was not very rare in NBA history. However, Smith wasn't a mere role player like most of the names on that list -- he was big name, playing more than 2,000 minutes in both 2009 and 2010, and taking more than 800 shots each season. As a percentage of his shots, the difference wasn't huge, but Smith's change is far more unprecedented when you look at the decline in his raw 3-point attempts.

Among players who played at least 2000 MP in back-to-back seasons, Smith was actually the very first player in NBA history to go from taking 80+ 3-pointers to taking under 10 the following year (the previous record for fewest 3PA the year after an 80-attempt season was Derrick McKey in 1990, who went from taking 89 to taking 23). This was a very good thing for both Smith and the Hawks -- by cutting back on his threes, he turned into a more efficient player (109.4 ORtg vs. 103.5 in 2009), a more willing passer (he passed on 57% of his touches instead of 43%), a better offensive rebounder (9.0 ORb% vs. 6.5 in 2009), and the Atlanta offense improved to become the NBA's 2nd-best during the regular season.

The moral of the story: It's amazing what cutting out a gratuitous, inefficient aspect of your game can do.

link:http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7113

Edited August 2, 2010 by JTB

[niremetal]

Among players who played at least 2000 MP in back-to-back seasons, Smith was actually the very first player in NBA history to go from taking 80+ 3-pointers to taking under 10 the following year (the previous record for fewest 3PA the year after an 80-attempt season was Derrick McKey in 1990, who went from taking 89 to taking 23). This was a very good thing for both Smith and the Hawks -- by cutting back on his threes, he turned into a more efficient player (109.4 ORtg vs. 103.5 in 2009), a more willing passer (he passed on 57% of his touches instead of 43%), a better offensive rebounder (9.0 ORb% vs. 6.5 in 2009), and the Atlanta offense improved to become the NBA's 2nd-best during the regular season.

The moral of the story: It's amazing what cutting out a gratuitous, inefficient aspect of your game can do.

WOW is that atrocious logic. Because all of those other things happened in the same season that Josh started taking fewer 3s, they must have been caused by him taking fewer 3s?? Statistics 101: Correlation does not imply causation.

I'd be a lot more impressed by Josh taking fewer 3s last year if he hadn't had a 20% increase in the number of long 2s he took and had a 15% drop in his accuracy on those long 2s. To my eye, it seemed that more of his midrange jumpers came from 19-22 feet. At that range, you might as well step back and take the damned 3. His EFG% actually went very slightly down last season.

Josh did improve drastically on offense last year. But I attribute that to 1) his greatly improved passing (this was HUGE) and 2) his increased aggressiveness at taking the ball to the rim when he got the ball in the post. In '08-'09, he seemed a bit more hesitant in the post, probably because he was missing so many free throws; this year, that went away. But I do not count his trading in the 3 for more long 2s as a great victory.

Edited August 3, 2010 by niremetal

[KB21]

Now if he will just stop taking long two point jumpers.

[Randy]

Another thing I can't figure is Josh Smith's free throw percentage. His first four years in the NBA he shot right at 70% FT. Not great, but pretty good.

Last two years, he drops to 60% which is pretty bad. So bad that you worry late in the game when he goes to the line, or when he gets a chance of an and one, you figure its an and zero. I can't see how a 70% FT shooter becomes a 60% FT shooter. Maybe he realized that since he couldn't even hit free throws very well, he should stop throwing up 3 pointers.

[buckeye242424]

Another thing I can't figure is Josh Smith's free throw percentage. His first four years in the NBA he shot right at 70% FT. Not great, but pretty good.

Last two years, he drops to 60% which is pretty bad. So bad that you worry late in the game when he goes to the line, or when he gets a chance of an and one, you figure its an and zero. I can't see how a 70% FT shooter becomes a 60% FT shooter. Maybe he realized that since he couldn't even hit free throws very well, he should stop throwing up 3 pointers.

I think it's the 6 inches between the ears. Either he lost confidence in his FT's, or he stopping practicing them...my belief it's not the latter. When you have your own fans, hometown fans, yelling "NOOO!!" everytime you have the ball outside the 3pt. line or even 18 feet away, the confidence shooting anything outside the paint has to be tainted. Even free throw's.

He's under the impression that he can't shoot. The stats suggest that, obviously. But FT's, he's been doing that since he started playing basketball? I think it's mental. He's got a little Nick Anderson in him, not as severe, but it's in his head.

[niremetal]

Another thing I can't figure is Josh Smith's free throw percentage. His first four years in the NBA he shot right at 70% FT. Not great, but pretty good.

Last two years, he drops to 60% which is pretty bad. So bad that you worry late in the game when he goes to the line, or when he gets a chance of an and one, you figure its an and zero. I can't see how a 70% FT shooter becomes a 60% FT shooter. Maybe he realized that since he couldn't even hit free throws very well, he should stop throwing up 3 pointers.

I think the free throws are a less-serious, basketball version of Steve Blass Disease (known in Atlanta circles as Mark Wohlers Syndrome; recent acquisition Rick Ankiel suffered from the same affliction). Josh seems to do pretty well at the line for long stretches. Then he'll miss a couple and psych himself out, and the next thing you know he's 3 for his last 10 from the line.

Edited August 3, 2010 by niremetal

[JackB1]

It took Josh 4 years as a Pro to realize he's the worst 3 pt shooter in the NBA. Let's throw the guy a party!

Most guys realize what they do best before they even get to the NBA. You think Zaza was shooting 3 pointers

in High School?

Now how about stopping all the other things you do that hurt the team, like:

-arguing EVERY non foul call

-playing D only when in the mood

-walking back up the court on D

-taking long jumpers

-handling the ball on the break with your point guard calling for the ball

-never boxing out for rebounds

-horrendous free throw shooting

Edited August 3, 2010 by JackB1

[foeteen14]

the thing that is crazy, is that josh was actually a good shooter in high school, i remember seeing him play (the time i realized i wanted him on the hawks), and he was nothing but net on long range shots. then he gets to the nba and his rookie season, he can barely hit the rim. makes me think that he either changed something in his shot for some reason, or the transition to the nba somehow screwed up his confidence in his shot. that's why he shot so many outside shots. he knows he used to make them. gotta be frustrating

[foeteen14]

It took Josh 4 years as a Pro to realize he's the worst 3 pt shooter in the NBA. Let's throw the guy a party!

Most guys realize what they do best before they even get to the NBA. You think Zaza was shooting 3 pointers

in High School?

Now how about stopping all the other things you do that hurt the team, like:

-arguing EVERY non foul call

will come with maturity, maybe marriage is a step in the right direction.

-playing D only when in the mood

also with maturity, and the realization that a championship is the ultimate goal.

-walking back up the court on D

see above

-taking long jumpers

many times he was the victim of woody's non-offense. how many coaches keep their pf waaaayyyy out on the perimeter. hopefully the new offense eliminates this.

-handling the ball on the break with your point guard calling for the ball

this i disagree with. u shouldn't want to take away his aggressiveness. even so, he has started making better decisions and that will continue

-never boxing out for rebounds

with continued coaching and maturity he will learn to use technique and not just athleticism

-horrendous free throw shooting

don't know how to improve this. nba players that can't shoot free throw is an enigma to me.

maybe i'm a little too positive about what josh can become, but i do believe he will eventually put it all together