Aight cut the bull we are not contenders, how can we get D12 in 2012?

[MaceCase]

I think people really overestimate how in control New York was. Carmelo was going to get his extension and would not have gone into FA to join the Knicks, IMO. Obviously, he cared much more about getting his extension than joining a more competitive team. If New York wouldn't trade for him, I think Carmelo would have been insulted since they would have been costing him millions and he would have gone elsewhere. I don't have anything more on that than my gut feeling and the fact that Carmelo deliberately tried to up the pressure on New York to trade for him with the extension by meeting with NJ, by saying he might stay with Denver, etc. IMO, Carmelo was more the driver in this process than the Knicks.

That assumes that Carmelo was all that important to the Knicks in the first place. Under the original Walsh plan he had always intended on a three star roster. If he did not have the outright cap to get the 3rd then he'd at least have the valuable prospects and assets to try and get it done. If it wasn't Carmelo then it would be Deron, Paul, or Dwight oh whomever would arise of the possible 2012 RFA's such as Rose. Because his owner called in Isiah and caved the Knicks gave up both the cap and a great number of assets just to appease Melo and not be "scooped" by their crosstown rivals. I say this also because if there was an overriding demand to get Melo from the beginning then NY would of pulled the trigger much earlier when negotiations first began rather than waiting all the way to the deadline. So what if Carmelo is mad he didn't get his money, the team still had plenty of options of improving without him. A worthy franchise doesn't compromise themselves so as to allow a singular player to get all he wants. You'd think people would of learned from Gilbert and all of his enabling of Lebron and his cronies.

It makes a huge difference if Dwight wants to maximize his contract, just like with Carmelo. If Howard is traded to us, he can get his max contract. If he goes into FA, he would need to accept losing some amount of money which makes the deal less likely to happen.

It also makes a huge difference if you swing and miss on Dwight.

Finally, we would actually have to give up assets to get rid of all our high priced contracts to get under the cap. It isn't like we could just drop JJ & Marvin. Once you make those moves, you then have no guarantee whether you can sign Dwight as a FA. With a trade, you don't give up those assets until you have Dwight in hand.

So I don't view the trade and FA possibilities as nearly identical.

I don't really see the difference because I am looking at this under the notion that others have stated that he wants to come back to Atlanta at all costs to play with Smoove. Dwight is a superstar so the move back to a larger market and the whatever difference between a Bird rights contract and FA contract would not be a back breaker for him. Also forgetting that whatever deal Dwight signs will be underneath the terms of the new CBA regardless, there isn't a case that his contract offer will depress dramatically like there was for Melo.

If the team had the cap to sign him outright Orlando would also most definitely still engage in a sign and trade so at the minimum they generate a TPE just like Phoenix, Toronto and Cleveland did despite all of their negative feelings towards their FA leaving.

At the chance you strike out on Dwight you'd still have money to go after other targets and if that fails you can absorb deals in trades so it's not necessarily the end of the world unless Dwight was your end all be all.

In a trade scenario Orlando holds all the leverage though and can demand whoever they want back and whoever they want for us to take back if both the Hawks and Dwight absolutely and positively must be made a pair. I'm just not seeing how the trade route is all that different, quite frankly. You either gut the roster and have just a chance at Dwight or you gut the roster and have Dwight+Hedo/Arenas. Either way you are limiting the teams ability to improve itself by having such a narrow desire (getting Dwight at all cost) with even narrower parameters (Smoove must remain on the roster at all cost) set to get it done.

Surely either plan can't be all that attractive to you, AHF, to be arguing the merits for any particular one?

Edited March 29, 2011 by CrawfulToCrawesome

[AHF]

That assumes that Carmelo was all that important to the Knicks in the first place. Under the original Walsh plan he had always intended on a three star roster. If he did not have the outright cap to get the 3rd then he'd at least have the valuable prospects and assets to try and get it done. If it wasn't Carmelo then it would be Deron, Paul, or Dwight oh whomever would arise of the possible 2012 RFA's such as Rose. Because his owner called in Isiah and caved the Knicks gave up both the cap and a great number of assets just to appease Melo and not be "scooped" by their crosstown rivals. I say this also because if there was an overriding demand to get Melo from the beginning then NY would of pulled the trigger much earlier when negotiations first began rather than waiting all the way to the deadline. So what if Carmelo is mad he didn't get his money, the team still had plenty of options of improving without him. A worthy franchise doesn't compromise themselves so as to allow a singular player to get all he wants. You'd think people would of learned from Gilbert and all of his enabling of Lebron and his cronies.

They gave up more potential for more certainty under the "bird in the hand..." theory. I would have targeted Deron Williams from the beginning if I were NY and never would have gone after Carmelo. As they committed themselves to Carmelo, I think they had to do a trade to get that done because Carmelo was going to take care of his pocketbook.

I don't really see the difference because I am looking at this under the notion that others have stated that he wants to come back to Atlanta at all costs to play with Smoove.

Agreed. If you assume that, then there is no risk of him walking in free agency so other than a question of whether you can clear the contracts this eliminates the primary risk that I am not willing to write off - that Dwight might change his mind if we get rid of JJ, Horford, Marvin, etc. to clear room for him.

Dwight is a superstar so the move back to a larger market and the whatever difference between a Bird rights contract and FA contract would not be a back breaker for him. Also forgetting that whatever deal Dwight signs will be underneath the terms of the new CBA regardless, there isn't a case that his contract offer will depress dramatically like there was for Melo.

It is something that remains to be seen with the new CBA. Teams may have even larger advantages to resigning their own free agents under the new CBA which would mean that the cost for Dwight to walk would be larger than for someone walking in 2010.

If the team had the cap to sign him outright Orlando would also most definitely still engage in a sign and trade so at the minimum they generate a TPE just like Phoenix, Toronto and Cleveland did despite all of their negative feelings towards their FA leaving.

At the chance you strike out on Dwight you'd still have money to go after other targets and if that fails you can absorb deals in trades so it's not necessarily the end of the world unless Dwight was your end all be all.

In a trade scenario Orlando holds all the leverage though and can demand whoever they want back and whoever they want for us to take back if both the Hawks and Dwight absolutely and positively must be made a pair. I'm just not seeing how the trade route is all that different, quite frankly. You either gut the roster and have just a chance at Dwight or you gut the roster and have Dwight+Hedo/Arenas. Either way you are limiting the teams ability to improve itself by having such a narrow desire (getting Dwight at all cost) with even narrower parameters (Smoove must remain on the roster at all cost) set to get it done.

Surely either plan can't be all that attractive to you, AHF, to be arguing the merits for any particular one?

Getting Al Horford is all it would take, IMO. If you are doing a trade, you really aren't limiting yourself at all because you can always change your mind and trade Josh, etc. If you get rid of enough salary to get a max salary under the cap, however, I think the team would be where Indiana has been the last few years which isn't a pretty place to be.

IMO, an Al Horford + filler for Dwight Howard trade is very attractive (even though I am a big Al Horford fan). Gutting ourselves when Dwight could change his mind and go team up with Chris Paul, etc. is less attractive.

[Joker]

I don't understand why we can't trade Josh and still get Dwight... The NBA is still a business. You can't hang your hopes on the fact that two players may or may not want to buddy up.

The Miami situation is probably the out-lier here (I'm still dumbfounded how they got away with that).

I just rather have Horford and Dwight on floor together. They compliment each other well.

Our team isn't all that attractive without 2 of our big 3. That's the issue. No player is coming here with just one of Horford and Joe and Horford value is too high to trade for anything less than a top 3-5 player. Al Horford can become a superstar if you can land an elite playmaking PG. Smith has topped in the Shawn Marion range and Joe contract is too hard to move and to be honest, he's too good to move as well. He's a very good player, would be excellent with Dwight or CP3. Not so great as the man.

I say drop Sund, bring back BK.

I do not believe the Marvin and Shelden picks were his..

I believe he can move Joe/Marvin and menuever a way to land Dwight.

LOL, Marvin value is very low. The only way we can trade him is for a much worst player and contract like Gil or Turk and neither are even worth Marvin at this point. As I mention awhile back, Orlando will look to move one of these crazy contracts with Dwight's contract. Because of cap, it will be impossible to move both with Dwight as well.

[BusBoyIsBack]

When is the last time a superstar player voluntarily joined an Atlanta team that wasn't the Braves ?